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Posted
14 minutes ago, Aaron said:

You guys are way over thinking this. It is very simple and so far things have not gone well.

#1 Alabama will make playoff regardless

#2 ND will make playoff regardless 

#3 Clemson is in playoff with a win but relegated to Orange Bowl with loss. This knocks UNC out of New Years 6 who is below us in rankings but in with ACC auto bid. Clemson would take this with with loss, opening up an at large spot for IU even if they stay 11.

#4 OSU will make playoff regardless

#5 TAMU is a New Years 6 Lock or will elevate to Clemson's playoff spot if they lose

#6 Iowa St would need to fall below IU in rankings and IU move to 10 to get at large bid if Clemson wins

#7 Florida would need to lose Alabama and fall below IU in rankings for us to move to 10 and at large bid if Clemson wins

#8 Georgia is not playing and will get a New Years 6 spot 

#9 Cincinnati will get in to New Years 6 as highest ranked non power 5 team with win. With loss Coastal will get this auto bid

#10 Oklahoma is into New Years 6 as Big 12 Champ

#11 IU is first team out of New Years 6 if Clemson wins unless they jump Iowa St. or Florida in rankings tomorrow. If Clemson loses and is relegated to Orange Bowl IU will get an auto spot even if they stay at 11.

No one below us will jump us since they either lost or are not playing. 

Also Oregon has Auto Bid to Fiesta Bowl as Pac 12 Champ despite their less than stellar record. 

Lots of unfairness but given rules and how things are playing out this is reality.

I will update this as games end and more results known.

In other words, the current state that summarizes all of my posts in this thread over the past week while I evaluated things as they played out and most certainly did not way over think things. 

Posted

I suppose a huge Notre Dame loss which looks possible could elevate A+M and knock Notre Dame to Orange Bowl which would do same trick to let IU in at 11 but would not count on it. 

Posted

Just reiterating a point I made earlier in the week so we can collectively pout about it. The benefit UNC is likely gonna get from the Orange bowl not hosting a semifinal is exactly what we would be doing if the Rose was not a semi this year. If it were just a NY6 bowl, we’d have been popping champagne as soon as OSU won today (probably). Now everyone join me in a quick 10 to 15 minute pout.

Posted

In another blow to IU, Alabama is being given everything they can handle from Fla. Unless they drop ND out of playoff which I would not count on I would prepare to get a Citrus Bowl bid. Thats the reality at this point as things could not have gone worse for IU from Bowl perspective.

Posted
1 minute ago, Aaron said:

In another blow to IU, Alabama is being given everything they can handle from Fla. Unless they drop ND out of playoff which I would not count on I would prepare to get a Citrus Bowl bid. Thats the reality at this point as things could not have gone worse for IU from Bowl perspective.

Ar this point I'm hoping for a Florida win. No way the committee drops the gators far. I don't think they will make the playoff either, but its more likely than them dropping like they should. 

Posted
3 minutes ago, NashvilleHoosier said:

Yeah this is a bummer. It’s not crazy to think the committee drops ND out. And they still have to consciously put two 3 loss teams ahead of us, but I’d count on it. Ultimately how crazy is it that we are going to be bummed out by making the best bowl game we’ve made in like 30 years.

Thats my thought. Really sucks committee is going to hose us but before season if you had said we would either be last team in New Year's 6 or first team out of it in Citrus Bowl people would of laughed. Either way best bowl since 1967.

Posted
24 minutes ago, Aaron said:

In another blow to IU, Alabama is being given everything they can handle from Fla. Unless they drop ND out of playoff which I would not count on I would prepare to get a Citrus Bowl bid. Thats the reality at this point as things could not have gone worse for IU from Bowl perspective.

It's a 14 point lead now.  How the rest of the game plays out could really determine what happens to Florida's rank.  If it ends up as a 17 or 21 point game, they'll slip.  7 to 10?  They won't.

What sucks is that the LSU loss should have been what made them fall.  Completely unexplainable that it didn't.

Posted
1 minute ago, brumdog45 said:

Rose Bowl moved to Dallas.

What ******* sucks IMO is that they are simply just caving to Brian Kelly's ridiculous ***** fest.  Might also signal they are putting ND in the CFP.

https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/college-football-playoff-relocates-rose-bowl-semifinal-to-dallas-amid-covid-19-concerns-attendance-policy/

Don't think those are related. It was being moved regardless and has been talked about for days. ND may very well make playoff but don't think thats connected.

Posted
3 minutes ago, Aaron said:

Don't think those are related. It was being moved regardless and has been talked about for days. ND may very well make playoff but don't think thats connected.

Good info.  It just ticks me off to no end that Brian Kelly is bitching about potentially not "allowing" Notre Dame to play in the CFP if families aren't allowed and then seeing the Irish lay a total egg against Clemson and still probably get in.

Know what would make for an interesting decision?  If Florida actually beat Alabama today.

Posted

Anyone want to argue Cincy belongs in playoffs? Committee has screwed a lot up, but appears they were right about CIncy being a massive fraud who had no business anywhere near final four regardless of if they eke this out. 

IU Cincy in Non-Conference early next year should be a great game and IU win would go long way towards getting us to New Years 6 next year with good Big Ten season. 

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