(5) Indiana v. (1) UNC - Pregame Thread

[BlueDevil]

How big are their front court players? Could OG be successful in defending them?

Hicks 6'9" 235
Joel James 6'11" 280
Brice Johnson 6'10" 230
Meeks 6'10" 260
Justin Jackson 6'8" 200

[incrediboy]

"Who makes the shots" is largely a product of spacing, defensive scheme, and playing through the paint.

All these guys shoot really, really well when they are open.

Correct, but I was referring to which team was more "on" from the field. North Carolina can be deadly or horribly cold, but they always seem to be able to get shots. Had our defense not done what it was supposed to do against Kentucky, our shooting would have done us in. For example, NZ missed a couple that he had all day to line up, six points we might have had, something that never happens. We can't afford not to make those against NC. Not picking on Nick...but we have to make the open ones.

[hoosierpap]

I want to preface this by saying regardless of what happens Friday I am so proud of this Indiana team. I'm happy for Crean. I've been critical but am not afraid to admit when I'm wrong. Good for Crean and his family, good for Yogi, good for all of these kids. Now...IU, win this game.

 

 

I think there are a few keys to the game...

 

IU needs to keep TB out of foul trouble. TB changes the dynamic on both ends due to his size and rebounding on defense, and obvious scoring threat on offense. That said, he isn't very polished on defense. TB gets a lot of phantom calls but Crean needs to gameplan to keep him out of foul trouble. To me, this means he shouldn't draw Brice Johnson. TB cannot guard him without fouling. If Crean puts TB on Brice Johnson I really think that's setting him up for failure. IU should use multiple defenders, CH, OG, JM, Max, to guard BJ but not TB. 

 

Inversely, I think UNC will use BJ on TB. I've seen this mentioned and agree...bring TB out to the 3 pt line and free up the lane. Drive, kick, hope we're on. Force it a bit if not at first. This team is too good of a shooting team to not start catching fire. 5th overall at 41.6 % from 3pt range. Shooting is so much about confidence. This team has YF, NZ, RJ all as elite 3 pt shooters with Max holding his own. Let them shoot till they see it go down and you'll see it continue. IU needs to shoot well to win this game and they're due for it.

 

UNC is ranked 308th in 3pt percentage at 31.4%. Pack it in. That may not be a completely accurate perspective as Paige has started hitting from deep lately, but, the point remains. Make UNC shoot. BJ shoots 61% and it is coming from the paint. UNC gets 19.6% of their points from deep which ranks 345th in the country. There are only 351 teams in D1 basketball. Make them beat you with their weakness. 

 

Run the offense through TB. Even if he isn't getting shots up - anyone in chat is probably tired of hearing me talk about this- IU is at it's best when they work the ball through Bryant. If you collapse on Bryant, you're in trouble bc he can really pass the ball well to an assortment of shooters. You also have cutters he can hit. He is also a problem in one on one situations. If UNC doesn't help, it's a good possibility he scores or gets his man in foul trouble.

 

Nick Z..thank you. You have proved me wrong on defense. I have been critical of Z and his defense, but he just guarded a top 5 scoring guard in Jamal Murray and did so effectively. Keep it up. I'm not sure who he guards/if he starts/if Rojo is healthy but keep it up. I guess Berry. IU needs it and it's been a difference maker. 

 

 

Matchups:

 

I think Joel Berry gets YF. Berry can defend, but he isn't near the defender Ullis is. I'm not sure everyone realizes how elite of a defender Ullis is. UNC fans seem confident he will be able to shut YF down, but they're wrong. 

 

YF guards Paige. Paige has been rounding back into form, but I think Yogi can fluster him. Paige is a hell of a player though.

 

Hoping RJ is good to go and can guard Berry. RJ is a great defender and I like him ito shut down Berry.

 

I'm not sure who guards Justin Jackson if OG is out or guarding BJ. I guess TW. That may spell trouble.

 

I put TB on Hicks/Meeks/James, whichever is in...for reasons above.

 

Like I said above, BJ is going to be an issue. I think IU needs to show multiple looks at him unless they find someone that works. He can shoot it from the line (77.8%) so gotta try to force it elsewhere. Truth is, he'll probably get his. But IU would be wise to pack it in, and force his shots to be low percentage shots due to some doubling. 

[Yogi'sBicep]

2-3 zone :) I joke

[HoosierTrav]

I see John Crispin is already writing us off. Just said Melo Trimble is the best guard in college basketball. Also said Kansas versus Maryland is a championship game. I just get the feeling this dude hates IU secretly.

Keep piling it on America.. the hate keeps IU warm at night..

Sent from my SCH-I545 using Tapatalk

Who the hell is John Crispin?

[rebelhoosier848891]

We are truly outmatched in this one talent-wise so we have to win the old fashioned way----with hustle--heart--and smarts.

 

Hit the boards---get on the floor---play with intensity---contest every shot---find the open man----good passes----take care of the ball---don't back down----refuse to lose.

 

If all else fails---get it to Yogi and get out of the way.  He got us here---let him finish the job or go down tryin'!

 

What a great year---this team is special and COULD win it all---whatever happens---I am happy with what we have achieved and so proud to be a Hoosier!  Now--let's beat the Tarheels!

[HoosierAloha]

Pap, I agree with most of what you posted; however, I would attack BJ differently if he is guarding TB.  I would take him to the low post and attempt to get him in foul trouble.  I can see BJ coming out aggressive on defense and attempting to block some shots.  If we can get him in foul trouble or frustrate him we can really take advantage of that.  If he is on Hartman I would definitely pull him away from the rim.  If he is on Troy I would attack him with Troy doing work on the baseline.  I haven't looked at advanced statistics for how foul prone BJ is but we can attack him in many ways.  I'm guessing if BJ is playing the 5 for UNC we have already started to frustrate them and they're playing into our hands. 

 

When IU is on defense I would pack the lane and force them to beat us from outside.  Like ky, when OG comes into the game he gets the assignment of whoever is on for UNC.  I think part of Murray's bad game was having an unheralded frosh getting all up in him.  I feel that could also work on BJ because OG just makes things happen.  I really like the versatility we can bring off the bench and I can imagine how frustrating that can be for teams.  Having Yogi, Z3, and RoJo "on" could really give us a huge advantage in frustrating UNC.

[Chips&Dipo]

Who the hell is John Crispin?

BTN commentator. He was on podcast on the brink a few weeks ago.

[ALASKA HOOSIER]

Well got this

[Hoosier DaDa]

I know we all been saying this about OG all year,but again he is a star in the making. Before the Kentucky game I was saying and others that he should guard Murray. He did a lot of the game and did one heck of a job. A major key of why we won. Well I think his defensive will be key again but this time on Johnson.

Let's think about what OG has done for this team. How many players can you say well I think they should guard the other teams best shooting guard. Then the next game say he should guard the other teams best power forward. I hope he does just as well on Johnson as he did on Murray because that's a key matchup. OG is the most versatile defender I have ever seen. The best part is that he only a freshman and we probably have him for another two years. If OG keeps improving I can see him go after his junior year.

[colonel06]

Good analysis by Hoosierpap!
Just add that "TB " needs to keep TB out of foul trouble! Tar Heels are deep with bigs for sure but can they run an entire game like locomotive Troy and company can? I really think these guys continue to get their lifts in when home and don't know frankly if most teams have the stamina, endurance and overall strength the Hoosiers have. I think it makes sense for this Rocky-like team to maximize this and win again in Philadelphia!

[MartintheMopMan]

Good analysis by Hoosierpap!
Just add that "TB " needs to keep TB out of foul trouble! Tar Heels are deep with bigs for sure but can they run an entire game like locomotive Troy and company can? I really think these guys continue to get their lifts in when home and don't know frankly if most teams have the stamina, endurance and overall strength the Hoosiers have. I think it makes sense for this Rocky-like team to maximize this and win again in Philadelphia!

UNC plays at a higher tempo than we do but seems to run less. Troy will be huge this game, they have a ton of size but for the most part their defensive sets are ripe to be exploited by a player like Troy because once he beats one man he will have the space he needs to shoot under more control.

UNC is also very deep which will help with stamina. Besides playing defense without fouling I hope to see good shot selection in general from us. UNC is exploitable on jump shots and can be forced to spread out if we are getting high percentage looks.

[BlueDevil]

UNC plays at a higher tempo than we do but seems to run less. Troy will be huge this game, they have a ton of size but for the most part their defensive sets are ripe to be exploited by a player like Troy because once he beats one man he will have the space he needs to shoot under more control.

UNC is also very deep which will help with stamina. Besides playing defense without fouling I hope to see good shot selection in general from us. UNC is exploitable on jump shots and can be forced to spread out if we are getting high percentage looks.

Looks should be there all game. Roy said it best at halftime of Duke UNC at chapel hill. UNC loves to run and doesn't really give a damn about how many points they give up as long as they score more than the other team.

[southsidehoosier]

Nicky Z needs a Minnesota like game and Yogi needs to be hitting arrows all night long. No Ullis type player on Yogi should mean step back 3, drive and dishes and great opportunities for transition 3's. Has UNC played a transition team like us this year? 

[southsidehoosier]

Is it really only Tuesday????????

[theriverpilot]

Run the offense through TB. Even if he isn't getting shots up - anyone in chat is probably tired of hearing me talk about this- IU is at it's best when they work the ball through Bryant. If you collapse on Bryant, you're in trouble bc he can really pass the ball well to an assortment of shooters. You also have cutters he can hit. He is also a problem in one on one situations. If UNC doesn't help, it's a good possibility he scores or gets his man in foul trouble.

 

^^This right there will be our major advantage IMO.  

[Naturalhoosier]

SIAP, but this is a cool site that show's teams % chance of winning.

 

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-march-madness-predictions/

[MartintheMopMan]

UNC has an intelligent and basketball oriented fan base right? Why can't I find any posts like this on their forums or articles like on ITH for them? I see more posts about a potential rematch with Wisco than any matchup analysis from their perspective.

[TrueHoosier62]

SIAP, but this is a cool site that show's teams % chance of winning.

 

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-march-madness-predictions/

They don't like our chances against North Carolina. Therefore, I dismiss them out of hand. lol

[MartintheMopMan]

SIAP, but this is a cool site that show's teams % chance of winning.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-march-madness-predictions/

Though, like all sports statistics, it has trouble with the smaller intangibles like match ups. It gave us only a ~20% chance of getting past Kentucky too. I think we had the highest chance of a 12-5 upset too.