Bracketology and Team Resumes

[HoosierFan1994 4,722]

Bracket experts...Is IU pretty much locked in as a 4 seed? Let's say they win the B1G Tournament. Could that bump them to a 3 seed? 

[Uspshoosier 45,204]

Heading into the post season here is where IU stands 

NET-29

21-10

Q1a- 4-7

wins

@5, 5,@22, @33

Losses

@7, N-11, @26, @31, @37, @38, @40

Q1b-1-1

Wins

@54

Losses

@56

Q2a- 5-2

wins 

31, 33, 40, 49, 54

losses

37, 38

Q2b- 1-0

wins 

63

Q3 and Q4

10-0    Clean sheet

Sos-12

non con sos- 107

predictive metrics 

KenPom-30

SAG- 17

BPI-19

results based

Sor-17

kpi-17

That is an impressive resume for a team that lost its starting pg for the whole conference season.   

For a program that hasn’t had much success in the last 5 years that is a quality team sheet    IU might not be the best team in country but they had one heck of a regular season.   the double digit losses probably prevented IU from being top 10 most of the metrics    
 

Solid 4 seed with the chance of moving up to the 3 line and depending on what others do around them a floor of being a 5 seed 

It’s  been refreshing to update this thread without having IU near the bubble    

 

[Uspshoosier 45,204]

5 minutes ago, HoosierFan1994 said:

Bracket experts...Is IU pretty much locked in as a 4 seed? Let's say they win the B1G Tournament. Could that bump them to a 3 seed? 

Definitely if they win they will be a 3 seed  if they played Maryland, Illinois and Purdue that’s 3 more  Q1 wins with one of those being Q1A.    They were 13th according to the committee before all of that.  

[Loaded Chicken Sandwich 8,623]

Here is who I feel should be the Top 8....

1. Kansas

2. Alabama

3. Houston

4. UCLA

5. Purdue

6. Texas

7. Arizona

8. Marquette

Am I far off here?

[Uspshoosier 45,204]

41 minutes ago, Loaded Chicken Sandwich said:

Here is who I feel should be the Top 8....

1. Kansas

2. Alabama

3. Houston

4. UCLA

5. Purdue

6. Texas

7. Arizona

8. Marquette

Am I far off here?

Not far off from me.     Bama still is who I would have as 1 overall (I would have Kansas 1 but I’m predicting what committee will do).    I got Purdue last 1 seed and UCLA first 2.   I have Zona a 3 seed and Baylor a 2 seed 

[Uspshoosier 45,204]

Just now, Uspshoosier said:

Not far off from me.     Bama still is who I would have as 1 overall (I would have Kansas 1 but I’m predicting what committee will do).    I got Purdue last 1 seed and UCLA first 2.   I have Zona a 3 seed and Baylor a 2 seed 

Kansas St could be on the 2 line as well.  Close between Marquette and them 

[HoosierHoopster 6,848]

AP dropped us from 15 to 19 for the Iowa loss. 

But to extent being ranked matters (I admit, I LIKE being ranked, helps in recruiting, helps me emotionally :) ), finishing the season at 19, not to mention 2nd in B1G, is where a bunch here predicted at the start of the season we should be -- top 15-20 ranked, fighting for the conference title. Successful season for sure.

[IUHoosierJoe 1,110]

4 hours ago, Loaded Chicken Sandwich said:

Here is who I feel should be the Top 8....

1. Kansas

2. Alabama

3. Houston

4. UCLA

5. Purdue

6. Texas

7. Arizona

8. Marquette

Am I far off here?

Top 7 I would say for sure.  I'm a little less certain about Marquette.

[HoosierAloha 30,024]

10 minutes ago, IUHoosierJoe said:

Top 7 I would say for sure.  I'm a little less certain about Marquette.

It has to be between Marquette, Baylor, Kansas State, and maybe Gonzaga?

 

[Uspshoosier 45,204]

36 minutes ago, HoosierAloha said:

It has to be between Marquette, Baylor, Kansas State, and maybe Gonzaga?

 

I would have Arizona on the 3 line.   4 of their losses are to teams outside of the projected field.  Zags Q3 loss sticks out when comparing teams for the 2 line I don’t think they can get there with an overall sos of 56.  They would have to beat St Marys in the WCC finals to have a legitimate shot at the 2 and have others lose early in the conference tourneys 

[Uspshoosier 45,204]

1 minute ago, Uspshoosier said:

I would have Arizona on the 3 line.   4 of their losses are to teams outside of the projected field.  Zags Q3 loss sticks out when comparing teams for the 2 line I don’t think they can get there with an overall sos of 56.  They would have to beat St Marys in the WCC finals to have a legitimate shot at the 2 and have others lose early in the conference tourneys 

Kansas St non con sos in the 300s and a loss to Butler stick out. That loss is close to a Q3.    Solid 3 seed but I think they would have to win the Big 12 tournament to the 2 line 

[HoosierAloha 30,024]

14 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

I would have Arizona on the 3 line.   4 of their losses are to teams outside of the projected field.  Zags Q3 loss sticks out when comparing teams for the 2 line I don’t think they can get there with an overall sos of 56.  They would have to beat St Marys in the WCC finals to have a legitimate shot at the 2 and have others lose early in the conference tourneys 

Would you give the nod to Baylor and Marquette for the last two 2 seeds? Marquette has a loss at home to Wiscy (Q3). Their losses, minus @UConn, have been close and they own a win over Baylor.

[Uspshoosier 45,204]

4 minutes ago, HoosierAloha said:

Would you give the nod to Baylor and Marquette for the last two 2 seeds? Marquette has a loss at home to Wiscy (Q3). Their losses, minus @UConn, have been close and they own a win over Baylor.

Definitely Baylor for me and I would have to look at Marquette and Zona for the last 2.    It’s between those 2 for the last 2 seed.    Zona has some massive wins but 4 head scratching losses for a team fighting for a 2 seed.   Even though that loss for Marquette to Wisky is a Q3 (3 spots from a Q2) that is at least a team fighting for an at-large and if I’m remembering that was in OT.  Their Non con sos holds them back for me.   Close your eyes and pick one you like better.   Margin isn’t that big between Zona and Marquette 

[IUHoosierJoe 1,110]

26 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

I would have Arizona on the 3 line.   4 of their losses are to teams outside of the projected field.  Zags Q3 loss sticks out when comparing teams for the 2 line I don’t think they can get there with an overall sos of 56.  They would have to beat St Marys in the WCC finals to have a legitimate shot at the 2 and have others lose early in the conference tourneys 

How does the committee balance a resume like Arizona’s, with a good record vs. teams in the field but questionable losses to teams outside the field?  Does one side always outweigh the other, or are there additional factors that go into that determination?

[Uspshoosier 45,204]

1 minute ago, IUHoosierJoe said:

How does the committee balance a resume like Arizona’s, with a good record vs. teams in the field but questionable losses to teams outside the field?  Does one side always outweigh the other, or are there additional factors that go into that determination?

It differs year to year on how they view it.  I’m sure other factors go into to it. We know this committee values high end Q1A wins especially road wins so I would lean towards having Zona as my last 2.   Thinking back committee has Zona at 6 overall and Marquette at 14.   I need to go back and look at what both did since then to see if Marquette moved the needle enough to make up that gap 

[Uspshoosier 45,204]

3 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

It differs year to year on how they view it.  I’m sure other factors go into to it. We know this committee values high end Q1A wins especially road wins so I would lean towards having Zona as my last 2.   Thinking back committee has Zona at 6 overall and Marquette at 14.   I need to go back and look at what both did since then to see if Marquette moved the needle enough to make up that gap 

Marquette won at Creighton and 3 wins against bad teams since the reveal.    Zona beat Colorado at home,  lost at home on a half court shot to a bubble team, won at USC and lost at ucla.     After looking at it Zona is on my 2 line.  

[tomallenfan1 581]

Do we think Gonzaga and St Mary’s game is big for IU’s seeding? If St Mary’s wins, they could move up to a 4 seed. If Gonzaga wins, I don’t see IU surpassing them on the seeding list. Any thoughts?

[Uspshoosier 45,204]

54 minutes ago, tomallenfan1 said:

Do we think Gonzaga and St Mary’s game is big for IU’s seeding? If St Mary’s wins, they could move up to a 4 seed. If Gonzaga wins, I don’t see IU surpassing them on the seeding list. Any thoughts?

St Marys has 3 losses outside the top 100 NET with a 88 SOS.    since the committee didn’t have them in the top 16 reveal earlier that tells me they needed to win at the Zags to have a chance to move up.   I personally don’t think a neutral court win would be enough to pass IU.   Zags were behind IU and since then they added a home win against St Mary’s and some more bad WCC wins.   It will be interesting to see if beating St Mary’s at home and on a neutral court would be enough to move them past IU.    IU added  home wins against Illinois, Michigan and a road win at Purdue while losing at Sparty and home Iowa both tourney teams.    Committee had them 13th to start.   I don’t see enough bad in that to move IU down.   I think IU sits 13th or 14th overall.   Close for sure between the Zags and IU.   I don’t think it’s close between st Mary’s and IU 

[Hovadipo 55,199]

Today’s projection from The Athletic. 

[Banksyrules 4,574]

How much would winning the big ten tourney move the needle  for seeding in the NCAA tourney.