What will it take to win #6

[BottomLine 677]

With a five game winning streak and a top 25 ranking, we can all dream about winning that sixth championship.  What will it take?  Just some statistics to provide some food for thought.  The KenPom ratings rank every team in a lot of categories, including AdjO and AdjD.  You can also go back and see ranking for every year since 2002.  Just put a chart together for the AdjO and AdjD ratings and the total of the two for every champion since 2002 and here it is:

2018 Villanova       1 + 11 + 12

2017 North Carolina 9 + 11 + 20

2016  Villanova     3 + 5 + 8

2015  Duke            3 + 11 + 14

2014  Connecticut  39 + 10 + 49

2013  Louisville    9 + 1 = 10

2012  Kentucky    2 + 7 = 9

2011  Connecticut  19 + 15 = 34

2010  Duke            1 + 5 = 6

2009  North Carolina  1 + 18 = 19

2008  Kansas  2 + 1 = 3

2007  Florida    1 + 13 = 14

2006  Florida    3 + 7 = 10

2005  North Carolina   2 + 5 + 7

2004  Connecticut   9 + 6 = 15

2003  Syracuse    17 = 14 = 31

2002  Maryland    4 + 7 + 11

Note that 14 of the last 17 national champions had a combined offensive and defensive rating of 20 or less.  You must admire Archie's drive to bring IU's defensive number down, while doing the same for IU's offensive numbers.  The "magic" 20 point threshold doesn't guarantee a national championship, there are teams below that number that didn't win a championship.  However, it is hard to argue with the statistics that say that teams that have both a good offense and defense have a chance that is much better than teams that can not match those numbers.  IU's current numbers are 37 + 18 = 55, not encouraging for #6.  The only three teams that are currently under the 20 threshold are Duke (2 +5 =7), Virginia (10 + 4 =14) and Kansas (7 + 6 + 13).  Michigan is the best from the Big Ten (21 + 3 + 24).  Of course the numbers change almost every time a team plays.  Some will improve and others will regress and who knows what the numbers will be at the end of the year.  Just thought throw out some numbers for people to think about.  Numbers that are certainly more meaningful that where we are in the national polls.

[HoosierDYT 1,746]

Thanks for this! Was actually wondering the answer to this exact question when I saw our adjusted offense and defense scores on Twitter earlier


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[HinnyHoosier 4,343]

Thanks!

The good thing is defense has improved QUICKLY in less than 2 years. The offense will get there. We must remember Archie is just now on his first recruiting class; personally this group just doesn't gel offensively. I expect that to change through the season, but more so as the roster becomes entirely CAM recruits.

Would you care to look up those numbers for us under FCTC? Just curious.

I would do it but it's 0600 and the munchkins are.... *tired dad sigh* ....awake and going full bore.



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[BottomLine 677]

On 12/20/2018 at 5:08 AM, HinnyHoosier said:

Thanks!

The good thing is defense has improved QUICKLY in less than 2 years. The offense will get there. We must remember Archie is just now on his first recruiting class; personally this group just doesn't gel offensively. I expect that to change through the season, but more so as the roster becomes entirely CAM recruits.

Would you care to look up those numbers for us under FCTC? Just curious.

I would do it but it's 0600 and the munchkins are.... *tired dad sigh* ....awake and going full bore.



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Here are the IU numbers dating back to 2002

Presently     34 + 18 = 52

2018            92 + 65 = 157

2017            27 + 104 = 131

2016               6 + 59 = 65

2015                8 + 200 = 208

2014             126 + 38 = 164

2013                2 + 19 = 21

2012                4 + 72 = 76

2011               61 + 128 = 189

2010              190 + 176 = 366

2009               231 + 174 = 405

2008                 29 + 44 = 73

2007                 26 + 23 = 49

2006                 58 + 33 = 91

2005                 68 + 76 = 144

2004                120 + 72 = 192

2003                   20 + 102 = 122

2002                   26 + 5 = 31

At least this gives us some a means to compare one team with another.  In 2002 we lost to Maryland (4 + 7 = 11) in the championship game and in retrospect much of the work for that team can probably be attributed to the work that Knight did before Davis took over.  In the seasons that followed it was obvious that Davis was not going to get us back to that level again.  The Sampson teams were respectable but not championship caliber.  It is obvious when Crean took over and starting with nothing he made significant progress, especially on offense, up until the 2013 season, where our total of 21 was almost at the threshold level.  However, after 2013 we were back in the rebuilding mode again and we were making significant progress, again especially on offense, before Crean was let go.  We are now undergoing another rebuild because of a change in philosophy.  Crean's reams tried to beat you by outscoring you and overall did a pretty good job of doing that.  Unfortunately, at times they had trouble stopping the other team from scoring.  Now Archie is trying to build a team that wins by stopping you from outscoring us.  Unfortunately, at times we have had trouble over the last two years scoring enough points to win.  Both approaches are flawed, though the jury is still out on Archie.  To win championships and hang banners you need to play offense AND defense.  I think that Archie is aware of this, at least more so than Crean.  What we will never know is how good the present team might have been with Hunter and Thompson available.  I think we would have certain,y been better offensively.   Our early season injuries have also set back the master plan.  We have 18 more games to go against the best conference in the country.  Let's hope the numbers continue to trend down.

[Brass Cannon 24,064]

I’ve always thought that it was flawed to look at Kenpom for champions at the end of the season. That team just beat 6 tourney teams of course their kenpom is going to go up. Would be more curious to see the champs rating just before the tourney. 

[BottomLine 677]

5 minutes ago, Brass Cannon said:

I’ve always thought that it was flawed to look at Kenpom for champions at the end of the season. That team just beat 6 tourney teams of course their kenpom is going to go up. Would be more curious to see the champs rating just before the tourney. 

I'm not looking at the KenPom rating numbers.  I'm looking at the offensive rank and the defensive rank and combining those numbers.  Will those numbers change if they win six games in the tournament?  Probably a bit but you are looking at ranks that have been computed over a 30 game schedule and only adding six more games.  I actually have no idea how KenPom puts his numbers together but I assume that it is based on the whole season and that means that almost 85% of the statistics come from the regular season.  Again that is just an assumption on my part.  What I do know is that those numbers are very powerful when bracket time come around.  HOWEVER, you must only compare majors with majors.  The numbers for mid-majors do not hold up in the tourney. probably because they were mostly compiled against other mid-majors.

[Brass Cannon 24,064]

9 minutes ago, BottomLine said:

I'm not looking at the KenPom rating numbers.  I'm looking at the offensive rank and the defensive rank and combining those numbers.  Will those numbers change if they win six games in the tournament?  Probably a bit but you are looking at ranks that have been computed over a 30 game schedule and only adding six more games.  I actually have no idea how KenPom puts his numbers together but I assume that it is based on the whole season and that means that almost 85% of the statistics come from the regular season.  Again that is just an assumption on my part.  What I do know is that those numbers are very powerful when bracket time come around.  HOWEVER, you must only compare majors with majors.  The numbers for mid-majors do not hold up in the tourney. probably because they were mostly compiled against other mid-majors.

Your still using kenpoms numbers as you said in your first post

[RaceToTheTop 23,606]

42 minutes ago, Brass Cannon said:

I’ve always thought that it was flawed to look at Kenpom for champions at the end of the season. That team just beat 6 tourney teams of course their kenpom is going to go up. Would be more curious to see the champs rating just before the tourney. 

Pom is on record as saying that you can usually pick the contenders for the title prior to the tournament starting by finding the teams that had AdjO and AdjD 20 or under before the tournament started.

[rcbowla 6,734]

Your still using kenpoms numbers as you said in your first post

He's not using his rankings. He's using AdjO and AdjD. I think that playing 6 tourney teams would likely hurt your numbers in those 2 categories as opposed to helping them. Maybe I'm wrong on how it works but I believe that to be the case.

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[Brass Cannon 24,064]

8 minutes ago, brumdog45 said:

Pom is on record as saying that you can usually pick the contenders for the title prior to the tournament starting by finding the teams that had AdjO and AdjD 20 or under before the tournament started.

Every time I have ever seen that backed up with numbers though they use final numbers. 

[Brass Cannon 24,064]

Just now, rcs29 said:

He's not using his rankings. He's using AdjO and AdjD. I think that playing 6 tourney teams would likely hurt your numbers in those 2 categories as opposed to helping them. Maybe I'm wrong on how it works but I believe that to be the case.

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Beating 6 tourney teams most certainly is going to help you in those categories. What do you think he uses to calculate his rankings?

[rcbowla 6,734]

Beating 6 tourney teams most certainly is going to help you in those categories. What do you think he uses to calculate his rankings?

Again he's not using Ken Pom's rankings. He's using the 2 statistical categories that measure efficiency on Off and Def. Those numbers are based off of a per 100 possessions aren't they? If so then your opponent is irrelevant. I think that's why the mid major numbers don't hold up because they are coming against weaker competition.

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[Brass Cannon 24,064]

3 minutes ago, rcs29 said:

Again he's not using Ken Pom's rankings. He's using the 2 statistical categories that measure efficiency on Off and Def. Those numbers are based off of a per 100 possessions aren't they? If so then your opponent is irrelevant. I think that's why the mid major numbers don't hold up because they are coming against weaker competition.

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A) I said numbers not rankings 

B) Those values you are discussing are just what get used to calculate the rankings so semantics really

C) The Kenpom method corrects for quality of opponent

D) Once adjusted O and D are the indeed Kenpom numbers he's calculating those with his own formula. 

[rcbowla 6,734]

A) I said numbers not rankings 
B) Those values you are discussing are just what get used to calculate the rankings so semantics really
C) The Kenpom method corrects for quality of opponent
D) Once adjusted O and D are the indeed Kenpom numbers he's calculating those with his own formula. 

I wasn't aware that the efficiency #'s got corrected for opponent strength. My bad.

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[BottomLine 677]

I'm not sure of how KenPom calculates this offensive and defensive efficiency  numbers.  Is the formula posted somewhere, or is that top secret/need to know only basis?  Will the numbers change during the course of the tournament?  Don't know but it should be something worth checking out this year.  Do know that the numbers are related to how other teams are performing (ranking duh) because they change a bit every day.

[Alford Bailey 12,250]

Dont think we have enough offense to do it this year. Next year will be interesting IF we add Brooks and everyone is healthy. A nice mix of young talent and upperclassmen.

[pumpfake 3,914]

IMO, until we have solid contributors spread across the classes we just won't be there.  Of course, getting a Zion type player or two can change that, but right now the recruiting emphasis (primarily Indiana) probably doesn't lend itself to that.  I'm perfectly content with what Archie and the staff are doing and where things are headed.  I want to see us continue to build and get better but I don't think the game plan we're following is one of the quick-fix type - more of the long term, sustained success mode.

There's also a huge, often ignored factor: luck.  An injury here, early defection there and a team's fortunes can be set back overnight (and also those of other contending opponents).

[Bowhunter 2,656]

Good health, outside shooters, a guard with a killer instinct that can take a game over.  A team that doesn’t turn the ball over at a high rate. And finally a team that makes their free throws. All champions have had these qualities going back through the years.

[mdn82 25,456]

I’ve always thought that it was flawed to look at Kenpom for champions at the end of the season. That team just beat 6 tourney teams of course their kenpom is going to go up. Would be more curious to see the champs rating just before the tourney. 

I definitely get what you are saying, but his system pretty accurately shows you who are the true contenders most every year before the title game. In 2012/13 before the tournament he had a blog about who would win and ultimately it came down to us and Louisville as the only teams if he was accurate leading up to that point. Most every years there are 2 or 3 teams with a realistic shot. It’s not infallible but it gives a pretty good lens into who you should bet for. The best of the best if you gamble only have a 10-25% chance heading into the tournament. I usually mate Vegas up with Kenpom and it’s pretty accurate. I know now they are saying top 20 of both. But before it was top 30 was the golden ticket. Only a couple of years has that not been the case. We should keep an eye out for his posts beforehand. He usually does something and explains. Unfortunately IU hasn’t been good enough to care other than one year. So unless I gamble I don’t care. Will try and remember to keep an eye out.

 

 

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[Brass Cannon 24,064]

24 minutes ago, mdn82 said:

I definitely get what you are saying, but his system pretty accurately shows you who are the true contenders most every year before the title game. In 2012/13 before the tournament he had a blog about who would win and ultimately it came down to us and Louisville as the only teams if he was accurate leading up to that point. Most every years there are 2 or 3 teams with a realistic shot. It’s not infallible but it gives a pretty good lens into who you should bet for. The best of the best if you gamble only have a 10-25% chance heading into the tournament. I usually mate Vegas up with Kenpom and it’s pretty accurate. I know now they are saying top 20 of both. But before it was top 30 was the golden ticket. Only a couple of years has that not been the case. We should keep an eye out for his posts beforehand. He usually does something and explains. Unfortunately IU hasn’t been good enough to care other than one year. So unless I gamble I don’t care. Will try and remember to keep an eye out.

 

 

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Yeah I totally buy that. But I would prefer if you could look back on his standings for any given date.