Bracketology and Team Resumes

[RaceToTheTop]

3 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

Anything after Friday it seems they don’t factor it but if it’s before that then they take it into account.  IU beat Michigan and Illinois in Woodys first year and needed both those games to get in.  IU was second to last team in that year.  If they wouldn’t have won those conference tourney games they would have been out. 

Then again, that same year everybody had Michigan on the bubble and despite losing to IU in the opener of the tournament, they were seeded ahead of IU.

[Uspshoosier]

1 minute ago, RaceToTheTop said:

I assume by 4 over .500 you mean 4 more wins than a .500 record because 19-11 would be 8 games over .500, right?

I think being 19-11 puts it in the hands of the committee and bid stealers.  I'm hoping for at least 20-10 where even if you had UNC's AD making the field out, IU would be in.

Yeah.  He said that people said they had to win out to get in.  That would be 22-9 which.  At-large teams usually need to be at least 4 games over .500.  So winning out doesn’t have to happen for IU to get in they just need to be at-least 4 games over .500 with the wins 

[Uspshoosier]

Still have to see how other teams around the bubble do to know for sure but IU could get in with just 2 more wins but if they win 3 more games in the regular season then it’s a wrap they will be in with breathing room.  

[Uspshoosier]

IU fans should be Wisky fans.  Wisky is 33 in the NET.  If they get to 30 then that becomes a Q1 win.  The more Q1 wins the better 

[Uspshoosier]

Reminder IU results don’t happen in a vacuum.  Other teams around IU are going to move up or move down just like IU will.   If they don’t find the wins in the regular season then they will still have the conference tourney to improve on the resume 

[WayneFleekHoosier]

I’m with Stu, likely need 3 of 6.  I don’t like our odds at OSU if they are still alive.  They might lose enough before that to zap their enthusiasm.  Getting 3 home wins in a row would be gigantic, especially with MSU.  
 

[HoosierHoopster]

26 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

IU fans should be Wisky fans.  Wisky is 33 in the NET.  If they get to 30 then that becomes a Q1 win.  The more Q1 wins the better 

I hate Wiscy — but I’ll root for them now

[RaceToTheTop]

32 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

Reminder IU results don’t happen in a vacuum.  Other teams around IU are going to move up or move down just like IU will.   If they don’t find the wins in the regular season then they will still have the conference tourney to improve on the resume 

With the play in games starting on Tuesday instead of Wednesday, it’s possible that the ncaa has an extra round they will be factoring in this year from the BTT

[Uspshoosier]

6 minutes ago, RaceToTheTop said:

With the play in games starting on Tuesday instead of Wednesday

You talking about the BTT starting on Tuesday instead of Wednesday and including every team now?  

[Hoosierfan1901]

USI got eliminated from the OVC Tournament over the weekend. Hoping for an At large bid by the good gracious of the committee!

[RaceToTheTop]

34 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

You talking about the BTT starting on Tuesday instead of Wednesday and including every team now?  

I just looked at the bracket and it doesn't really seem like the new BTT bracket would hurt or harm a bubble team's chances (I'm referring to seeds likely from 8 to 11).  Both last year and this year it would likely be Thursday before those teams played a game that could help their cause.

[IUHoosierJoe]

For those biting their nails about IU getting in the tournament if they lose 3 more games, I give you this: Joe Lunardi still has IU as a 9 seed in his latest bracket this morning, same as last Friday, even with the 20-point loss to Illinois.

Moreover, consider this: Last Friday, Virginia Tech was either in Lunardi’s first 4 out or next 4 out (I can’t remember which). Over the weekend, they lost 92-69 on their home court to a Florida State team that came into the game with an 11-13 record. Today, Virginia Tech still appears as one of Lunardi’s next 4 out.

Moral of the story: bubble teams are very flawed, and IU will not have to be even close to perfect to get in. 

[str8baller]

1 hour ago, IUHoosierJoe said:

give you this: Joe Lunardi still has IU as a 9 seed in his latest bracket this morning, same as last Friday, even with the 20-point loss to Illinois.

They shouldn’t move in hardly any models after the Illinois loss nor will they move much after the Purdue loss, because almost no model will have us winning those games (or assign a very low probability to it). 
 

Assuming we lose Fri., it’ll be interesting to see what things look like heading into and coming out of the MSU game. I think we’ll be underdogs but since it’s at home it’ll likely be close. Same with OSU. We’re probably going to be like 50/50ish to win each game so the models having us at a 9 seed will ding us if we drop both. The question is if we just win 2 do we drop to a “safe 11 seed” or something right on the cut line. As you guys have pointed out in this thread, then we’ll be counting bid stealers and rooting for bubble teams to lose. 

[realTomCrean]

14 hours ago, WayneFleekHoosier said:

I’m with Stu, likely need 3 of 6.  I don’t like our odds at OSU if they are still alive.  They might lose enough before that to zap their enthusiasm.  Getting 3 home wins in a row would be gigantic, especially with MSU.  
 

Terrible spot regardless imo. Bruce Thornton’s last home game at OSU. Started every single game of his career there, actually incredible he’s never played in March Madness

[Golfman25]

2 hours ago, IUHoosierJoe said:

For those biting their nails about IU getting in the tournament if they lose 3 more games, I give you this: Joe Lunardi still has IU as a 9 seed in his latest bracket this morning, same as last Friday, even with the 20-point loss to Illinois.

Moreover, consider this: Last Friday, Virginia Tech was either in Lunardi’s first 4 out or next 4 out (I can’t remember which). Over the weekend, they lost 92-69 on their home court to a Florida State team that came into the game with an 11-13 record. Today, Virginia Tech still appears as one of Lunardi’s next 4 out.

Moral of the story: bubble teams are very flawed, and IU will not have to be even close to perfect to get in. 

IDK.  Is he projecting based on whether he expects the team to win or lose the remaining games?  If he projected IU to lose at IL, then IU did what was expected and nothing would change.  Now if they upset Purdorks, the seeding should change, no.  

 

Edit: probably should have read ballers post first.  :) 

[Home Jersey]

15 minutes ago, realTomCrean said:

Terrible spot regardless imo. Bruce Thornton’s last home game at OSU. Started every single game of his career there, actually incredible he’s never played in March Madness

The fact he's never played in March Madness makes it seem like OSU isn't actually very scary.

[HoosierHoopster]

52 minutes ago, Home Jersey said:

The fact he's never played in March Madness makes it seem like OSU isn't actually very scary.

No Jinxes!!

[WayneFleekHoosier]

54 minutes ago, Home Jersey said:

The fact he's never played in March Madness makes it seem like OSU isn't actually very scary.

hopefully their window has shrunk to winning the B1G tourney by that point.  

[Uspshoosier]

IU is a 9 seed in the medias mock selection they did today.  Still want to see how the actual committee seeds the top 16 this Saturday to see what they value.   The number to pay attention to is WAB.  They are pushing this metric hard.    If IU only wins 2 more games but their WAB is low 40s or high 30s then i would be confident they would still get selected.   Results based gets you selected while predictive helps your seeding.   If IU gets selected their seeding will be higher then people will think if their predictive metrics stay as good as they are.   

[RaceToTheTop]

28 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

IU is a 9 seed in the medias mock selection they did today.  Still want to see how the actual committee seeds the top 16 this Saturday to see what they value.   The number to pay attention to is WAB.  They are pushing this metric hard.    If IU only wins 2 more games but their WAB is low 40s or high 30s then i would be confident they would still get selected.   Results based gets you selected while predictive helps your seeding.   If IU gets selected their seeding will be higher then people will think if their predictive metrics stay as good as they are.   

I was doing WAB before the NCAA was (I called it WAR).  Basically I calculated the winning percentage of a bubble team against a sampling of teams based on their Pom rating and whether the team was home, road, or away.  If you played a team that a bubble team would have a 70% chance of beating, you would get a .3 WAR for a win and a -.7 for a loss.  A team that a bubble team has a 30% chance of beating would earn you a .7 for a win and a -.3 for a loss.  WAB does the same but their calculations for the percentage a bubble team has beating an opponent uses a different formula.