Bracketology and Team Resumes

[Uspshoosier]

As always it will depend on the wins they end up.   They could 9-11 in the B1G and with the right wins they will get in or the could  go 11-9 with the wrong wins and get left out.  Way too early to play the if they win this amount of games they are in 

[Uspshoosier]

IU as of Jan 5th 

11-3

Net-30

Sos-172

Non con-199

results based metrics average (high 40s /low 50s 

predictive average- low 20s 

Q1a (O-2) both away from home

Q1b( no games yet) 

Q2a(O-1) away from home 

Q2b(2-0) both at home 

Q3(2-0) 1 home and 1 away from home 

Next 5 games IU has 2 winnable home games against top 15 NET teams, a winnable road game against a NET 160 team( for reference Minny is 94 and that is a Q2a loss) and 2 road games against title contenders( these are bonus games if you win 1 of those it’s like winning 2 games and if you lose then you won’t get penalized by the NET

iu is still on track to make the tourney and make it in comfortably as long as they take advantage of their home games.  IU is not going to compete for a top 4 spot in the B1G however they middle 5-8 is very attainable.  Listening to national media that tracks with where they thought IU would be this year.  Listening to most on here that was where most IU was going to track.  Next few weeks will be interesting. If they start losing home games then they will have to steal some on the road. Buckle up 

[Stuhoo]

19 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

IU as of Jan 5th 

11-3

Net-30

Sos-172

Non con-199

results based metrics average (high 40s /low 50s 

predictive average- low 20s 

Q1a (O-2) both away from home

Q1b( no games yet) 

Q2a(O-1) away from home 

Q2b(2-0) both at home 

Q3(2-0) 1 home and 1 away from home 

Next 5 games IU has 2 winnable home games against top 15 NET teams, a winnable road game against a NET 160 team( for reference Minny is 94 and that is a Q2a loss) and 2 road games against title contenders( these are bonus games if you win 1 of those it’s like winning 2 games and if you lose then you won’t get penalized by the NET

iu is still on track to make the tourney and make it in comfortably as long as they take advantage of their home games.  IU is not going to compete for a top 4 spot in the B1G however they middle 5-8 is very attainable.  Listening to national media that tracks with where they thought IU would be this year.  Listening to most on here that was where most IU was going to track.  Next few weeks will be interesting. If they start losing home games then they will have to steal some on the road. Buckle up 

A less analytic good sign? Getting votes in both the coaches and writer's polls this week. Beat Maryland and win at home against Nebraska and we should be borderline ranked. 

Whether Pharrel Payne plays for Maryland will have a whole lot to do with whether this takes a happy path.

[Uspshoosier]

2 minutes ago, Stuhoo said:

A less analytic good sign? Getting votes in both the coaches and writer's polls this week. Beat Maryland and win at home against Nebraska and we should be borderline ranked. 

Whther Pharrel Payne plays for Maryland will have a whole lot to do with whether this takes a happy path.

Even if he plays they won’t have a better chance for a road win besides Rutgers moving forward.    Rutgers and Maryland are 2 of the 5 power 5 teams with the worst NET (Marquette is one of the bottom 5 as well)

[Stuhoo]

5 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

Even if he plays they won’t have a better chance for a road win besides Rutgers moving forward.    Rutgers and Maryland are 2 of the 5 power 5 teams with the worst NET (Marquette is one of the bottom 5 as well)

Then let's hope he sits, and that Maryland gets red hot when their best player by far returns.

[Uspshoosier]

IU missed out on 2 Q1a opportunities the last 2 games with one of those being at home.   Blew a 16 pt lead at home to a projected 2 seed and then gave up a 19-0 run after being tied in the 2nd half on the road to a projected 3 seed.  4 of IUs losses so far this year are Q1a.   IU has shown they are not going to be one of the top tier B1G teams however they will have plenty of opportunities against the bottom and middle of the B1G teams that they will need to take advantage. 
 If Iowa loses to Purdue on Wednesday then the Iowa/IU game becomes massive for both teams. 
 

Most important games  ranked moving forward for IU 

Iowa 

Wisky 

@Rutgers 

Minny 

Oregon 

@Ohio St 

Northwestern 

Sparty 

@Ucla 

@Usc 

Purdue 

@Illinios 

@Purdue 

@Michigan 

 

 

[Class of '66 Old Fart]

Torvik

[Uspshoosier]

Despite the 2 losses nothing has really changed for IU.   After watching the first couple games it was evident they would struggle with the top half of the B1G only surprise for me was that Nebraska is a legit top tier B1G team.   Ius season will come down to how they do against other teams fighting for a tourney spot.   IU is still projected in most brackets however as we all know brackets in January don’t really matter.   Their will be teams projected in that end up not making it and their will be teams projected out that make it.  
IU, Ohio St, Iowa, USC, UCLA, Wisky and maybe Washington will all be fighting for an at -large.    The top 5 in the league look to be solidly in.   

[Uspshoosier]

IU missed out on a Q1 home opportunity against a lower seeded tourney quality team.   This was one that in my opinion was there most important game up until this point.   Ius problem in past years were not winning home games against tourney quality teams.  This year they are 0-2 in that category.  As a lower seeded tourney team you need to take advantage of your home games and so far IU hasn’t done that. 
 
Lucky for IU that B1G provides so many Q1 opportunities that if you get hot string together some wins then you can go from a team on the outside looking out to a team safely in the field.    An example this year is St John’s had played themselves out of the projected field but then got hot and won 4 games in a row and they are now projected safely in the field.  With each passing day they are making harder on themselves to make a run however the path is still there and has always I will lay that path out until that path isn’t an option anymore.   

[Uspshoosier]

Ius 6 of 7 losses are to KenPom top 25 teams with 4 of those being away from home.   Still top 40 in the NET with a SOS around the 40s.   Yes the roster is flawed however they still have opportunities in front of them.   Massive 5 game stretch upon them.  Purdue game is a bonus game that if you win it you have a huge resume win.  2 road games were against tourney quality teams (need to split) and then 2 home games you need to win with the one against Wisky the most important with the way they are playing.  Margins between winning and losing are small. 1 game can change the perception of how things are.  Imagine if IU finished the Nebraska game after being up 16 with 16 min to go?   Instead of 4-5 in the conference with 0 quality wins they would have been 5-4 with a win against a projected 2 seed.   Even with a flawed roster they still have a shot at a tourney birth.  Won’t be easy but opportunity is there.   

[Golfman25]

Imagine if they just beat Minn and Iowa.  6-3.  :)

[Uspshoosier]

12 minutes ago, Golfman25 said:

Imagine if they just beat Minn and Iowa.  6-3.  :)

They didn’t have a 16 point lead against those teams so it would have been hard to imagine or at least for me.    

[Golfman25]

1 hour ago, Uspshoosier said:

They didn’t have a 16 point lead against those teams so it would have been hard to imagine or at least for me.    

That’s the scary part.  :)

[Uspshoosier]

52 minutes ago, Golfman25 said:

That’s the scary part.  :)

For some it is but for others not so much.   It’s just basketball.   It happens 

[Stuhoo]

2 hours ago, Golfman25 said:

Imagine if they just beat Minn and Iowa.  6-3.  :)

If your tia had cojones she’d be your tio.

[Uspshoosier]

That Minny loss might be a Q1 loss by the end of tomorrow.   Just means IU will get another quality opponent at home.  Better Minnys numbers get the better for IU trying to build a resume 

[Uspshoosier]

Iu remaining B1G game against NET top 10 teams 

4-  @Illinois, Sparty and Purdue twice 

IU remaining games against teams projected at the end of the bracket 

4- Wisky, @Ohio St, @Ucla and @USC

IU remaining games against teams they should be favored 

Oregon, Northwestern and Minny 

Wisky game will be massive and the LA road swing.