College Bball Thread

[Class of '66 Old Fart 84,881]

Jeff Goodman -

Rhode Island coach Archie Miller has dismissed guard Brayon Freeman from the program. Freeman was averaging 14.3 points per game. Transferred from GW.

[Stuhoo 81,157]

2 minutes ago, Class of '66 Old Fart said:

Jeff Goodman -

Rhode Island coach Archie Miller has dismissed guard Brayon Freeman from the program. Freeman was averaging 14.3 points per game. Transferred from GW.

14.3 points per game? No wonder he was dismissed. That level of offense was giving Archie vertigo.

[Magnanimous 4,608]

#1 Alabama is taking on #10 Tennessee this week…in basketball.

 

[Uspshoosier 45,891]

6 minutes ago, HoosierAloha said:

KenPom

KenPom has it made.  His projections change throughout the year as more information is gathered and everyone uses them.   lucky for him no one holds him accountable for his early team projections.    IU is projected to finish 12-8 now but during their 1-3 stretch they were projected 9-11 and before the season they were projected like 14-6.    If IU beats northwestern that will change to 13-7.   

[Honkyman 1,670]

1 hour ago, Scotty R said:

We lost all of them due to not having any room on the roster for them

Then why was IU pursuing them so hard? If 5 IU starters either complete their eligibility or move on and one or two more transfer after this season, there will be a lot of room on the roster. 

[RaceToTheTop 25,953]

33 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

KenPom has it made.  His projections change throughout the year as more information is gathered and everyone uses them.   lucky for him no one holds him accountable for his early team projections.    IU is projected to finish 12-8 now but during their 1-3 stretch they were projected 9-11 and before the season they were projected like 14-6.    If IU beats northwestern that will change to 13-7.   

The same could be said for pretty much every ranking system, though.  Rankings/ratings change as more data points and results are added.

Looking at rankings multiple ways right now:

Big Ten Pom rank/Sagarin/NET

• Purdue 1 / 1 / 1
• Rutgers 2 / 4 / 3
• Indiana 3 / 3 / 2
• Illinois 4 / 2 / 4 
• Maryland 5 / 5 / 5
• Michigan St 6 / 7 / 6
• Iowa 7 / 6 / 7
• Northwestern 8 / 9 / 8
• Ohio St 9 / 10 / 9
• Michigan 10 / 8 / 11 
• Penn St 11 / 11 / 10
• Wisconsin 12 / 12 / 12
• Nebraska 13 / 13 / 13
• Minnesota 14 / 14 / 14

 

[Demo 20,237]

36 minutes ago, Stuhoo said:

14.3 points per game? No wonder he was dismissed. That level of offense was giving Archie vertigo.

Shot 43% at GW last year and 37% at URI this year. The Archie magic on full display.

[Loaded Chicken Sandwich 8,694]

1 minute ago, RaceToTheTop said:

The same could be said for pretty much every ranking system, though.  Rankings/ratings change as more data points and results are added.

Looking at rankings multiple ways right now:

Big Ten Pom rank/Sagarin/NET

• Purdue 1 / 1 / 1
• Rutgers 2 / 4 / 3
• Indiana 3 / 3 / 2
• Illinois 4 / 2 / 4 
• Maryland 5 / 5 / 5
• Michigan St 6 / 7 / 6
• Iowa 7 / 6 / 7
• Northwestern 8 / 9 / 8
• Ohio St 9 / 10 / 9
• Michigan 10 / 8 / 11 
• Penn St 11 / 11 / 10
• Wisconsin 12 / 12 / 12
• Nebraska 13 / 13 / 13
• Minnesota 14 / 14 / 14

 

Ohio State without a doubt the biggest outlier probably. They are freaking terrible. 

[RaceToTheTop 25,953]

24 minutes ago, Loaded Chicken Sandwich said:

Ohio State without a doubt the biggest outlier probably. They are freaking terrible. 

On Pom/Sagarin -- where it's not about wins and losses but point differential and who you played -- they don't rank out as horrible.  Even at 3-11 in conference, they are only getting outscored by about 3 1/2 ppg in conference games.  So their efficiency doesn't look bad.

I love Pom ratings, Sagarin, pretty much every rating system but you have to understand what they are measuring, and it's not wins and losses.  It's part of the reason I started my WAR ratings (other than for shits and giggles) -- in my WAR system, I don't care about point differential, only who you played, where you played them, and whether you won or lost.  And my system hates Ohio State -- has them at a -3.30.  Only team worse in the Big Ten is Minnesota.  Basically says that if Ohio State were a tournament team, they would be 15-10 or better right now based on their schedule, but at 11-14 -- regardless of how close they lost games -- they are pretty bad.

 

[Loaded Chicken Sandwich 8,694]

9 minutes ago, RaceToTheTop said:

On Pom/Sagarin -- where it's not about wins and losses but point differential and who you played -- they don't rank out as horrible.  Even at 3-11 in conference, they are only getting outscored by about 3 1/2 ppg in conference games.  So their efficiency doesn't look bad.

I love Pom ratings, Sagarin, pretty much every rating system but you have to understand what they are measuring, and it's not wins and losses.  It's part of the reason I started my WAR ratings (other than for shits and giggles) -- in my WAR system, I don't care about point differential, only who you played, where you played them, and whether you won or lost.  And my system hates Ohio State -- has them at a -3.30.  Only team worse in the Big Ten is Minnesota.  Basically says that if Ohio State were a tournament team, they would be 15-10 or better right now based on their schedule, but at 11-14 -- regardless of how close they lost games -- they are pretty bad.

 

At some point a ratings system will have to come along that takes into losses. Especially a lot of losses. A game at Ohio State or even neutral is a Q1 win but it sure as hell isn't an impressive win by any means. 

[HoosierHoopster 7,055]

1 hour ago, Class of '66 Old Fart said:

Jeff Goodman -

Rhode Island coach Archie Miller has dismissed guard Brayon Freeman from the program. Freeman was averaging 14.3 points per game. Transferred from GW.

He scored too many points to Archie’s liking 

[RaceToTheTop 25,953]

29 minutes ago, Loaded Chicken Sandwich said:

At some point a ratings system will have to come along that takes into losses. Especially a lot of losses. A game at Ohio State or even neutral is a Q1 win but it sure as hell isn't an impressive win by any means. 

NET does, but it tries to combine some efficiency from what I understand (USPS can speak better to that).

[IUHoosierJoe 1,167]

1 hour ago, RaceToTheTop said:

On Pom/Sagarin -- where it's not about wins and losses but point differential and who you played -- they don't rank out as horrible.  Even at 3-11 in conference, they are only getting outscored by about 3 1/2 ppg in conference games.  So their efficiency doesn't look bad.

I love Pom ratings, Sagarin, pretty much every rating system but you have to understand what they are measuring, and it's not wins and losses.  It's part of the reason I started my WAR ratings (other than for shits and giggles) -- in my WAR system, I don't care about point differential, only who you played, where you played them, and whether you won or lost.  And my system hates Ohio State -- has them at a -3.30.  Only team worse in the Big Ten is Minnesota.  Basically says that if Ohio State were a tournament team, they would be 15-10 or better right now based on their schedule, but at 11-14 -- regardless of how close they lost games -- they are pretty bad.

 

My system has Ohio State #39 in the score-based metric and #170 in the result-based.  I've never seen that kind of differential, ever.  I'm sure most know this, but that differential is what Pomeroy measures in his "Luck" rating.  And of course, Ohio State is #363, lol.

[IUHoosierJoe 1,167]

1 hour ago, RaceToTheTop said:

On Pom/Sagarin -- where it's not about wins and losses but point differential and who you played -- they don't rank out as horrible.  Even at 3-11 in conference, they are only getting outscored by about 3 1/2 ppg in conference games.  So their efficiency doesn't look bad.

I love Pom ratings, Sagarin, pretty much every rating system but you have to understand what they are measuring, and it's not wins and losses.  It's part of the reason I started my WAR ratings (other than for shits and giggles) -- in my WAR system, I don't care about point differential, only who you played, where you played them, and whether you won or lost.  And my system hates Ohio State -- has them at a -3.30.  Only team worse in the Big Ten is Minnesota.  Basically says that if Ohio State were a tournament team, they would be 15-10 or better right now based on their schedule, but at 11-14 -- regardless of how close they lost games -- they are pretty bad.

 

Another thing about Sagarin's, I read an interview a few years ago where he said, in addition to making it entirely score-based, he leaves a percentage of his pre-season ratings in all the way to the end of the season because he found it predicted games even better that way.  So he is somewhat determining his "computer" ratings with his pre-season ratings.

[lillurk 3,756]

2 minutes ago, IUHoosierJoe said:

Another thing about Sagarin's, I read an interview a few years ago where he said, in additional to making it entirely score-based, he leaves a percentage of his pre-season ratings in all the way to the end of the season because he found it predicted games even better that way.  So he is somewhat determining his "computer" ratings with his pre-season ratings.

Yes, I believe Pomeroy said similarly on one of his appearances on the Solving Basketball pod. The reason is pretty straightforward: including the preseason rankings improves their predictive accuracy vs. removing them entirely

[IUHoosierJoe 1,167]

8 minutes ago, lillurk said:

Yes, I believe Pomeroy said similarly on one of his appearances on the Solving Basketball pod. The reason is pretty straightforward: including the preseason rankings improves their predictive accuracy vs. removing them entirely

I was under the impression that Pomeroy removes his pre-season rankings sometime in early January while Sagarin leaves at least a little percentage of his in for the entire season.  But in looking at North Carolina for example, who was ranked high in pre-season, Sagarin has them #28 now, which is higher than anybody else.  But Pomeroy has them #32, which is also pretty high compared to others.  So maybe Pomeroy is leaving in some pre-season ratings.   

[lillurk 3,756]

3 minutes ago, IUHoosierJoe said:

I was under the impression that Pomeroy removes his pre-season rankings sometime in early January while Sagarin leaves at least a little percentage of his in for the entire season.  But in looking at North Carolina for example, who was ranked high in pre-season, Sagarin has them #28 now, which is higher than anybody else.  But Pomeroy has them #32, which is also pretty high compared to others.  So maybe Pomeroy is leaving in some pre-season ratings.   

I may have it wrong, now that you mention it; I recall him talking about how it’s noticeable because teams make some jumps you wouldn’t expect based on not playing, for example

[AKHoosier 6,951]

What if Pete Nance misses out on the NCAAT because he transferred from Northwestern to North Carolina? 

If UNC keeps losing, that wouldn't be out of the realm of possibility would it?

That would be the ultimate case of irony in sports. 

[RaceToTheTop 25,953]

BTownBanners Top 25 poll (LCS/Joe/WAR)

• 1.  Alabama 22-3 (3 first place votes) -- 75 points
• 2.  Houston 23-2  -- (68)
• 3(tie) Purdue 23-3 -- (66)
• 3(tie) UCLA 21-4 -- (66)
• 5.  Texas 20-5 (63)
• 6.  Kansas 20-5 (62)
• 7.  Arizona 22-4 (54)
• 8.  Baylor 19-6 (51)
• 9.  Virginia 19-4 (49)
• 10. Gonzaga 20-5 (46)
• 11. Marquette 20-6 (42)
• 12. Kansas St 19-5 (39)
• 13. St. Mary's 20-6 (37)
• 14. Tennessee 19-6 (34)
• 15. Xavier 19-6 (32)
• 16. Indiana 18-7 (28)
• 17. San Diego St 19-5 (26)
• 18. Connecticutt 19-7 (25)
• 19. Florida Atlantic 20-2 (21)
• 20. Creighton 17-8 (18)
• 21. Miami (F) 20-5 (14)
• 22. Iowa State 16-8 (13)
• 23. Nevada 19-6 (11)
• 24. Texas A&M 18-7 (7)
• 25. Missouri 19-6 (6)

Also receiving votes:  Pittsburgh 18-7 (5), NC State 20-6 (4), Arkansas 17-8 (4), Michigan State 16-9 (3), Providence 18-7 (2), Oral Roberts 18-4 (2), TCU 17-8 (1), Utah State 18-7 (1).

[RaceToTheTop 25,953]

22 minutes ago, AKHoosier said:

What if Pete Nance misses out on the NCAAT because he transferred from Northwestern to North Carolina? 

If UNC keeps losing, that wouldn't be out of the realm of possibility would it?

That would be the ultimate case of irony in sports. 

If Pete Nance hits 19 of his next 16 three point shots, he'll match last year's totals.