Bracketology and Team Resumes

[Stuhoo 80,901]

4 minutes ago, Magnanimous said:

Unless we lose both home games and the first of the BTT, I think we’re in at this point. 

 

Yup that worst case scenario would put us at 18-14. Even that might do it! 19-14 = dropping the next, beating Nebraska/NW, and then losing again. I think even that gets us in.

 

[Uspshoosier 45,762]

Bracketology 2020

1 seeds- Kansas, Baylor, Zags, San Diego St

Kansas has by far the most impressive resume so far this year.  They are number 1 in pretty much every metric, sos, and have the most impressive wins.  11 Q1 wins(6 of those Q1a) and all their losses to Q1a teams.   Eye test tells you they are the team to beat going into the tournament and the numbers back that up

2 seeds- Maryland, Seton Hall, Dayton, Kentucky

Many probably have Dayton as the first 2 seed but I just couldn't put them ahead of the other 2 in front of them.  I think Dayton is a legit final 4 contender but their limited Q1 games hold them back a little and I think the committee will hold them back a little as well.  Kentuckys Q4 loss could end of costing them a seed line in the end.   Personally I think Seton Hall has the team to make the Final 4 depending on matchups

3 seed- Creighton, Louisville, Florida St,  Nova

If you haven't gotten a chance to watch Creighton play this year I highly recommend watching them in these next 2 weeks before the tournament starts.  By far  one of the best offensive teams and one of my favorite teams to watch.   Their numbers are really good as well and stack up to anyone on around them.  I would of had them on the 2 line if they would of won at St Johns.

4 seed- Duke, Oregon, Sparty, Auburn

Duke a 4 seed? don't tell espn I have them on the 4 line they might find a way to delete this thread.   While I personally think they are better then a 4 seed this is where they are for now.   They need to face Florida St and Louisville in ACC Tourney and win them to gain a couple more Q1 games.    ACC being down has caused a lack of Q1 opportunities for the upper tier teams.   Oregon has Pritchard so I would not count them out.   They have stumbled a bit from what I thought they would be this year but I think they have a run in them

5 seed-Penn St, Iowa, Ohio St, Wisky

All B1G 5 seeds with the top 6 a B1G team as well.   Put those teams in a hat and draw them out would probably be a better way of looking at them.   Not a lot of separation between  them as of today but luckily the last week and  B1G tournament will give some of these teams a chance to improve their resumes or provide a chance to tumble. 

6 seed-Michigan, BYU, Marquette, Colorado

BYU is my sleeper team to make a run to the final 4.   Most their losses came without their best player Childs.   They have the shooting and they have the big man down low.    Haws isn't afraid of being the go to guy and take the big shot and he has hit a couple of them this year.   Byu/Creighton would be a heck of a matchup in the tourney 

7 seed-West Virginia, Butler, Virginia, Illinois

West Virginia was once in the committee's top 16 reveal but they have fallen quite a lot since then.    Their offense especially their shooting has been abysmal(sound familiar)  Butler has fallen as well.    I might of dropped them too much to be honest but for Hova's dislike for Butler I decided drop them to a 7.  

8 seed- Zona, LSU, USC, St Marys

After the 7 line it really gets hard separating some of these teams.   Actually this year that could probably be said from seeds 5-12.  This tournament is going to be wild and I can not wait for the chaos.   Throw the seeds out the door

9seed-Houston, Oklahoma, IU, Arizona St

IU needs to take care of business on Wednesday and for me with the resume they already have IU will be in this tournament despite the results of the games after Wednesday.     Ive said 19 regular season wins would get them in since January and they have given me no reason to change that line of thinking today

Top 45 SOS( I know ken pom is lower) and 0 losses outside the NET top 50 plus 6Q1wins and at the least 2Q2 wins gives IU some breathing room going into the B1G tournament as long as they get to 19.    Unlike some resumes iu can afford a bad loss and still have a feel confident about their chances.     Even if the worst happens iu would  still be18-13 heading into the B1G tourney and would be at least 4 games over .500 which if you follow me on here is a big deal for teams trying to make the tournament.

10 seed-Texas Tech, Xavier, Florida, Providence

Ed Cooley is one of the most underrated coaches in the game today.   The guy can flat out coach.   a couple years ago he was apart of the first all access games where the mic'd the coaches.  Since that time I have been a big fan of his.    His team was dead in the water after non-conference play and everyone including myself wrote them off.   Big turn around and now they are in a position to get an at-large bid even with 4 Q3-4 losses.

11 seed- Stanford, ETSU, No Iowa, Rutgers

I think ETSU and No Iowa cannot have any slip ups in their conference tournaments.   ETSU can only lose to Furman or maybe Greensburo and still feel safe about an at large bid.   While it might not be fair to mid majors this is the system and since their Q1 and Q2 chances are slim they have less margin of error.    it didn't help that they could of scheduled just a little stronger in the non conference but this is where we are.   Rutgers needs to win some games away from home and that means @Purdue or in the B1G tourney or this feel good story all year might end up a nightmare for them and they go to the NIT

Last 4 In- Wichita St, Utah St, Rhode Island, Cincy

Wichta St dodged a bullet yesterday but it didn't save them from being near the cutline.   

They have 2 Q1 wins(non tourney teams) and 7 Q2 wins(1 against a tourney team) Oklahoma (9 seed)is their only win against the NET top 50.  I know some are worried about iu being on the cutline but these are the types of resumes that will be compared to IU's if  they fall to the bubble.   FWIW iu has 6 top 50 wins

Teams that are close

NC State, Texas, Richmond, UCLA, Miss St, Arkansas, Memphis, Bama, Tenn, Purdue

mid major teams to watch 

ETSU- This team is really good and has a bunch of seniors.  if they make the tournament they will win their 1st game and possibly make the sweet 16

No Iowa- They have a superstar in their pg Green who is a high major player without question.   His dad is the assistant coach at No Iowa

Furman, UNC Greensburo, SF Austin, Yale, Liberty

Conference Tournaments start Tuesday        The tournament you guys need to watch is the SoCon tournament.   This tournament is going to be just as good as any high major tournament.

I will post one more update right before  selection Sunday.    Things will change and the seeds will need scrubbing before then but until then enjoy the madness that is coming.   1 more week of work then this mailman is on vacation for 3 weeks.

as always if you have any bracketology questions just ask them in this thread 

 

 

 

[WayneFleekHoosier 48,390]

I could so see them setting up Indiana vs Arizona if they get the opportunity.

Is LSU, really an 8? I haven’t followed them too closely but they seem much better than an 8.


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[Uspshoosier 45,762]

I could so see them setting up Indiana vs Arizona if they get the opportunity.

Is LSU, really an 8? I haven’t followed them too closely but they seem much better than an 8.


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Home game against Florida is probably their best win. A bunch of Q2 wins against teams on the bubble. Q1 road wins against teams on wrong side of the bubble. Loss at Vandy is holding them back for me.


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[Bobman1 2,909]

I could so see them setting up Indiana vs Arizona if they get the opportunity.

Is LSU, really an 8? I haven’t followed them too closely but they seem much better than an 8.


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Haven’t watched a lot of Arizona this year but absolutely hate when the NCAA sets up the bracket for $ purposes. Yes, that’s what it’s all about but that run in 2015 of Kentucky then UNC was just complete BS.


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[Alford Bailey 12,386]

1 hour ago, Bobman1 said:

Haven’t watched a lot of Arizona this year but absolutely hate when the NCAA sets up the bracket for $ purposes. Yes, that’s what it’s all about but that run in 2015 of Kentucky then UNC was just complete BS.


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Its made for tv

[Loaded Chicken Sandwich 8,674]

Its made for tv

It’s really all they care about. Or else they’d stick to the S-Curve.


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[Uspshoosier 45,762]

It’s really all they care about. Or else they’d stick to the S-Curve.


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Sometimes bracketing rules force them not to use the S-Curve. This year for instance since BYU is going to be in the field they have to fit them in the bracket so that they play in the Thursday, Saturday games since they can’t play on Sunday. Multiple teams are probably going to be effected by this. I always like to see the S-Curve list and see why they moved teams seed lines


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[Loaded Chicken Sandwich 8,674]

Sometimes bracketing rules force them not to use the S-Curve. This year for instance since BYU is going to be in the field they have to fit them in the bracket so that they play in the Thursday, Saturday games since they can’t play on Sunday. Multiple teams are probably going to be effected by this. I always like to see the S-Curve list and see why they moved teams seed lines


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When was it they tried to get schools closer to where they are from?


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[Baltimore Hoosier 986]

 

Has Duke played a game anywhere other than the east coast in the 1st or 2nd round in the last couple decades? Seems like they always have a home-ish game in the 1st/2nd round. I guess it helps when you’re consistently a top 4 seed.

 

 

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[TheWatShot 14,010]

2 hours ago, Bobman1 said:

Haven’t watched a lot of Arizona this year but absolutely hate when the NCAA sets up the bracket for $ purposes. Yes, that’s what it’s all about but that run in 2015 of Kentucky then UNC was just complete BS.


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It was actually 2016, but that draw was criminal. We were outright Big Ten champs that year and had to play the SEC champs in the freaking second round. I'd wager that a second round matchup between Power 5 champs had never occurred that early in the tournament until then. It was total horsesh*t. 

[Uspshoosier 45,762]

When was it they tried to get schools closer to where they are from?


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Can’t remember but they have added a bunch of amended rules over the years.
I know one of the last things they have added is the top overall seed gets to pick which region they want to go to. Virginia ended up picking their region and UMBC was put on their quad for geographic purposes. Technically Virginia as the number 1 overall seed shouldn’t of played the highest rated 16 seed. Kind of funny looking back now. Even though they should of beat them if they would of picked a different region they probably could of avoided a historic loss


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[RaceToTheTop 25,843]

43 minutes ago, TheWatShot said:

It was actually 2016, but that draw was criminal. We were outright Big Ten champs that year and had to play the SEC champs in the freaking second round. I'd wager that a second round matchup between Power 5 champs had never occurred that early in the tournament until then. It was total horsesh*t. 

That is the one that ticked me off.  It's one thing to not use the S curve, but you can't tell me that year that Kentucky and Indiana weren't underseeded so they would meet each other in round two.  IU was 25-7 and 15-3 in the Big Ten and Kentucky was 26-8 in 13-5 and won not only their conference title but the tournament title as well.  Most people thought UK was a 3 seed and IU was going to be a 3 or 4....instead UK was a 4 and IU was a 5.

[Loaded Chicken Sandwich 8,674]

Can’t remember but they have added a bunch of amended rules over the years.
I know one of the last things they have added is the top overall seed gets to pick which region they want to go to. Virginia ended up picking their region and UMBC was put on their quad for geographic purposes. Technically Virginia as the number 1 overall seed shouldn’t of played the highest rated 16 seed. Kind of funny looking back now. Even though they should of beat them if they would of picked a different region they probably could of avoided a historic loss


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I don’t like the geographical thing. Fun thing about the tourney was seeing matchups you wouldn’t normally. They should stick to the S-Curve as much as possible. No one gets a choice.


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[RaceToTheTop 25,843]

Through 4 of the 11 NCAA games on tap today, IU moved up once spot and ahead of 24-5 Auburn on Pom.  Simply means that the ripple effect of the games played changed their ratings ever so slightly to push IU a little ahead of Auburn.  Could switch back again before the end of the night because to the nearest hundredth of a point in AdjEM, Auburn entered the night at +15.55 and IU was at +15.53;  both are now at +15.53 so IU is less than .01 ahead.

[RaceToTheTop 25,843]

IU listed as a 10 seed on the bracketmatrix with 7 at large bids listed below them.  In the tournament on 106 of the 108 brackets.

[RaceToTheTop 25,843]

NC State loses at Duke 88-69.  The Wolfpack were kind of in position in their last two games where not much would change their status.....they played at Duke and end the season hosting Wake Forest.  They are the ultimate bubble team, bracketmatrix has them in the tournament in the field in 43% of the brackets, out in 57%.

The Duke loss likely doesn't change anything, but a win at home against Wake Forest won't do anything for their resume either.  Basically the only movement they would have had was with a win at Duke (putting them into the field in most brackets) or a loss at home to Wake Forest (which would have pretty moved them out of almost everyone's bracket).

If they win at home against Wake Forest they will be in the precarious position of being just out or being one of the last few in.....and the last couple in usually get pushed out due to conference tourney results.  They'll be anywhere from a 5 to 9 seed in the ACC tourney, so the first game does little good in terms of upping resume as it will be against an ACC team that isn't going to make the NCAA tournament.  To get to a game that could potentially help, they'll have to beat a mid to lower tier ACC team so they can face one of the top four (Louisville, Duke, Florida State, Virginia).

[southsidehoosier 5,027]

http:// https://www.insidethehall.com/2020/03/03/bracketology-ncaa-tournament-projection-as-of-march-3-2020/


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[Whoozhers 3,690]

Espn has us as a #10 playing Kelvin Sampson’s #7 Houston

 

 

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[Loaded Chicken Sandwich 8,674]

Hypothetically, if the NCAA set a standard to get in the tourney and set it at 19 wins AND at least 1 game under .500 in conference or better, there are currently 103 teams who qualify.

Now comparing that to the Bracket Matrix bracket, the teams left out because of those qualifiers are Michigan(6 seed), Marquette(7), Florida(9), Texas Tech(9), Oklahoma(9), Indiana(10), Providence(10), Montana(16). Montana’s is different though as many bracketologist will use a team at the top of their standings. Montana and Eastern Washington are both 14-4 in the Big Sky and Montana is 18-11, so one game from “qualifying.”

As for the others... Michigan, Marquette, Florida, Texas Tech, Oklahoma and Indiana need to win 1 more game before the end of the regular season. Providence would need to win two more games before the end of the season. I’ll revisit this next Monday to see if standards like this would actually change anything or cause more excitement in the last couple weeks.


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