College Bball Thread

[rcbowla]

8 B1G teams separated by 1 game. Just can't afford to lose.

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[HoosierAloha]

2 hours ago, Rico said:

Or tied, whichever is preferred.

[str8baller]

2 hours ago, cthomas said:

For that to work, Edey has to go out on the floor with him. More than likely Purdue will be happy to let TJD have whatever he wants away from the basket. I think Painter is too smart to challenge him away from the bucket.

Agreed. Which is why they’ll probably run a ton of pnr with JHS. If he’s on like in the Wisconsin game with his midrange game he’ll be huge. If he’s closer to the Minny game, our offense will stagnate.  They rotate well on defense and we don’t pass the ball quick enough to generate open looks by passing the ball around the perimeter.   
 

My guess is that the 15 footer is there all day long. Outside of JHS we don’t have anyone that excels there. Probably a game we miss XJ more than most. 

[RaceToTheTop]

35 minutes ago, rcs29 said:

8 B1G teams separated by 1 game. Just can't afford to lose.

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Going to be really tough.  Conference scheduling definitely not in IU's favor.

There are six teams in the conference that have a winning record in conference play (one is Indiana)IU plays each of those two teams two times. 

The conference records of IU's last ten opponent's are a combined 64-38 in conference play.  For comparison, IU's first ten conference opponents had an in conference record of 39-52.

Pom predicting IU to go 5-5 in the remaining ten games.  They rank the games from easiest to toughest:

• at Purdue (24% chance to win)
• at Maryland (45%)
• Purdue (46%)
• at Northwestern (49%) and at Michigan State (49%)
• at Michigan (58%)
• Rutgers (61%)
• Illinois (64%)
• Iowa (69%)
• Michigan (79%)

FWIW, Pom predicts the final conference standings to be:

• Purdue 16-4
• Rutgers 13-7
• Illinois 12-8
• Northwestern, Indiana, Michigan State, and Maryland 11-9
• Iowa and Penn State 10-10
• Michigan and Ohio State 9-11
• Wisconsin 8-12
• Nebraska 6-14
• Minnesota 3-17

[Stuhoo]

1 hour ago, RaceToTheTop said:

Going to be really tough.  Conference scheduling definitely not in IU's favor.

There are six teams in the conference that have a winning record in conference play (one is Indiana)IU plays each of those two teams two times. 

The conference records of IU's last ten opponent's are a combined 64-38 in conference play.  For comparison, IU's first ten conference opponents had an in conference record of 39-52.

Pom predicting IU to go 5-5 in the remaining ten games.  They rank the games from easiest to toughest:

• at Purdue (24% chance to win)
• at Maryland (45%)
• Purdue (46%)
• at Northwestern (49%) and at Michigan State (49%)
• at Michigan (58%)
• Rutgers (61%)
• Illinois (64%)
• Iowa (69%)
• Michigan (79%)

FWIW, Pom predicts the final conference standings to be:

• Purdue 16-4
• Rutgers 13-7
• Illinois 12-8
• Northwestern, Indiana, Michigan State, and Maryland 11-9
• Iowa and Penn State 10-10
• Michigan and Ohio State 9-11
• Wisconsin 8-12
• Nebraska 6-14
• Minnesota 3-17

Can I be safe in assuming any analytics that predict MSU on the road is more difficult than Puredoo at home are flawed?

[RaceToTheTop]

Games ended early today, so I can release my Monday morning top 25 WAR early.  Looking forward to others (LCS, Joe, etc) releasing their's tomorrow for comparison.

1. Purdue 21-1, +7.64
2. Alabama 18-3, +6.28
3. Kansas 17-4, +6.05
4. Arizona 19-3, +5.6
5. Houston 20-2, +4.83
6. Kansas St 18-3, +4.83
7. Texas 17-4, +4.46
8. Tennessee 18-3, +4.36
9. UCLA 17-4, +4.34
10. Baylor 16-5, +4.31
11. Xavier 17-5, +4.22
12. Gonzaga 17-4, +4.12
13. Marquette 17-5, +4.04
14. Virginia 16-3, +3.80
15. Iowa St 15-5, +3.72
16. San Diego St 16-4, +3.30
17. Florida Atlantic 18-1, +3.04
18. Providence 17-5,  +2.92
19. TCU 16-5, +2.89
20. Connecticutt 16-6, +2.89
21. Missouri 16-5, +2.66
22. St. Mary's 17-5, +2.59
23. Memphis 17-5, +2.59
24. Auburn 16-5, +2.51
25. USC 15-6, +2.28

Near:  New Mexico 16-3, +2.26, NC State 17-5, +2.20, Indiana 15-6, +2.15, Michigan St 14-8, +2.12, Illinois 15-6, +2.10.

[RaceToTheTop]

5 minutes ago, Stuhoo said:

Can I be safe in assuming that the analytics that predict MSU on the road is more difficult than Puredoo at home can be flawed?

Personally, I think IU has a better chance to beat Purdue in Assembly Hall than Michigan State at Crisler.  

[Rico]

2 minutes ago, RaceToTheTop said:

Personally, I think IU has a better chance to beat Purdue in Assembly Hall than Michigan State at Crisler.  

...or Michigan at the Breslin Center.

[RaceToTheTop]

7 minutes ago, Rico said:

...or Michigan at the Breslin Center.

Yep.  ;)

[HinnyHoosier]

https://www.instagram.com/reel/Cnu4XuhDxbh/?utm_source=ig_web_button_share_sheet

 

For some Monday morning chuckles.

Young Gradey Dick still with some work to do on his postgame pressers.

 

 

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[IUHoosierJoe]

Through yesterday's games, my computer-generated rankings, 50/50 weighting of result-based and score-based:

1. Tennessee

2. Houston

3. Alabama

4. Purdue

5. UCLA

6. Kansas

7. Arizona

8. Texas

9. St Mary's CA

10. Gonzaga

11. Kansas St

12. Baylor

13. FL Atlantic

14. Connecticut

15. San Diego St

16. Marquette

17. Virginia

18. Iowa St

19. Xavier

20. TCU

21. New Mexico

22. Boise St

23. Duke

24. Utah St

25. Indiana

As I mentioned a couple weeks ago, these have been a decent predictor of tournament selections and seeds with a couple exceptions: I tend to rank teams from smaller conferences higher than their seeding.  For example, I have Florida Atlantic in the 4-seed range, and my sense, just based on past experience, is their ceiling is probably an 8-seed even if they win out, and even if they're ranked in the top 15 of the AP poll.  But we'll see.  The other exception, as I mentioned before, is a team here and there that gets in the tournament because of an abnormal number of Quad 1 wins versus their entire body of work.  For example, I had Rutgers ranked nowhere near the cut off line last year.  With that being said, I have Indiana a solid 7 seed now, playing 10-seed NC State in the first round.   

[RaceToTheTop]

Anyone who is wanting to post their top 25 and be part of the BTownBanners weekly aggregate top 25, please do so by 8 eastern tonight.  I currently have mine, LCS's and Joe's.

[Stuhoo]

26 minutes ago, RaceToTheTop said:

Anyone who is wanting to post their top 25 and be part of the BTownBanners weekly aggregate top 25, please do so by 8 eastern tonight.  I currently have mine, LCS's and Joe's.

Just curious.

Do I have to to rank Purdue to be taken seriously and entered into the index?

[AKHoosier]

So only 2 B1G schools currently in the Top 25, us and Purdue.

Definitely a down year in the conference with UM, UW, OSU, and MSU not being at their usual level.

Purdue obviously being the major beneficiary of that. Any other year with their talent they'd be like 15-5 or so.

[RaceToTheTop]

49 minutes ago, Stuhoo said:

Just curious.

Do I have to to rank Purdue to be taken seriously and entered into the index?

Unfortunately....it pains me.....but yes.  The ranking shouldn't be by town smell.

[str8baller]

1 hour ago, AKHoosier said:

Purdue obviously being the major beneficiary of that. Any other year with their talent they'd be like 15-5 or so.

Not sure about that. They’ve been beating people soundly. In and out of conference. They’re good, and I can tell some people are having a tough time with it.   
 

They’re closest game was at Nebraska in OT but even when the B1G is “up” Nebraska isn’t, so you can’t really say they benefited there. A two point win at OSU and a one point win at MSU (who they trounced later) could conceivably be losses in a stronger B1G. They’d be 19-3 in that scenario and still two full games up on NW in conf.  
 

I feel like the NWs and PSUs benefit more by getting automatic wins vs Minny and wins versus weakened IU/Illinois/Wisconsin where they normally be losses. 

[TheWatShot]

27 minutes ago, str8baller said:

Not sure about that. They’ve been beating people soundly. In and out of conference. They’re good, and I can tell some people are having a tough time with it.   
 

They’re closest game was at Nebraska in OT but even when the B1G is “up” Nebraska isn’t, so you can’t really say they benefited there. A two point win at OSU and a one point win at MSU (who they trounced later) could conceivably be losses in a stronger B1G. They’d be 19-3 in that scenario and still two full games up on NW in conf.  
 

I feel like the NWs and PSUs benefit more by getting automatic wins vs Minny and wins versus weakened IU/Illinois/Wisconsin where they normally be losses. 

Five of their conference wins are by a total of 14 points. If the conference was stronger, I don't think it's unrealistic that a few of those games could have gone the other way. 

 

In a normal year, there are probably 4 or 5 Big Ten teams ranked. Right now there are 2, and last week it was one. The last time that happened was almost two decades ago. It's definitely benefitting them (and probably us, or at least it should). 

[reconmkd]

LOL, ESPN (the most impartial name in Sports) has decided to take game day down to the UNC/Duke match up on the same day IU/PU. Chose a rivalry game between 2 unranked teams over the #1/21 rivalry! Makes sense, I guess.

[Rico]

1 hour ago, AKHoosier said:

 

Definitely a down year in the conference with UM, UW, OSU, and MSU not being at their usual level.

Purdue obviously being the major beneficiary of that. Any other year with their talent they'd be like 15-5 or so.

Meh.  It very well might be a down year in the B1G but the Boilers are still a dang good basketball team.

[AKHoosier]

48 minutes ago, str8baller said:

Not sure about that. They’ve been beating people soundly. In and out of conference. They’re good, and I can tell some people are having a tough time with it.   
 

They’re closest game was at Nebraska in OT but even when the B1G is “up” Nebraska isn’t, so you can’t really say they benefited there. A two point win at OSU and a one point win at MSU (who they trounced later) could conceivably be losses in a stronger B1G. They’d be 19-3 in that scenario and still two full games up on NW in conf.  
 

I feel like the NWs and PSUs benefit more by getting automatic wins vs Minny and wins versus weakened IU/Illinois/Wisconsin where they normally be losses. 

MSU was without Malik Hall, OSU was without Key and McNeil missed a decent amount of time, Maryland came within 3 at the end.

They'll be the least impressive B1G champion in recent memory IMO.