Bracketology and Team Resumes

[Uspshoosier 45,718]

USPS:  was any team that had no Q3 or Q4 losses left out of the field last year?
I’m starting to get anxious that even if we beat Nebraska they find a way to keep us out because of our NET ranking.....a ranking that IMO defies reality when you lose a Q1 game in the last game of the season and drop 9 whole spots.

Last year Teams that made it with a NET in the 50’s and above are Temple(56), Seton Hall(57)
Minnesota(61), Arizona St(63), St Johns(73)


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[Uspshoosier 45,718]

http://barttorvik.com/resume-compare.php?team=Indiana&year=2020


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[NashvilleHoosier 3,712]

24 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

http://barttorvik.com/resume-compare.php?team=Indiana&year=2020


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Do you know if this list is in no particular order? Or is it listed starting with the most similar of the similar resumes. Its interesting to see 2 teams from last year represented here. One who was selected and one who was not. 

[Uspshoosier 45,718]

Do you know if this list is in no particular order? Or is it listed starting with the most similar of the similar resumes. Its interesting to see 2 teams from last year represented here. One who was selected and one who was not. 

Not sure


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[RaceToTheTop 25,841]

39 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

http://barttorvik.com/resume-compare.php?team=Indiana&year=2020


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I do wish they had included win/loss record in that list.  Checking on the two that didn't make it, they were 19-13 and 20-13 post conference tournaments.

[IUc2016 7,121]

Going through IU's team sheet and realized they have 5 Quad 2a wins. 2 of those wins were against teams easily in the field (Iowa and Penn State) and 2 were against high major opponents on a neutral floor who did well in their respective conferences. Although IU is 4-10 in Qaud 1, 4 of their Quad 2 wins are more impressive than some of the other bubble teams Quad 1 wins. 

[RaceToTheTop 25,841]

bracketmatrix now has updated 115 brackets, up from 89 this morning.  IU is listed in 111 of them and is the third #10 seed.  6 teams are below IU (Texas Tech, Xavier, Wichita St, Stanford, Richmond, Cincinnati).  

One positive thing is that there are very few reasonable options after those teams in.  UCLA is first team out and appears in 43% of the brackets, Texas appears in 35%, and NC State appears in 21%.  No other team appears in more than 10% of the brackets.

[RaceToTheTop 25,841]

Going through IU's team sheet and realized they have 5 Quad 2a wins. 2 of those wins were against teams easily in the field (Iowa and Penn State) and 2 were against high major opponents on a neutral floor who did well in their respective conferences. Although IU is 4-10 in Qaud 1, 4 of their Quad 2 wins are more impressive than some of the other bubble teams Quad 1 wins. 

The whole randomness (IMO) of what NET uses to do to determine what constitutes a Quad 1 win makes the term rather meaningless.  I think it's like 1-30 at home, 1-50 on neutral, and 1-75 on the road.  So Minnesota on a neutral court is a quad 1, UCLA at UCLA is not.....yet UCLA is a bubble team and Minnesota won't even be in the NIT. 

 

[IUc2016 7,121]

1 minute ago, brumdog45 said:

The whole randomness (IMO) of what NET uses to do to determine what constitutes a Quad 1 win makes the term rather meaningless.  I think it's like 1-30 at home, 1-50 on neutral, and 1-70 on the road.  So Minnesota on a neutral court is a quad 1, UCLA at UCLA is not.....yet UCLA is a bubble team and Minnesota won't even be in the NIT.

Yeah I know that is kinda my point. Like at first glance you see that IU is 9-12 in the top two quads that doesn't seem too great. But when you look at their team sheet it is impressive in comparison to say Florida who is 28th in the NET and is also 9-12 in the top two quads. 

[Uspshoosier 45,718]

The whole randomness (IMO) of what NET uses to do to determine what constitutes a Quad 1 win makes the term rather meaningless.  I think it's like 1-30 at home, 1-50 on neutral, and 1-75 on the road.  So Minnesota on a neutral court is a quad 1, UCLA at UCLA is not.....yet UCLA is a bubble team and Minnesota won't even be in the NIT.  

Not random just weighting winning games away from home. Committee has said in the past not all Games within the same Quad are equal. Basically the Quads group the wins together and then it’s the committee’s job to sort them out. Even though winning a road game at the 75 team is a Quad 1 game is the same as winning a game at home against a top 10 team the home win is going to be viewed as the better win even though they are both Q1 games. Breaking the Q1 and Q2 into sub groups sorts them even further. Committee has used a Quad system forever but before the Net they never referred to them as Quads. Rpi system was basically Q1-1-50
Q2-51-100, Q3-101-150, Q4-151+. No extra bump for winning or losing games on the road or neutral.


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[IUc2016 7,121]

At this point Dayton is a projected number 1 seed. They have 1 win against a bracketville projected tournament team (St. Mary's). IU has 5, not counting South Dakota State who won their league. 

Not saying IU is better than Dayton obviously, just comparing. 

Edit: SDSU lost in their Conference tournament 

[Uspshoosier 45,718]

At this point Dayton is a projected number 1 seed. They have 1 win against a bracketville projected tournament team (St. Mary's). IU has 5, not counting South Dakota State who won their league. 
Not saying IU is better than Dayton obviously, just comparing. 

South Dakota St lost in their conference tourney a couple days ago. Got upset as the 2 seed to Fort Wayne. I was hoping they could win their conference tourney. One to watch is La Tech. They are the 3 seed for conference USA but have they best odds to win the auto bid


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[IUc2016 7,121]

2 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

South Dakota St lost in their conference tourney a couple days ago. Got upset as the 2 seed to Fort Wayne. I was hoping they could win their conference tourney. One to watch is La Tech. They are the 3 seed for conference USA but have they best odds to win the auto bid


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Yeah I just saw that too after I posted it. Ill fix it

[Deserthoozier 1,006]

NET of 60 makes me super nervous!  I know it is supposed to be a neutral general compare of teams similarly situated - but in reality seems to be a bit of a trashy measure that adds cloudiness to the picture to enable the committee to cut back room deals to do whatever they want.  There seems to be little continuity with great discrepancies among teams’ resumes within the same decile. Hope I’m wrong, but I think there will be a huge amount of pressure NOT to let 9 or 10 B1G teams in. That will hit us hard with 60 NET!

[NashvilleHoosier 3,712]

16 minutes ago, brumdog45 said:

bracketmatrix now has updated 115 brackets, up from 89 this morning.  IU is listed in 111 of them and is the third #10 seed.  6 teams are below IU (Texas Tech, Xavier, Wichita St, Stanford, Richmond, Cincinnati).  

One positive thing is that there are very few reasonable options after those teams in.  UCLA is first team out and appears in 43% of the brackets, Texas appears in 35%, and NC State appears in 21%.  No other team appears in more than 10% of the brackets.

I really hate looking at the big picture right now. Let's say a couple bids are stolen this week. It's not a definite to say whoever steals those bids knocks us down, but I assume it will. So that would leave maybe 4 teams below us per bracket matrix. There is always a team or two who gets in that were not projected to according to bracket matrix. In this case that would come from the UCLA/Texas/NC State crowd. That may knock it down to 3 teams below us. We probably have an opportunity to have the worst loss of who is left toward the bottom. Losing to Nebraska would move some other teams ahead of us and all of a sudden we are right at the cut line or below, again, according to bracket matrix. Beating Nebraska won't improve our position. Now, all of this assumes others above us don't collapse in some way, and those below us do what they need to do, none of which is certain. But, I'm not feeling safe at all. Beat Nebraska and I still won't feel safe. Beat Penn State and I will. 

[HoosierFan1994 4,746]

If IU beats Nebraska and then Penn State I think they get a 9 seed. Bracket Matrix has Arizona State, Oklahoma, Rutgers, and USC ahead of IU. Each of those teams have tough matchups and could lose their first conference tournament game. If IU beats Nebraska but loses to to Penn State they stay a 10 seed. If they lose to Nebraska it will be close. I say 11 seed play in game. 

[HoosierFan1994 4,746]

9 minutes ago, NashvilleHoosier said:

I really hate looking at the big picture right now. Let's say a couple bids are stolen this week. It's not a definite to say whoever steals those bids knocks us down, but I assume it will. So that would leave maybe 4 teams below us per bracket matrix. There is always a team or two who gets in that were not projected to according to bracket matrix. In this case that would come from the UCLA/Texas/NC State crowd. That may knock it down to 3 teams below us. We probably have an opportunity to have the worst loss of who is left toward the bottom. Losing to Nebraska would move some other teams ahead of us and all of a sudden we are right at the cut line or below, again, according to bracket matrix. Beating Nebraska won't improve our position. Now, all of this assumes others above us don't collapse in some way, and those below us do what they need to do, none of which is certain. But, I'm not feeling safe at all. Beat Nebraska and I still won't feel safe. Beat Penn State and I will. 

I still feel if they beat Nebraska that they are in. Not that it's a big win or anything, I just don't see many teams passing them. A loss should worry everyone though. 

[NashvilleHoosier 3,712]

5 minutes ago, HoosierFan1994 said:

I still feel if they beat Nebraska that they are in. Not that it's a big win or anything, I just don't see many teams passing them. A loss should worry everyone though. 

Ultimately, I agree. I just still won't feel safe b/c I don't think it improves our position, and b/c of all the other things that could happen to negatively impact our position. Our position is already in the range of teams that could get left out. 

[BGVille Hoosierfan 2,909]

I still feel if they beat Nebraska that they are in. Not that it's a big win or anything, I just don't see many teams passing them. A loss should worry everyone though. 

I agree. Another win, albeit Nebraska, will still get us to 20 wins overall and will add another neutral court win. I would bet big money they won’t leave a 20-13 Indiana (with our resume and ZERO bad losses) out of the field for a Wichita State or NC State for example. Indiana is too valuable to leave out and you know wherever they are playing, tickets will be sold and seats will be filled.


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[RaceToTheTop 25,841]

52 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

Not random just weighting winning games away from home. Committee has said in the past not all Games within the same Quad are equal. Basically the Quads group the wins together and then it’s the committee’s job to sort them out. Even though winning a road game at the 75 team is a Quad 1 game is the same as winning a game at home against a top 10 team the home win is going to be viewed as the better win even though they are both Q1 games. Breaking the Q1 and Q2 into sub groups sorts them even further. Committee has used a Quad system forever but before the Net they never referred to them as Quads. Rpi system was basically Q1-1-50
Q2-51-100, Q3-101-150, Q4-151+. No extra bump for winning or losing games on the road or neutral.


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The randomness I am referring to comes from how horribly rating teams are on the NET....which creates a double edged sword since it then a team rated incorrectly rewards/punishes their opponents as well.

Simply put, I'm not going to be convinced that Minnesota should be at 42 on the NET, Washington at 55, and Indiana at 60.