Bracketology and Team Resumes

[Uspshoosier]

29 minutes ago, Rico said:

Palm has UK playing Arkansas in the First Four?

First 4 doesn’t have to follow the guidelines when it comes to conference teams playing early.   You would hope committee would flip flop one of the other teams just so they don’t match up conference teams but technically they could match conference teams up in the first 4 

[Uspshoosier]

45 minutes ago, RaceToTheTop said:

Jerry Palm bracketology, Monday, Jan 30th:

Big Ten team seeds and opening opponent:

• Purdue, 1 seed.   Open against winner of SE Missouri St/Farleigh Dickinson, then play winner of USC/Clemson
• Illinois, 5 seed:  Open against Oral Roberts;  win and play winner of Northwestern/Boise State
• Indiana, 5 seed:  play Charleston, win and play winner of Xavier/Liberty
• Rutgers 7 seed:  play Nevada, win and play winner of Houston/Siena
• Michigan St 7 seed:  play Creighton, win and play winner of Kansas/Colgate.
• Northwestern:  8 seed, play Boise State, win and play winner of Illinois/Oral Roberts
• Maryland, 10 seed, play Duke, win and play winner of Tennessee/UNC Asheville
• Iowa, 10 seed, play San Diego State, win and play winner of Texas/Youngstown St.

Wisconsin and Penn State in the first four out of the tournament.

Northwestern would be playing a 1 seed if they won against Boise st whoever that would be.   Illinois would play the 4/13 seed winner whoever that would be 

[Rico]

3 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

First 4 doesn’t have to follow the guidelines when it comes to conference teams playing early.   You would hope committee would flip flop one of the other teams just so they don’t match up conference teams but technically they could match conference teams up in the first 4 

I guess it is true.  You learn something new everyday.

[Loaded Chicken Sandwich]

Finally here with the very anticipated Topic Talk Top 25... Lol

 

[Stuhoo]

AP poll this week --  IU at #21.

We are the highest ranked 6 loss team.

That's pretty strrrong.

[monskisprodigy]

I would be okay with us being left out of the top 25 this week...keep them hungry and with a chip on their shoulder. 

Honestly could care less about the top 25, if we get a decent seed and make a run in the tourney. 

 

Edit: Just saw we came in at 21. Regardless, just win baby!

[Stuhoo]

17 minutes ago, monskisprodigy said:

I would be okay with us being left out of the top 25 this week...keep them hungry and with a chip on their shoulder. 

Honestly could care less about the top 25, if we get a decent seed and make a run in the tourney. 

 

Edit: Just saw we came in at 21. Regardless, just win baby!

"I could care less about ranki...what's that?

Number 21?

Really!!?? 

YAHOOOO eat our dust baybeeeee!!!"

 

;)

[monskisprodigy]

5 minutes ago, Stuhoo said:

"I could care less about ranki...what's that?

Number 21?

Really!!?? 

YAHOOOO eat our dust baybeeeee!!!"

 

;)

Equivalent to the, "Horrible shot, NOOO, NOOO, NOOOOO! YESSSS, GREAT SHOT,  KEEP SHOOTING!!!"

[WayneFleekHoosier]

Huge opportunity this week.  If somehow we grab 2 wins we put ourselves right back where we started at the beginning of the season.  17-6 and probably a top 15 team.  Go 1-1, we probably hold or slight drop.  Lose them both?  Wouldn’t be completely catastrophic as far as tournament hopes go, but it would be a tough pill to swallow. 

Edited January 30, 2023 by WayneFleekHoosier

[HoosierHoopster]

1 hour ago, monskisprodigy said:

Equivalent to the, "Horrible shot, NOOO, NOOO, NOOOOO! YESSSS, GREAT SHOT,  KEEP SHOOTING!!!"

Wait, do you have a camera in my house?

[southsidehoosier]

http://www.bracketmatrix.com/

Updated as of yesterday.

IU the last #5 seed

[RaceToTheTop]

After tonight's games, my WAR calculations have a ton of Big Ten teams on the boundary (a couple of these are not going to be popular)

last four byes:

Northwestern, Clemson, Creighton, Arkansas

last four in:

Rutgers, Iowa, Wisconsin, Penn State

first four out:

Arizona State, North Texas, Oklahoma, West Virginia

next four out:

Seton Hall, Mississippi St, Pittsburgh, Oklahoma St

[IUHoosierJoe]

8 hours ago, RaceToTheTop said:

After tonight's games, my WAR calculations have a ton of Big Ten teams on the boundary (a couple of these are not going to be popular)

last four byes:

Northwestern, Clemson, Creighton, Arkansas

last four in:

Rutgers, Iowa, Wisconsin, Penn State

first four out:

Arizona State, North Texas, Oklahoma, West Virginia

next four out:

Seton Hall, Mississippi St, Pittsburgh, Oklahoma St

I’m with you.  The play in games could be a second Big 10 tournament, lol.

[Uspshoosier]

9 hours ago, RaceToTheTop said:

After tonight's games, my WAR calculations have a ton of Big Ten teams on the boundary (a couple of these are not going to be popular)

last four byes:

Northwestern, Clemson, Creighton, Arkansas

last four in:

Rutgers, Iowa, Wisconsin, Penn State

first four out:

Arizona State, North Texas, Oklahoma, West Virginia

next four out:

Seton Hall, Mississippi St, Pittsburgh, Oklahoma St

Rutgers is probably around the 5-6 seed range 

[Uspshoosier]

IU has played 9 Q1 games so far 

6 on the road against top 32 NET teams 

1 neutral against 10 NET 

1 road 53 NET 

1 home game 29 NET 

 

[Hoosierfan1901]

That time of month again as I enter this thread:

https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/team/indiana-hoosiers/bracketology

TeamRankings, even after yesterday’s loss to Maryland, still projects us at 97% chance on making the tournament 

Likely seed is 7 (12.8%), but it is pretty close to around 5-8 seed range

Currently, they project that 19 or 20 wins will get us in and after that is just bonus

[Stuhoo]

7 minutes ago, Hoosierfan1901 said:

That time of month again as I enter this thread:

https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/team/indiana-hoosiers/bracketology

TeamRankings, even after yesterday’s loss to Maryland, still projects us at 97% chance on making the tournament 

Likely seed is 7 (12.8%), but it is pretty close to around 5-8 seed range

Currently, they project that 19 or 20 wins will get us in and after that is just bonus

So five wins out of nine remaining B1G regular season games plus at least one B1G tournament game.

That’s eminently achievable.

[WayneFleekHoosier]

11 minutes ago, Stuhoo said:

So five wins out of nine remaining B1G regular season games plus at least one B1G tournament game.

That’s eminently achievable.

sure is, but it's also the minimum bar for this group.  They really need to find a way to close out better than minimum.  And all that talk leads me into what can we realistically expect next year if this team is minimum bar.  Anyway, here's to hoping we close strong and I can worry about that another day.

Edited February 1, 2023 by WayneFleekHoosier

[Uspshoosier]

https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/team-net-sheet?team=Indiana
 

Couple things that stick out.  Top 20 SOS

only 1 of the 9 Q1 games so far was at home.   You want as many Q1 games at home as possible.   Maybe North Carolina makes it back there.  For me they are still a 5 seed for now with 9 regular season games left.    
If you look back at road records from last year just to give some of you a reference Bama finished 9-9 in conference and 3-7 on the road overall and got a 6 seed.  LSU finished 9-9 in conference and 2-8 on the road and got a 6 seed.  

9 games left so from a bracketology point of view I will rank them from most important to least important

Rutgers 

Michigan 
Illinois 

Iowa

@Michigan 

@Northwestern 

@Sparty 

Since Purdue is so far ahead of every other B1G team these games are like bonus games for the other teams.  A loss isn’t going to hurt you but a win will skyrocket you resume.  Low risk, risk high reward games so for me they become the least important compared to the other games against teams that will be around the same seed line as IU 

Purdue 

@Purdue 

 

 

[RaceToTheTop]

7 hours ago, Uspshoosier said:

Rutgers is probably around the 5-6 seed range 

I know that is where people have them seeded and know my ranking isn't where they would be seeded right now.

My system isn't really reflective of where teams will be seeded but rather where I calculate they should be seeded.  I don't know what NET says their non-conference SOS is, but Pom has it as one of the worst in D1 -- 345th.  Five wins against Pom teams above 300, only two games played against top 25 Pom teams.