Bracketology and Team Resumes

[LIHoosier 27,682]

Who would you suggest we schedule? We already have a 20 game conference meat grinder and typically 4-5 really solid non conference games

To piggyback, most of the mid majors in that potential quad 3 area want deals where they get either a true home game or neutral event; that might be why we played at the Fieldhouse vs Miami OH. For most major teams, you get one year home only games vs the bottom 6-7 conferences and hope the teams you play(and hopefully beat, Hi Iowa) aren't completely dreadful.

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[Josh 13,216]

1 hour ago, IU_FanClub said:

Who would you suggest we schedule? We already have a 20 game conference meat grinder and typically 4-5 really solid non conference games

We played 5 teams this season with a net under 300.  Let's move those up a hundred spots and reap the benefits

[RaceToTheTop 30,627]

1 hour ago, Josh said:

We played 5 teams this season with a net under 300.  Let's move those up a hundred spots and reap the benefits

Only two of those five teams had a KenPom rating above 300 last year.  The average KenPom ratings of our non-conference opponents we played this year was 153.7 last season.  This season they dropped to 170.  You can’t control that drop.  I believe 8 of our 11 opponents saw their rankings drop.

Even so, our SOS is not an issue in seeding, especially when it yielded three Q1 and one Q2 game.

[IU_FanClub 1,857]

2 hours ago, Josh said:

We played 5 teams this season with a net under 300.  Let's move those up a hundred spots and reap the benefits

Not sure how you can guarantee these teams end up good. We have the 13th overall SOS

[RaceToTheTop 30,627]

Here is the list of teams I currently have with positive WAR values.

		W	L	WAR
1	Alabama	22	4	7.89
2	Purdue	23	3	7.7
3	Kansas	20	5	7.44
4	UCLA	21	4	5.84
5	Baylor	20	6	5.84
6	Houston	23	2	5.76
7	Texas	20	6	5.74
8	Arizona	22	4	5.65
9	Marquette	21	6	5.15
10	Virginia	20	4	4.95
11	Gonzaga	20	5	4.82
12	San Diego St	20	5	4.81
13	Kansas St	19	6	4.56
14	Xavier	19	7	4.21
15	MIami (F)	21	5	4.15
16	U Conn	19	7	3.96
17	Tennessee	20	6	3.91
18	St. Mary's	20	6	3.7
19	Iowa St	17	8	3.5
20	FAU	20	2	3.44
21	Indiana	18	8	3.24
22	Nevada	19	6	3.21
23	Northwestern	19	7	3.12
24	Missouri	19	7	3.08
25	Michigan St	16	9	3.03
26	Providence	19	7	2.74
27	Creighton	17	9	2.61
28	Boise St	19	6	2.51
29	Auburn	18	8	2.43
30	Memphis	19	6	2.42
31	TCU	17	9	2.31
32	Charleston	23	3	2.12
33	Illinois	17	8	2.04
34	Maryland	17	8	2.03
35	Oklahoma St	16	9	1.99
36	Duke	18	8	1.93
37	NC State	20	7	1.82
38	USC	17	8	1.78
39	Utah St	19	7	1.76
40	North Texas	19	5	1.66
41	Texas A&M	19	7	1.54
42	Iowa	16	9	1.51
43	Kentucky	17	9	1.37
44	Wisconsin	15	10	1.14
45	Pittsburgh	19	7	1.13
46	Arkansas	17	9	1.08
47	West Virginia	15	11	1.06
48	Arizona St	18	8	1.05
49	Mississippi St	17	9	0.96
50	So Miss	19	4	0.91
51	Oral Roberts	18	4	0.7
52	New Mexico	18	7	0.55
53	Kent St	19	5	0.47
54	Clemson	19	7	0.33
55	Rutgers	16	10	0.32
56	North Carolina	15	10	0.31
57	Oregon	15	12	0.02

[str8baller 7,325]

3 hours ago, RaceToTheTop said:

Only two of those five teams had a KenPom rating above 300 last year.  The average KenPom ratings of our non-conference opponents we played this year was 153.7 last season.  This season they dropped to 170.  You can’t control that drop.  I believe 8 of our 11 opponents saw their rankings drop.

Even so, our SOS is not an issue in seeding, especially when it yielded three Q1 and one Q2 game.

I don’t think it’s luck. Looking back five or six years and almost every year we are between 200 and 300 ooc sos. That is typically the worst of any major team in the top 25. 
 

We’re actively scheduling these teams when other teams are not. 

[RaceToTheTop 30,627]

8 minutes ago, str8baller said:

I don’t think it’s luck. Looking back five or six years and almost every year we are between 200 and 300 ooc sos. That is typically the worst of any major team in the top 25. 
 

We’re actively scheduling these teams when other teams are not. 

Our NET non-conference SOS this year is 106.  If you want to play the SOS game in the NCAA, you are better off having a highly rated NET non-conference SOS than POM non-conference SOS.  USPS can speak more to this, but I don't even think POM non-conference SOS shows up on the team sheet.  The two I think do are NET and RPI SOS (our RPI non-conference SOS is 126 this year).  I think the only POM item on the NCAA team sheet is the overall team POM rank, which right now is 19.  And when you throw in that IU's overall NET SOS is 13, I'm not sure how you can downplay the schedule.  

For the record, IU's NET non-conference SOS in 2022 was 198 and in 2021 it was 74.

[Uspshoosier 53,847]

23 minutes ago, RaceToTheTop said:

Our NET non-conference SOS this year is 106.  If you want to play the SOS game in the NCAA, you are better off having a highly rated NET non-conference SOS than POM non-conference SOS.  USPS can speak more to this, but I don't even think POM non-conference SOS shows up on the team sheet.  The two I think do are NET and RPI SOS (our RPI non-conference SOS is 126 this year).  I think the only POM item on the NCAA team sheet is the overall team POM rank, which right now is 19.  And when you throw in that IU's overall NET SOS is 13, I'm not sure how you can downplay the schedule.  

For the record, IU's NET non-conference SOS in 2022 was 198 and in 2021 it was 74.

Not on team sheets but could be something a committee member uses on his own.   I personally never look at his sos metric.  

[RaceToTheTop 30,627]

1 hour ago, Uspshoosier said:

Not on team sheets but could be something a committee member uses on his own.   I personally never look at his sos metric.  

At the point of it becoming a metric that a committee member uses on his own but not being on a team sheet that offers soooooo many numbers, I would say it's not a concern.

Personally, I don't see how a non-conference schedule that included Kansas, Arizona, and Xavier all away from home could have been ranked at 285.

[Uspshoosier 53,847]

 

[Uspshoosier 53,847]

I am going to do a deep dive into my top 16 tonight.   Not a good slate tonight so it will give me a chance to do that.      I feel IU is probably the last 4 seed and no worse then 5 seed so even if IU isn’t in the top 16 tomorrow my guess is they will still mention them as a team considered.    Going to be close 

[IUHoosierJoe 2,117]

11 hours ago, RaceToTheTop said:

At the point of it becoming a metric that a committee member uses on his own but not being on a team sheet that offers soooooo many numbers, I would say it's not a concern.

Personally, I don't see how a non-conference schedule that included Kansas, Arizona, and Xavier all away from home could have been ranked at 285.

It's because their schedule strength is computed by taking a simple average of the opponents' ratings, and Elon, Jackson State, and Bethune-Cookman have pretty terrible ratings.  And then we're getting burned by teams like Miami (OH) and Morehead State who aren't as good this year as they usually are.

[southsidehoosier 5,149]

Teamcast for Indiana

Played with Torvick's sim until we won the B1G tourney (didn't mess with his regular season projections) and he has us as a third #3 seed

[Uspshoosier 53,847]

1 hour ago, IUHoosierJoe said:

It's because their schedule strength is computed by taking a simple average of the opponents' ratings, and Elon, Jackson State, and Bethune-Cookman have pretty terrible ratings.  And then we're getting burned by teams like Miami (OH) and Morehead State who aren't as good this year as they usually are.

Morehead St is leading the OVC by 2 games just a heads up.    In IU’s buy games they ended up playing to conference leaders as of today (Kennesaw St, Morehead St).  As long as the sos that the committee uses on team sheets is good you won’t see a coach change they way they schedule.    Despite playing those 300+ teams IU is 14th in Sos and 102 non conference.  Teams run into problems when their non con is in the upper 200s.   Teams on the bubble would be sweating if their non con is above 270.   Coaches will take the path of less resistance more times then not.  Unless you are named Self, Izzo or any other coach that doesn’t have to worry about job security.    I’m not saying it’s right or wrong but in my opinion as long as IU has a top 15 overall sos and non con around 100 you won’t see a big change in scheduling when it comes to those bottom teams 

[IUHoosierJoe 2,117]

30 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

Morehead St is leading the OVC by 2 games just a heads up.    In IU’s buy games they ended up playing to conference leaders as of today (Kennesaw St, Morehead St).  As long as the sos that the committee uses on team sheets is good you won’t see a coach change they way they schedule.    Despite playing those 300+ teams IU is 14th in Sos and 102 non conference.  Teams run into problems when their non con is in the upper 200s.   Teams on the bubble would be sweating if their non con is above 270.   Coaches will take the path of less resistance more times then not.  Unless you are named Self, Izzo or any other coach that doesn’t have to worry about job security.    I’m not saying it’s right or wrong but in my opinion as long as IU has a top 15 overall sos and non con around 100 you won’t see a big change in scheduling when it comes to those bottom teams 

Yes, not arguing with any of that, just was providing additional info.  Morehead State is playing better than they were earlier in the year, granted.  But overall, they are not ranked as high as they usually are.  The OVC’s ranking as a whole is lower, probably a lot of that has to do with Belmont leaving.

[Hovadipo 61,307]

3 minutes ago, IUHoosierJoe said:

Yes, not arguing with any of that, just was providing additional info.  Morehead State is playing better than they were earlier in the year, granted.  But overall, they are not ranked as high as they usually are.  The OVC’s ranking as a whole is lower, probably a lot of that has to do with Belmont leaving.

Murray and Belmont going to the Mo Valley wrecked that conference. It's horrendous.

[Loaded Chicken Sandwich 9,257]

13 minutes ago, Hovadipo said:

Murray and Belmont going to the Mo Valley wrecked that conference. It's horrendous.

CONFERENCE REALIGNMENT HURT COLLEGE BASKETBALL.

 

To put it simply. 

[Hoosierfan1901 8,249]

1 hour ago, Hovadipo said:

Murray and Belmont going to the Mo Valley wrecked that conference. It's horrendous.

Hopefully USI will eventually bring some balanced to the conference soon 

[NashvilleHoosier 3,898]

4 hours ago, southsidehoosier said:

Teamcast for Indiana

Played with Torvick's sim until we won the B1G tourney (didn't mess with his regular season projections) and he has us as a third #3 seed

This was a fun exercise. Since I always expect the worst, I projected us to lose out, and lose the first game of the BTT and it would still project us as the top 8 seed. Which is pretty unreal that we are in that position. But let's not try to find out if that's true.

[Uspshoosier 53,847]

Tomorrow we get a snap shot of where committee is mid February with their top 16.   Things I’m interested in finding out tomorrow 

1.  Where on the 1 line will Houston end up

2.  Where will UCLA end up.   Only 1 solid win against a team solidly in the field (@Maryland)

3.   Will 5 Big 12 teams make the top 16 

4.   Does IU sneak in as one of the last 4 seeds(it’s going to be close)

 

Going to look at it again before bed and post my top 16.