Bracketology and Team Resumes

[RaceToTheTop 26,444]

3 hours ago, Uspshoosier said:

Can’t speak on your ratings I just know by what the committee values if they went .500 the rest of the way they are easily in the tournament.  Road wins are still road wins doesn’t matter what KenPom rates them.    They are 4-2 in Q1 with 3 road wins and 4-4 in Q2 with another road win.    Swept North Carolina and has 6 wins against the projected field.   That Georgia tech road win is a Q3 win for them.   I can’t speak for what other formulas have them but in the ones that matter Pittsburgh is a solid ncaa tournament team and they actually have some wiggle room to lose some games they shouldn’t 

My calculations love Pittsburgh's true road resume -- have them as a +1.80 WAR on the road.  Not found of their home resume, but it's still on the positive side at +0.05.  Two neutral court losses to Michigan and VCU -- teams right now on the wrong side of the bubble in terms of at large bids -- hurt and yield a -1.07 WAR.  Total puts them at +0.78 for me.  I will say it's all about how much you like their resume at this point because their aren't many big opportunities to increase it at this point because there are really just two opportunities to enhance it in the regular season (at Va Tech and at Miami) while there are opportunities that could hurt their resume (home against Louisville, home against Georgia Tech, at Florida State, at Notre Dame, home against Syracuse).  But they have the opportunity to run up both their total wins and conference record in with that group.  If they even go 4-4 with the group, they would be 13-7 in the ACC and I can't recall any team with a 13-7 in the ACC not making it (although Clemson this year might not if they go go 13-7).

FWIW, Pittsburgh's five biggest wins IMO have been:

at North Carolina (+0.67), at NC State (+0.63), at Northwestern (+0.58), Virginia (+0.57), and North Carolina (+0.45)

worst losses:  Florida State (-0.87), Clemson (-0.66), VCU (neutral) (-0.57), at Vanderbilt (-0.55) and Michigan (neutral) (-0.49)

For comparison, Indiana's five best wins:

at Xavier (+0.75), at Illinois (+0.73), Purdue (+0.72), Ohio State (+0.46), North Carolina (+0.45).

worst losses:

Northwestern (-0.63), at Penn St (-0.39),  at Iowa (-0.31), at Maryland (-0.26), and Arizona (neutral) (-0.25)

 

[Hoosierfan1901 6,433]

TeamRankings now projects:

99% chance to make the tournament 

Likely seed is #6, but heavily trending to 4 and 5 spots 

Still 19 wins or 20 wins will get us in

[Uspshoosier 46,621]

11 hours ago, Hoosierfan1901 said:

TeamRankings now projects:

99% chance to make the tournament 

Likely seed is #6, but heavily trending to 4 and 5 spots 

Still 19 wins or 20 wins will get us in

18 wins will most likely get IU in if it came down to it but I wouldn’t recommend them finding out.   19 or 20 wins and they are 100 percent in.   

[str8baller 5,584]

9 hours ago, Hoosierfan1901 said:

TeamRankings now projects:

99% chance to make the tournament 

Likely seed is #6, but heavily trending to 4 and 5 spots 

Still 19 wins or 20 wins will get us in

Finishing strong and getting a 4 or 5 would be quite the feat considering what these guys have went through. 

[RaceToTheTop 26,444]

3 hours ago, Uspshoosier said:

18 wins will most likely get IU in if it came down to it but I wouldn’t recommend them finding out.   19 or 20 wins and they are 100 percent in.   

That's what I have it at.  18 wins in the regular season would give them a project +1.05 WAR.  +1 was the magic number last season.  But 18 wins + no BTT wins would drop them below +1.  I think 19 wins -- regular season or BTT -- gets them in.

[HoosierHoopster 7,261]

^^ Yeah, and remaining schedule

Rutger

@MU

@NW

Ill

@MSU

@PU

Iowa

MU

I think 19 is our floor, we're not going to go worse than 3-5, more likely, imo, at least 20 wins with, at least, 4-4, good shot for 5-3 imo

[Stuhoo 81,972]

22 minutes ago, HoosierHoopster said:

^^ Yeah, and remaining schedule

Rutger

@MU

@NW

Ill

@MSU

@PU

Iowa

MU

I think 19 is our floor, we're not going to go worse than 3-5, more likely, imo, at least 20 wins with, at least, 4-4, good shot for 5-3 imo

It'd be damn nice to go two for two with top of the conference Purdue and Rutgers, because we'll be slight underdogs in four of the next five (and then favored in the last two). 

 

[Uspshoosier 46,621]

Interesting note on the Big 12 is that as of now they have 6 teams that are projected to be protected seeds(1-4).   That will throw a wrench in the bracketing rules if this holds up.    No conference has had that many protected seeds from the same conference.   Usually if a conference has 4 protected seeds they get separated in each region so they can’t matchup before the final 4.  If you have 6 teams that are protected seeds then that can’t happen.    We have seen teams from the same conference matchup as early as the second round(Sparty/Minny) a couple years ago but they were not protected seeds and they only played once during the year.   It will be interesting to see if this holds up 

[hoosierdogg 3,215]

1 hour ago, HoosierHoopster said:

^^ Yeah, and remaining schedule

Rutger

@MU

@NW

Ill

@MSU

@PU

Iowa

MU

I think 19 is our floor, we're not going to go worse than 3-5, more likely, imo, at least 20 wins with, at least, 4-4, good shot for 5-3 imo

FWIW, ESPN Matchup Predictor has IU favored to win all remaining games except @PU.  That would be 23 wins, I'll take that!  Other than @ PUke, the @ MSU would concern me the most. 

[realTomCrean 1,677]

15 minutes ago, hoosierdogg said:

FWIW, ESPN Matchup Predictor has IU favored to win all remaining games except @PU.  That would be 23 wins, I'll take that!  Other than @ PUke, the @ MSU would concern me the most. 

The two games in Michigan and in W Laf are scary 

[HoosierHoopster 7,261]

1 hour ago, hoosierdogg said:

FWIW, ESPN Matchup Predictor has IU favored to win all remaining games except @PU.  That would be 23 wins, I'll take that!  Other than @ PUke, the @ MSU would concern me the most. 

I'm not that rosy on our outlook, but I do think we have a legit shot at getting to 21. We're going to need to play tough up front in several of these games, but I like the energy and communication we've shown recently across the floor and am very big on how JHS is running the floor.

[str8baller 5,584]

Lunardi has us at 17 or the first 5th seed. Last 4 is Iowa State. 

[RaceToTheTop 26,444]

North Carolina maybe on the bubble?  Bracketmatrix had them as a 10 seed today -- in on 99 of 105 brackets.  They lost at Wake Forest tonight which isn't a bad loss but they need wins.

[Uspshoosier 46,621]

6 hours ago, RaceToTheTop said:

North Carolina maybe on the bubble?  Bracketmatrix had them as a 10 seed today -- in on 99 of 105 brackets.  They lost at Wake Forest tonight which isn't a bad loss but they need wins.

They are in my last 4 in as of now.     I’m selfish but I want North Carolina and Kentucky to both be in the first 4 just so I can see them play live.   That would be awesome if they were matched up. I’m guessing we could sell out tickets for a pretty good price if we wanted to if that happened.   I still wouldn’t sell though. Tradition trumps making money 

[Stuhoo 81,972]

25 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

They are in my last 4 in as of now.     I’m selfish but I want North Carolina and Kentucky to both be in the first 4 just so I can see them play live.   That would be awesome if they were matched up. I’m guessing we could sell out tickets for a pretty good price if we wanted to if that happened.   I still wouldn’t sell though. Tradition trumps making money 

UK vs UNC for the play-in game. And UNC wins by 30.

#magical

[LIHoosier 26,642]

IU bumps up two spots to #20 in NET.

Sent from my SM-S901U using Tapatalk

[realTomCrean 1,677]

1 hour ago, LIHoosier said:

IU bumps up two spots to #20 in NET.

Sent from my SM-S901U using Tapatalk
 

It feels like a win does nothing and a loss sends us spiraling. Ugh the life of a fan

[RaceToTheTop 26,444]

3 hours ago, Uspshoosier said:

They are in my last 4 in as of now.     I’m selfish but I want North Carolina and Kentucky to both be in the first 4 just so I can see them play live.   That would be awesome if they were matched up. I’m guessing we could sell out tickets for a pretty good price if we wanted to if that happened.   I still wouldn’t sell though. Tradition trumps making money 

I currently have North Carolina as out on my WAR, but I think that's probably a little bullish.  Kentucky is on the last bye line.

I have some time today to reconcile the ratings with updated rankings in the schedule, so I'm going to do that and see what shakes out.  Got up and furnace needed fixed so I had to take the day off, but that went quicker than expected so I have some time.

[Hoosier987 1,336]

Looks like big gains on net rankings come from double digit wins on the road. Opportunity awaits Saturday but Michigan is borderline Quad 1 or 2 game. They’re number 70 in Net.

[RaceToTheTop 26,444]

1 hour ago, realTomCrean said:

It feels like a win does nothing and a loss sends us spiraling. Ugh the life of a fan

That's actually the life of a husband arguing with his wife.