Bracketology and Team Resumes

[RaceToTheTop 24,306]

Current WAR multiple bid leagues:

• Big 12:  9 bids:  Houston, Kansas, Baylor, Iowa State, Oklahoma, Texas Tech, BYU, TCU, Texas
• SEC:  9 bids:  South Carolina, Tennessee, Alabama, Auburn, Mississippi, Florida, Texas A&M, Mississippi State, Kentucky
• Big Ten:  6 bids:  Purdue, Illinois, Wisconsin, Northwestern, Michigan State, Nebraska
• Mountain West: 6 bids:  San Diego State, Colorado State, Utah State, Nevada, New Mexico, Boise State
• Big East:  4 bids.  U Conn, Marquette, Creighton, Butler
• Pac 12:  4 bids:  Arizona, Washington State, Oregon, Utah
• ACC:  4 bids:  North Carolina, Virginia, Duke, Clemson
• Missouri Valley:  2 bids.  Indiana State, Drake.

Last four byes:  Nebraska, Kentucky, TCU, Boise State

Last four in:  Drake, Texas, Oregon, Utah

First four out:  Memphis, Wake Forest, Colorado, Gonzaga

Next four out:  Kansas State, Syracuse, Cincinnati, St. John's

NOTE:  If James Madison were to not win their conference tournament, I actually currently have them above Boise State as the last team worthy of a bye which would bump Boise State to the last four in line and Utah to the first four out line.

SECOND NOTE:  Seton Hall would have been ahead of St.John's on the next four out line entering Sunday but will drop below them after their loss to Villanova today.

[RaceToTheTop 24,306]

Top 25 WAR through Sunday's games:

1. Purdue 22-2, WAR +9.32
2. U Conn 22-2, WAR +7.54
3. Houston 21-3, WAR +6.83
4. Arizona 19-5, WAR +6.08
5. UNC 19-5, WAR +5.07
6. South Carolina 21-3, WAR +4.95
7. Marquette 18-5,WAR+4.88
8. Kansas 18-5, WAR +4.76
9. Tennessee 17-5, WAR+4.38
10. Alabama 17-7, WAR +4.28
11. Dayton 19-4, WAR+4.20
12. Indiana State 21-3, WAR+4.16
13. Auburn 19-5, WAR +4.13
14. San Diego State 16-6, WAR +3.82
15. Baylor 16-6, WAR +3.71
16. Mississippi 18-5, WAR +3.64
17. Iowa State 18-5, WAR +3.59
18. Illinois 17-6, WAR +3.57
19. Virginia 19-5, WAR +3.38
20. Colorado State 17-5, +3.38
21. Grand Canyon 21-2, WAR +3.28
22. Duke 18-5, WAR +3.13
23. Clemson 16-7, WAR +3.11
24. Oklahoma 18-6, WAR +3.09
25. Wisconsin, 16-8, +3.06

Close:  Texas Tech 17-6, WAR +3.01, Florida Atlantic 19-5, WAR +2.92, Creighton 17-7, WAR +2.81, Utah State 19-4, WAR +2.73, Nevada 18-5, WAR +2.70

[AZ Hoosier 6,180]

3 minutes ago, RaceToTheTop said:

Top 25 WAR through Sunday's games:

1. Purdue 22-2, WAR +9.32
2. U Conn 22-2, WAR +7.54
3. Houston 21-3, WAR +6.83
4. Arizona 19-5, WAR +6.08
5. UNC 19-5, WAR +5.07
6. South Carolina 21-3, WAR +4.95
7. Marquette 18-5,WAR+4.88
8. Kansas 18-5, WAR +4.76
9. Tennessee 17-5, WAR+4.38
10. Alabama 17-7, WAR +4.28
11. Dayton 19-4, WAR+4.20
12. Indiana State 21-3, WAR+4.16
13. Auburn 19-5, WAR +4.13
14. San Diego State 16-6, WAR +3.82
15. Baylor 16-6, WAR +3.71
16. Mississippi 18-5, WAR +3.64
17. Iowa State 18-5, WAR +3.59
18. Illinois 17-6, WAR +3.57
19. Virginia 19-5, WAR +3.38
20. Colorado State 17-5, +3.38
21. Grand Canyon 21-2, WAR +3.28
22. Duke 18-5, WAR +3.13
23. Clemson 16-7, WAR +3.11
24. Oklahoma 18-6, WAR +3.09
25. Wisconsin, 16-8, +3.06

Close:  Texas Tech 17-6, WAR +3.01, Florida Atlantic 19-5, WAR +2.92, Creighton 17-7, WAR +2.81, Utah State 19-4, WAR +2.73, Nevada 18-5, WAR +2.70

21. Grand Canyon won last night... they are 22-2.

[IUHoosierJoe 970]

My computer ratings through 2/11/24 games:

1	Purdue		22	-	2		(	1	)
2	Houston		21	-	3		(	2	)
3	Arizona		19	-	5		(	3	)
4	Connecticut		22	-	2		(	4	)
5	Alabama		17	-	7		(	5	)
6	Auburn		19	-	5		(	9	)
7	Iowa St		18	-	5		(	10	)
8	Tennessee		17	-	6		(	6	)
9	North Carolina		19	-	5		(	7	)
10	BYU		17	-	6		(	8	)
11	Marquette		18	-	5		(	16	)
12	Kansas		18	-	5		(	14	)
13	Illinois		17	-	6		(	11	)
14	Baylor		16	-	6		(	13	)
15	New Mexico		18	-	5		(	12	)
16	Indiana St		21	-	3		(	22	)
17	San Diego St		16	-	6		(	17	)
18	Creighton		17	-	7		(	19	)
19	Duke		18	-	5		(	21	)
20	Utah St		18	-	4		(	15	)
21	Dayton		19	-	4		(	20	)
22	Colorado St		17	-	5		(	23	)
23	FL Atlantic		19	-	5		(	25	)
24	Clemson		16	-	7		(	34	)
25	Michigan St		15	-	9		(	24	)

[RaceToTheTop 24,306]

5 hours ago, AZ Hoosier said:

21. Grand Canyon won last night... they are 22-2.

I only include games against division 1 teams (this is what the NCAA committee will put on their sheets).  Grand Canyon beat a D2 team earlier in the year.

[Uspshoosier 44,555]

Isu dropped 8 spots to 28 in the NET.   If they have any chance at an at-large they have to win Saturday.   Q2 road win is a must for them and then they need to win out the regular season and make it to the championship game.   That would be the path but I would still be sweating if I was them.  

[Uspshoosier 44,555]

Committees top 16 will be revealed this Saturday.   

[Uspshoosier 44,555]

@Hovadipoi done some digging to compare ISUs resume to  at large teams over the last couple years.    Closest one that ended up in the first 4 was Belmont in 2019

Bemont                  ISU

NET-47                     28

Q1-(2-2)                   (1-3)

Q2-(3-1)                  (3-0)

Q3-(3-2)                   (8-0)

Q4-(17-0)                (9-1)

SOS-154                   132

non con sos-43.        167

I still think isu has a path to an at-large depending on what the committee is going to value.    I’m pretty sure Belmont was the team I left out that year.      They have to win on Saturday to get another Q2.   If they win out regular season and make the final of the MVC tourney I still think they got a shot 

[RaceToTheTop 24,306]

5 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

@Hovadipoi done some digging to compare ISUs resume to  at large teams over the last couple years.    Closest one that ended up in the first 4 was Belmont in 2019

Bemont                  ISU

NET-47                     28

Q1-(2-2)                   (1-3)

Q2-(3-1)                  (3-0)

Q3-(3-2)                   (8-0)

Q4-(17-0)                (9-1)

SOS-154                   132

non con sos-43.        167

I still think isu has a path to an at-large depending on what the committee is going to value.    I’m pretty sure Belmont was the team I left out that year.      They have to win on Saturday to get another Q2.   If they win out regular season and make the final of the MVC tourney I still think they got a shot 

If they win out in the regular season, then almost assuredly Drake and Bradley as the 2 and 3 seeds, so in terms of getting wins in their conference tournament they likely are playing either a 4 or 5 seed...I think the only team that could possibly get into the top 100 net by then is Southern Illinois, but they are currently at 109 and their best chance at a big jump would be to beat Indiana State in the regular season, which ISU can't have happen if they want an at large bid.  So it's not likely that any conference tournament games they'll have other than the final would even be a quad 2.  With the MVC tournament happening a week before selection Sunday, those games are sure to be looked at.

I 100% agree with your assessment -- they could get an at large if they win out in the regular season and make the conference tournament finals.  The committee surely won't like their lack of Q1/Q2 games plus the single Q1 win.

[Uspshoosier 44,555]

11 minutes ago, RaceToTheTop said:

100% agree with your @$$essment -- they could get an at large if they win out in the regular season and make the conference tournament finals.  The committee surely won't like their lack of Q1/Q2 games plus the single Q1 win.

The ones to watch are Missouri St and Murray St. isu won at both and they are both at 137 and 140   If either make it down to 136 then that would add another Q2.   Going to be close.  They just need to win Arch Madness 

[RaceToTheTop 24,306]

1 hour ago, Uspshoosier said:

The ones to watch are Missouri St and Murray St. isu won at both and they are both at 137 and 140   If either make it down to 136 then that would add another Q2.   Going to be close.  They just need to win Arch Madness 

Murray State could go to 135 by beating Indiana Statein the last game…not sure that is a good scenario though

[RaceToTheTop 24,306]

Question for @Uspshoosier

Indiana State is currently ranked — won’t be next Monday.  Let’s say they win out but lose the tournament title to Drake — they may be ranked after the tournament final.  Has any ranked team ever not made the tourney since the field was expanded?

[Uspshoosier 44,555]

46 minutes ago, RaceToTheTop said:

Question for @Uspshoosier

Indiana State is currently ranked — won’t be next Monday.  Let’s say they win out but lose the tournament title to Drake — they may be ranked after the tournament final.  Has any ranked team ever not made the tourney since the field was expanded?

Yeah.   St Mary’s and Utah st and SMU 

[Uspshoosier 44,555]

Just now, Uspshoosier said:

Yeah.   St Mary’s and Utah st and SMU 

St Mary’s (2015-16)

Utah St(2003-04)

SMU(2013-14)

a couple others were ranked but they were banned so I wouldn’t count them because they would of been selected 

Louisville (2015-16) self imposed banned 

UNLV(91-92) NCAA ban for recruiting violations 

[Uspshoosier 44,555]

Top 16 resumes for me 

1.  Purdue 

2. uconn

3. Houston 

4.  Zona 

5.  Marquette 

6.  Tennessee 

7.  Kansas 

8.   North Carolina 

9.   Iowa St 

10.  Baylor 

11.   Bama 

12.  Auburn 

13.   Duke 

14.  Wisky 

15.  Illinois 

16.   Clemson 

[Uspshoosier 44,555]

2 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

Top 16 resumes for me 

1.  Purdue 

2. uconn

3. Houston 

4.  Zona 

5.  Marquette 

6.  Tennessee 

7.  Kansas 

8.   North Carolina 

9.   Iowa St 

10.  Baylor 

11.   Bama 

12.  Auburn 

13.   Duke 

14.  Wisky 

15.  Illinois 

16.   Clemson 

San Diego St, Creighton, Dayton considered for the 16th spot 

[RaceToTheTop 24,306]

1 hour ago, Uspshoosier said:

Top 16 resumes for me 

1.  Purdue 

2. uconn

3. Houston 

4.  Zona 

5.  Marquette 

6.  Tennessee 

7.  Kansas 

8.   North Carolina 

9.   Iowa St 

10.  Baylor 

11.   Bama 

12.  Auburn 

13.   Duke 

14.  Wisky 

15.  Illinois 

16.   Clemson 

Clemson seems to be the most polarizing team.

[Uspshoosier 44,555]

6 hours ago, RaceToTheTop said:

Clemson seems to be the most polarizing team.

Roads wins at North Carolina and Alabama and top 22 SOS.  I’m trying to guess the committee valuing those 2 top end road wins.    I would have no problem if they were left out but they would definitely be on the 5 seed line 

[RaceToTheTop 24,306]

1 hour ago, Uspshoosier said:

Roads wins at North Carolina and Alabama and top 22 SOS.  I’m trying to guess the committee valuing those 2 top end road wins.    I would have no problem if they were left out but they would definitely be on the 5 seed line 

I am in the like Clemson’s resume corner.  Probably not in my top 16 seeded teams but don’t have an issue with them being there — although to be fair I haven’t seen any metric that has them as a top 16 team.  

[Uspshoosier 44,555]

14 hours ago, Uspshoosier said:

Top 16 resumes for me 

1.  Purdue 

2. uconn

3. Houston 

4.  Zona 

5.  Marquette 

6.  Tennessee 

7.  Kansas 

8.   North Carolina 

9.   Iowa St 

10.  Baylor 

11.   Bama 

12.  Auburn 

13.   Duke 

14.  Wisky 

15.  Illinois 

16.   Clemson 

San diego St was a 4 seed.   Clemson along with Dayton and Creighton were mentioned.   No problem with San Diego St over Clemson.   Glad they give MWC some respect