AZ Hoosier Posted January 30 Posted January 30 7 minutes ago, Pagoda said: My unscientific read on the fanbase is most would have a more negative view on our tourney odds than the actual current odds. I was a little surprised on the optimism in the betting markets, though it was nice to see. Tbd… Put me down for "cautiously optimistic". The win over Purdue has buoyed my optimism somewhat. I'm more than willing to give CDDV time to get his legs under him. For whatever reason, he was put behind early on with regard to building a staff and building a roster. With a few "surprise" wins and winning the games we should win, I think we're in, but barely. We've got to walk the tightrope and not lose games we definitely should win. And if CDDV can get this team to peak for the B1G tournament and beyond, I like our chances. HoosierHoopster and ALASKA HOOSIER 2 Quote
Golfman25 Posted January 30 Posted January 30 Tomorrow against UCLA is the make or break game of the season. We’ll either be pointing up or down based on that game. ALASKA HOOSIER 1 Quote
Uspshoosier Posted January 30 Author Posted January 30 35 minutes ago, Golfman25 said: Tomorrow against UCLA is the make or break game of the season. They got USC in the next game. If they lose to ucla then they still have a chance to leave LA with a split and that’s honestly what should be expected is trying to split between 2 teams on the road that are lower seeded projected tourney teams HoosierHoopster, Hollywood Mike Miranda, str8baller and 2 others 5 Quote
str8baller Posted January 30 Posted January 30 42 minutes ago, Pagoda said: My unscientific read on the fanbase is most would have a more negative view on our tourney odds than the actual current odds. I was a little surprised on the optimism in the betting markets, though it was nice to see. Tbd… Wagers like that are almost all analytics based. Nobody is in the back room watching games and making projections. And the analytics (kenpom, torvick,etc..) are much higher on us than our actual results. Now I’m not going to complain because the whole woody era we complained about him not understanding the analytical side in scheduling and so forth. But I’m just saying…realistically we’re much closer to 50/50 and you’re getting better than 2x odds on one side of the bet. Spend your kids’ college funds wisely, folks… Home Jersey 1 Quote
Uspshoosier Posted January 30 Author Posted January 30 1 minute ago, str8baller said: realistically we’re much closer to 50/50 and you’re getting better than 2x odds on one side of the bet. So are about 8 other teams that are on the bubble. All these teams have flaws. It’s why they are on the bubble. Most teams will play themselves off the bubble HoosierHoopster 1 Quote
Golfman25 Posted January 30 Posted January 30 37 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said: They got USC in the next game. If they lose to ucla then they still have a chance to leave LA with a split and that’s honestly what should be expected is trying to split between 2 teams on the road that are lower seeded projected tourney teams We have 10 games left. If we want to control our destiny, I think we need to win 6. 5 could work, but 6 is better. Find me 6, or even 5 wins in the next 10 games. It starts with UCLA and then USC. Win those two, and the table is set. Split and we are in a world of hurt. Of the 10 games left, IL, Purdon't and MSU are all potential losses. Which leaves 1 (maybe 2) losses in play. An early Sat AM game against Wis. never goes right given recent history. Bottom line, we have our work cut out for us. A win at UCLA gets us going in the right direction. Quote
Brass Cannon Posted January 30 Posted January 30 2 minutes ago, Golfman25 said: We have 10 games left. If we want to control our destiny, I think we need to win 6. 5 could work, but 6 is better. Find me 6, or even 5 wins in the next 10 games. It starts with UCLA and then USC. Win those two, and the table is set. Split and we are in a world of hurt. Of the 10 games left, IL, Purdon't and MSU are all potential losses. Which leaves 1 (maybe 2) losses in play. An early Sat AM game against Wis. never goes right given recent history. Bottom line, we have our work cut out for us. A win at UCLA gets us going in the right direction. 6 with a BTT would be a very strong case. Delphi has us as in atm. 21 wins would be hard to imagine we fall out HoosierHoopster and str8baller 2 Quote
Stuhoo Posted January 30 Posted January 30 2 minutes ago, Golfman25 said: We have 10 games left. If we want to control our destiny, I think we need to win 6. 5 could work, but 6 is better. Find me 6, or even 5 wins in the next 10 games. It starts with UCLA and then USC. Win those two, and the table is set. Split and we are in a world of hurt. Of the 10 games left, IL, Purdon't and MSU are all potential losses. Which leaves 1 (maybe 2) losses in play. An early Sat AM game against Wis. never goes right given recent history. Bottom line, we have our work cut out for us. A win at UCLA gets us going in the right direction. The next two are tourney teams and on the road. Split the two and it is 100% a net positive. Shooter, Home Jersey, str8baller and 2 others 5 Quote
Uspshoosier Posted January 30 Author Posted January 30 3 minutes ago, Golfman25 said: A win at UCLA gets us going in the right direction. They could win at UCLA and then lose 9 straight. UCLA game is just 1 piece of the puzzle. People thought they should have won at Minny and they lost. People thought they would lose to Purdue and they won. IU is bubble team that will have plenty of opportunities to play themselves off the bubble or play themselves out of consideration Muskie plays the four, JF87, HoosierHoopster and 2 others 4 1 Quote
HoosierHoopster Posted January 30 Posted January 30 1 hour ago, str8baller said: Spend your kids’ college funds wisely, folks… Too late. :( Home Jersey and str8baller 2 Quote
Stuhoo Posted January 30 Posted January 30 56 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said: They could win at UCLA and then lose 9 straight. UCLA game is just 1 piece of the puzzle. People thought they should have won at Minny and they lost. People thought they would lose to Purdue and they won. IU is bubble team that will have plenty of opportunities to play themselves off the bubble or play themselves out of consideration You make this point every season, you are always 100% spot-on when you make it, and still people assess the situation differently. It must take great self-control not to type "pay attention--this is reality!" And that reality is: the one thing that is all but certain is that things will not go as expected for pretty much any bubble team. We may win at Purdue and MSU, and dump the home game against Oregon for all I know. Probably not? Sure. But when a team has 10-12 games left to build their resume, the odds are overwhelming that it'll win a 40/60 game or two, and lose a 60/40 game or two. Class of '66 Old Fart, Uspshoosier, HoosierHoopster and 2 others 5 Quote
Uspshoosier Posted January 30 Author Posted January 30 2 hours ago, Stuhoo said: It must take great self-control not to type "pay attention--this is reality!" I get it. Most on here only care about IU results and think IU games are played in a vacuum. They could care less what other bubble teams are doing throughout the year. Fans of teams normally hang on to each result like it’s life or death. My lens is through the eyes of a bracketologist instead of a fan. 32 pieces of the puzzle to get the whole picture. Looking forward to seeing if they take advantage of the opportunities that will be in front of them Muskie plays the four, BGleas and Stuhoo 3 Quote
Uspshoosier Posted January 31 Author Posted January 31 If you want to hear non Indiana fans talk about IU on the bubble. Got to fast forward to the last 4 in talk if you don’t want to watch the whole thing Stuhoo 1 Quote
Shooter Posted January 31 Posted January 31 3 hours ago, Stuhoo said: You make this point every season, you are always 100% spot-on when you make it, and still people assess the situation differently. It must take great self-control not to type "pay attention--this is reality!" And that reality is: the one thing that is all but certain is that things will not go as expected for pretty much any bubble team. We may win at Purdue and MSU, and dump the home game against Oregon for all I know. Probably not? Sure. But when a team has 10-12 games left to build their resume, the odds are overwhelming that it'll win a 40/60 game or two, and lose a 60/40 game or two. Agree, but we only have 5 of those "60/40" or "40/60" type games left. Including the next three in a row. So it's not hyperbole to say this next little stretch is crucial to our chances. str8baller 1 Quote
Uspshoosier Posted January 31 Author Posted January 31 9 minutes ago, Shooter said: Agree, but we only have 5 of those "60/40" or "40/60" type games left. Including the next three in a row. So it's not hyperbole to say this next little stretch is crucial to our chances. You counting Sparty at home in the 5? Rutgers had them beat at home. I personally look at the Sparty home game as a game where IU has a chance to to win HoosierHoopster and Stuhoo 2 Quote
Jeff Flabjohns Posted January 31 Posted January 31 1 hour ago, Uspshoosier said: I get it. Most on here only care about IU results and think IU games are played in a vacuum. They could care less what other bubble teams are doing throughout the year. Fans of teams normally hang on to each result like it’s life or death. My lens is through the eyes of a bracketologist instead of a fan. 32 pieces of the puzzle to get the whole picture. Looking forward to seeing if they take advantage of the opportunities that will be in front of them A puzzle we’ve completed successfully twice over the last decade. Been on the wrong side of the bubble a lot, don’t have to watch all the games to see that. No even decent OOC wins for the third straight year. Looks like another 19-12, 10-10 season…At least our metrics (and coach) are better this season. Quote
Stuhoo Posted January 31 Posted January 31 47 minutes ago, Shooter said: Agree, but we only have 5 of those "60/40" or "40/60" type games left. Including the next three in a row. So it's not hyperbole to say this next little stretch is crucial to our chances. Seven or eight; we have about the same chance of beating MSU at home as Minny has of beating us, for instance. Muskie plays the four, Uspshoosier and Jeff Flabjohns 3 Quote
Uspshoosier Posted January 31 Author Posted January 31 22 minutes ago, Jeff Flabjohns said: A puzzle we’ve completed successfully twice over the last decade. Been on the wrong side of the bubble a lot, don’t have to watch all the games to see that. Ius past failures have nothing to do with this years puzzle. IU has plenty of opportunities to improve their resume. They will either do it or they won’t Quote
Jeff Flabjohns Posted January 31 Posted January 31 Just now, Uspshoosier said: They will either do it or they won’t Big, if true. str8baller 1 Quote
Uspshoosier Posted January 31 Author Posted January 31 2 minutes ago, Jeff Flabjohns said: Big, if true. It’s Big Quote
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