Updated Win Probability by S&P+ (through Week 4)

[Aeggie]

I thought it might be interesting to track how the computers see the team as the season goes along. Right now S&P+ thinks we have about an 80% chance to go bowling, and could end up having a really nice year overall with a few lucky bounces. It's looking more and more like the plan is to redshirt Penix, which I agree with, but I think we still need to give Ramsey more intermediate passing routes to target to really unlock the offense. Our defense, a question mark coming into the year, is currently ranked in the top 20 but our offense is outside of the top 75. I think we have talent on that side of the ball we just need to press a bit more than we do right now.

Hopefully Rutgers sees us get ahead by a few scores and experiment a bit in a game setting

[ThompsonHoosier]

Basically a game were we have no excuse for a loss (@Rutgers this week) and 4 games which are basically toss ups...

[Naturalhoosier]

Sorry for the elementary question. What is the S&P?  Outside of Standard and Poor's 500, I've never heard of it. 

[mamasa]

2 hours ago, Naturalhoosier said:

Sorry for the elementary question. What is the S&P?  Outside of Standard and Poor's 500, I've never heard of it. 

Glad you asked, I was wondering also!

[ThompsonHoosier]

S&P+ rating are a rating system for college football that looks at data from every play and adjust them based on the opponents. It's basically Ken Pomeroy but for college football. This is directly from football outsiders:

"The components for S&P+ reflect opponent-adjusted components of four of what Bill Connelly has deemed the Five Factors of college football: efficiency, explosiveness, field position, and finishing drives. (A fifth factor, turnovers, is informed marginally by sack rates, the only quality-based statistic that has a consistent relationship with turnover margins.)"

This is their site in case anyone wants to read more on it: https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ncaa

[Stromboli]

2 hours ago, Naturalhoosier said:

Sorry for the elementary question. What is the S&P?  Outside of Standard and Poor's 500, I've never heard of it. 

Edit:  Answered

[Aeggie]

10 hours ago, ThompsonHoosier said:

Basically a game were we have no excuse for a loss (@Rutgers this week) and 4 games which are basically toss ups...

Right, and it's interesting to note as your other post mentioned turnovers aren't really accounted for in this model because they're pretty much random. If we can take care of the ball, we can eclipse this record. Or we could get lucky with opponent's fumbles bouncing our way, or happening at all. That could go the other way too and it's a huge factor to winning and losing games.

All that having been said this team does have talent on both sides of the ball and with bolder playcalling offensively I think we can turn the corner but I'm starting to join the chorus on Debord. Ramsey can handle a bit more than what he's being given right now, even stretching the defense another 5 or 10 yards would be huge.

[Naturalhoosier]

Thanks Thompson!

[LIHoosier]

If a probability thread is gonna be up every week, I'll post bowl projections here. Most sites have us going to Detroit to play the likes of UVA(again), Wake, Ohio, or Cincinnati. Bowl Cut(how apropos) has us going to something called the First Responders Bowl in Dallas to play Akron.

[ThompsonHoosier]

[ThompsonHoosier]

Overall in the rankings we dropped 4 spots down to  49th. Offensively we are 89th, defensively 22nd, and special teams up to 54th.

Interesting to point out that Purdue is ranked 50th overall; but they are opposite of us ranking 25th in offense, 82nd in defense, and 81st. on special teams.

 

 

[BabyJandJDaddy]

According to Ken, IU is still the 13th best team in the land. 

www.kensrankings.com

[Brass Cannon]

5 minutes ago, BabyJandJDaddy said:

According to Ken, IU is still the 13th best team in the land. 

www.kensrankings.com

Something tells me you would lose a lot of money using his model for betting

[Alford Bailey]

I see a three game skid to put us at 4-4 then we need 2-3 from Minny, Maryland and Purdue.

[hoosierdogg]

51 minutes ago, Alford Bailey said:

I see a three game skid to put us at 4-4 then we need 2-3 from Minny, Maryland and Purdue.

Odds of an IU-PU Bucket game with both coming in with 5 wins?  Very possible.  Glad this game is in Bloomington.  

[Lebowski]

On 10/1/2018 at 11:20 AM, Alford Bailey said:

I see a three game skid to put us at 4-4 then we need 2-3 from Minny, Maryland and Purdue.

They're going into the meat grinder now.  But honestly after 5 games under their belt I'm looking at all home games (minus Penn St.) as a likely win.  That could put IU at 6 with the potential of 7 or 8 (possible upsets against Penn St. or Michigan) wins going into the Bucket game.  We're talking IU football here so my glass half full outlook is more so delusional than anything else.

[ThompsonHoosier]

[Lebowski]

On 10/2/2018 at 1:52 PM, Lebowski said:

They're going into the meat grinder now.  But honestly after 5 games under their belt I'm looking at all home games (minus Penn St.) as a likely win.  That could put IU at 6 with the potential of 7 or 8 (possible upsets against Penn St. or Michigan) wins going into the Bucket game.  We're talking IU football here so my glass half full outlook is more so delusional than anything else.

After that thumpin' from Iowa I changed my tune.  IU might not even win 5 games this year.

[Alford Bailey]

Wonder what % chance the computer gives us this week? LOL!