Bracketology and Team Resumes

[BannerVille 196]

On 2/22/2023 at 4:53 PM, Uspshoosier said:

2-8 (2020)

3-7 (2021)

3-8 (2022)

4-7 as of now (2023)

12-29 overall 

This made me curious how the top 3 finishers did over those years:

2022
IL:  7-3
WI:  8-2
PU:  5-5

2021
MI:  5-2 * so many canceled games
IL:  8-2
IA:  6-4

2020
WI:  5-5
MD:  5-5
MS:  6-4

Suffice to say we need to get better on the road to compete for the title.

[RaceToTheTop 25,782]

1 hour ago, Uspshoosier said:

 

In terms of it being 'unavoidable, I would say that's not completely true.  Schedules can at least be balanced based on previous year's record -- i.e., teams could have double plays against teams that finished 1, 4, 5, 8, 9, 12, and 13 as opposed to a random selection that could result in playing the teams that finished all at the top.

While it wouldn't eliminate the unbalance, it would at least attempt to control it.

[hoopsta007 413]

1 hour ago, RaceToTheTop said:

In terms of it being 'unavoidable, I would say that's not completely true.  Schedules can at least be balanced based on previous year's record -- i.e., teams could have double plays against teams that finished 1, 4, 5, 8, 9, 12, and 13 as opposed to a random selection that could result in playing the teams that finished all at the top.

While it wouldn't eliminate the unbalance, it would at least attempt to control it.

Adding a subtle layer of tanking and strategy for future scheduling……I like it

[RaceToTheTop 25,782]

23 minutes ago, hoopsta007 said:

Adding a subtle layer of tanking and strategy for future scheduling……I like it

Not really, because it wouldn't do any good for a team to tank.  Finishing low in the conference doesn't give you an easier schedule the next year.  Basically it means that a team finishing in spots 1, 4, 5, 8, 9, 12 or 13 would face double plays against 2, 3, 6, 7, 10, 11 and 14.    That's as even of groupings as you can make and there isn't a real preference for one or the other.

What it would do away with is protected home-and-aways -- i.e., no automatic double plays of IU/Purdue, Michigan/Michigan State, Illinois/Northwestern, etc.  A lot of people wouldn't want that, but I would be fine with it. Protected home-and-aways automatically produce imbalance based on your protected opponent.

[hoopsta007 413]

4 minutes ago, RaceToTheTop said:

Not really, because it wouldn't do any good for a team to tank.  Finishing low in the conference doesn't give you an easier schedule the next year.  Basically it means that a team finishing in spots 1, 4, 5, 8, 9, 12 or 13 would face double plays against 2, 3, 6, 7, 10, 11 and 14.    That's as even of groupings as you can make and there isn't a real preference for one or the other.

What it would do away with is protected home-and-aways -- i.e., no automatic double plays of IU/Purdue, Michigan/Michigan State, Illinois/Northwestern, etc.  A lot of people wouldn't want that, but I would be fine with it. Protected home-and-aways automatically produce imbalance based on your protected opponent.

Ahh. Gotcha.  I like that idea too but see the rivalry issue as being a non starter for many. I do remember one year that they eliminated protected rivalries and I think we played Purdue in Indy OOC

Edited February 24, 2023 by hoopsta007

[lillurk 3,756]

The other option to balance the schedules would be to somehow flex the last 3 or 4 games. It would be difficult but not impossible, so it’ll never happen. But in theory you’d schedule the first 16, everyone gets 8 home and 8 road. You always play your protected rival(s) 2x. And then the last four are scheduled based on an attempt to balance the collective schedule strength.

[Rico 3,041]

4 minutes ago, lillurk said:

The other option to balance the schedules would be to somehow flex the last 3 or 4 games. It would be difficult but not impossible, so it’ll never happen. But in theory you’d schedule the first 16, everyone gets 8 home and 8 road. You always play your protected rival(s) 2x. And then the last four are scheduled based on an attempt to balance the collective schedule strength.

[Hovadipo 56,191]

8 minutes ago, lillurk said:

The other option to balance the schedules would be to somehow flex the last 3 or 4 games. It would be difficult but not impossible, so it’ll never happen. But in theory you’d schedule the first 16, everyone gets 8 home and 8 road. You always play your protected rival(s) 2x. And then the last four are scheduled based on an attempt to balance the collective schedule strength.

If you gave programs plenty of time to sort out the logistics, this idea would be awesome. Maybe you get your flex games after the halfway point of conference season or something. I doubt it would ever happen, but it's a neat idea.

[Uspshoosier 45,680]

Run down of conference races for those interested with Champ Week coming 

A10-

VCU 12-3 with 3 to play.   Dayton 11-4  with 3 to play.   No at-large teams expected 

ASUN-

Kennasaw St- 14-3 and Liberty-14-3.   If they tie Kennesaw gets the 1 seed in conference tourney.  That’s big because they would get the home game 

ACC- 

Virginia, Pitt and Miami 14-4.  
Miami plays Pitt in last game.  

America East 

Vermont 12-2 has a 2 game lead on Umass-Lowell.   Shocker Vermont clinched lol 

American

Houston 14-1 has a 3 game lead over Memphis.    Those 2 are the only 2 that have a shot at an at large 

B1G

Purdue-13-4 has 2 game lead on Northwestern.  

Big 12-

Kansas and Texas 11-4 with 3 to play and they play each other last game of the year.  Kansas St and Baylor at 2 games back 

Big East 

Marquette is 14-3 with a 2 game lead of Xavier, Providence and Creighton    Marquette finishes with DePaul, Butler and St John’s.     Congrats to Marquette on an outright championship   Lol 

Big Sky 

Eastern Washington 16-0 clinches regular season    Montana St is 3 games back and probably biggest threat in the conference tourney for Eastern 

Big South 

UNC Asheville 15-2 clinched   Longwood is 3 games back     Watch out for a Radford in the conference tourney 

Big West 

UC Irvine 13-4 has a half game lead on UC Riverside    This is usually the 1 am game late on championship week that keeps me up to 3 am      Watch out for UCSB.   Gauchos are coached by a former Hoosier manager 

Conference USA

Might not be the conference USA of old but the it’s been a conference that has had some entertaining games despite not being as strong as conference as it use to be     FAU is 15-2 and  led by a former Hoosier manager and have a 2 game lead over North Texas      FAU should be a lock for the tourney and I would love to see North Texas in as well.   Since IU is no where near the cut line I hope there are multiple bid stealers during champ week 

CAA

Hofstra and Charleston both 15-2 with 1 to play      Charleston has a shot at an at large    
 

Horizon 

Youngstown St and Cleveland St tied at 14-5 with Milwaukee and N Kentucky 1 game back      If Youngstown St gets in watch out for Dwayne Cohill.   He gets over shadowed by Davis from Detroit because of the scoring record but Cohill is a baller 

Ivy

Princeton, Yale and Penn all tied at 8-4    Who will join these 3 in Ivy tourney? Top 4 play in the conference tourney   My guess is Cornell 

MAAC 

Iona 13-5 with Siena and Rider 2 games back    

MAC 

Toledo 13-2 with Kent st 1 game back.   Kent St probably the best team in the league but a bunch of teams not far behind including Ball St.    should be a fun tourney to watch 

MEAC 

 Howard 9-2 with Norfolk 1 game back.   Don’t see any other team challenging these 2 

Missouri Valley 

Drake and Bradley tied 15-4 and play each other Sunday for the outright title.    Sycamores and 3 other teams 2 games back.    Arch Madness is going to be awesome.   Go Trees 

MWC

San Diego St is 13-2 with Boise 1 game back.   They play each other next Tuesday. MWC is always fun to watch and they have a legit shot at 4 teams making it although New Mexico is fading fast 

NEC 

Merrimack is 11-4 with Stonehill 1.5 games back.   Merrimack clinched but even if they win the tourney they are still in transition period and can’t play in the NCAA tourney 

Ohio Valley 

Morehead is 13-4 with with 4 teams 3 games back including Parker Stewart and UT Martin.   OVC took a hit when Belmont and Murray left 

PAC 12  

UCLA is 15-2 with Zona 2 games back.   Pac 12 could be a 2 bid league.   I think USC ends up getting in but they are on the bubble 

Patriot 

Colgate is 16-1 with Navy and Lehigh 5 games back.    Colgate clearly the best team in conference.  They played Wisky tough last year in the tourney 

Sec 

Bama is 14-1 with A&M 1 game back.  They play each other last game of the year It looks like A&M is going to get in the tourney this year so we won’t have to see Buzz write the NCAA a 50 page thesis on why his team should get in.    Schedule better in the Non conference Buzz it’s not that hard 

SWAC

Alcorn is 12-2 with Grambling 1 game back.    Looking forward to watching whoever comes out of this conference in Dayton.   

Southern 

Samford is 15-2 with Furman and UNCG 1 game back.    Always one of the best small tourneys during champ week 

Southland 

Texas A&M-CC and Northwestern St tied at 12-4   Northwestern St won at TCU  but  TCU was down 2 starters   Still impressive win   
 

Summit

Oral Robert’s is 17-0 with SDST 4 games back     Abmas is a stud and they have other players from their sweet 16 run     Dangerous team 

Sun Belt 

Marshall and Southern Miss are tied at 13-4      Big schools are not the only teams that switch conferences     Marshall’s move from conference USA seems to have paid off     I would watch out for Louisiana in the conference tourney 

WAC

Utah Valley is 12-3 with Southern Utah and Sam Houston st 1 game back.  New Mexico st usually runs this league but that won’t be the case this year.   
 

WCC

St Marys is 14-1 with Zags 1 game back.   Couldn’t draw it up better because they play each other Saturday at the Kennel.  Should be a good one.  

 

[Uspshoosier 45,680]

7 minutes ago, Hovadipo said:

If you gave programs plenty of time to sort out the logistics, this idea would be awesome. Maybe you get your flex games after the halfway point of conference season or something. I doubt it would ever happen, but it's a neat idea.

Conference USA did this a couple years ago.  Not sure if they still do it.  

[Uspshoosier 45,680]

Just now, Uspshoosier said:

Conference USA did this a couple years ago.  Not sure if they still do it.  

https://www.espn.com.au/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/23644419/conference-usa-basketball-schedule-altered-match-best-teams-late

[Uspshoosier 45,680]

https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/the-bold-new-college-basketball-flex-scheduling-model-that-would-bring-big-nonconference-games-into-february/
this would be beneficial for smaller conferences to get quality games.  I hope this happens some day but some coaches are still pushing back on it 

[lillurk 3,756]

32 minutes ago, Hovadipo said:

If you gave programs plenty of time to sort out the logistics, this idea would be awesome. Maybe you get your flex games after the halfway point of conference season or something. I doubt it would ever happen, but it's a neat idea.

Thank you. Kevin Warren’s successor should bang my line

[Certified Sunshine Pumper 9,182]

13 minutes ago, lillurk said:

The other option to balance the schedules would be to somehow flex the last 3 or 4 games. It would be difficult but not impossible, so it’ll never happen. But in theory you’d schedule the first 16, everyone gets 8 home and 8 road. You always play your protected rival(s) 2x. And then the last four are scheduled based on an attempt to balance the collective schedule strength.

I'm down to try anything, other than what we have now...

I had an idea of a December B1GT that would span two weekends, take the place of 4 conference games, then you play 14 teams 1x, plus one protected rivalry, 2x....to make up the 20 game schedule. 

[Loaded Chicken Sandwich 8,674]

So at what point does WVU completely fall out of the tourney. 16-12(5-10). 

[Uspshoosier 45,680]

7 minutes ago, Loaded Chicken Sandwich said:

So at what point does WVU completely fall out of the tourney. 16-12(5-10). 

The play in the Big 12 the best conference.  You can’t totally rule them out because their next 3 games are @kansas @Iowa st and home against Kansas st.  If they somehow win those they would be 19-12 (8-10) in the best conference.    Hard to rule them out because they just get so many opportunities for high quality wins.   They better win some more though because I have them in my last 4 in and trending out 

[RaceToTheTop 25,782]

2 hours ago, Uspshoosier said:

The play in the Big 12 the best conference.  You can’t totally rule them out because their next 3 games are @kansas @Iowa st and home against Kansas st.  If they somehow win those they would be 19-12 (8-10) in the best conference.    Hard to rule them out because they just get so many opportunities for high quality wins.   They better win some more though because I have them in my last 4 in and trending out 

They are currently my last team in.  Entering those last three games, would probably think they would need to win two of the three remaining games to be on the right side of the bubble.  Conference record non-withstanding, though, I personally think they are a better team that Wisconsin, Iowa, and Penn State.  Iowa isn't even really on the bubble, Wisky and Penn State are.

Edit:  Also think they are better than Rutgers.  West Virginia is 16-12 with the #6 Pom schedule;  Rutgers is just a game better with the #55 schedule.

[str8baller 5,253]

22 hours ago, RaceToTheTop said:

In terms of it being 'unavoidable, I would say that's not completely true.  Schedules can at least be balanced based on previous year's record -- i.e., teams could have double plays against teams that finished 1, 4, 5, 8, 9, 12, and 13 as opposed to a random selection that could result in playing the teams that finished all at the top.

While it wouldn't eliminate the unbalance, it would at least attempt to control it.

It really doesn’t matter unless you really value conf titles.   
 

The strong sos has helped our computer numbers and helped offset a bad ooc schedule. 

[Uspshoosier 45,680]

7 minutes ago, str8baller said:

It really doesn’t matter unless you really value conf titles.   
 

The strong sos has helped our computer numbers and helped offset a bad ooc schedule. 

I know people would like a stronger ooc schedule but IU’s wasn’t as bad as people make it out to be.    It’s around 103out of 363.   That’s actually a respectable ooc 

[DoctorP 1,070]

7 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

I know people would like a stronger ooc schedule but IU’s wasn’t as bad as people make it out to be.    It’s around 103out of 363.   That’s actually a respectable ooc 

I’m seeing 284th on Kenpom