2020-21 IUMBB Season Predictions and Discussion

[IUc2016]

I can't take it anymore. I have to have some sort of IU basketball discussion and one that doesn't involve the Coronavirus. Hopefully we can get this virus under control and there is no doubt about next season being played. Absent the unforeseen, I believe this will be the most talented and most complete team Archie has had yet. I don't believe they will be top 10, but most certainly top 25 with a chance to compete for a top 4 finish in the BIG. Let me know what you think/hope to see with IU next year!

Starting Lineup

Rob Phinisee (jr)

Al Durham (sr)

Justin Smith (sr)

Race Thompson (jr)

Trayce Jackson Davis (so)

 

Bench (rotation players)

Joey Brunk (sr)

Jerome Hunter (so)

Armaan Franklin (so)

Anthony Leal (fr)

 

Bench Reserves

Trey Galloway (fr)

Jordan Geronimo (fr)

Damezi Anderson (jr)

*I didn't include lander because he hasn't declared a reclassification to this point; just as I did include Anderson although it is expected he transfers. 

 

Estimated Record: 22-9 (13-7)

Tournament Ceiling: 4-5 seed with outside chance of elite 8 appearance. 

I think the top of the BIG will be very strong, but there will not be as much depth depending on foreseen departures. 

 

 

[mjtavier]

Interesting conversation. I personally would include Leal (fr) with the bench reserves as we don't know how any of those guys are going to come in and contribute. 1 Guard / 1 Big / 1 wing for bench rotation players with room for Lander and some freshman to get some experience, yes please!

I also can see Al and / or Smith transferring this offseason, though...

[IUc2016]

2 minutes ago, mjtavier said:

Interesting conversation. I personally would include Leal (fr) with the bench reserves as we don't know how any of those guys are going to come in and contribute. 1 Guard / 1 Big / 1 wing for bench rotation players with room for Lander and some freshman to get some experience, yes please!

I also can see Al and / or Smith transferring this offseason, though...

I think Leal's ability to shoot will get him the chance to see more minutes than the other two. But yeah it is obviously wild conjecture as I have no idea how the freshman will do.

I have a hard time seeing either of those two leaving, Al more so than smith. I know smith graduates, but he averaged 30 minutes a game and got to play on the wing. Unless Archie forces him out I think he is back

[woodenshoemanHoosierfan]

Interesting conversation. I personally would include Leal (fr) with the bench reserves as we don't know how any of those guys are going to come in and contribute. 1 Guard / 1 Big / 1 wing for bench rotation players with room for Lander and some freshman to get some experience, yes please!
I also can see Al and / or Smith transferring this offseason, though...

I think Al stays. It looks like he enjoys it at IU. I can see Smith as a Graduate Transfer if he graduates. He won't leave as a regular transfer

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[Loaded Chicken Sandwich]

Next year is interesting. We could have two freshmen guards coming in that are better than the guards we have now. I don’t think the offense gets any better but the “team” should be better. The offense will continue to be stagnant, clunky and just embarrassing far too often. Might see some of those 10 minutes scoreless spells go down to 5-7 minutes though. Defense should be better as well.

The starting I WANT to see
PG- Lander or Phinisee if Lander doesn’t come next season.
SG- Leal
SF- Hunter
PF- Race
C- TJD
Bench- Smith, Brunk, Franklin, Durham, Geronimo, Galloway, Anderson.

The likely starters because it’s Archie.....
PG- Phinisee
SG- Lander or Al(depending on Lander)
SF- Smith
PF- TJD
C- Brunk

I don’t think Galloway sees a bunch of time next season. Simply because because we could have Lander, Al and Leal ahead of him at the 2 and Smith, Hunter and Geronimo ahead of him at the 3. And it seems Archie is going after another guard so he’d likely be behind that guy as well.


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[Brass Cannon]

Too many variables. If Seniors get another year some talented players could stick around.  To be thorns in our sides again. 

[reconmkd]

7 hours ago, Brass Cannon said:

Too many variables. If Seniors get another year some talented players could stick around.  To be thorns in our sides again. 

DeRon was on WDRB down here in Louisville  a couple days ago, and he said that he and Devonte had discussed the possibility of the extra year, but both were done and ready to move on.

[Brass Cannon]

1 hour ago, reconmkd said:

DeRon was on WDRB down here in Louisville  a couple days ago, and he said that he and Devonte had discussed the possibility of the extra year, but both were done and ready to move on.

Was talking about other teams 

[IUc2016]

I really don’t see seniors getting another year.


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[Uspshoosier]

https://collegehoopstoday.com/index.php/rothstein-files/early-edition-preseason-45-for-20-21/
IU 23 in this one


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[Hovadipo]

43 minutes ago, IUc2016 said:

I really don’t see seniors getting another year.


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*and they^ shouldn’t*
 

^winter sports athletes

[IUc2016]

30 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

https://collegehoopstoday.com/index.php/rothstein-files/early-edition-preseason-45-for-20-21/
IU 23 in this one


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Seems about right. I think IU will be right on the verge of starting the season top 25. 

[GloryDays]

14 hours ago, Loaded Chicken Sandwich said:

Next year is interesting. We could have two freshmen guards coming in that are better than the guards we have now. I don’t think the offense gets any better but the “team” should be better. The offense will continue to be stagnant, clunky and just embarrassing far too often. Might see some of those 10 minutes scoreless spells go down to 5-7 minutes though. Defense should be better as well.

The starting I WANT to see
PG- Lander or Phinisee if Lander doesn’t come next season.
SG- Leal
SF- Hunter
PF- Race
C- TJD
Bench- Smith, Brunk, Franklin, Durham, Geronimo, Galloway, Anderson.

The likely starters because it’s Archie.....
PG- Phinisee
SG- Lander or Al(depending on Lander)
SF- Smith
PF- TJD
C- Brunk

I don’t think Galloway sees a bunch of time next season. Simply because because we could have Lander, Al and Leal ahead of him at the 2 and Smith, Hunter and Geronimo ahead of him at the 3. And it seems Archie is going after another guard so he’d likely be behind that guy as well.


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At this point I wouldn't put Geronimo ahead of Galloway. Athletically maybe but basketball wise Trey is miles ahead.

[Loaded Chicken Sandwich]

At this point I wouldn't put Geronimo ahead of Galloway. Athletically maybe but basketball wise Trey is miles ahead.

Neither will be playing much. Likely Franklin type roles for the whole year.


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[Bobman1]

https://collegehoopstoday.com/index.php/rothstein-files/early-edition-preseason-45-for-20-21/
IU 23 in this one


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Rothstein didn’t even include Lander as projected and the Hoosiers still sit a slot below Michigan at 23.


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[Gahoosierfan]

Archie needs to make major progress to keep his job in my opinion. He needs at least 25 wins and wins in the B10 Tourney and probably 2 or 3 in the NCAA. Anything less and the new AD needs to send him packing. I give him an overall C for his first three years. 

[HinnyHoosier]

Archie needs to make major progress to keep his job in my opinion. He needs at least 25 wins and wins in the B10 Tourney and probably 2 or 3 in the NCAA. Anything less and the new AD needs to send him packing. I give him an overall C for his first three years. 

So basically Elite Eight or bust.




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[HoosierRobbie]

Archie needs to make major progress to keep his job in my opinion. He needs at least 25 wins and wins in the B10 Tourney and probably 2 or 3 in the NCAA. Anything less and the new AD needs to send him packing. I give him an overall C for his first three years. 

So elite eight or he gets fired? That’s not happening.


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[BGleas]

58 minutes ago, Gahoosierfan said:

Archie needs to make major progress to keep his job in my opinion. He needs at least 25 wins and wins in the B10 Tourney and probably 2 or 3 in the NCAA. Anything less and the new AD needs to send him packing. I give him an overall C for his first three years. 

You can't really use the tournament as a barometer, at least at this point. There are too many variables and unknowns. What if we win 23 games, lose in the first round of the BTT but then make a Sweet Sixteen? Are you firing him?

What if they win 26 games, lose in the BTT Final and then lose in the 2nd round of the NCAA? Firing him?

What if they win 21 games, win 2 BTT games and then make an Elite run? Are you firing him?

Does he have to hit all of your criteria? Just one? 2 out of 3?

What Archie needs to do is continue to show progress and improvement. The team has improved every season under Archie, though I fully admit the improvements have been incremental, with no huge leaps. I do agree it is time, especially if you have the bulk of the roster (including TJD) returning and you're adding a kid like Lander for a more substantial leap. But to put actual win parameters (25 games, specific # of tournament wins, etc.) is setting yourself up to paint yourself into a corner. 

Continued improvement and progress is what Archie needs to do. 

[IUc2016]

I think for this next season, the biggest barometer will be where this team finishes in conference. It should be another tough year with plenty of conference teams getting into the tournament. I don't expect IU to compete to win it per se, but I do expect them to compete in the top of the second tier of teams. That 4-6 range. Obviously unbalanced schedules play into it, but if IU is in that range this program will have made a significant step forward given how tough the conference is expected to be. 

It is difficult to gauge success based on tournament results. Now over time if you keep seeing early exits that is different. But for one year it is better to look at the entire body of work IMO.