Analysis: Is Kevin Wilson on the hot seat?

[IndyHutch 1,718]

I keep reading comments that people believe that Indiana football coach Kevin Wilson is on the hot seat in his fifth year with the Hoosiers. No winning seasons in the first four and a dismal Big Ten record have IU fans a little bit restless. Here's my take on the topic.I keep hearing the sentiment that the 2015 season is a big year for Kevin Wilson.

IU football needs to win and it needs to win now.

More to the point, Indiana needs to go to a bowl game or Wilson may not be leading the Hoosiers in 2016.

While I understand the frustrations of Indiana football fans and the bowl-game-or-bust mentality, I’m just not in that do-or-die camp just yet when it comes to IU’s fifth-year coach.

Yes, Wilson’s 14-34 overall record in four seasons at IU is certainly not something to get excited about. Even worse is the Big Ten record in that span of 6-26.

Should the IU alumni and its fans expect more? Absolutely. But having expectations and seeing immediate results are often two different things.

I also think that IU athletic director Fred Glass is a strong believer that Wilson is the right guy for the job. He thinks Wilson can get the Hoosiers over the top.

All of that aside, I also get how Indiana fans are so tired of being told, ‘Be patient, be patient.’ Patience only goes so far. I remember a poster that was sold at a local convenience store when I was growing up that showed two vultures sitting in a tree looking down on a herd of animals below. One vulture is saying to the other, “Patience my ass, I want to kill something.’’

And yes, Indiana fans are tired of being patient when it comes to football.

The unfortunate reality is that it’s not going to be easy. Sure, IU’s recruiting classes of late have been some of the school’s best in many years. But that’s almost not a fair comparison. The reality there is that some of those old classes were so bad that it’s almost surprising that Indiana was able to win any games at all.

Recent classes have been better but it’s not like Indiana is pulling in a large number of four and five star recruits. The norm is a bunch of three’s and an occasional four-star sprinkled in.

IU also has an incredibly small margin of error. As we talked about with the J-Shun Harris situation, IU can survive a couple of player losses like that but it can’t lose its top skill players and have a chance to compete in the Eastern Division of the Big Ten. One big loss like Nate Sudfeld a year ago was simply too much for the Hoosiers to overcome.

The other problem for Indiana is the fact that it plays in a division that also includes Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan State and Penn State. In order for Indiana to get to a bowl other than something like the Polian Weedeater Bowl (although that is still better than no bowl), IU will have to get to the point where it can beat one or two of those four teams on a somewhat consistent basis.

If not, that margin for error shrinks. Now you go back to that formula where you must win all of your non-conference games and then find a way to win a couple of Big Ten games. And that will soon get more difficult when the Big Ten goes to a schedule where teams will play nine conference and three non-conference games.

So I guess my take on Wilson is pretty simple. As long as Indiana doesn’t do a complete belly flop this year (something that could always force an athletic director’s hand), I think Wilson will likely be back beyond the 2015 season.

That may not be the news that some Indiana fans want to hear but I think it’s the truth. The problem with making a change is that when you do so you often have to wait another three or four years before the new coach gets his own players and has a chance to be successful.

Wilson, in his fifth year, now has his own players and Indiana fans simply have to hope that those players are good enough to get Indiana to just its second bowl game in more than 20 years.
@IndySportsHutch

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[jmsgws 2,181]

What is your definition of a "belly flop" ?  I think he has to do at least 5 wins.  I like Coach Wilson, I don't like changing coaches every 4 or 5 years, but there has to be a glimmer of improvement.

[IndyHutch 1,718]

What is your definition of a "belly flop" ?  I think he has to do at least 5 wins.  I like Coach Wilson, I don't like changing coaches every 4 or 5 years, but there has to be a glimmer of improvement.

 

I think a belly flop would be much worse than five wins. I was thinking one or two. I know that's probably not what people want to hear but I think that's closer to reality.

[Naturalhoosier 15,424]

Hot seat?  No.  Incredibly warm seat?  Absolutely.  Your points are valid, but I'm also confident that if we do go through a coaching change, the next coach will be even better than Wilson.  The basis of player talent is much higher than when Wilson took over and will be more attractive than years past (relative to IU only, not comparing to any others school). 

[akhosrof 1,168]

Question: you put the 2013 offense with the 2014 defense, and how many games do we win? I think you also have to assume the defense will be a little more improved given the second year in the system. IMO the reason fans are so negative because the offense was so anemic last season. I also think fans remember offensive struggles against Indiana State and Maryland before Sudfeld went down.

If this offense goes back to 2013 levels, you have to think we have a good chance at winning our first four games and the Purdue game, then have a fighter's chance against UMD, Rutgers, PSU and Michigan.

If we lose to Wake, I could see fans getting extremely frustrated with CKW.

[mamasa 15,269]

I truly think that, when you've been as bad as we have been, for so long, marginal improvements consistently are better than starting over every 4 years.  I like what I've seen CKW building, he's improved in his PR/image on campus, and seems to recognize areas to improve.  He's not a marketing dream, in that he doesn't have the buzzwords (nor seem to care about them), but has the old school football coach mentality.  Plus, he's had a lot of the kids from Columbus, IN on the team :)  Hoping that it's a great season!

[Hoosier116 318]

I'm with natural on this that his seat is very warm. I've been coming to iufb games since I was 4 with my dad and 24 years later I'm as in love with this program as I was then. Is it misery?? Maybe. But I really truly believe Wilson is the man for this job. He has brought a new attitude to the players and I think that they believe they are going to do great things this season and THEY have wilsons back. I think we win our 4 non conf games and get two or 3 in BIG play. Rutgers and Purdue for sure IMO. When do my season tix arrive??

[IndyHutch 1,718]

Hot seat?  No.  Incredibly warm seat?  Absolutely.  Your points are valid, but I'm also confident that if we do go through a coaching change, the next coach will be even better than Wilson.  The basis of player talent is much higher than when Wilson took over and will be more attractive than years past (relative to IU only, not comparing to any others school). 

 

I'm just not sure about the level of the next coach. If a change is needed that you can pretty much assume that Indiana had another losing season. That still puts you in a situation where you're looking for a coach to inherit a program considered among the worst in the Big Ten. I still remember a recent IU football coaching search where the Notre Dame job was open at the same time. Someone ran a list of all the candidates for the Notre Dame job and it was about 20 names long. Then they did a list of the IU candidates and it was another 20 names. And there wasn't one name on the list that was on both. That tells me a lot.

[IndyHutch 1,718]

Question: you put the 2013 offense with the 2014 defense, and how many games do we win? I think you also have to assume the defense will be a little more improved given the second year in the system. IMO the reason fans are so negative because the offense was so anemic last season. I also think fans remember offensive struggles against Indiana State and Maryland before Sudfeld went down.

If this offense goes back to 2013 levels, you have to think we have a good chance at winning our first four games and the Purdue game, then have a fighter's chance against UMD, Rutgers, PSU and Michigan.

If we lose to Wake, I could see fans getting extremely frustrated with CKW.

 

The problem always comes back to your comment right there. "You have to think we have a good chance at winning our first four games.'' How many times have IU fans said that and how many times has it actually happened in recent memory. In the last 20 years it has happened twice -- 2007 and 2010. Bill Lynch was the coach both years.

 

If you're correct, however, then I think Indiana finds a way this season to hit the magic number of six.

[MartintheMopMan 7,765]

Think we would ever bring in Jim Tressel when his "show cause" is over after the 2016 season?

[Class of '66 Old Fart 84,668]

Think we would ever bring in Jim Tressel when his "show cause" is over after the 2016 season?

 

I would expect a lot higher profile programs to chase after him despite his 'vacation' from coaching.

 

And I wholeheartedly agree with Terry's comment #8.  With our historically and lately chronically bad football program, if you're a coach with any kind of coaching pedigree and credentials why would you want to take over our program?  There's little to be said for having head coach at Indiana University on your resumé. 

[KelleyHoosh 2,263]

Think we would ever bring in Jim Tressel when his "show cause" is over after the 2016 season?

I doubt he would consider us. I'm sure when his show cause is up a higher profile program will get to him 

[IndyHutch 1,718]

I doubt he would consider us. I'm sure when his show cause is up a higher profile program will get to him

I would doubt it as well.

[LIHoosier 26,148]

Think we would ever bring in Jim Tressel when his "show cause" is over after the 2016 season?

He's president of Youngstown St. now. (Yes, president president) I'm sure he has a decent and long term agreement there.

Speaking of Youngstown, maybe Bo Pelini wants to get back to FBS in a couple years. Nebraska's fans may be tired of 9-3 seasons, but that would get him a statue at IU.

[Brass Cannon 24,721]

Heres the problem though with not going to a bowl game it means that we failed to win games we should have won without winning an equal or greater number of games where we were the underdog. 

 

People keep acting as if the MIzzou win was so meaningful but then we went and screwed the pooch the next week.  That just shows that Wilson has built a very talented team.  But lack of discipline and some questionable in game coaching gives us a huge range of performance on any given Saturday.  And that range is very skewed towards pathetic displays. 

 

Its been 4 years, if he can't get them at least playing smart consistent football in 4 years, its not going to happen in years 5, 6 or 7. 

 

Our problem is hiring an assistant.  Which is the mistake we have made the last 2 times.  Hep had shown the ability to build a team before. Is that too much to ask in a head coach. 

[Bobman1 2,909]

As you said, we mostly get 3 stars with an occasional four star sprinkled in. If you look at the top Big Ten schools they're getting many four stars with five and three stars sprinkled in. If we want to compete with those programs for example, Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan State, Wisconsin, and even Penn State, we need to recruit better. In game coaching is key, but he needs to improve the talent level on his rosters.

[Class of '66 Old Fart 84,668]

As you said, we mostly get 3 stars with an occasional four star sprinkled in. If you look at the top Big Ten schools they're getting many four stars with five and three stars sprinkled in. If we want to compete with those programs for example, Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan State, Wisconsin, and even Penn State, we need to recruit better. In game coaching is key, but he needs to improve the talent level on his rosters.

 

But isn't that a catch-22?  We need the higher ranked recruits but why would they want to play for IU when the perennial major bowl bound high profile teams are blowing in their ears?  I'm personally not big on getting 6 wins just to be a bowl team if we can't be competitive in the B1G.  But having said that, that is the only way to enhance our own profile is to start consistently making it into the bowls.  Then maybe, we can start landing more of the 4 star players.  It's a slow process and won't happen in just 1 or 2 seasons.  And if Wilson leaves for whatever reason, his choice, our choice, then the whole process just takes another giant step backwards.

[Brass Cannon 24,721]

But isn't that a catch-22?  We need the higher ranked recruits but why would they want to play for IU when the perennial major bowl bound high profile teams are blowing in their ears?  I'm personally not big on getting 6 wins just to be a bowl team if we can't be competitive in the B1G.  But having said that, that is the only way to enhance our own profile is to start consistently making it into the bowls.  Then maybe, we can start landing more of the 4 star players.  It's a slow process and won't happen in just 1 or 2 seasons.  And if Wilson leaves for whatever reason, his choice, our choice, then the whole process just takes another giant step backwards.

 

You are assuming that Wilson is capable of achieving that result.  If he isn't its best to cut our losses earlier.  And frankly after 4 years a coach should at least have his team playing consistent if hes up to the task. 

[Class of '66 Old Fart 84,668]

You are assuming that Wilson is capable of achieving that result.  If he isn't its best to cut our losses earlier.  And frankly after 4 years a coach should at least have his team playing consistent if hes up to the task. 

 

Cam Cameron    1997-2001    5 seasons    18 wins 37 losses

Gerry DiNardo     2002-2004    3 seasons      8 wins 27 losses

Terry Hoeppner    Unfair to compare because of the circumstances

Bill Lynch             2007-2010    4 seasons     19 wins 30 losses

Kevin Wilson        2011 +          3 seasons      10 wins 26 losses

 

My point isn't to defend Coach Wilson but to say that maybe 4 years isn't enough with a football program given the number of different positions that have to be filled unlike a basketball team.  And if we want to roll our football coach every 3-5 years, then I don't think we should expect the results to be much different from that shown above.

[Bobman1 2,909]

But isn't that a catch-22? We need the higher ranked recruits but why would they want to play for IU when the perennial major bowl bound high profile teams are blowing in their ears? I'm personally not big on getting 6 wins just to be a bowl team if we can't be competitive in the B1G. But having said that, that is the only way to enhance our own profile is to start consistently making it into the bowls. Then maybe, we can start landing more of the 4 star players. It's a slow process and won't happen in just 1 or 2 seasons. And if Wilson leaves for whatever reason, his choice, our choice, then the whole process just takes another giant step backwards.

That's the problem, no one wants to play for Indiana because they don't win. It's a cycle of losing.