Bracketology/NCAA Postioning

[Walking Boot of Doom]

Disclaimer: at work, on mobile, so no research attempted

Is it possible to generate our rating using _only_ data since conference play started?

KenPom doesn't reveal how he adjusts his efficiency numbers, but here is his explanation of what he adjusts for:

 

"Adjusted efficiency: Raw offensive efficiency is points scored per 100 offensive possessions. The adjusted version adjusts for the quality of opposing defenses, the site of each game, and when each game was played (recent games get more weight). Defensive efficiency is points allowed per 100 defensive possessions, adjusted for the same things. (The ratings glossary page has more details on points per possession calculations.)"

 

So, he already takes into account recent play. I know everyone thinks we've been playing much better defensively, which we have, but I still don't really expect to see us make major leaps in the rankings, based on the ranking shifts after wins against teams like Iowa, Maryland, and Purdue.

[HoosierAloha]

I can see a "worst case" scenario where IU beats the lowest seeds possible and struggles to get a 2 seed.  That would include others in front of IU holding serve in their respective tourneys.  It would be extremely difficult to keep the B1G regular season and tourney champ off the 2 line though.

[Uspshoosier]

I can see a "worst case" scenario where IU beats the lowest seeds possible and struggles to get a 2 seed. That would include others in front of IU holding serve in their respective tourneys. It would be extremely difficult to keep the B1G regular season and tourney champ off the 2 line though.

i agree i would be interested to know the lowest seed the winner of the big 10 regular season and BTT has gotten. I can't imagine it's anything less then a 2 and probably no lower then a 1. It would be an interesting debate. Having said that if they go through Michigan, Purdue, and Michigan st I would see no senerio where they are not a 2

[HoosierAloha]

i agree i would be interested to know the lowest seed the winner of the big 10 regular season and BTT has gotten. I can't imagine it's anything less then a 2 and probably no lower then a 1. It would be an interesting debate. Having said that if they go through Michigan, Purdue, and Michigan st I would see no senerio where they are not a 2

 

2015:  Wiscy - 1 seed

2012:  MSU (shared) - 1 seed

2011:  OSU - 1 see

2010:  OSU (shared) - 2 seed

2008:  Wiscy - 3 seed

2007:  OSU - 1 seed

2005:  Ill - 1 seed

[Uspshoosier]

2015: Wiscy - 1 seed
2012: MSU (shared) - 1 seed
2011: OSU - 1 see
2010: OSU (shared) - 2 seed
2008: Wiscy - 3 seed
2007: OSU - 1 seed
2005: Ill - 1 seed

thanks for looking that up aloha

[MartintheMopMan]

Disclaimer: at work, on mobile, so no research attempted

Is it possible to generate our rating using _only_ data since conference play started?

To answer your direct question, yes it is.

 

KenPom has conference play only stats for each team. They are disfavored for this kind of thing because, well mostly because it's a lot more work to get them. You can export the data for his main stats in one click but he does not have easily accessible conference only data. It would have to be manually entered into a spreadsheet. Also, they're disfavored because they're not adjusted stats.

 

Overall though, there is no need to game the numbers. These statistics simply are not useful for predictive purposes; they can tell us we're less likely to win than others, but they can't tell us if we'll win. The reason teams with top defenses usually win is those teams win each of their match-ups.  Indiana's defense is relevant to the point it changes whether we win or lose an individual game. For any given game, a team with a better defense has a greater probability of winning, especially in later rounds as the gaps between the teams reduce.

 

I'll tell you this much either way. The sheet linked above and under discussion is from before last year's Tourney and was created and designed to isolate the common traits of winning teams in order to better predict Champions, Cinderellas, and Final Four teams. How did it do? Not so good. Duke was not in the pool of 14 potential champions because it had an AdjDE of 57. So, don't let statistics make you think any result is impossible. With the right match-ups, we can certainly be champions. With the wrong ones, we can hope for any given 40 minutes.

[Trish]

Listening to Joe L on ESPN. I can't stand him.

[Whoozhers]

JL just said on Mike n Mike .... IU #2 if Hoosiers get to the final. Once again, strength of non-conference schedule prevents a #1.

[HoosierAloha]

JL just said on Mike n Mike .... IU #2 if Hoosiers get to the final. Once again, strength of non-conference schedule prevents a #1.

 

That Maui Invite man!  Instead of facing St. John's (RPI 237) we could have matched up with Vanderbilt (RPI 51) and then either UCLA (RPI 101) or Kansas (RPI 1).  Losing the first game to Wake screwed our RPI/SOS in the non-con but I also truly believe it made IU better.

[OliviaPope40]

Where do you guys think Butler ends up now?

[HoosierAloha]

Where do you guys think Butler ends up now?

 

NIT?

[biteoftheapple]

Where do you guys think Butler ends up now?

They got to hope for no more upsets.

[Uspshoosier]

10-12 seed. Possible first 4 game in Dayton

[HoosierAloha]

10-12 seed. Possible first 4 game in Dayton

 

Where do you see Vandy if they lose this game?  This would be a bad, bad loss right before the tourney.

[Uspshoosier]

Where do you see Vandy if they lose this game? This would be a bad, bad loss right before the tourney.

only 2 wins against rpi top 50 both at home and 3-9 on the road. I think they might be out. I would have to look at my team sheets closer but they really screwed themselves today.

Nevada bs New Mexico starting

[HoosierAloha]

only 2 wins against rpi top 50 both at home and 3-9 on the road. I think they might be out. I would have to look at my team sheets closer but they really screwed themselves today.

Nevada bs New Mexico starting

 

That loss to Vandy is a terrible last image to give the selection committee too. 

[Trish]

I'm a little worried. We just took an L to a team that is still on the bubble.

We have a very weak strength of schedule

We have 0 road wins top 25 teams. (Iowa will be out of top 25)

What's going to bite us in the butt is our strength of schedule and road games. We have 1 road win vs a tourney team, Iowa. Make it 2 if you want to count Notre Dame away.. 3 if Michigan gets in. We have not shown the ability to beat high ranked teams on the road and I believe that has created this picture of us being better than what we are.

We look amazing during home games.. But on the road... We haven't really been tested and that might hurt us in my opinion.

[biteoftheapple]

Andy Bottoms Saturday brackets;

http://assemblycall.com/author/andy-bottoms/

[Trish]

Andy Bottoms Saturday brackets;

http://assemblycall.com/author/andy-bottoms/

Still says yesterday's bracket?

[AKHoosier]

Is there any chance the committee takes into account Robert Johnson's injury when determining seeds?

 

It's a stretch I know, but we'll need a little help to get to a #3 seed, and his injury could play a part of that.

 

They have taken things like coaching changes, injuries, suspensions, etc. into account in the past, so it's not like it's unheard of.