Bracketology and Team Resumes

[Uspshoosier]

Just going to dive into the NET for IU a little deeper to show why they are at 137 

reminder these early NET projections mean nothing.   While you would have liked IU to begin better it’s nothing winning games can’t overcome.   Last year they started out 10th in the first projection and finished 30th.   Sam Houston started out in the top 10 and didn’t come close to finishing there.  Last year IU smashed terrible teams early and benefited from it.   This year TCU is benefiting from that being 41 without playing anyone with a NET under 200 I believe.    This will work itself out  as the year moves progresses 

IU is 6-1

Wins 

FGCU(296) won by 6

Army(354) won by 8

Wright St(128) won by 9

Louisville(279) won by 8

Harvard(93) won by 13

Maryland (210) won by 12 

Lost by 20 to UConn(9).  
 

 

 

 

 

[Hovadipo]

39 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

reminder these early NET projections mean nothing

Might I suggest making this your posting signature. Or making it your profile picture?

[Uspshoosier]

Sounds like Sagarin isn’t releasing ratings for the upcoming season so the teams sheets will have 1 less metric on it 

[yogisballin]

8 hours ago, TheWatShot said:

I really hope we didn't agree to count this as a home game instead of neutral. Woodson's old-school mentality has always concerned me a bit in that he doesn't seem to care about modern metrics and how they may affect our team at season's end. We should never be considering a game in Indy as a home game. 

May affect our team at seasons end? I’m concerned about it affecting it for seasons to come. The brand of basketball we are playing is just, BORING! 

 

Kids these days want to run it up and down. Play uptempo basketball

[str8baller]

11 hours ago, yogisballin said:

Kids these days want to run it up and down. Play uptempo basketball

I would like to see better guard play/more 3’s but plenty of teams play at a slower pace and do just fine, both in results and recruiting. Uconn was in the lower half last year in tempo. Houston was nearly dead last. Tenn. , Purdue, Virginia, Wisky, etc…. 
 

I’ve always thought something like Kenpom actually favored slower paced teams, oddly enough. 

[str8baller]

11 hours ago, Uspshoosier said:

Sounds like Sagarin isn’t releasing ratings for the upcoming season so the teams sheets will have 1 less metric on it 

Wow…is he done for good? That’s kind of sad. 

[IUHoosierJoe]

23 minutes ago, str8baller said:

Wow…is he done for good? That’s kind of sad. 

Just a guess, but he may have found a client to sell them to since USA Today no longer carries them.  Maybe they will appear somewhere else soon.  He’s still updating the other sports.

[IUHoosierJoe]

27 minutes ago, str8baller said:

I would like to see better guard play/more 3’s but plenty of teams play at a slower pace and do just fine, both in results and recruiting. Uconn was in the lower half last year in tempo. Houston was nearly dead last. Tenn. , Purdue, Virginia, Wisky, etc…. 
 

I’ve always thought something like Kenpom actually favored slower paced teams, oddly enough. 

Agree with you on the KenPom comment as someone who has produced and occasionally published sports ratings as a hobby since the late-90s.  And I absolutely understand why people prefer tempo-adjusted stats and ratings.  It seems to make perfect sense.  Except the scoreboard isn’t adjusted for tempo.  And while the argument is certainly true that a slow-paced team would have won a game by 25 instead of 20 if they played at an “average” tempo, the scoreboard still says they won by 20.

[Uspshoosier]

Early in the year a road win takes IU from 136 to 98 in the NET.     Win games and the numbers will work themselves out 

[TheWatShot]

6 hours ago, Uspshoosier said:

Early in the year a road win takes IU from 136 to 98 in the NET.     Win games and the numbers will work themselves out 

Have you found anything about why the people doing these rankings think we picked up Assembly Hall and moved it to Indy for the Harvard game? 

[Uspshoosier]

4 minutes ago, TheWatShot said:

Have you found anything about why the people doing these rankings think we picked up Assembly Hall and moved it to Indy for the Harvard game? 

Not yet.  I’ve sent some messages to some people but haven’t heard back.    Still searching for an answer 

[Uspshoosier]

30 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

Not yet.  I’ve sent some messages to some people but haven’t heard back.    Still searching for an answer 

What I've realized with these over the years.

1) Usually who controls the tickets and puts the game on, dictates the status. So if it's an outside company, it's pretty easy for it to be neutral. If it's all through the school, not so straightforward.

2) It can be appealed.
 

this is from Rocco Miller one of the best bracketologist out there.  

[rcbowla]

What I've realized with these over the years.
1) Usually who controls the tickets and puts the game on, dictates the status. So if it's an outside company, it's pretty easy for it to be neutral. If it's all through the school, not so straightforward.
2) It can be appealed.
 
this is from Rocco Miller one of the best bracketologist out there.  

So pretty much what you said from the jump. Now, how do we find out who was in charge of the game? I'm assuming as@coonhounds said with IU logo in center court that IU put it on but who knows?

Sent from my SM-G996U using Tapatalk

[Uspshoosier]

4 minutes ago, rcs29 said:

So pretty much what you said from the jump. Now, how do we find out who was in charge of the game? I'm assuming as@coonhounds said with IU logo in center court that IU put it on but who knows?

Sent from my SM-G996U using Tapatalk
 

IU just needs to appeal to the committee and go from there.    I would hope they already have or have someone monitoring the situation.    My argument would be Purdue is playing Arizona in the same building and I’m guessing that isn’t counted as a home game for them.   My guess is it will be a neutral court game at the end of the year but might take awhile for it to happen 

[RaceToTheTop]

Going to do my bracketology calculations tonight for Big Ten teams (it compares # of wins I project a team needs to make the tournament based on their schedule).   Rule of thumb is any team that finishes at a +1 or better on my system is close to a lock for the tournament.

FWIW, based on current Pom team ratings, my project for minimum record based on IU's schedule and Pom ratings of teams would be 19-13 in the regular season.

[Uspshoosier]

Dropped to 124 

Auburn getting the blowing out a +100 team bump and moved up 9 spots to 24

 

Sycamores up to 12 

[sbhoosierfan]

I look at Kenpom alot for data, but also really like www.parsedsports.com because they have a lot of the same details plus live brackets and spread projections.

Right now they have us a 57 and looking in (number 7 in the first 8 out) , but do have 6 teams in the tournament from the Big Ten, with Purdue in the final 4. Projecting us at 21-10 this season.  

[RaceToTheTop]

On 12/4/2023 at 7:47 PM, Uspshoosier said:

Sounds like Sagarin isn’t releasing ratings for the upcoming season so the teams sheets will have 1 less metric on it 

Interesting.  I’ve been checking in on them and assumed they Sagarin was releasing, just waiting a bit before he did.  FWIW, he didn’t release any of his Indiana high school basketball ratings until late last week.

[Uspshoosier]

Where things stand mid December.    When building a tournament resume you guys always hear me say there are 3 phases of a season where a team can build their resume.   Non conference,  conference play and then conference tournament.   Every team is different in how they make their resume.   Some dominate the non conference and then do just enough in conference to get by while others do terrible early and have a strong conference season and then others don’t do well in either and then make a run in the conference tourneys to get an at-large.   Basically whether a team does well or doesn’t do well early doesn’t set their fate.   
 

IU is setting at 7-3 (2-0)

NET -116

Q1- (1-3) (0-3 Q1a)  1-0(Q1b)

Q2- 

Q3- 3-0

Q4- 3-0

https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/team-net-sheet?team=Indiana
 

you can click on the sheet to see the other numbers 

 

clearly IU will have work to do in the conference.   As bad as the non con was against top competition the losses don’t hurt IU nearly as bad as some might think.  IU so far has shown they can’t beat top level Q1a quality teams.   They really haven’t played  mid level tournament quality teams just yet and with this roster and where IU is at in my opinion when they do that will give you a better feel on where this team stands for the year.    
 

I know much is being said about the quality of the B1G this year and rightfully so because it is down relative to where it usually is at by this time of year.    Just means the margin of error for those teams fighting for a spot is way smaller.    The wins will be there for teams to get an at-large bid if they beat certain teams however there are enough non tourney teams in the B1G this year where if a team that hasn’t done much in the non conference only beats those bottom teams there could be a chance they won’t get an at-large even if they have a bunch of B1G wins.     I know one thing if I’m IU I’m going everything in my power to get the Harvard game a neutral court game    Right now they are at 101 in the NET if that’s a neutral game then they are 1 spot from a Q2 win and who knows where they might end up       All this long winded post just to say I haven’t seen enough from IU against mid quality tournament teams to get a good feel on whether they can be an 7-12 seed but u have seen enough to know they are not on the level of protected seed quality team (1-4 seed)

Finishing  out the non conference by destroying  these next 3 teams and bring the NET number down to a respectable number should be priority number 1.    These games are important even if the opponent isn’t big and I hope IU treats them that way 

[TheWatShot]

I can't get over how bad our NET ranking is. Was it this bad after we had the home losses to IPFW and Indiana State? (I think that was the first year they were used)