Expectations for the 24-25 Season

[Golfman25 5,307]

1 hour ago, Uspshoosier said:

This program has been down for 25 years not sure how much further down they got to go for people to realize that.  Doesn’t matter how much money is spent nothing is guaranteed.  The program you are invested in is right now a middle of the pack B1G team trying to gain momentum to try and get back to where they once were.  People talking about bar being low with 23 wins however past History tells you that the last  time IU won over 23 games was 2014-15.  Reality stinks but that’s where this program is right now no matter how much money is being spent 

Actually, last time was 2015-16.  Crean won more than 23 games 3 times -- 27 (2011-12), 29 (2012-13) and 27 (2015-16).  Each time made the sweet 16.  Twice won the big10 championship. 

With this portal haul, are we not at least at that level?   If not, what's it going to take?  

[IUc2016 7,121]

2 minutes ago, Golfman25 said:

Actually, last time was 2015-16.  Crean won more the 23 games 3 times -- 27 (2011-12), 29 (2012-13) and 27 (2015-16).  Each time made the sweet 16.  Twice won the big10 championship. 

With this portal haul, are we not at least at that level?   If not, what's it going to take?  

I’m really confused by your takes. You laugh at everyone who is excited about this “portal haul” yet you have the highest expectations of anyone? and don’t give me this, I want to be the best crap, it’s nonsense.

You are telling us you’re here to temper expectations, yet also saying we should be better than we have been in 25 years. so why are you speaking out of both sides of your mouth? Or do you not realize you are doing that? 

[Uspshoosier 45,572]

9 minutes ago, Golfman25 said:

Actually, last time was 2015-16.  Crean won more than 23 games 3 times -- 27 (2011-12), 29 (2012-13) and 27 (2015-16).  Each time made the sweet 16.  Twice won the big10 championship. 

With this portal haul, are we not at least at that level?   If not, what's it going to take?  

Those were fun seasons to follow however the 6 other seasons where Crean didn’t have a winning conference record kind of stunk.  Going to take more than 1 season of portal haul to be a consistently good program.   Crean had some good years but only 1 time did he have 2 years in a row where he had a winning conference record.   

[str8baller 5,209]

1 hour ago, Uspshoosier said:

This program has been down for 25 years not sure how much further down they got to go for people to realize that.  Doesn’t matter how much money is spent nothing is guaranteed.  The program you are invested in is right now a middle of the pack B1G team trying to gain momentum to try and get back to where they once were.  People talking about bar being low with 23 wins however past History tells you that the last  time IU won over 23 games was 2014-15.  Reality stinks but that’s where this program is right now no matter how much money is being spent 

I’ve thought about this thread and I kind of go back and forth. On one hand, I probably shouldn’t expect much because of woody and all the things you mention. Otoh, I see a top 10-15ish roster and think maybe we should expect that.  
 

After 25 lackluster years I think I’ve come to the following sad reality about IU basketball: I expect very little to nothing from this program. 

[Golfman25 5,307]

34 minutes ago, IUc2016 said:

I’m really confused by your takes. You laugh at everyone who is excited about this “portal haul” yet you have the highest expectations of anyone? and don’t give me this, I want to be the best crap, it’s nonsense.

You are telling us you’re here to temper expectations, yet also saying we should be better than we have been in 25 years. so why are you speaking out of both sides of your mouth? Or do you not realize you are doing that? 

I am not laughing at anybody.  But it's split personality -- optimist vs. pessimist.  

Reasons for optimism:

1) The fact is we have a top, if not the top, portal class.

2) The fact is we have 3 players ranked within the top 25 of portal players (a rarity in and of itself).

3) The "core" of Gallo, Malik, MM return.  

4) Replaced a de-comitted 5* with another 5*.  

So, giving Woodson all the benefit of the doubt, that is what my expectations are based on.  Those are all facts and pieces in place.  Is that not a Big10 Championship team?  As I asked above, who beats us?  

 

But then the pessimism: 

1) Guards have to make the jump to 35%+ from 3.  

2) Have we solved the 3-point defensive problems?  Is that personnel or systemic?  

3) Does the middle get clogged up with Malik and Ballo (a la Race and Trace), not giving the new dynamic guards driving lanes?

4) Can this new and young team learn to play together and gel in the short time they have before the season starts?

5) Will the Woodson offensive/defensive systems really work at the college level?

6) Why did we have a de-commit -- Is there an underlying problem?

7) Are some of these dudes just here to get paid, or will they give it their all to represent the name on the front?  

These are unknowns right now.  If the answers to these are positive, then the sky is the limit.  We should be unstoppable, should we not?  

So why aren't we Big10 Champions?  

[Uspshoosier 45,572]

4 minutes ago, Golfman25 said:

These are unknowns right now.  If the answers to these are positive, then the sky is the limit.  We should be unstoppable, should we not?  

So why aren't we Big10 Champions?  

Another team has a better record,  other teams bringing in options to make their team better, best team on paper doesnt always win,  injuries to key players, bad coaching, players not living up to their portal ranking,  another team exceeds expections 

[Golfman25 5,307]

1 hour ago, Uspshoosier said:

Another team has a better record,  other teams bringing in options to make their team better, best team on paper doesnt always win,  injuries to key players, bad coaching, players not living up to their portal ranking,  another team exceeds expections 

So you expect that all to happen?  

[Stuhoo 80,463]

1 hour ago, Golfman25 said:

I am not laughing at anybody.  But it's split personality -- optimist vs. pessimist.  

Reasons for optimism:

1) The fact is we have a top, if not the top, portal class.

2) The fact is we have 3 players ranked within the top 25 of portal players (a rarity in and of itself).

3) The "core" of Gallo, Malik, MM return.  

4) Replaced a de-comitted 5* with another 5*.  

So, giving Woodson all the benefit of the doubt, that is what my expectations are based on.  Those are all facts and pieces in place.  Is that not a Big10 Championship team?  As I asked above, who beats us?  

 

But then the pessimism: 

1) Guards have to make the jump to 35%+ from 3.  

2) Have we solved the 3-point defensive problems?  Is that personnel or systemic?  

3) Does the middle get clogged up with Malik and Ballo (a la Race and Trace), not giving the new dynamic guards driving lanes?

4) Can this new and young team learn to play together and gel in the short time they have before the season starts?

5) Will the Woodson offensive/defensive systems really work at the college level?

6) Why did we have a de-commit -- Is there an underlying problem?

7) Are some of these dudes just here to get paid, or will they give it their all to represent the name on the front?  

These are unknowns right now.  If the answers to these are positive, then the sky is the limit.  We should be unstoppable, should we not?  

So why aren't we Big10 Champions?  

You laid out an excellent summary of the positive and negative possibilities.

The reality will be that many of both the positives and negatives will appear on given days in varying degrees.

That’s why it’s so interesting!

[Uspshoosier 45,572]

13 minutes ago, Golfman25 said:

So you expect that all to happen?  

No idea it’s only April 

[OKHOOSIER 2,165]

I have baseline expectations every year and I think they apply here with all the unknowns. 23ish wins, in the hunt for the B1G, Saturday or Sunday in the BTT and a competent showing in the tournament. Personnel changes can alter that up or down, but that is my basic belief the standard should be based on my experience as a childhood IU fan, then student, and as alumni. Most of my life IU has been mediocre, I am used to it so it is hard for me to project or expect a SS or deeper run no matter who we have on the roster. That said, I do have a couple of 24-25 specific things I expect based on the current state of the program:

1. Exactly Zero losses of 20+ and I would prefer zero of 15+. Getting pantsed by every ranked team on the schedule is unacceptable to me.

2. MM, Rice and KC to push their 3pt averages closer to 35% as Sophomores. If that happens (or better) this team could be special-- additional shooter portal ads notwithstanding. 

3. BTT champion. It has to happen sooner or later, and the B1G is as down as ever IMO we can get it done this year. 

4. Woody has to make the second weekend. You cannot spend 6 Million on roster construction and lay an egg in March. His job depends on it. I have no interest in hearing excuses about new pieces and gelling and whatever other coach speak by the time B1G play starts. Everyone is turning over large numbers of their roster, yes we are on the high end, but I simply do not care. The staff is paid to construct the roster and get it to work, and that is what I expect them to do. 

[68Hoosier 514]

16 hours ago, Chris007 said:

23 wins with this roster is kind of setting the bar a little low

Do you know our coaching staff, LOL

to be fair, they will lose 2 or 3 just from that standpoint. 

 

[Certified Sunshine Pumper 9,073]

2 hours ago, OKHOOSIER said:

I have baseline expectations every year and I think they apply here with all the unknowns. 23ish wins, in the hunt for the B1G, Saturday or Sunday in the BTT and a competent showing in the tournament. Personnel changes can alter that up or down, but that is my basic belief the standard should be based on my experience as a childhood IU fan, then student, and as alumni. Most of my life IU has been mediocre, I am used to it so it is hard for me to project or expect a SS or deeper run no matter who we have on the roster. That said, I do have a couple of 24-25 specific things I expect based on the current state of the program:

1. Exactly Zero losses of 20+ and I would prefer zero of 15+. Getting pantsed by every ranked team on the schedule is unacceptable to me.

2. MM, Rice and KC to push their 3pt averages closer to 35% as Sophomores. If that happens (or better) this team could be special-- additional shooter portal ads notwithstanding. 

3. BTT champion. It has to happen sooner or later, and the B1G is as down as ever IMO we can get it done this year. 

4. Woody has to make the second weekend. You cannot spend 6 Million on roster construction and lay an egg in March. His job depends on it. I have no interest in hearing excuses about new pieces and gelling and whatever other coach speak by the time B1G play starts. Everyone is turning over large numbers of their roster, yes we are on the high end, but I simply do not care. The staff is paid to construct the roster and get it to work, and that is what I expect them to do. 

MM shot 37.8% in conference play next year... 35% would be a regression. 

KC was over 34% in conference games

[OKHOOSIER 2,165]

5 minutes ago, btownqb said:

MM shot 37.8% in conference play next year... 35% would be a regression. 

KC was over 34% in conference games

They both shot 32% on the season. 35 is simply an attainable target number. If I had said 40+ someone would have come in with a comment about ridiculous expectations. I am not parsing out game by game numbers, if the three of them average 35 or more on the season, we are going to win a bunch of basketball games. 

[Certified Sunshine Pumper 9,073]

2 minutes ago, OKHOOSIER said:

They both shot 32% on the season. 35 is simply an attainable target number. If I had said 40+ someone would have come in with a comment about ridiculous expectations. I am not parsing out game by game numbers, if the three of them average 35 or more on the season, we are going to win a bunch of basketball games. 

I'll be pretty disappointed if KC and MM only shoot 35%. 

[OKHOOSIER 2,165]

1 minute ago, btownqb said:

I'll be pretty disappointed if KC and MM only shoot 35%. 

The catch and shoot numbers for KC are certainly exciting since paired with Gallo and Rice he won't have to be creating his own shot as much as at Stanford. I watched some tape and their offense was horrendous (Silva transferred before the season so I think they were thin at PG). He was forced into the dribbling into long twos we all hate due to how stagnant it was. Hopefully surrounded by other ball handlers we can really see him blossom. 

[IUCrazy2 2,364]

14 hours ago, IUc2016 said:

I’m really confused by your takes. You laugh at everyone who is excited about this “portal haul” yet you have the highest expectations of anyone? and don’t give me this, I want to be the best crap, it’s nonsense.

You are telling us you’re here to temper expectations, yet also saying we should be better than we have been in 25 years. so why are you speaking out of both sides of your mouth? Or do you not realize you are doing that? 

I will answer that for me.  On paper, we once again are going to have one of the most talented teams in the league.  In the portal we have "fixed" our guard and shooting issue.  We have 2 returning Freshmen of the year on our roster.   We will be starting multiple 5* players.  We have an abundance of riches.  If this team was at Purdue they would be thinking winning the BIG and making a bunch of noise in tournament.

The only reason to temper expectations is because we think Mike Woodson is an anchor.  The floor for this roster should be around 23 wins.  All the things that people have said were holding Woodson back (besides himself) have been addressed in the portal.  People are short selling expectations exactly because they believe that Woodson is an anchor on expectations.

[Certified Sunshine Pumper 9,073]

12 hours ago, Golfman25 said:

I am not laughing at anybody.  But it's split personality -- optimist vs. pessimist.  

Reasons for optimism:

1) The fact is we have a top, if not the top, portal class.

2) The fact is we have 3 players ranked within the top 25 of portal players (a rarity in and of itself).

3) The "core" of Gallo, Malik, MM return.  

4) Replaced a de-comitted 5* with another 5*.  

So, giving Woodson all the benefit of the doubt, that is what my expectations are based on.  Those are all facts and pieces in place.  Is that not a Big10 Championship team?  As I asked above, who beats us?  

 

But then the pessimism: 

1) Guards have to make the jump to 35%+ from 3.  

2) Have we solved the 3-point defensive problems?  Is that personnel or systemic?  

3) Does the middle get clogged up with Malik and Ballo (a la Race and Trace), not giving the new dynamic guards driving lanes?

4) Can this new and young team learn to play together and gel in the short time they have before the season starts?

5) Will the Woodson offensive/defensive systems really work at the college level?

6) Why did we have a de-commit -- Is there an underlying problem?

7) Are some of these dudes just here to get paid, or will they give it their all to represent the name on the front?  

These are unknowns right now.  If the answers to these are positive, then the sky is the limit.  We should be unstoppable, should we not?  

So why aren't we Big10 Champions?  

#1 isn't true 

#2 is a worry--- Rice, KC aren't poor defenders, though, and I love the addition of Ballo defensively, and DEFENSIVE REB

#3 ehh

#4 very worried about that, in fact, my biggest worry, don't consider them overly young though, and won't subscribe to that as an excuse

#5 ehh

#6 you didn't pick up the phone for little Liam? 

#7 who cares? UK, KU, Duke, and UNC have been paying (allegedly) guys for years and they play hard for them? These kids can't just mail it in because they're getting a fat check, they want to play in the league...

There are always unknowns. 

 

[Uspshoosier 45,572]

20 minutes ago, btownqb said:

#6 you didn't pick up the phone for little Liam? 

This one will become more common in today college basketball.    Kansas just lost one yesterday and St Mary’s lost one the day before.  Combination of things now will make it more common.   Kid getting mad the team is looking in the portal, some back channeling and kid finds out he can make more money, kid didn’t like direction of program and opted to look elsewhere.    You kids telling staffs they are committed to coming back and make a graphic to tell true fans they are coming back just to turn around and a few weeks later enter the portal 

[Golfman25 5,307]

38 minutes ago, IUCrazy2 said:

I will answer that for me.  On paper, we once again are going to have one of the most talented teams in the league.  In the portal we have "fixed" our guard and shooting issue.  We have 2 returning Freshmen of the year on our roster.   We will be starting multiple 5* players.  We have an abundance of riches.  If this team was at Purdue they would be thinking winning the BIG and making a bunch of noise in tournament.

The only reason to temper expectations is because we think Mike Woodson is an anchor.  The floor for this roster should be around 23 wins.  All the things that people have said were holding Woodson back (besides himself) have been addressed in the portal.  People are short selling expectations exactly because they believe that Woodson is an anchor on expectations.

Yeah, that's the thing.  Seems some are giving "credit" to Mike Woodson and lowering their "expectations" accordingly.  I myself am raising expectations -- he either meets them or not.  

[Uspshoosier 45,572]

IU could could win 23 games and still not meet expectations or IU could only win 20 games and meet people expectations.   If IU won 23 but 18 of them were against Q3 and Q4 teams then that’s not good enough in my opinion and might not have the resume to make the tourney however if IU only won 20 games but 18 of them were Q1 and Q2 wins then they probably had a solid year