Bracketology and Team Resumes

[Loaded Chicken Sandwich 8,660]

Just now, Uspshoosier said:

0 chance. 2 Q4 losses and SOS in the 200s and the American doesn’t have many opportunities for big wins.   As you said Memphis is fading.   American could be 1 bid league if Memphis keeps falling and fAU wins the conference tourney 

As I said, not great. But neat to see they've won 14 of 15.

[Uspshoosier 45,494]

17 minutes ago, IndyResident16 said:

I think we're about two weeks from mathematically eliminating Indiana's chances of an at-large bid. Assuming IU loses to Purdue Saturday, I don't see any way IU is even on the bubble heading into championship weekend unless they go 7-1 down the stretch. 6-2 down the stretch and a run to the finals, maybe, but we'd need some help. Really going to regret not closing out Kansas at home. 

That would depend on the wins in the 6-2 record.   Every game from here on out is Q1 and Q2.   IUs SOS will help them out big time if they ever make it to the bottom of the bubble.    Q3 loss stinks but as of now it’s their only “bad” loss.  Plenty of bubble teams will have more.   Probably have to beat Wisky and Sparty.  Winning Saturday would be double points and would be the best win in all of college basketball but I wouldn’t bank your tourney hopes on it.    A lot needs to be played out before IU is mathematically eliminated 

[HoosierHoopster 6,873]

2 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

That would depend on the wins in the 6-2 record.   Every game from here on out is Q1 and Q2.   IUs SOS will help them out big time if they ever make it to the bottom of the bubble.    Q3 loss stinks but as of now it’s their only “bad” loss.  Plenty of bubble teams will have more.   Probably have to beat Wisky and Sparty.  Winning Saturday would be double points and would be the best win in all of college basketball but I wouldn’t bank your tourney hopes on it.    A lot needs to be played out before IU is mathematically eliminated 

[IndyResident16 567]

14 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

That would depend on the wins in the 6-2 record.   Every game from here on out is Q1 and Q2.   IUs SOS will help them out big time if they ever make it to the bottom of the bubble.    Q3 loss stinks but as of now it’s their only “bad” loss.  Plenty of bubble teams will have more.   Probably have to beat Wisky and Sparty.  Winning Saturday would be double points and would be the best win in all of college basketball but I wouldn’t bank your tourney hopes on it.    A lot needs to be played out before IU is mathematically eliminated 

IU (at least in my opinion) essentially has to hold serve at home and win 1/3 on the road between Penn St/Minnesota/Maryland to even be considered a bubble team heading into the BTT. Obviously beating Purdue Saturday gives you a little more leeway but odds are still stacked heavily against us. 

[Uspshoosier 45,494]

39 minutes ago, IndyResident16 said:

IU (at least in my opinion) essentially has to hold serve at home and win 1/3 on the road between Penn St/Minnesota/Maryland to even be considered a bubble team heading into the BTT. Obviously beating Purdue Saturday gives you a little more leeway but odds are still stacked heavily against us. 

They are not competing with the Dukes, UConns, Marquette’s or even Illinois when it comes to the bottom of the bubble.  In your hypothetical if IU held serve at home that would mean they would have wins against Northwestern, Sparty, Nebraska and a massive Q1a win against Wisky.  That right there would be 4 wins against the projected field with one of those being against a top 3 seed.   Throw in 2 more road wins  which would be 2 more Q2 wins and IUs resume will look good when compared to the rest of the bottom of the bubble.   Then it comes down to what the committee feels is important this year.  We won’t know that until their top 16 reveal which will gives us small clues.    
In your case of finishing 6-2 

IU would have be 3-8 in Q1, 7-2 in Q2 with a SOS in the 20s

Not sure I personally see a path to finishing 6-2 but it’s there and if they do they will have a better resume then some think they would have.    Just remember they are competing with other teams that have flaws.   

[IndyResident16 567]

Just now, Uspshoosier said:

They are not competing with the Dukes, UConns, Marquette’s or even Illinois when it comes to the bottom of the bubble.  In your hypothetical if IU held serve at home that would mean they would have wins against Northwestern, Sparty, Nebraska and a massive Q1a win against Wisky.  That right there would be 4 wins against the projected field with one of those being against a top 3 seed.   Throw in 2 more road wins  which would be 2 more Q2 wins and IUs resume will look good when compared to the rest of the bottom of the bubble.   Then it comes down to what the committee feels is important this year.  We won’t know that until their top 16 reveal which will gives us small clues.    
In your case of finishing 6-2 

IU would have be 3-8 in Q1, 7-2 in Q2 with a SOS in the 20s

Not sure I personally see a path to finishing 6-2 but it’s there and if they do they will have a better resume then some think they would have.    Just remember they are competing with other teams that have flaws.   

Just tough seeing IU's metrics jump high enough to be considered without going 7-1 down the stretch and likely needing to win a game in the BTT to get in. They're upper 90's in both NET and KenPom right now. I think they need to be on the right side of 60 to even have a chance.

[Uspshoosier 45,494]

6 minutes ago, IndyResident16 said:

Just tough seeing IU's metrics jump high enough to be considered without going 7-1 down the stretch and likely needing to win a game in the BTT to get in. They're upper 90's in both NET and KenPom right now. I think they need to be on the right side of 60 to even have a chance.

Need to get to NET in the 70s and a SOR below 52 preferably they are at 62.   The math will work itself out if they go 6-2 to get down to the 70s because the metrics will have them underdogs in almost all of them.     Out preform your predictive metrics and the math will follow.  

[LamarCheeks 18,462]

4 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

Need to get to NET in the 70s and a SOR below 52 preferably they are at 62.   The math will work itself out if they go 6-2 to get down to the 70s because the metrics will have them underdogs in almost all of them.     Out preform your predictive metrics and the math will follow.  

 

 

[IUHoosierJoe 1,120]

7 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

Need to get to NET in the 70s and a SOR below 52 preferably they are at 62.   The math will work itself out if they go 6-2 to get down to the 70s because the metrics will have them underdogs in almost all of them.     Out preform your predictive metrics and the math will follow.  

True, but this far into the season, I think they will also need to blow a couple teams out to improve it that much.

[Uspshoosier 45,494]

5 minutes ago, IUHoosierJoe said:

True, but this far into the season, I think they will also need to blow a couple teams out to improve it that much.

worse NET an at-large team im remembering had a net 80 and their Ken Pom was 77.  They put them in the first 4.   That was Rutgers a couple years ago.  Difference was they had some massive Q1 wins but also had some terrible Q3 and 1 atrocious Q4 home loss.    Who knows what the committee will do but I do know if IU! somehow found a way to finish 6-2 and one of those wins was Wisky their resume will look better then most think when compared to others around the bottom 

[Five Prime 1,085]

In which multiverse reality is there a chance of this IU team going 6-2 down the stretch?  

[HoosierHoopster 6,873]

17 minutes ago, Five Prime said:

In which multiverse reality is there a chance of this IU team going 6-2 down the stretch?  

[RaceToTheTop 25,274]

Long post, ignore if you like. :)

My WAR system calculates team value by comparing how likely it is for a team that would be 'the final at large team' to beat a team on their schedule based on venue (road, home, away).  The 50% mark is equivalent to playing the 33rd best team at home, the 58th best team on a neutral court, or the 83rd best team on the road.  Once the percentage chance of winning is figured for each game, the expected number of wins is subtracted from a team's actual number of wins to get a team's WAR.  In essence, it does not take into account a team's efficiency -- it doesn't care about margin of victory, only whether a team won or lost -- but does use Pom's efficiency to calculate how difficult it was to beat an opponents.  Home games above teams ranked higher than 265, neutral games against teams higher than 290, and road games above teams ranked 315 are all placed at a 97% win rate as I did find if it were set any higher that some teams that were mid majors that actually were in consideration for an a tournament bid were not accumulating enough WAR value to reflect that.

Last night IU's game at Ohio State had a win expectation of 45% for a team that I would value as the last team to make the NCAA tournament.....so beating Ohio State earns a WAR of +0.55 while losing earns a -0.45.   

I have IU's wins valued at: (best to worst)

• at Ohio St +0.55
• at Michigan +0.45
• Iowa +0.45
• Maryland +0.43
• Ohio State +0.41
• Minnesota +0.39
• Morehead St +0.31
• Wright St. +0.22
• Louisville (N) +0.22
• Harvard +0.11
• N. Alabama +0.07
• Kennesaw St +0.06
• Florida Gulf-Coast +0.05
• Army +0.03

IU's losses valued at (worst to best):

• Penn State  -0.65
• at Rutgers -0.53
• Kansas -0.44
• Purdue -0.39
• at Nebraska -0.37
• Auburn (N) -0.30
• U Conn (N) -0.29
• at Wisconsin -0.20
• at Illinois -0.16

That's really a resume of not much on the high value winning end but not really too bad of value losses on the losing end.  Overall I have IU at +0.41 for the year.  Right now, I have the first team out of the tournament at +0.95.  In the past, +1 in my system usually got you in but I did make some tweaks this season and I am anticipating it being more like a +2.  If IU were to go 6-2, based on current numbers, they would end the regular season at +2.94.  But what I value -- wins v schedule played -- isn't necessarily all that the committee looks at.  IU's efficiency isn't good and the committee values that;  IU lacks quad one wins and the committee values that as well.  It could very well be that the committee would value IU going 5-3 with 2 quad one wins over 6-2 and only one quad one win.

[Rico 2,995]

4 minutes ago, RaceToTheTop said:

Long post, ignore if you like. :)

My WAR system calculates team value by comparing how likely it is for a team that would be 'the final at large team' to beat a team on their schedule based on venue (road, home, away).  The 50% mark is equivalent to playing the 33rd best team at home, the 58th best team on a neutral court, or the 83rd best team on the road.  Once the percentage chance of winning is figured for each game, the expected number of wins is subtracted from a team's actual number of wins to get a team's WAR.  In essence, it does not take into account a team's efficiency -- it doesn't care about margin of victory, only whether a team won or lost -- but does use Pom's efficiency to calculate how difficult it was to beat an opponents.  Home games above teams ranked higher than 265, neutral games against teams higher than 290, and road games above teams ranked 315 are all placed at a 97% win rate as I did find if it were set any higher that some teams that were mid majors that actually were in consideration for an a tournament bid were not accumulating enough WAR value to reflect that.

Last night IU's game at Ohio State had a win expectation of 45% for a team that I would value as the last team to make the NCAA tournament.....so beating Ohio State earns a WAR of +0.55 while losing earns a -0.45.  Really dood wins for a team hoping for an at large will net them +0.50 and above while bad losses net them a -0.50 or below.  

[Hornsby 1,694]

I think we're about two weeks from mathematically eliminating Indiana's odds of an at-large bid, not that they were any good to begin with. Assuming IU loses to Purdue Saturday, I don't see any way IU is even on the bubble heading into championship weekend unless they go 7-1 down the stretch. 6-2 down the stretch and a run to the finals, maybe, but we'd need some help. Really going to regret not closing out Kansas at home. 

That would probably have to include beating purdue and wisconsin.

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[Class of '66 Old Fart 84,280]

1 hour ago, Five Prime said:

In which multiverse reality is there a chance of this IU team going 6-2 down the stretch?  

[RaceToTheTop 25,274]

Team A, B, C

Team A  

NET 42   16-6 record Q1:  4-3,  Q2:  3-2,  Q3:  2-1, Q4:  7-0   SOS 83  Non-conference SOS 198

Team B

NET 52 16-7 record Q1:  3-4, Q2:  3-3, Q3: 3-0, Q4: 7-0, SOS 44 Non-conference SOS 246

Team C

NET 60  15-7 record  Q1:  4-4, Q2:  2-1, Q3:  3-0, Q4 6-1, SOS 49, Non-conference SOS 307

[Uspshoosier 45,494]

55 minutes ago, Hornsby said:

That would probably have to include beating purdue and wisconsin.

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Not necessarily Purdue.   If they won at Purdue that would be worth 2 wins basically.   It would be the best win in all of college basketball this year.     A win at the projected top overall seed would be massive but losing won’t do much of anything in terms of IUs tourney chances.   It’s a free space game 

[Uspshoosier 45,494]

Yearly reminder 

https://x.com/t3bracketology/status/1755251655598022679?s=46

[RaceToTheTop 25,274]

My Big Ten WAR values:

1. Purdue 21-2 WAR +9
2. Illinois 17-5 WAR +3.74
3. Wisky 16-7 WAR +3.49
4. Northwestern 16-7 WAR +2.13
5. Nebraska 16-8 WAR +1.37
6. Michigan St 14-9 WAR+1.14
7. Indiana 14-9 WAR +0.41
8. Iowa 13-9 WAR -0.09
9. Minnesota 15-7  WAR -0.21
10. Rutgers 12-10 WAR -1.01
11. Maryland 13-10 WAR -1.41
12. Ohio State  13-10 WAR -1.43
13. Penn State 11-11 WAR -2.75
14. Michigan 8-15 WAR -4.18