Analysis -- Articles and Discussion

[jonz44 802]

On 11/8/2018 at 10:22 AM, Stromboli said:

 

 

 

"But Stromboli, this isn't really analysis, is it?"

 

Shut up.  It's my thread.  I'll decide what is and isn't analysis.  This is.  

Love this. Getting people to do what's necessary, right, and best when it brings them no recognition, in fact, it quite likely gains recognition for someone else? That's a key to being a great leader. 

This short clip caused me to go find the full interview on YouTube and watch it lol. I'm fascinated by intelligent people. 

[Stromboli 6,055]

https://www.insidethehall.com/2018/12/11/an-in-depth-at-look-at-juwan-morgan-the-creator/

 

100% this Ben Ladner is writing for college credit.  This has to be some internship opportunity and he's getting graded.  His articles sound like my college papers did, heavy use of the thesaurus function.  Still, good work putting it together.  

[JustWinWoody 3,259]

On 12/11/2018 at 12:21 PM, Stromboli said:

https://www.insidethehall.com/2018/12/11/an-in-depth-at-look-at-juwan-morgan-the-creator/

 

100% this Ben Ladner is writing for college credit.  This has to be some internship opportunity and he's getting graded.  His articles sound like my college papers did, heavy use of the thesaurus function.  Still, good work putting it together.  

I think this segment shows a lot of what is in the article.  Overall, I think Ben does a pretty good job.  

[Stromboli 6,055]

And after three days....

 

Let’s resurrect this bish. We’re lucky that our giant fan base can support multiple content providers. One of the most thorough new guys is The Daily Hoosier. Rather than providing his own film study, he just linked an excellent video done by Tony Adragna. More than just showing the plays, he explains our system, and even trends he sees. I learned a ton just from this one video, and I really hope he keeps posting them after each game. 
 

 

 

[Stromboli 6,055]

Now this is interesting.  Both Inside The Hall (by Ryan Corazza) and The Daily Hoosier (reposting Tony Adranga) have their film study feature.  Both included the same defensive breakdown by IU that resulted in a PSU bucket.  While Corazza blames Al for not covering the guy with the ball, Adranga breaks down assignments and attributes it to a miscommunication between Brunk and Thompson.  

 

For my money (exactly $0) I get more from Adranga.

 

First, check the first slide by ITH:

https://www.insidethehall.com/2019/11/11/film-session-portland-state/

 

Now watch the video by Adranga starting at 3:19:

 

 

[Stromboli 6,055]

This Coach Adragna guy is really putting out some great videos.  This is now the 4th on the season, and each kind of builds on the last.  The things he points out in prior videos, he follows up to show new wrinkles.  In his most recent breakdown of the Troy game, he hits on defensive assignments again, the in-bounds plays, offense against the zone (really interesting here), and then just some other stuff.  

 

 

 

And, just because I didn't post the last one, here's from the North Alabama game:

 

 

 

 

 

Last year I did a decently long breakdown of my thoughts on the season, and why we just weren't built to compete from a talent standpoint as shown in the analytics from Bart Torvik (I use Torvik's site because it's free, but it's crunching the same data as Kenpom).  One of the big take-aways was that IU just didn't have the horses.  Using his "PORPAGATU" stat (points over replacement player adjusted per game at that usage), which basically puts the average player at a 1.0.  If you come in above that, you're giving your team an advantage over the average.  Of course under a 1.0 and you're a liability.  Last year we had Juwan and Romeo each scoring very high, above a 4 score for each.  After those two, we basically had placeholders.  No other player on our team was really giving us an advantage.  When you went to the rosters of the Sweet Sixteen teams, you'd have 4-6 players who had excellent PORPAGATU stats.  *I get that the scheme/coaching can affect how efficient player can be individually--no stat will be perfect.  Not looking for a debate on that.

 

Of course, this season is very young, and so we really need some games to create the data to see any trends.  After our first game, Al Durham was almost off-the-charts in efficiency after not missing a shot.  At this point, we've got 4 games in and so we can start to get a feel for what we've got.  The competition is obviously weak and so that might be inflating some of our numbers, but at least it will be a good starting point to follow along.  Here's where we are after 4 games (you can click the pic I believe):

 

Al has come back to earth, but still sitting at the top.  Very nice spread of talent there, rather than haves and have-nots.  How about Race Thompson, in 4th with a very healthy 3.7?  Joey Brunk sitting at 2, which is very close to where he was at Butler, and one of the reasons I opined he'd be starting over De'Ron this year.  

 

Again, it's very early, and I'd expect those numbers to decrease as the defenses we play improve.  But we have absolutely seen some development from last year, especially guys like Race and Damezi.  Coming into the season I think the worry was whether our lack of a star would be a weakness or a strength.  Thus far it appears it's a strength.  The offense is better.  As Coach Adragna says in his video, it's more interesting, and more fun to watch.  

[jonz44 802]

30 minutes ago, Stromboli said:

This Coach Adragna guy is really putting out some great videos.  This is now the 4th on the season, and each kind of builds on the last.  The things he points out in prior videos, he follows up to show new wrinkles.  In his most recent breakdown of the Troy game, he hits on defensive assignments again, the in-bounds plays, offense against the zone (really interesting here), and then just some other stuff.  

 

 

 

And, just because I didn't post the last one, here's from the North Alabama game:

 

 

 

 

 

Last year I did a decently long breakdown of my thoughts on the season, and why we just weren't built to compete from a talent standpoint as shown in the analytics from Bart Torvik (I use Torvik's site because it's free, but it's crunching the same data as Kenpom).  One of the big take-aways was that IU just didn't have the horses.  Using his "PORPAGATU" stat (points over replacement player adjusted per game at that usage), which basically puts the average player at a 1.0.  If you come in above that, you're giving your team an advantage over the average.  Of course under a 1.0 and you're a liability.  Last year we had Juwan and Romeo each scoring very high, above a 4 score for each.  After those two, we basically had placeholders.  No other player on our team was really giving us an advantage.  When you went to the rosters of the Sweet Sixteen teams, you'd have 4-6 players who had excellent PORPAGATU stats.  *I get that the scheme/coaching can affect how efficient player can be individually--no stat will be perfect.  Not looking for a debate on that.

 

Of course, this season is very young, and so we really need some games to create the data to see any trends.  After our first game, Al Durham was almost off-the-charts in efficiency after not missing a shot.  At this point, we've got 4 games in and so we can start to get a feel for what we've got.  The competition is obviously weak and so that might be inflating some of our numbers, but at least it will be a good starting point to follow along.  Here's where we are after 4 games (you can click the pic I believe):

 

Al has come back to earth, but still sitting at the top.  Very nice spread of talent there, rather than haves and have-nots.  How about Race Thompson, in 4th with a very healthy 3.7?  Joey Brunk sitting at 2, which is very close to where he was at Butler, and one of the reasons I opined he'd be starting over De'Ron this year.  

 

Again, it's very early, and I'd expect those numbers to decrease as the defenses we play improve.  But we have absolutely seen some development from last year, especially guys like Race and Damezi.  Coming into the season I think the worry was whether our lack of a star would be a weakness or a strength.  Thus far it appears it's a strength.  The offense is better.  As Coach Adragna says in his video, it's more interesting, and more fun to watch.  

I'm a numbers nerd lol. Good stuff.

[Stromboli 6,055]

Checking back in after another 4 games to see which of our players are producing.  Again, I'm using Bart Torvik's site, and looking at his PORPOGATU! stat, which is supposed to measure how much of an advantage (or disadvantage) a player is giving you over the average.  You can see where I posted this after the first 4 games a few posts up.  

 

Here's a look at individual stats after 8 games, including 2 games against better teams (I believe you can click the image for a better look):

 

 

My first takeaway is that we are trotting out a better team.  Four players who are legit talents in TJD, Devonte, Justin, and Al.  And then another 4 providing very solid play in Race, Rob, Joey, and Damezi.  I think most of us saw Damezi and Race in the bottom 3 coming into the season, but they've shown to be good contributors so far.  Obviously Al has made a jump and deserves some credit.  Trayce is a monster.  

 

Jerome is a surprise.  Between the recruit ranking, the gold jersey, and the performance at HH last year, many of us put some big expectations on him.  In retrospect, those weren't fair, and the fan base has largely let it be.  He feels like a bit of an Ace up the sleeve for future years, in that it just seems like he's still going to become a very good basketball player.

 

Armaan's numbers are surprising and maybe display the failings of any analytics number.  Surely he's played a bigger role for us than shown.  Armaan has taken on being a safety net for us as we've struggled keeping a stable of healthy guards.  I love that he's got this much experience.  I've said before, there's no reason Armaan can't be the best guard on the roster.  Not there yet.  I've also wanted a place to talk about watching Joey at the SDSU game.  I got pretty good seats for that.  When IU was on defense, he was the only guy you could hear communicating.  It was constant, almost robotic, and you could see the other guys responding to it.  I think he improves the whole team, outside of his individual play (which is still good).

 

There's a can of worms sitting in the image, also.  Torvik differentiates between "Close 2" and "Far 2."  A true numbers guy would do that.  There's a massive disparity between the two, and within that disparity sits the line between a good offense and a bad offense.  And the more you shoot long 2s, the greater the damage to your team's overall efficiency.  They are a lazy shot.  It's not that there aren't situations where they come in handy.  I can think of a couple against FSU that went in and kind of saved a possession for us.  But the point is, the more you settle for them--rather than working for a higher percentage shot at the rim or a 3 from a good shooter--the lower your PPP will go.  I think my biggest gripe with them is when guys advocate for more of them.  That's exactly how you kill your efficiency.  

 

Sure, take them from time to time, situational type stuff.  But I really don't even buy the argument that taking the long 2 sets up more room for interior play by pulling defenders out.  With percentages at <45%ish for a long two, there's little reason to aggressively defend them.  Just sit tight for the DR that's coming 55% of the time, with your man already in terrible position to get the OR.  Add in that they are directly contrary to Archie's plan to wear a team down with fouls and waves of bigs, and it's hard not to view them as a selfish, lazy shot.  

 

Alright.  Unfortunately the Tony Adragna guy hasn't posted his film study videos after the last two games.  But here's videos of Archie and Al/Joey previewing Wisconsin, for good measure:

 

 

 

 

 

Get ready to be reminded about 100 times that IU hasn't won at the Kohl Center since Tommy Coverdale was earning Mr. Basketball for the mighty Noblesville Millers (class of '98, yo).  GO HOOSIERS.

[WayneFleekHoosier 46,691]

Great post Stromb!


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[Alford Bailey 12,217]

48 minutes ago, Stromboli said:

Checking back in after another 4 games to see which of our players are producing.  Again, I'm using Bart Torvik's site, and looking at his PORPOGATU! stat, which is supposed to measure how much of an advantage (or disadvantage) a player is giving you over the average.  You can see where I posted this after the first 4 games a few posts up.  

 

Here's a look at individual stats after 8 games, including 2 games against better teams (I believe you can click the image for a better look):

 

 

My first takeaway is that we are trotting out a better team.  Four players who are legit talents in TJD, Devonte, Justin, and Al.  And then another 4 providing very solid play in Race, Rob, Joey, and Damezi.  I think most of us saw Damezi and Race in the bottom 3 coming into the season, but they've shown to be good contributors so far.  Obviously Al has made a jump and deserves some credit.  Trayce is a monster.  

 

Jerome is a surprise.  Between the recruit ranking, the gold jersey, and the performance at HH last year, many of us put some big expectations on him.  In retrospect, those weren't fair, and the fan base has largely let it be.  He feels like a bit of an Ace up the sleeve for future years, in that it just seems like he's still going to become a very good basketball player.

 

Armaan's numbers are surprising and maybe display the failings of any analytics number.  Surely he's played a bigger role for us than shown.  Armaan has taken on being a safety net for us as we've struggled keeping a stable of healthy guards.  I love that he's got this much experience.  I've said before, there's no reason Armaan can't be the best guard on the roster.  Not there yet.  I've also wanted a place to talk about watching Joey at the SDSU game.  I got pretty good seats for that.  When IU was on defense, he was the only guy you could hear communicating.  It was constant, almost robotic, and you could see the other guys responding to it.  I think he improves the whole team, outside of his individual play (which is still good).

 

There's a can of worms sitting in the image, also.  Torvik differentiates between "Close 2" and "Far 2."  A true numbers guy would do that.  There's a massive disparity between the two, and within that disparity sits the line between a good offense and a bad offense.  And the more you shoot long 2s, the greater the damage to your team's overall efficiency.  They are a lazy shot.  It's not that there aren't situations where they come in handy.  I can think of a couple against FSU that went in and kind of saved a possession for us.  But the point is, the more you settle for them--rather than working for a higher percentage shot at the rim or a 3 from a good shooter--the lower your PPP will go.  I think my biggest gripe with them is when guys advocate for more of them.  That's exactly how you kill your efficiency.  

 

Sure, take them from time to time, situational type stuff.  But I really don't even buy the argument that taking the long 2 sets up more room for interior play by pulling defenders out.  With percentages at <45%ish for a long two, there's little reason to aggressively defend them.  Just sit tight for the DR that's coming 55% of the time, with your man already in terrible position to get the OR.  Add in that they are directly contrary to Archie's plan to wear a team down with fouls and waves of bigs, and it's hard not to view them as a selfish, lazy shot.  

 

Alright.  Unfortunately the Tony Adragna guy hasn't posted his film study videos after the last two games.  But here's videos of Archie and Al/Joey previewing Wisconsin, for good measure:

 

 

 

 

 

Get ready to be reminded about 100 times that IU hasn't won at the Kohl Center since Tommy Coverdale was earning Mr. Basketball for the mighty Noblesville Millers (class of '98, yo).  GO HOOSIERS.

Well done!

[Stromboli 6,055]

Let's get some different discussion going, eh?  

 

Earlier this year USPS posted the chart showing that Indiana has the dubious distinction of being the best team at creating excellent looks, and then missing the shot.  

 

Look at us.  Just dominating the Bad Shooters, Good Shots quadrant.  Elite.  

 

USPS also posted this graphic demonstrating how many high percentage shots we're taking.  Again, very high.

 

 

Last I heard Trayce was still leading CBB in attempted free throws, which has mostly been this team's MO for awhile.  Wear them down inside.  Again, higher percentage of made free throws would likely result in a few extra wins a year.  Life is pain.  

 

To my eyes, this offense is much, much better conceived than in years past.  Much faster passes that actually create space for good shots.  Trayce and Race both end up clearing out underneath, popping up to the free throw line, quick passes in then back out.  Rob is being far less conservative with his passing while maintaining his excellent TO percentage.  Galloway shows some excellent passing ability.  Really, the entire thing is working better.  Is it personnel?  Scheme?  Probably both.  

 

Tony Adragna has been making the excellent breakdown videos, but I think he is very obviously a fan and needs space from the team after bad losses.  So while he had been posting some great videos earlier (if you haven't seen, he created a website now rather than just a youtube channel, iufilmroom.com), he hasn't posted since the Maryland game.  Still he did post earlier on some new offensive wrinkles this year:

 

 

 

Sooo, it's not as spelled out as normal, but you can notice some things.  First, we're no longer driving into clogged lanes (or our own players) as he pointed out last year.  I'll be honest, I'm not advanced enough to get all of his notations without him spelling it out for me, and why it is significant compared to what we were doing.  

 

So Coach Adragna's last breakdown was the home game against Maryland.  The good Xs and Os stuff doesn't start until around 5:20, when he delves into the hard hedge, and our 2nd half adjustment away from it.  I'll let the remainder of the video speak for itself:

 

 

 

Coach Adragna makes the same point we've all noticed, Trayce's play can be affected by how he's playing.  Yes, it's circular.  But that's basically what he is, like a positive feedback loop where the better he's playing, the better he plays.  Like a turbo.  You get it.  We all see it.  What I want to point out beyond that is that Trayce is very, very good.  He's the best player Archie's had, and it isn't that close.  

 

I often check in on the PORPUGATU! stat from Bart Torvik, which is a player's value compared to a replacement at the same usage.  Here's his explanation:  https://www.bigtengeeks.com/new-stat-porpagatu/

And here's our roster today:

 

 

You'll notice that the PRPG! stat is that second column, Trayce at a 5.1.  This image is of the entire season.  FWIW, if you check the same for just B1G games, it is mostly the same, with Al making the biggest jump up to 3.1.  

For those curious, Parker Stewart was a 3.5 PRPG! last year for Tennessee Martin.  He'd be our 2nd best player on this team.  

For sake of comparison, here's the team at the end of last year.  Really just Trayce out there:

 

 

Here's 2019, a year that was basically Juwan and Romeo and role players:

 

 

Aaaand for good measure, 2018.  Wooo, boy.  We were bad.  Ranked #71 at the end of the year by Torvik:

 

 

The point I'm making is that the quality of player we're putting out there is appreciably higher than what we've had in the past.  Without Joey, we only have 10 guys to choose from.  Not necessarily deep at any position, and yet we are able to fill most of our minutes with guys that are better at playing basketball than their counterparts.  In looking at the stat, just assume that the darker shade of green, the better you are than the average player and thus creating an advantage.  I've followed this for awhile and the truly dangerous teams will have at least 4 studs, with then a few others in that 2.5 range.  Some quick examples.

 

Iowa, much more than just Garza:

 

 

The Texas team that I kinda enjoyed watching, even as they dismantled us:

 

 

Kentucky:

 

 

The question has always been, how much does the scheme affect a player's PRPG! line, putting him in better position to improve his stat.  You know, it's something, and I don't know.  Wisconsin, for example, has no business being as good as they are.  But, it's a place to start.  

 

I do not mean this to be taking a stand pro-Archie or otherwise.  But, our scheme is better, our players are better, and there's evidence that the scheme isn't as rigid as we've feared.  We are not seeing great returns in the W/L column, but we're also the best 7 loss team by a mile.  Kenpom ranks us at 23, the next closest 7 loss team is Penn State at #43.  We're not going to get AP rankings losing the way we do, and I understand we need the wins bad in the NET.  Ideally over the remainder of the regular season water will find its level and we'll get more wins with a team that on paper isn't as bad as it appears.

 

[Loaded Chicken Sandwich 8,152]

I still wonder if we are getting good shots because of the offense itself getting guys open... Or if teams just don't actually care to defend us that heavily. Especially outside of the paint. 

[Str8Hoosiers 2,965]

The fact that almost 50% of our shots are under 8 feet I would say it is the offense itself creating those shots and not the other team giving us free looks. The reason our slot selection is so good is because we drive the lane and post up so often.... The defense has to defend that heavily because that is what we are trying to do, which makes the outside shots more wide open so they also count as a good shot.... and one contrived based upon on offensive sets.

[ALASKA HOOSIER 11,169]

We lose because of free throws.... or lack of them. 

[HoosierAloha 29,880]

4 hours ago, ALASKA HOOSIER said:

We lose because of free throws.... or lack of them. 

Maybe we could get a rule change to bring a pinch free throw shooter in off the bench?

[Class of '66 Old Fart 80,841]

 

[woodenshoemanHoosierfan 6,088]

 

Bozich on FT shooting

https://www.wdrb.com/sports/bozich-its-tough-and-wrong-to-blame-indianas-issues-on-simply-toughness/article_4be31e26-6657-11eb-afef-9f49e290e186.html

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[HoosierAloha 29,880]

33 minutes ago, woodenshoemanHoosierfan said:

Bozich on FT shooting

https://www.wdrb.com/sports/bozich-its-tough-and-wrong-to-blame-indianas-issues-on-simply-toughness/article_4be31e26-6657-11eb-afef-9f49e290e186.html

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This is sooooo good!

[Stuhoo 75,377]

39 minutes ago, woodenshoemanHoosierfan said:

Bozich on FT shooting

https://www.wdrb.com/sports/bozich-its-tough-and-wrong-to-blame-indianas-issues-on-simply-toughness/article_4be31e26-6657-11eb-afef-9f49e290e186.html

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"Miller does have six guards. He does not have any I would consider triple threats or top of the Big Ten guys. There’s no reason to name names. If you have watched this team, you can fill in the blanks.

One is persistently sloppy with the ball. Another has lost every drop of confidence. Another is routinely a step slow as a lateral defender.

A fourth cannot make a shot deeper than a drive. A fifth passes the ball as quickly as he can find an open teammate. A sixth is attacked by opposing guards as soon as he enters."

1. Armaan
2. Rob
3. Al
4. Trey
5. Anthony
6. Khristian

[Chris007 41,728]

9 minutes ago, Stuhoo said:

"Miller does have six guards. He does not have any I would consider triple threats or top of the Big Ten guys. There’s no reason to name names. If you have watched this team, you can fill in the blanks.

One is persistently sloppy with the ball. Another has lost every drop of confidence. Another is routinely a step slow as a lateral defender.

A fourth cannot make a shot deeper than a drive. A fifth passes the ball as quickly as he can find an open teammate. A sixth is attacked by opposing guards as soon as he enters."

1. Armaan
2. Rob
3. Al
4. Trey
5. Anthony
6. Khristian

I think you could also switch Arman and Al. Arman hasn't moved laterally since the ankle injury and Al is known to be sloppy with the ball as seen the other night