Analysis: Where should IU be seeded in the NCAA Tournament?

[IndyHutch 1,718]

I don't think IU has necessarily fallen off of the No. 3 line. At least one Bracketologist agrees with me. What do you think? Here is my take.

It’s the question foremost on the minds of Indiana University basketball fans everywhere.

 

Where will Indiana be seeded when the NCAA unveils the 68-team 2016 tournament field in its Selection Sunday Show on Sunday?

 

A lot of people felt that Indiana was a No. 3 seed heading into Friday’s quarterfinal round of the Big Ten Tournament. After the buzzer beating 72-69 loss to Michigan, however, the sentiment was that IU may have slipped a spot to a No. 4 seed.

 

The sentiment was also that instead of playing closer to home Indiana might have to travel a distance for the first two games.

 

So what do you think?

 

Let’s begin with the seed itself. Should Indiana be a No. 3 or a No. 4? My guess is that it will be one or the other.

 

I’m still not convinced that Indiana has slipped off of the No. 3 line. While I think a win in the Big Ten Tournament would have improved IU’s chances to stay there, I’m just not certain that Friday’s lost was damaging enough to force the Hoosiers to fall. Michigan is not a bad team. In fact, those that think the Wolverines are still on the outside looking in after the loss to Purdue Saturday may have another thing coming.

 

I think the Wolverines have proven themselves worthy to be an NCAA Tournament team.

 

So what do the Bracketologists say?

 

ESPN’s Joe Lunardi has Indiana as a No. 4 seed facing No. 13 Chattanooga in Spokane, Wash. On the other side of that tandem is No. 5 California and No. 12 South Dakota State.

 

CBS Sports.com’s Jerry Palm has the Hoosiers also on the 4 line but has them in Oklahoma City where they would face No. 13 Yale. The other game there is No. 5 Iowa State and No. 12 Little Rock.

 

A third Bracketologist, Shelby Mast of USA Today, has Indiana as a No. 3 seed and facing No. 14 Middle Tennessee State in Des Moines. The other game there is No. 6 Notre Dame versus a play-in winner.

 

So the Bracketologists are far from a consensus in this regard, too. Plus, after last year I’m not sure what to believe. Remember last season when Joe Lunardi had Indiana on the outside looking in in his final bracket before the show and then the Hoosiers not only turned out to be in but they were in as a No. 10 seed and weren’t sweating as much as Lunardi would have had them sweat.

 

It also didn’t hurt that Indiana was announced in one of the first brackets revealed on TV. It’s always nice when you’re on the bubble to not have to wait until that final region is revealed.
If Indiana is a 4 seed, let’s look at some of the other potential 13 seeds out there. Lunardi’s other 13’s are Stephen F. Austin, Stony Brook and Northern Iowa. Palm has Stony Brook, South Dakota State and Northern Iowa. Mast has Akron, Yale, Iona and South Dakota State.

 

So how has Indiana fared as a No. 4 seed in the past?

 

The most recent time was 2012 when the Hoosiers were a No. 4 seed in Portland, won two games and lost to Kentucky in the Sweet Sixteen in Atlanta.

 

Prior to that it was the 2001 NCAA Tournament, the first for then interim coach Mike Davis. IU lost to No. 13 seed Kent State in that one. It also wasn’t good in 1988 when the No. 4 seeded Hoosiers lost to Richmond. In 1984, IU won two games as the No. 4 seed.

 

The only time IU has been a No. 3 seed was a bad NCAA Tournament memory for the Hoosiers. IU lost in 1986 to Cleveland State.

 

So I still think it’s up in the air between a 3 and a 4 seed. It will depend on what the committee thinks about the Big Ten. Let’s just say I won’t be surprised if come Sunday the Hoosiers are a 3 seed in the NCAA Tournament.

 

But like always I want to know what you think.

 

Where do you think Indiana will be seeded on Sunday?

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[Naturalhoosier 15,424]

4...wouldn't be shocked if they slid to a **GULP** 5.

[Uspshoosier 45,623]

4...wouldn't be shocked if they slid to a **GULP** 5.

that worked out ok for us one year

[Alford Bailey 12,373]

I think we are a solid 4. Would be shocked if we slid to 5.

[AKHoosier 6,856]

If we are a 4, I sure wouldn't want to play Northern Iowa as a projected 13 seed.

 

I think we end up a 4 though, but holding out hope for a 3.

[biteoftheapple 4,115]

If we are a 4, I sure wouldn't want to play Northern Iowa as a projected 13 seed.

I think we end up a 4 though, but holding out hope for a 3.

I do not believe a 3 is possible. We were the last 3 before the loss.

[cjvz20 896]

Yeah I think 4 is where we will be hoping for a 3

[Naturalhoosier 15,424]

.

[Scooter D 928]

I think that they have slipped to a 5 seed...and here's why...almost every team in the AP top 25 has had a better start to the post-season than the Hoosiers...and let's not kid ourselves, these games matter to the committee,as they are going to give the teams that are playing at their peak in the post-season, the higher seeds. I realize that the Hoosiers were playing well coming into the BTT; however, losing to a ranked team in the semi's is different that losing to an unranked team in the quarters. It is all about perception.

[MadAboutIndiana 402]

I think that they have slipped to a 5 seed...and here's why...almost every team in the AP top 25 has had a better start to the post-season than the Hoosiers...and let's not kid ourselves, these games matter to the committee,as they are going to give the teams that are playing at their peak in the post-season, the higher seeds. I realize that the Hoosiers were playing well coming into the BTT; however, losing to a ranked team in the semi's is different that losing to an unranked team in the quarters. It is all about perception.

The committee does not take into account how a team is playing at the end of the year. They do not put much weight into conference tournament games. It's the body of work. Based on that, IU should be a 3 or 4

[OliviaPope40 6,514]

I see us being a 4 seed which is what ESPN has us listed as. 

[IndyHutch 1,718]

That was my first thought when I saw Northern Iowa on the 13 line. Wichita State didn't go so well from that league last year for IU and Northern Iowa would be no picnic.

If we are a 4, I sure wouldn't want to play Northern Iowa as a projected 13 seed.

 

I think we end up a 4 though, but holding out hope for a 3.

[IndyHutch 1,718]

I don't think that one game will mean as much as you do. I've sat on that mock NCAA Selection Committee exercise with the NCAA years ago and I have a feel for the process. If IU truly was considered a 3 going into it, I don't think they come out as a 5 based on one loss. Just my two cents.

I think that they have slipped to a 5 seed...and here's why...almost every team in the AP top 25 has had a better start to the post-season than the Hoosiers...and let's not kid ourselves, these games matter to the committee,as they are going to give the teams that are playing at their peak in the post-season, the higher seeds. I realize that the Hoosiers were playing well coming into the BTT; however, losing to a ranked team in the semi's is different that losing to an unranked team in the quarters. It is all about perception.

[IndyHutch 1,718]

It is a body of work. Indiana has won 20 of its last 24 games. I think that puts them at a 4 or higher.

 

The committee does not take into account how a team is playing at the end of the year. They do not put much weight into conference tournament games. It's the body of work. Based on that, IU should be a 3 or 4

[Old Friend 8,389]

Our RPI is 22 right now.  That ain't good for anyone hoping for a 3.  It can happen, but our SOS is 71 on Sagarin and 98 on RPI, which is also not favorable.

 

The reality is we DID play a weak schedule comparatively.   We may even be a 5 seed.   We beat Michigan, I do think we were a 3, and if we beat Purdue, we're a possible 2.  But that loss, coupled with a few other things knocked us back.  

[MikeRoberts 6,998]

It is a body of work. Indiana has won 20 of its last 24 games. I think that puts them at a 4 or higher.

its the body of work as you mentioned and the body includes our putrid 5-3 start

[BlueDevil 8,687]

IMO there is no way the big ten regular season champion will be a 5. Think they will be a solid 4.

[WayneFleekHoosier 48,312]

Not saying I'd bet my life on it, but I might wager a wife and kid that we end up a 4.

Sorry babe if you are reading this.

[MadAboutIndiana 402]

its the body of work as you mentioned and the body includes our putrid 5-3 start

Yes, but you'd have to think the committee will consider where those games were, who was healthy, and most importantly when they occurred.

There's not a chance we will be a 5. That's chicken little stuff.

RPI is such a poor metric. How it is still utilized is beyond me.

Either way, the sky is not falling.

[chitown hoosier 743]

Yes, but you'd have to think the committee will consider where those games were, who was healthy, and most importantly when they occurred.

There's not a chance we will be a 5. That's chicken little stuff.

RPI is such a poor metric. How it is still utilized is beyond me.

Either way, the sky is not falling.

I agree. Many were putting Indiana at the 3 before conference tournament. I think at worse Indiana drops to a 4. You don't win the big ten, and that at 2 games better, and get seeded worse than a 4 regardless of the schedule.