Bracketology and Team Resumes

[IU - Kaulie]

12 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

Iowa st is probably a 5 seed or one of the last 4s.    UConn and Zags is who I have at 3 line now over those 2 

Does IU winning the next two pass UConn?  Or maybe it’s more like it should be enough to pass them but by Sunday the committee wants it wrapped up.

[Uspshoosier]

3 minutes ago, IU - Kaulie said:

Does IU winning the next two pass UConn?  Or maybe it’s more like it should be enough to pass them but by Sunday the committee wants it wrapped up.

If they played Purdue in the finals and won I would say yes for me personally.  I think wherever the committee had those teams seeded last night will be where they end up regardless of today and tomorrows outcome.    That’s just me guessing.   

[Scotty R]

The team on the 3 line that shouldn't be there is UT. They haven't played well of late and lost one of their best players

[MemphisHoosier]

1 hour ago, Scotty R said:

The team on the 3 line that shouldn't be there is UT. They haven't played well of late and lost one of their best players

This.  I 'think' Gonzaga, Marquette, and K-St are locks for the three line and the final spot is a conversation b/w Tennessee, UConn, Xavier, and IU.  Virginia could make a push if they win the ACC Tourney as well.  

[Loaded Chicken Sandwich]

I still think Marquette deserves a 2 seed. Over Baylor for sure. 

[Loaded Chicken Sandwich]

Last 5 tourneys..

7 seeds in the first round: 12-8

6 seeds: 9-11

[tomallenfan1]

IU will be a 4/5 seed. Upset city if they don’t come to play hard.

[HoosierAloha]

27 minutes ago, tomallenfan1 said:

IU will be a 4/5 seed. Upset city if they don’t come to play hard.

Not worry about that first round too much. We should be able to out talent them with some big dunks and flexing. It'll be that next round when teams have almost equal talent and skills while playing at that next level of intensity.

[RaceToTheTop]

5 hours ago, Loaded Chicken Sandwich said:

Last 5 tourneys..

7 seeds in the first round: 12-8

6 seeds: 9-11

What are 4's and 5's?

[RaceToTheTop]

5 hours ago, Loaded Chicken Sandwich said:

I still think Marquette deserves a 2 seed. Over Baylor for sure. 

Agree.  I have Marquette as last 2 seed worthy.  Baylor as the third 3 seed.

[Loaded Chicken Sandwich]

28 minutes ago, RaceToTheTop said:

What are 4's and 5's?

Give me a minute and I'll look. 

[Uspshoosier]

Marquette should be a 2 seed (in my eyes) but not sure committee will see it that way.   They were viewed as a 4 seed in the reveal.    That’s a lot of ground to make up to get to the 2 line.   They are clearly playing like a top 8 team right now.   Impressive 

[Loaded Chicken Sandwich]

39 minutes ago, RaceToTheTop said:

What are 4's and 5's?

4 seeds are 15-5 in the last 5 tourneys

5 seeds are 13-7

As for 12 seeds... 6 of those 7 have come in the last 3 tourneys. 2 in 2022, 1 in 2021 and 3 in 2019. 

[RaceToTheTop]

Teams 9-16 since the "reveal" on Feb 18:

Tennessee (9 overall) (3-4):

Loss at Kentucky Q1

Loss at Texas A&M Q1

Win against South Carolina Q4

Win against Arkansas  Q1

Loss at Auburn Q1

Neutral win over Mississippi Q3

Neutral loss to  Missouri Q1

Q1:  1-4  Q2:  0-0  Q3:  1-0  Q4:  1-0

 

Virginia (10 overall)  (5-2)

Win Notre Dame  Q4

Loss at Boston College Q3

Loss at North Carolina Q1

Win Clemson Q2

Win Louisville Q4

Win neutral North Carolina Q1

Win neutral Clemson Q2

Q1:  1-1  Q2:  2-0  Q3:  0-1  Q4:  2-0

 

Iowa St (11 overall) (2-5)

loss at Kansas St Q1 

loss at Texas Q1

loss Oklahoma Q1

loss West Virginia  Q1

win at Baylor Q1

win neutral Baylor Q1

loss neutral Kansas Q1

Q1:  2-5

 

Kansas St (12 overall)  (4-2)

win Iowa St  Q1

win Baylor  Q1

win at Oklahoma St Q1

win Oklahoma  Q2

loss West Virginia Q1

loss TCU neutral Q1

Q1:  3-2  Q2 1-0

 

IU (13 overall)  (4-3):

Home win over Illinois Q2

Road loss to Michigan State Q1

Road win at Purdue Q1

Home loss to Iowa Q2

Home win over Michigan Q2

Neutral court win over Maryland Q1

Neutral court loss to Penn State Q2 (may move to Q1)

Record 4-3.  Quad 1:  2-1  Quad 2:  2-2

 

Marquette (14 overall) 

win at Creighton Q1

win DePaul Q4

win at Butler Q2

win St. John's Q3

win neutral St. John's Q2 

win neutral Connecticutt  Q1

Q1 2-0  Q2  2-0  Q3 1-0  Q4 1-0

 

Gonzaga (15 overall) (6-0)

win at Pepperdine Q3

win San Diego Q4

win St Mary's Q1

win Chicago St Q4

win neutral San Francisco Q3

win neutral St Mary's Q1

Q1 2-0  Q2 0-0  Q3  2-0  Q5  2-0

 

Xavier (16 overall)  (6-1)

win DePaul  Q4

loss Villanova Q2

win at Seton Hall  Q2

win at Providence Q1

win Butler Q3

win neutral DePaul  Q3

win neutral Creighton Q1

Q1:  2-0  Q2 1-1  Q3:  2-0  Q4 1-0

 

 

 

 

 

 

[RaceToTheTop]

@Uspshoosierwhat bracketologists do you trust?  I remember there was one in particular you really liked that had the teams in a snaked order but I don't recall who it was.

EDIT:  found it -- Bracketville

[Uspshoosier]

6 minutes ago, RaceToTheTop said:

@Uspshoosierwhat bracketologists do you trust?  I remember there was one in particular you really liked that had the teams in a snaked order but I don't recall who it was.

EDIT:  found it -- Bracketville

https://bracketville.wordpress.com/seed-list/

[Uspshoosier]

https://bracketeer.org/

https://www.insidethehall.com/2023/03/10/bracketology-ncaa-tournament-projection-as-of-march-10-2023/

[Uspshoosier]

2 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

https://bracketeer.org/

https://www.insidethehall.com/2023/03/10/bracketology-ncaa-tournament-projection-as-of-march-10-2023/

http://factsandbracks.blogspot.com/2023/03/updated-march-11th-2023.html

[Hovadipo]

Starting to cruise through the brackets of the top bracketologists on Bracket Matrix…loving some of their matchups. Yale > San Diego State > Houston was a personal favorite. Toledo > Iowa State > Bama another. 

Just getting the itch to see the real thing tomorrow. 

[RaceToTheTop]

This is what Bracketville had it as of this morning for seeds 1-6:

1. Kansas	2. Alabama	3. Houston	4. Purdue
5. UCLA	6. Texas	7. Arizona	8. Baylor
9.  Marquette	10. Gonzaga	11. Kansas State	12. Tennessee
13. Connecticut	14. Indiana	15. Xavier	16. Virginia
17. Iowa State	18. TCU	19. Duke	20. Miami
21. Saint Mary’s	22. San Diego St	23. Texas AM	24. Missouri

I don't know how many of those spots he would move based on Saturday results.  I would think at this point since losses aren't going to be bad losses I think it would take a team losing and a team behind them winning in order for him to switch their spots, but who knows.  I believe this is a bracketologist that USPS has referred to in the past as being really good.

Personally, when I look at the list, the only one on his list that he has in front of Indiana that I could possibly see being behind Indiana is Tennessee.  They were at 9 on the reveal and IU was 13 but Tennessee had just five meaningful games after that and lost four of them.  The only meaningful win was a home win against Arkansas and Arkansas has struggled to get big wins all year.  So best case on this list I I would see (but I'm no USPS) is IU at 13 overall, so a 4 seed.

Worst case:  I could see Xavier and the winner of Virginia/Duke being ahead of IU although I honestly think it's more likely that Virginia (win or lose) could possibly be in front of IU than Duke even if Duke beats Virginia.  TCU's resume very closely resembles IU's but those 9 quad 4 games and a quad 4 loss would put them behind IU IMO.  Iowa State's schedule was KILLER but I think the 19-13 mark puts their ceiling at a 5.  

So just my opinion, I think IU is between the 13th overall and worst 16th overall selection, putting them at a 4 seed.  I'm going to predict an IU/Iona first round matchup feeding in to Iowa State/Oral Roberts.