Is Coach Crean Indiana's Best Option?

[IU Hoosier41]

 

My uncle sent this to me in email, thought I'd throw it up here as it definitely makes you think...

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"As I’ve said before, I hope Indiana has a new coach next year. There are plenty of arguments in favor of this. For me, it’s simple. We need a great coach. I don’t think Crean, today, is a great coach. He’s still young and he could grow into a great coach - but that seems less likely than IU’s ability to hire a great coach (or to hire someone who will become a great coach).

 

The national perception of Tom Crean is very, very different than how IU fans feel about him. That should give us all some pause. On the one hand, we could argue that no one else follows the program as closely as IU fans, so we’re in a better place to evaluate Crean than anyone else. But I don’t think that’s true. We’re so emotionally invested and biased that it’s really hard for us to be reasonable. I think the best example of this is:

 

Syracuse - 61, Indiana - 50

 

That was the first genuine, national title contending team that IU has had in 25 years. Losing in the Sweet Sixteen to Syracuse was just awful... emotionally. IU fans still haven’t gotten over it. I loved that team. To have Oladipo, Zeller, Watford, and Hulls go out like that made me sick to my stomach. None of us were ready for that season to end.

 

But from a basketball sense, a 1 seed losing to a 4 seed is so commonplace that it’s not even noteworthy. 1 in 3 one seeds do not make it past the Sweet Sixteen. It says nothing about Tom Crean’s coaching ability. It was one freaking game. Sure, other than the Final Four in 2003, Crean has not been past the S16 in all his other years, which isn’t encouraging. But that’s because his teams haven’t been high seeds. Indiana was a clear underdog in his other 3 tournament losses. In fact, you have to go all the way back to 2002 and his first trip to the NCAA tournament to find a real upset, when 5 seed Marquette lost to 12 seed Tulsa. Oh, and 12 seeds beat 5 seeds 64% of the time.

 

So let’s imagine a world where we’re wrong about Crean. A world where Indiana’s best chance of success over the next 10 years is to keep Tom Crean. How could that be true? I think it’s pretty easy to imagine.

 

1. We need to acknowledge that winning outright B10 titles is hard. Doing it twice with two completely different rosters over a 4 year period is really hard. And both times Indiana did it, the top of the B10 was really strong. We didn’t just back into the title in an off year for the B10 (like Purdue does). That says a lot about Crean’s ability to build high performing teams.

 

2. One clear trend throughout Crean’s tenure is Indiana’s ability to beat the best teams. Even his first 3 seasons, IU often played best against the best teams (in losing efforts). We’ve also seen IU lose games they shouldn’t. Although this is a bit overblown (all teams get upset occasionally), it still seems too common to me. But I think that’s an easier problem to fix than an inability to beat the best teams.

 

3. In the last six years, Indiana has had strong teams 3 times. Those 3 teams are really, really close to being what IU fans want in our “up” seasons. A couple more NCAA wins is all that separates them from meeting our very high expectations. There’s really no reason to think that Crean can’t reach those expectations in the future.

 

4. In the last six years, Indiana has had weak teams three times. I know from reading a thousand posts on here that most people accept that IU will occasionally have down years. The issue is that our down years are more down than we expect. Missing the tournament completely twice is not acceptable. More than anything else, it’s this inconsistency that drive fans crazy. But even here, Indiana is not that far from being good enough in our down years. We made the tournament in 2015. And as frustrating as this season has been, I think we’re better than several teams that will get at-large bids. With the injuries, close losses, schedule, and youth, a reasonable person could look at this season and conclude that it’s an aberration, not a trend. And I think Crean made some notable recruiting mistakes, from a personality standpoint, that hurt the 2014 and 2015 teams - which has been corrected, from what I can tell.

 

5. “Turnovers and lack of fundamentals! They prove Crean can’t coach!!” Actually, this is easy to argue against. Here goes: IU fans don’t understand basketball. Even worse, they don’t understand basketball in ways that specifically prejudice them against Crean’s style. For example, a low turnover percentage simply isn’t all that important. I could write a whole post about this, but this is really a key point - your eyes might be lying to you. Tom Crean has had the #3, #9, and #11 ranked teams in the country - do you really think those teams did not have good fundamentals? If so, maybe you’re looking at the wrong things. “But wait,” you say, “Indiana has not had good fundamentals this year, and in 2014 and 2015, you moron!” I agree. You know why? Because those teams weren’t very good. There seems to be this weird belief among IU fans that’s it’s okay to have down seasons... as long as the team plays well in their losses. I’ll just leave it at that.

 

6. Bad defense. I admit, I’m grasping at straws on this one. It’s true that our defense has been pretty good (2013, 2014) or decent (2012, 2016) in 4 of the last six years. But I’ll never be able to forgive the Defensive Abomination of 2015. It was so bad I have to use capital letters. And each season I think our defense should be better than it is, given our personnel. So how to make the argument in favor of Crean here? I only see one way: He needs to let go of his ego, admit he needs help, and either listen to his assistants or bring in an assistant who can turn around the defense. This is big, because defense is the only thing preventing IU from being truly elite.

 

7. Last but not least - it’s possible that through back channel communication, Glass knows that he’s not going to be able to get any of his home run hires, and all the other candidates have quite a bit of risk with them. So Glass is not comparing Crean to Bennett or Donovan or Marshall.... he’s comparing Crean to Alford and Mack and Holtmann. I know plenty of IU fans would love one of those guys, but IMO it’s at best even probability that they’ll be better than Crean.

 

To be clear, I’m imagining how we could be wrong, not advocating to keep Crean. I think Crean is closer to being good enough than most IU fans do, from what I can tell, but I’m still ready for a change.... I just think I could be wrong. "

 

EDIT:  It appears he just yanked this off Peegs from a guy named IUTerry... unless my uncle is IUTerry? lol

 

 

 

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[Banksyrules]

Fire him!!!!!!

[JSHoosier]

I can handle losses if the team looks prepared and plays hard.  The Syracuse game isn't about losing, it's that calling them horribly prepared is an insult to horribly prepared teams.

[jmsgws]

I don't think you can really take the national perception of Crean with much consideration.  Those fans don't watch IU much.  To me I place more credence in what our conference foes think, and they want us to keep Crean forever.  

[Hoosierfan2017]

Keep your uncle far away from Fred Glass!!!

I expect us to have down years, they're a fact of life in college basketball, but I also expect to have hope. I expect to have hope in the down years that better days are ahead, and that things won't always be like this. I don't have that right now. Crean isn't recruiting nearly well enough to make me think that things will be better off a year or two from now. 

Maybe we won't find a better coach than Crean, but that doesn't mean we don't go out and try. He has had 9 years here to prove that he's the guy for the job and he's failed. We know that he's not the answer so we can't sit around afraid to make a move because we're worried the next guy won't be either. 

[Yogi'sBicep]

I hate free speach

[VO5]

Nope. Lost me at "a low turnover percentage isn't important"

[Fulkme15]

I've been active on B Town Banners since the start of 2014, I just want to throw that out there before I get roasted for what I'm about to say.
I think if we can't get Stevan's, Donovan or Archie we should honestly stick with Crean for one more year. Does he deserve it, NO. But I want our next hire to be a home run, I just don't see anyone besides those three being good enough to take us where we need to be as a program. Let's throw some feelers out for BD this year then hopefully by next year he's ready to be our coach.
Don't criticize me too much BTB I love Hoosier nation just as much as all of you, and want us to succeed.


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[HoosierAloha]

If you remove the first three years and rearrange the last six this might be worthy of a few more years. However, if my aunt had..

His time here at IU is just like him and how his teams play; all over the place. He can have a good year like his teams could have a good 5 minutes of beautiful basketball. With that, you get the underperforming years and the downright terrible years.

It's time to move on and aim higher. Crean's last six years would probably be good enough for 85% of the Big Ten but "It's Indiana." I do like the thought of Crean checking his ego and getting help. For him, I hope he does this in the future and has success, at another program.

[BtownBanner6]

Two big problems I have with that is when he says the losses are okay because Crean wasn't favored, all that tells me is that he didn't have good enough teams in the regular season. Another one is the ability to beat the best teams, except for a few anomalies remove Crean from assembly and he can't beat mediocre teams.

[MoyeNeeded]

No, its time to go in another direction. With no top flight recruits coming in next season and the depature of possibly 3 players, hand the mantle to someone else. Home run hire is subject to one's opinion. Every poster here has their choices. I truly disagree that FG is willing to make a decision not in the interest of his school and his legacy. Remember, he did not hire CTC but gave him an ample period to see if he could get the job done. I think we need to be patient and see what he and whomever are willing to do and then and only then, judge the results. I do believe that Crean is gone however. I think Fred knows a move has to ne made now. Not only from the standpoint of the fans but Glass himself. There are probably 10 coaches that I believe could come in and do a great job. Some named and a few under our radar. We may not get your so called 'HR' but be damned sure it will be someone who will give us a better opportunity than what we have now. It's all a crapshoot no matter who we hire. Let's just hope that we have paid our penance and the bball Gods shine down on our great university once again.


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[Old Friend]

The problem with this is the eyeball test.  What do we see?

1)  Turnovers are not okay.  Bad shots are not okay.  Poor defense is not okay.  Lack of movement is not okay.   Kids not paying attention is not okay.  Complete lack of discipline is not okay. Everything off the dribble doesn't win consistently without superior talent.  I don't care what Dan Dakich says, much of this is on the coach.

2)  The Syracuse game is mentioned above.  Butler had beaten that zone the year before with Shelvin Mack stationed at the FT line.  A kid who can make a 15 foot jump shot.  And DID.  Couple of reversals, maybe a baseline dump, back to the high post....shot or dump back to baseline.  Butler wins.  We put Zeller there.  First move of that game, he drives from that spot into the zone, gets his shot blocked, and we struggle the whole game.  Zeller hadn't taken 8 jump shots from there in his 2 seasons.  Why was he in that spot?  That's what happened.  Eyes see what happens.

Crean's been at Indiana 9 seasons.  In season 6-9, his Big Ten finishes have been 8th, 7th, 1st, 10th.  Which is the fluke?  Bob Knight set the standard at Indiana.  Like it or not; he did.  In years 6-9 with him?  5th, 2nd, 2nd, 1st.  Which is the fluke?

I am really tired of any argument that says we need a big name coach or one of a very small list.  We do not need Donovan or Archie.  I'd love Stevens.  We'd ALL love Stevens.  But he's not coming.  Ship's sailed.  We need a great basketball coach.  He can be from DII for all I care.  There are a TON of great basketball minds out there.  Crean simply isn't one of them.  Crean has been past the sweet 16 once in 18 seasons.  That's not good enough at Indiana.  Sorry.  It's not.

Edit :  If any IU fan will accept that there will be "a few down years," they should go root for Illinois.  If Indiana is indeed a traditional blue blood and an elite program a la Duke, UNC, Kansas, Kentucky..."a few down years" will and should NOT be accepted.   I completely reject that.  Duke hasn't had a "down year" since 1983.  North Carolina hasn't had one since 2003, and when they had a couple by their standards within 3 seasons (and STILL didn't miss the tournament), they fired their coach.   Kansas' last "down season" was 1989.  Why do we accept 3 down seasons in 4 and give our coach a pass?    I simply don't get it.

 

 

[Fulkme15]

The problem with this is the eyeball test.  What do we see?

1)  Turnovers are not okay.  Bad shots are not okay.  Poor defense is not okay.  Lack of movement is not okay.   Kids not paying attention is not okay.  Complete lack of discipline is not okay. Everything off the dribble doesn't win consistently without superior talent.  I don't care what Dan Dakich says, much of this is on the coach.

2)  The Syracuse game is mentioned above.  Butler had beaten that zone the year before with Shelvin Mack stationed at the FT line.  A kid who can make a 15 foot jump shot.  And DID.  Couple of reversals, maybe a baseline dump, back to the high post....shot or dump back to baseline.  Butler wins.  We put Zeller there.  First move of that game, he drives from that spot into the zone, gets his shot blocked, and we struggle the whole game.  Zeller hadn't taken 8 jump shots from there in his 2 seasons.  Why was he in that spot?  That's what happened.  Eyes see what happens.

Crean's been at Indiana 9 seasons.  In season 6-9, his Big Ten finishes have been 8th, 7th, 1st, 10th.  Which is the fluke?  Bob Knight set the standard at Indiana.  Like it or not; he did.  In years 6-9 with him?  5th, 2nd, 2nd, 1st.  Which is the fluke?

I am really tired of any argument that says we need a big name coach or one of a very small list.  We do not need Donovan or Archie.  I'd love Stevens.  We'd ALL love Stevens.  But he's not coming.  Ship's sailed.  We need a great basketball coach.  He can be from DII for all I care.  There are a TON of great basketball minds out there.  Crean simply isn't one of them.  Crean has been past the sweet 16 once in 18 seasons.  That's not good enough at Indiana.  Sorry.  It's not.

 

I agree with most of your post especially the first 3 paragraphs. But Crean isn't as bad as all of us ( including myself) put him out too be. He brought us up from a dumpster fire. Can he get us to the next level? NO. But he is better then our 4th or 5th option of a head coach. That's why I think we need to be careful who our next coach is, we're not in a position where we can take a chance. If we make the wrong hire, we're right back where we started when Crean got here


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[Hoosierfan2017]

45 minutes ago, Old Friend said:

The problem with this is the eyeball test.  What do we see?

1)  Turnovers are not okay.  Bad shots are not okay.  Poor defense is not okay.  Lack of movement is not okay.   Kids not paying attention is not okay.  Complete lack of discipline is not okay. Everything off the dribble doesn't win consistently without superior talent.  I don't care what Dan Dakich says, much of this is on the coach.

2)  The Syracuse game is mentioned above.  Butler had beaten that zone the year before with Shelvin Mack stationed at the FT line.  A kid who can make a 15 foot jump shot.  And DID.  Couple of reversals, maybe a baseline dump, back to the high post....shot or dump back to baseline.  Butler wins.  We put Zeller there.  First move of that game, he drives from that spot into the zone, gets his shot blocked, and we struggle the whole game.  Zeller hadn't taken 8 jump shots from there in his 2 seasons.  Why was he in that spot?  That's what happened.  Eyes see what happens.

Crean's been at Indiana 9 seasons.  In season 6-9, his Big Ten finishes have been 8th, 7th, 1st, 10th.  Which is the fluke?  Bob Knight set the standard at Indiana.  Like it or not; he did.  In years 6-9 with him?  5th, 2nd, 2nd, 1st.  Which is the fluke?

I am really tired of any argument that says we need a big name coach or one of a very small list.  We do not need Donovan or Archie.  I'd love Stevens.  We'd ALL love Stevens.  But he's not coming.  Ship's sailed.  We need a great basketball coach.  He can be from DII for all I care.  There are a TON of great basketball minds out there.  Crean simply isn't one of them.  Crean has been past the sweet 16 once in 18 seasons.  That's not good enough at Indiana.  Sorry.  It's not.

Edit :  If any IU fan will accept that there will be "a few down years," they should go root for Illinois.  If Indiana is indeed a traditional blue blood and an elite program a la Duke, UNC, Kansas, Kentucky..."a few down years" will and should NOT be accepted.   I completely reject that.  Duke hasn't had a "down year" since 1983.  North Carolina hasn't had one since 2003, and when they had a couple by their standards within 3 seasons (and STILL didn't miss the tournament), they fired their coach.   Kansas' last "down season" was 1989.  Why do we accept 3 down seasons in 4 and give our coach a pass?    I simply don't get it.

 

 

Down years for me are finishing in the 4-6 range in the Big 10 and getting bounced during the first weekend. While it'd be nice to have a team capable of winning a championship every single year, I don't think it's realistic to expect. No one does that. Missing the tournament 2-3 years in a 5 year span goes way beyond "down years" and should be unacceptable. 

[Yogi'sBicep]

I want this taken down, MODS. 

#triggered 

[Dalton26]

The mess I just made in the work bathroom is a better option.

 

7 hours ago, Yogi'sBicep said:

I want this taken down, MODS. 

#triggered 

Unfortunately this is one persons posts I refuse to take down. lol

[Yogi'sBicep]

6 minutes ago, Dalton26 said:

The mess I just made in the work bathroom is a better option.

 

Unfortunately this is one persons posts I refuse to take down. lol

#NotMyForum

[hsrtxp]

If CTC stays we should all get shirts that say "not my coach".


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[bleedhoosier]

This is a great discussion. Really is. I'm just thinking, what if Tom Crean was/is exhausted from this project in his own way and he has already been making moves himself? The perception is that we are doing everything we can do get him out. Maybe he already wanted out? I'm saying maybe he isn't the right guy because he doesn't want to be the guy. It's all too much for him. Maybe a connection with failing so many recruiting options this past 1-2 years.

If 2 years ago we truly were talking with Donovan, Crean may have already started making inroads, outta here.

In my head, so many discussion points come from the perspective, what is a lateral hire or upgrade or homerun. "Lets keep Crean for one more year." None of that may matter because Crean is packing his own bags to get away from us rabid fans lol

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[recker222000]

 

My uncle sent this to me in email, thought I'd throw it up here as it definitely makes you think...

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"As I’ve said before, I hope Indiana has a new coach next year. There are plenty of arguments in favor of this. For me, it’s simple. We need a great coach. I don’t think Crean, today, is a great coach. He’s still young and he could grow into a great coach - but that seems less likely than IU’s ability to hire a great coach (or to hire someone who will become a great coach).

 

The national perception of Tom Crean is very, very different than how IU fans feel about him. That should give us all some pause. On the one hand, we could argue that no one else follows the program as closely as IU fans, so we’re in a better place to evaluate Crean than anyone else. But I don’t think that’s true. We’re so emotionally invested and biased that it’s really hard for us to be reasonable. I think the best example of this is:

 

Syracuse - 61, Indiana - 50

 

That was the first genuine, national title contending team that IU has had in 25 years. Losing in the Sweet Sixteen to Syracuse was just awful... emotionally. IU fans still haven’t gotten over it. I loved that team. To have Oladipo, Zeller, Watford, and Hulls go out like that made me sick to my stomach. None of us were ready for that season to end.

 

But from a basketball sense, a 1 seed losing to a 4 seed is so commonplace that it’s not even noteworthy. 1 in 3 one seeds do not make it past the Sweet Sixteen. It says nothing about Tom Crean’s coaching ability. It was one freaking game. Sure, other than the Final Four in 2003, Crean has not been past the S16 in all his other years, which isn’t encouraging. But that’s because his teams haven’t been high seeds. Indiana was a clear underdog in his other 3 tournament losses. In fact, you have to go all the way back to 2002 and his first trip to the NCAA tournament to find a real upset, when 5 seed Marquette lost to 12 seed Tulsa. Oh, and 12 seeds beat 5 seeds 64% of the time.

 

So let’s imagine a world where we’re wrong about Crean. A world where Indiana’s best chance of success over the next 10 years is to keep Tom Crean. How could that be true? I think it’s pretty easy to imagine.

 

1. We need to acknowledge that winning outright B10 titles is hard. Doing it twice with two completely different rosters over a 4 year period is really hard. And both times Indiana did it, the top of the B10 was really strong. We didn’t just back into the title in an off year for the B10 (like Purdue does). That says a lot about Crean’s ability to build high performing teams.

 

2. One clear trend throughout Crean’s tenure is Indiana’s ability to beat the best teams. Even his first 3 seasons, IU often played best against the best teams (in losing efforts). We’ve also seen IU lose games they shouldn’t. Although this is a bit overblown (all teams get upset occasionally), it still seems too common to me. But I think that’s an easier problem to fix than an inability to beat the best teams.

 

3. In the last six years, Indiana has had strong teams 3 times. Those 3 teams are really, really close to being what IU fans want in our “up” seasons. A couple more NCAA wins is all that separates them from meeting our very high expectations. There’s really no reason to think that Crean can’t reach those expectations in the future.

 

4. In the last six years, Indiana has had weak teams three times. I know from reading a thousand posts on here that most people accept that IU will occasionally have down years. The issue is that our down years are more down than we expect. Missing the tournament completely twice is not acceptable. More than anything else, it’s this inconsistency that drive fans crazy. But even here, Indiana is not that far from being good enough in our down years. We made the tournament in 2015. And as frustrating as this season has been, I think we’re better than several teams that will get at-large bids. With the injuries, close losses, schedule, and youth, a reasonable person could look at this season and conclude that it’s an aberration, not a trend. And I think Crean made some notable recruiting mistakes, from a personality standpoint, that hurt the 2014 and 2015 teams - which has been corrected, from what I can tell.

 

5. “Turnovers and lack of fundamentals! They prove Crean can’t coach!!” Actually, this is easy to argue against. Here goes: IU fans don’t understand basketball. Even worse, they don’t understand basketball in ways that specifically prejudice them against Crean’s style. For example, a low turnover percentage simply isn’t all that important. I could write a whole post about this, but this is really a key point - your eyes might be lying to you. Tom Crean has had the #3, #9, and #11 ranked teams in the country - do you really think those teams did not have good fundamentals? If so, maybe you’re looking at the wrong things. “But wait,” you say, “Indiana has not had good fundamentals this year, and in 2014 and 2015, you moron!” I agree. You know why? Because those teams weren’t very good. There seems to be this weird belief among IU fans that’s it’s okay to have down seasons... as long as the team plays well in their losses. I’ll just leave it at that.

 

6. Bad defense. I admit, I’m grasping at straws on this one. It’s true that our defense has been pretty good (2013, 2014) or decent (2012, 2016) in 4 of the last six years. But I’ll never be able to forgive the Defensive Abomination of 2015. It was so bad I have to use capital letters. And each season I think our defense should be better than it is, given our personnel. So how to make the argument in favor of Crean here? I only see one way: He needs to let go of his ego, admit he needs help, and either listen to his assistants or bring in an assistant who can turn around the defense. This is big, because defense is the only thing preventing IU from being truly elite.

 

7. Last but not least - it’s possible that through back channel communication, Glass knows that he’s not going to be able to get any of his home run hires, and all the other candidates have quite a bit of risk with them. So Glass is not comparing Crean to Bennett or Donovan or Marshall.... he’s comparing Crean to Alford and Mack and Holtmann. I know plenty of IU fans would love one of those guys, but IMO it’s at best even probability that they’ll be better than Crean.

 

To be clear, I’m imagining how we could be wrong, not advocating to keep Crean. I think Crean is closer to being good enough than most IU fans do, from what I can tell, but I’m still ready for a change.... I just think I could be wrong. "

 

EDIT:  It appears he just yanked this off Peegs from a guy named IUTerry... unless my uncle is IUTerry? lol

 

 

 

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I dont have time to read all that but if he is as good as we can get we are doomed

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