Bracketology and Team Resumes

[TheWatShot]

36 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

IU is a 9 seed in the medias mock selection they did today.  Still want to see how the actual committee seeds the top 16 this Saturday to see what they value.   The number to pay attention to is WAB.  They are pushing this metric hard.    If IU only wins 2 more games but their WAB is low 40s or high 30s then i would be confident they would still get selected.   Results based gets you selected while predictive helps your seeding.   If IU gets selected their seeding will be higher then people will think if their predictive metrics stay as good as they are.   

Thankfully the committee doesn't consist of all the old heads on IU message boards who think we have to win the BTT. 

[Uspshoosier]

5 minutes ago, TheWatShot said:

Thankfully the committee doesn't consist of all the old heads on IU message boards who think we have to win the BTT. 

A lot of people wrote them off after a tough 4 game losing streak and took that opportunity to say they weren’t a tourney team and would be lucky to win 7 conference games.  Reality is  they are basically exactly where most the national basketball media and most fans thought they would be at this point.  Even with a flawed roster DeVries has them positioned to make the tourney in his first year(all I heard over the summer was just find a way to get in the tourney).   Still have 5 regular season games left but as of today IU is a projected tourney team.   

[Shooter]

18 hours ago, Uspshoosier said:

A lot of people wrote them off after a tough 4 game losing streak and took that opportunity to say they weren’t a tourney team and would be lucky to win 7 conference games.  Reality is  they are basically exactly where most the national basketball media and most fans thought they would be at this point.  Even with a flawed roster DeVries has them positioned to make the tourney in his first year(all I heard over the summer was just find a way to get in the tourney).   Still have 5 regular season games left but as of today IU is a projected tourney team.   

Right on. My expectation to call season 1 a "success" was to make the tourney comfortably. Meaning, when Selection Sunday rolls around, we are just watching to find out our seed. Not whether or not we make it. Even if it's an 8 or 9 seed, that's acceptable for season 1.

We are currently on track to hit this goal.

[Uspshoosier]

Top 16 projection 

1. Michigan 

2.  Duke 

3. Arizona 

4. Houston 

5.  Iowa St 

6.  Illinois 

7.  Uconn

8.  Purdue 

9.   Florida 

10.  Kansas 

11.  Sparty  

12.  Nebraska 

13.  Zags 

14.   Texas Tech 

15.  Virginia 

16.  Bama 

next in line 

Arkansas, Vandy, Tenn, St John’s 

[HoosierDevils]

Appreciate that IU is still on track to make the tournament which is definitely what we wanted in year 1 for DDV, but hard to shake the feeling that it’ll largely be due to a historically weak bubble 

 

[str8baller]

4 hours ago, Uspshoosier said:

15.  Virginia 

I think they’re a version of Lville last year, feasting on weak ACC teams. But still a nice coaching job by a first year guy with a brand new roster. 

[Uspshoosier]

Dropped to 37th in the NET 

WAB dropped 2 to 43.   (This is the number to watch.  Every at-large team with a WAB of 42 or better got in the tourney last year 

[Jeff Flabjohns]

4 hours ago, HoosierDevils said:

Appreciate that IU is still on track to make the tournament which is definitely what we wanted in year 1 for DDV, but hard to shake the feeling that it’ll largely be due to a historically weak bubble 

 

A third consecutive year of no quality non-con wins could do us in again. 

If we lose big to Sparty, that OSU game might be like the one last year—two teams fighting for a higher NIT seed. 

[Hoosierfan1901]

Top 16 #1 seeds NCAA preview

Midwest - Michigan (1)

East- Duke (2)

West - Arizona (3)

South - Iowa State (4)

[Pagoda]

Prediction markets still have us as a 80-85% chance to make it.

I get it feels worse than that with some of these recent score lines and individual player trends.  Personally I’ve got plenty of concerns.

But, the odds are what they are, and I’m glad they’re optimistic.

[Jeff Flabjohns]

Doesn’t help we’re going to go 2+ weeks between wins. The extra time to prep/rest didn’t do squat for the last two games 

[Hoosierfan1901]

NCAA top 16 Preview

Midwest

1- Michigan (1)

2- Houston (6)

3- Florida (9)

4- Virginia (16)

East 

1- Duke (2)

2- Illinois (7)

3- Kansas (10)

4- Vanderbilt (15)

West 

1- Arizona (3)

2- Purdue (8)

3- Gonzaga (12)

4- Michigan State (14)

South

1- Iowa State (4)

2- UConn (5)

3- Nebraska (11)

4- Texas Tech (13)

[Uspshoosier]

 

[Jeff Flabjohns]

36 NET. Minnesota road loss moves to Q1 for the moment, so 2-10 in Q1 games and only 2-0 in Q2.

KSU and Marquette not being even Q2 games continues to be such a bummer. We’ve played 5 of the 8 lowest NET P5 teams. 

[WayneFleekHoosier]

11 minutes ago, Jeff Flabjohns said:

36 NET. Minnesota road loss moves to Q1 for the moment, so 2-10 in Q1 games and only 2-0 in Q2.

KSU and Marquette not being even Q2 games continues to be such a bummer. We’ve played 5 of the 8 lowest NET P5 teams. 

It’s why we have 17 wins.  Wouldn’t have that otherwise. 

[Jeff Flabjohns]

Record and quality wins are right in line with last year.
Beating bad teams by more and getting blown out vs good teams by slightly less has kept the NET higher this season. 

[Uspshoosier]

2 hours ago, WayneFleekHoosier said:

It’s why we have 17 wins.  Wouldn’t have that otherwise. 

The flip side of that is 8 (4 on the road to top 12 teams )of the 10 losses are to top 30 NET.  For a bottom of the bracket seeded team that’s tough.  Wouldn’t have that many losses otherwise if they were able to play some of the teams Acc and big east teams get to play in their conference.  Not many get right right games.   IU is 10-10 in meaningful games.   Q1-Q3.   

IU was never going to be a top of the bracket seeded team in my opinion this year and only a top seeded team would have more wins against that top 25 schedule.   Is what it is.    They are a flawed bottom of the bracket seeded team that has results that back that up.    

[TheWatShot]

Not that it makes a huge difference, but our non-con SOS has found its way below 300 as it does seemingly every year. I keep thinking we'll either finally figure out how to schedule or maybe we just happen to schedule a bunch of overachievers in the same season. 

[Uspshoosier]

11 minutes ago, TheWatShot said:

Not that it makes a huge difference, but our non-con SOS has found its way below 300 as it does seemingly every year. I keep thinking we'll either finally figure out how to schedule or maybe we just happen to schedule a bunch of overachievers in the same season. 

Net non con sos has been around the 200s for  a while.  It hasn’t been close to the 300s.   25th overall 

[str8baller]

1 hour ago, TheWatShot said:

Not that it makes a huge difference, but our non-con SOS has found its way below 300 as it does seemingly every year. I keep thinking we'll either finally figure out how to schedule or maybe we just happen to schedule a bunch of overachievers in the same season. 

TBF, I think lots of us thought it was pretty smart scheduling before the season started. KSU isn’t ever likely to be great but typically solid enough. And Marquette is on a historically bad run that couldn't be predicted; they’re usually guaranteed to be somewhere from an 8seed to 3 seed type of team. Heck, even the Baylor exhibition, which doesn’t factor into anything, gave us false hope as they are historically bad.  UK is down a bit and Lville isn’t as good as maybe thought.  
 

The one thing I will say was that if we ever get back to being an actual good program, I do like the mid February out of conference game like Michigan just played.