NCAA MBB Transfer Portal

[Honkyman]

1 hour ago, Stromboli said:

he just doesn’t look for his own shot much.

Though 1st on the team in 3-point shooting percentage, Galloway was 4th in the 3-point attempts. On the one hand, Galloway is the ultimate team player and rarely tries to force a shot. On the other hand, he tends to pass up more than a few open shots. The real problem with Galloway as a starter is that he has been injury prone and also tends to foul quite a bit. If IU doesn't land a good perimeter shooter from the transfer portal, Galloway starting means that unproven players will be backup at the shooting guard spot. Yes, Newton and Gunn will get more chances to prove themselves. But if they aren't up to it, the team will have problems in conference play whenever Galloway has to go to the bench.

[RaceToTheTop]

Here is what I currently project in terms of # of three pointers take using Torvik's analysis as a guide:

• Xavier Johnson:  4 three point attempts/game, makes 39%
• Mgbako:  3.2 attempts per game, makes 36%
• Galloway:  2 attempts per game, make 45%
• Ware:  1.6 attempts per game, make 29%
• Cupps:  1.5 attempts per game, make 40%
• Newton:  1.2 attempts per game, make 36%
• Banks:  0.5 attempts per game, make 40%
• Reneau:  0.3 attempts per game, make 27%
• Walker:  0.3 attempts per game, make 13%
• Sparks:  0.1 attempts per game, make 39%

That group would make 37% of their threes but only take 14.7 threes per game.  Gunn in the rotation would increase the number of threes taken some but it's still a pretty low number of threes taken.  Mgbako and Cupps could be taking more threes than I've listed -- their numbers are based on other players who statistically came in as freshman to power 5 teams that were ranked the same and played the same position and had similar size.  Mgbako's size would typically produce a player who takes fewer threes than Mgbako will likely take (I have Mgbako taking 10 shots per game, 3.2 of which are threes, and averaging 12 points and 6 boards in 31 minutes).

Unless Mgbako is a bulk three point shooter, right now I see a similar issue that could occur next year with the current group.  If, however, anyone one of several options (Galloway, Cupps, Gunn) are able to have a heavier workload from the perimeter, the offense is now able to both stretch the floor and be pretty mobile.

[RaceToTheTop]

Trilly Donovan implying that Jahvon Quinerly of Alabama might hit the portal.  6'1" guard, last year averaged 8.7 ppg, 1.9 rpg, and 3.6 apg.  Shot 40/36/82.  Has had an up and down career from three.  Played at Villanova as a freshman and only hit 12 of 48 (25%).  Was deadly as a sophomore at Alabama, hitting 52 of 120 (43%) while averaging 12.9 ppg.  Shooting dropped down as a junior as he hit 28% from three but averaged almost 14 ppg.  In total, has made 160 of 475 from three (34%).

Separately, Trilly stating that Ray J Dennis of Toledo was almost ready to commit to Utah but now Illinois is back in the mix as is Baylor.  Should be announcing by the end of the week.

[bigrod]

28 minutes ago, RaceToTheTop said:

Here is what I currently project in terms of # of three pointers take using Torvik's analysis as a guide:

• Xavier Johnson:  4 three point attempts/game, makes 39%
• Mgbako:  3.2 attempts per game, makes 36%
• Galloway:  2 attempts per game, make 45%
• Ware:  1.6 attempts per game, make 29%
• Cupps:  1.5 attempts per game, make 40%
• Newton:  1.2 attempts per game, make 36%
• Banks:  0.5 attempts per game, make 40%
• Reneau:  0.3 attempts per game, make 27%
• Walker:  0.3 attempts per game, make 13%
• Sparks:  0.1 attempts per game, make 39%

That group would make 37% of their threes but only take 14.7 threes per game.  Gunn in the rotation would increase the number of threes taken some but it's still a pretty low number of threes taken.  Mgbako and Cupps could be taking more threes than I've listed -- their numbers are based on other players who statistically came in as freshman to power 5 teams that were ranked the same and played the same position and had similar size.  Mgbako's size would typically produce a player who takes fewer threes than Mgbako will likely take (I have Mgbako taking 10 shots per game, 3.2 of which are threes, and averaging 12 points and 6 boards in 31 minutes).

Unless Mgbako is a bulk three point shooter, right now I see a similar issue that could occur next year with the current group.  If, however, anyone one of several options (Galloway, Cupps, Gunn) are able to have a heavier workload from the perimeter, the offense is now able to both stretch the floor and be pretty mobile.

Just a guess on my part, but I feel like part of the reason Ware came to IU is that Woody told him he would allow him to play more out on the floor. It wouldn't surprise me at all if he takes 3-4 a game. They seem to have a pretty flexible front court in that they are big enough and skilled enough to move under the basket and out on the floor, with Reneau/Sparks probably staying under the basket a little more than Mgbako, Ware, and Banks.

[HoosierHoopster]

36 minutes ago, RaceToTheTop said:

Here is what I currently project in terms of # of three pointers take using Torvik's analysis as a guide:

• Xavier Johnson:  4 three point attempts/game, makes 39%
• Mgbako:  3.2 attempts per game, makes 36%
• Galloway:  2 attempts per game, make 45%
• Ware:  1.6 attempts per game, make 29%
• Cupps:  1.5 attempts per game, make 40%
• Newton:  1.2 attempts per game, make 36%
• Banks:  0.5 attempts per game, make 40%
• Reneau:  0.3 attempts per game, make 27%
• Walker:  0.3 attempts per game, make 13%
• Sparks:  0.1 attempts per game, make 39%

That group would make 37% of their threes but only take 14.7 threes per game.  Gunn in the rotation would increase the number of threes taken some but it's still a pretty low number of threes taken.  Mgbako and Cupps could be taking more threes than I've listed -- their numbers are based on other players who statistically came in as freshman to power 5 teams that were ranked the same and played the same position and had similar size.  Mgbako's size would typically produce a player who takes fewer threes than Mgbako will likely take (I have Mgbako taking 10 shots per game, 3.2 of which are threes, and averaging 12 points and 6 boards in 31 minutes).

Unless Mgbako is a bulk three point shooter, right now I see a similar issue that could occur next year with the current group.  If, however, anyone one of several options (Galloway, Cupps, Gunn) are able to have a heavier workload from the perimeter, the offense is now able to both stretch the floor and be pretty mobile.

4 per game by X seems high to me. Per sports-reference he averaged 2.5 per game this past season. I would think he'll average around 3 and Mgbako more than 3.2 (Kopp averaged 4.1). JHS was at 3.5 per game. Gallo only averaged 2.0 while Bates was at 2.8. Have to think Gallo will increase his takes and with a more outside oriented offense some others will step up the outside takes.

[RaceToTheTop]

16 minutes ago, HoosierHoopster said:

4 per game by X seems high to me. Per sports-reference he averaged 2.5 per game this past season. I would think he'll average around 3 and Mgbako more than 3.2 (Kopp averaged 4.1). JHS was at 3.5 per game. Gallo only averaged 2.0 while Bates was at 2.8. Have to think Gallo will increase his takes and with a more outside oriented offense some others will step up the outside takes.

4 would be the ceiling for number of attempts for X IMO.  The numbers I posted weren't really my thoughts, but rather my estimations based on what Torvik says:

1.  More court time/game.  Torvik has X leading the team in minutes at around 32 min/game.

2.  History of three point attempts.  X's three point shots/game were lower than his career average.

3.  I don't tend to use Torvik's estimated usage numbers -- instead I take into account increased efficiency numbers to result in increased usage.  Torvik estimates X having an increase in efficiency of about 5% overall (I equate this to an increase in three point shooting percentage going from 37% to 38.5% next year).

So basically, Torvik sees a 28% increase in minutes/game for X, a 5% increase in efficiency, and a predicted higher average three point shots per minute since 2022-23 represented a drop from what he had done in the past.

[HoosierHoopster]

38 minutes ago, RaceToTheTop said:

4 would be the ceiling for number of attempts for X IMO.  The numbers I posted weren't really my thoughts, but rather my estimations based on what Torvik says:

1.  More court time/game.  Torvik has X leading the team in minutes at around 32 min/game.

2.  History of three point attempts.  X's three point shots/game were lower than his career average.

3.  I don't tend to use Torvik's estimated usage numbers -- instead I take into account increased efficiency numbers to result in increased usage.  Torvik estimates X having an increase in efficiency of about 5% overall (I equate this to an increase in three point shooting percentage going from 37% to 38.5% next year).

So basically, Torvik sees a 28% increase in minutes/game for X, a 5% increase in efficiency, and a predicted higher average three point shots per minute since 2022-23 represented a drop from what he had done in the past.

Yes I realize you were just posting Torvik estimates - I was in turn just giving my thoughts on those and numbers that seem to me to be more reasonable based on last year's shooting numbers, who's leaving and who's coming in. Tend to think Mgbacko is going to fill more of the shooting in place of Kopp, but that's just based on what I've read on Mgbacko, obviously don't know more than that at this point. My thinking on Gallo is part hopeful thinking, he improved his shooting and selection so much this past season, if we are moving to more of an outside-shooting O on volume (and I really, really hope we are), would hope/think he'd up his shot takes this season.

[HoosierFan1994]

5 hours ago, Stromboli said:

The more I think about it the more I like Galloway starting at the 2. He’s very efficient when he does shoot, he just doesn’t look for his own shot much. And then he does everything else well. Isn’t that somewhat ideal? We have plenty of guys who will be hunting their own shots. Usage will never be even, and isn’t really intended to be. If Trey keeps hitting over 40% when he does take a 3, and drives when the right opportunity is there, his skill set is about ideal, no?

If Trey could go from around 6.5 ppg to about 9-10, I'd really like him. Trey finished the year with 6 straight games without reaching double figures. If you want to be a legit contender, I don't think your 2 guard can go 6 straight games without scoring at least 10 points...especially in March. One thing that's true, Trey is a hard worker. I have no doubt he will get better. But I also understand the need/want for IU to get a transfer at that spot. 

[IUFAN1976]

7 hours ago, Stromboli said:

The more I think about it the more I like Galloway starting at the 2. He’s very efficient when he does shoot, he just doesn’t look for his own shot much. And then he does everything else well. Isn’t that somewhat ideal? We have plenty of guys who will be hunting their own shots. Usage will never be even, and isn’t really intended to be. If Trey keeps hitting over 40% when he does take a 3, and drives when the right opportunity is there, his skill set is about ideal, no?

I agree with HoosierFan1994.  Galloway can play the 2 but he will have to average around 10 points per game, if he can do that, I think we will be a decent team with Galloway playing the 2.

I am for Galloway playing the 2 more than I am getting someone that is in the portal currently!  

[Scotty R]

4 hours ago, RaceToTheTop said:

Trilly Donovan implying that Jahvon Quinerly of Alabama might hit the portal.  6'1" guard, last year averaged 8.7 ppg, 1.9 rpg, and 3.6 apg.  Shot 40/36/82.  Has had an up and down career from three.  Played at Villanova as a freshman and only hit 12 of 48 (25%).  Was deadly as a sophomore at Alabama, hitting 52 of 120 (43%) while averaging 12.9 ppg.  Shooting dropped down as a junior as he hit 28% from three but averaged almost 14 ppg.  In total, has made 160 of 475 from three (34%).

Separately, Trilly stating that Ray J Dennis of Toledo was almost ready to commit to Utah but now Illinois is back in the mix as is Baylor.  Should be announcing by the end of the week.

I watched Alabama a lot and Quinerly is a ball dominant guard. At times it seemed like he was trying to pound the air out of the ball.

[Stuhoo]

On 5/16/2023 at 3:53 PM, Demo said:

Linton’s Joey Hart granted his NLI release by UCF. Is Indiana State the move here?

 

[Demo]

3 minutes ago, Stuhoo said:

 

Well now, that’s what happens when you’re gonna have something like 5 open schollys on June 1. 

[Stuhoo]

2 minutes ago, Demo said:

Well now, that’s what happens when you’re gonna have something like 5 open schollys on June 1. 

Current Kentucky full-scrimmage situation:

[Stuhoo]

Lots of draft decisions coming in:

• Sueing goes pro.
• Hoggard returns to MSU.
• Bona returns to UCLA.
• Dingle official to St. Johns.
• Burton to Nova.

The floodgates of info are opening.

[Stuhoo]

 

In other words ... Trilly don't know about them. Props to a guy who doesn't seem to overreach on his knowledge.

 

[RaceToTheTop]

1 hour ago, Stuhoo said:

 

30th rated shooting guard in the class of 2023, 181st overall.  Would be a rare opportunity for someone with that kind of ranking to get a UK offer....but likely just be a guy on the outside of a short rotation and then next year recruited over.

[RaceToTheTop]

UConn's Adama Sonoga staying in the draft.

[str8baller]

52 minutes ago, Stuhoo said:

Hoggard returns to MSU.

Huge for them. If he was playing well they were tough to beat. 13pts and 6 assts for a guy who split ballhandling duties with Walker. 
 

MSU should be tough next year. 

[RaceToTheTop]

Trilly indicating that Demarco Dunn (North Carolina transfer) likely transferring to Georgetown.  90th rated recruit in 2021, never panned out at North Caroilna.

[RaceToTheTop]

Awesome work by Andrew Parrish.......scholarship charts for all division 1 teams.  Would guess he will keep editing as players change teams.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1h6FfM7hlfJJkuNtyqp7JsrlHag6E9RocNE4OhfKE4Mo/edit#gid=1474079437