Way Too Early B1G 2015-16 (Long Post)

[incrediboy 926]

BTN has already posted its way-too-early predictions for next year...IU is #3

 

http://btn.com/2015/04/07/dienhart-super-early-predicted-order-of-finish-for-2015-16-big-ten-hoops/

 

So I'll open the discussion on this board with my predictions...and my logic:

 

1. Indiana (14-4). At this point, everybody that matters returns, including Troy Williams, Yogi Ferrell, James Blackmon Jr., Robert Johnson, Colin Hartman, Hanner Mosquera-Perea, Nick Zeisloft and Emmett Holt. Juwan Morgan will be a great addition as a power forward who can score, and Thomas Bryant gives IU a legit big man at center for the first time since Zeller headed for the pros. Bryant is either a four-star or five-star recruit, depending on the service you trust, and Morgan is a high four. Juggling playing time for a logjam of players in the 6-7 to 6-8 range. If Thon Maker chooses Indiana over Kentucky or Kansas, 14-4 will be a conservative guess.

 

2. Purdue (13-5). I realize I'm probably the only one listing Purdue this high, but I think Painter regained his coaching talents last year. Jon Octeus and Neal Beshears are the only graduation losses, leaving Hammons, Haas, Kendall Stephens and a number of other guys with a lot of playing time returning. This team will be better than last year unless Hammons unexpectedly decides to go pro, but recruits are slim with two three-star Indiana natives, shooting guard Ryan Cline of Carmel and Grant Weatherford of Hamilton Heights the only commits as of now. Still any improvement from Haas makes this team dangerous.

 

3. Michigan State (13-5). Sparty returns Denziel Valenine, transfer Eron harris from WV. Travis Trice and Brandon Dawson graduate. 6-8 power forward Deyonta Davis of Muskegon and shooting guard Matthew McQuaid head up a small but well-regarded recruiting class. Izzo will stay in the upper echelons of the B1G barring injuries.

 

4. Maryland (12-6). Melo Trimble and Jake Layman return along with Diamond Stone, a top 10 5-star recruit from Milwaukee and a big presence at 6-10. Dez Wells and Evan Smotrycz graduate. Impact of Michal Cekovsky, Eastern European 7-footer who joined the team at mid-season but had no impact last year, remains to be seen. As of now, only 3-star point guard Jaylen Brantley is listed as a signed or committed recruit beyond Stone. Still, Trimble, Layman and Stone give the Terps enough to compete favorably.

 

5. Michigan (11-7). Michigan graduates nobody, got its first listed recruit this week in 3-star Moritz Wagner, but does have Div III transfer 6-8 Duncan Robinson. Zak Irvin returns along with backcourt mate Spike Albrecht, assuming he's able to fully come back from hip surgery. Will LeVert go pro? Doubtful, but if so it could be a long year for Michigan. If not, look for this team to have great early success with virtually everyone in the Beilein system for at least a year.

 

6. Ohio State (11-7). OSU returns Mark Loving, Jae'Sean Tate, loses Scott, Williams, Lee to graduation and Thomas (we assume) to NBA. However, the incoming freshman class is one ofThad Matta's best, headed by 6-10 center Daniel Giddens. Three other four-star prospects are signed, and another, Jaquan Lyle, has made a verbal commitment. OSU may need a little time for these freshmen to integrate but they'll be tough by conference time.

 

7. Iowa (10-8). Iowa graduates Oglesby, White, Denning, returns Woodbury (7-1), Jarrod Uthoff, Peter Jok and Mike Gessell. That's a good crew for Fran McCaffrey to work with, but there are questions about Woodbury's effectiveness with Aaron White's graduation drawing more defense to him. No recruits higher than four 3-stars for the Hawkeyes, and three of the four are small forwards. Iowa needs to win now because things will be going downhill unless a late recruit or two shows up.

 

8. Wisconsin (10-8). Assuming Dekker goes pro, Wisconsin brings back only Koenig and Hayes who played much at all. Zak Showalter (6-2) will probably join Koenig in the backcourt and high hopes are pinned on redshirt 6-9 forward Ethan Happ. The Badgers do have two incoming four-star recruits in Brevin Pritzi and Alex Illikainen, assuring that Wisconsin will continue to have the hardest-to-pronounce lineup once again. Badger nation is up in arms about Milwaukee's 5-star prospect center Diamond Stone choosing Maryland, and Stone's snub of his home-state B1G team is probably the biggest reason the Badgers could be looking at their worst finish under Ryan ever, but still over .500 in the B1G and positioned to make the Big Dance.

 

9. Northwestern (7-11). Dave Sobolewski and JerShon Cobb will graduate, but Trey Demps and Alex Olah lead a cast of characters that improved greatly over the course of the past year. Still, Northwestern was never a threat in the standings or to make the NCAA. TV announcers gush over Chris Collins' supposed rising program, but really the incoming class doesn't appear outstanding (so far), with non-consensus four-star Aaron Falzon, a 6-8 power forward, the best of only three newcomers. Based on this, I don't see the Wilcats rising more than a notch -- or coming close to the Big Dance.

 

10. Illinois (7-11). Illinois graduates Egwu, Rice, Abrams, returns Kendrick Nunn. Good recruiting class headed by 4-star (some say 5) Jalen Coleman-Landis of LaPorte, IN. Two other four-star recruits are also in the hunt, and only Ohio State has a higher-rated incoming class. John Groce will need a couple more classes like this to justify his hiring, which so far has been far from a success, and it will probably be at least another year before Illinois is a contender in the conference unless Coleman-Landis carries the team a little higher.

 

11. Penn State (6-12). D.J. Newbill exits with a diploma, taking away scoring option number one for what seems like forever at Penn State. Pat Chambers is a hard-working coach, but his blue-collar-like playing style will probably leave the Lions in the lower echelons of the Big Ten again. Geno Thorpe and Donovon Jack are the best of the returns. Recruiting class is decent with a par of 4-stars in power forward Mike Watkins and shooting guard Josh Reaves. But that class doesn't rank in the upper half of the B1G, leaving the Lions as probable also-rans yet again.

 

12. Minnesota (5-13). Minnesota returns Joey King and Charles Buggs while graduating Andre Hollins and Elliott Eliason plus Diandre Mathieu and Maurice Walker. The incoming class currently ranks 9th among B1G teams by 24/7 Sports, headed by four-star point guard Kevin Dorsey along with 3 three-star players, only one a local Minnesota boy, point-guard Jarvis Johnson. Unless this team overachieves, there will be a lot of rumbles in Gopherland about Pitino Junior's job.

 

13. Nebraska (5-13). Several graduates, most notably David Rivers, Nebraska needs some revived scoring punch with Terran Petteway's game going downhill in his junior year. Can he bring it back as a senior? Tim Miles has a highly regarded recruiting class that includes four-star point guard Glynn Watson and 6-7 power forward Ed Morrow, also a 4-star. This could be a do-or-die year for Miles, whose nurturing low-key coaching style played into success two years ago but crashed last year. Hard to say what this team will do but hard to predict it contending.

 

14. Rutgers (2-16). Rutgers graduates its go-to guy in Myles Mack, which is similar to Newbill's graduation in Penn State. Four-star point guard Corey Sanders heads up a more-or-less lackluster recruiting crop, although 3-star small forward Kejuan Johnson is one of the higher-rated three-star players. Frankly, it's hard to figure out two games Rutgers can win, but, hey, they beat Wisconsin last year and lost by 30 to IU at home.

[djsalway 4,161]

I don't think there's any way Maryland doesn't win the B1G unless we get Thon, and I definitely wouldn't put my money on Wisconsin finishing that low.

[BlueDevil 8,818]

I don't think there's any way Maryland doesn't win the B1G unless we get Thon, and I definitely wouldn't put my money on Wisconsin finishing that low.

They will somehow finish top 4 like always

[HoosierCoop 3,963]

BTN has already posted its way-too-early predictions for next year...IU is #3

 

http://btn.com/2015/04/07/dienhart-super-early-predicted-order-of-finish-for-2015-16-big-ten-hoops/

 

So I'll open the discussion on this board with my predictions...and my logic:

 

1. Indiana (14-4). At this point, everybody that matters returns, including Troy Williams, Yogi Ferrell, James Blackmon Jr., Robert Johnson, Colin Hartman, Hanner Mosquera-Perea, Nick Zeisloft and Emmett Holt. Juwan Morgan will be a great addition as a power forward who can score, and Thomas Bryant gives IU a legit big man at center for the first time since Zeller headed for the pros. Bryant is either a four-star or five-star recruit, depending on the service you trust, and Morgan is a high four. Juggling playing time for a logjam of players in the 6-7 to 6-8 range. If Thon Maker chooses Indiana over Kentucky or Kansas, 14-4 will be a conservative guess.

 

2. Purdue (13-5). I realize I'm probably the only one listing Purdue this high, but I think Painter regained his coaching talents last year. Jon Octeus and Neal Beshears are the only graduation losses, leaving Hammons, Haas, Kendall Stephens and a number of other guys with a lot of playing time returning. This team will be better than last year unless Hammons unexpectedly decides to go pro, but recruits are slim with two three-star Indiana natives, shooting guard Ryan Cline of Carmel and Grant Weatherford of Hamilton Heights the only commits as of now. Still any improvement from Haas makes this team dangerous.

 

3. Michigan State (13-5). Sparty returns Denziel Valenine, transfer Eron harris from WV. Travis Trice and Brandon Dawson graduate. 6-8 power forward Deyonta Davis of Muskegon and shooting guard Matthew McQuaid head up a small but well-regarded recruiting class. Izzo will stay in the upper echelons of the B1G barring injuries.

 

4. Maryland (12-6). Melo Trimble and Jake Layman return along with Diamond Stone, a top 10 5-star recruit from Milwaukee and a big presence at 6-10. Dez Wells and Evan Smotrycz graduate. Impact of Michal Cekovsky, Eastern European 7-footer who joined the team at mid-season but had no impact last year, remains to be seen. As of now, only 3-star point guard Jaylen Brantley is listed as a signed or committed recruit beyond Stone. Still, Trimble, Layman and Stone give the Terps enough to compete favorably.

 

5. Michigan (11-7). Michigan graduates nobody, got its first listed recruit this week in 3-star Moritz Wagner, but does have Div III transfer 6-8 Duncan Robinson. Zak Irvin returns along with backcourt mate Spike Albrecht, assuming he's able to fully come back from hip surgery. Will LeVert go pro? Doubtful, but if so it could be a long year for Michigan. If not, look for this team to have great early success with virtually everyone in the Beilein system for at least a year.

 

6. Ohio State (11-7). OSU returns Mark Loving, Jae'Sean Tate, loses Scott, Williams, Lee to graduation and Thomas (we assume) to NBA. However, the incoming freshman class is one ofThad Matta's best, headed by 6-10 center Daniel Giddens. Three other four-star prospects are signed, and another, Jaquan Lyle, has made a verbal commitment. OSU may need a little time for these freshmen to integrate but they'll be tough by conference time.

 

7. Iowa (10-8). Iowa graduates Oglesby, White, Denning, returns Woodbury (7-1), Jarrod Uthoff, Peter Jok and Mike Gessell. That's a good crew for Fran McCaffrey to work with, but there are questions about Woodbury's effectiveness with Aaron White's graduation drawing more defense to him. No recruits higher than four 3-stars for the Hawkeyes, and three of the four are small forwards. Iowa needs to win now because things will be going downhill unless a late recruit or two shows up.

 

8. Wisconsin (10-8). Assuming Dekker goes pro, Wisconsin brings back only Koenig and Hayes who played much at all. Zak Showalter (6-2) will probably join Koenig in the backcourt and high hopes are pinned on redshirt 6-9 forward Ethan Happ. The Badgers do have two incoming four-star recruits in Brevin Pritzi and Alex Illikainen, assuring that Wisconsin will continue to have the hardest-to-pronounce lineup once again. Badger nation is up in arms about Milwaukee's 5-star prospect center Diamond Stone choosing Maryland, and Stone's snub of his home-state B1G team is probably the biggest reason the Badgers could be looking at their worst finish under Ryan ever, but still over .500 in the B1G and positioned to make the Big Dance.

 

9. Northwestern (7-11). Dave Sobolewski and JerShon Cobb will graduate, but Trey Demps and Alex Olah lead a cast of characters that improved greatly over the course of the past year. Still, Northwestern was never a threat in the standings or to make the NCAA. TV announcers gush over Chris Collins' supposed rising program, but really the incoming class doesn't appear outstanding (so far), with non-consensus four-star Aaron Falzon, a 6-8 power forward, the best of only three newcomers. Based on this, I don't see the Wilcats rising more than a notch -- or coming close to the Big Dance.

 

10. Illinois (7-11). Illinois graduates Egwu, Rice, Abrams, returns Kendrick Nunn. Good recruiting class headed by 4-star (some say 5) Jalen Coleman-Landis of LaPorte, IN. Two other four-star recruits are also in the hunt, and only Ohio State has a higher-rated incoming class. John Groce will need a couple more classes like this to justify his hiring, which so far has been far from a success, and it will probably be at least another year before Illinois is a contender in the conference unless Coleman-Landis carries the team a little higher.

 

11. Penn State (6-12). D.J. Newbill exits with a diploma, taking away scoring option number one for what seems like forever at Penn State. Pat Chambers is a hard-working coach, but his blue-collar-like playing style will probably leave the Lions in the lower echelons of the Big Ten again. Geno Thorpe and Donovon Jack are the best of the returns. Recruiting class is decent with a par of 4-stars in power forward Mike Watkins and shooting guard Josh Reaves. But that class doesn't rank in the upper half of the B1G, leaving the Lions as probable also-rans yet again.

 

12. Minnesota (5-13). Minnesota returns Joey King and Charles Buggs while graduating Andre Hollins and Elliott Eliason plus Diandre Mathieu and Maurice Walker. The incoming class currently ranks 9th among B1G teams by 24/7 Sports, headed by four-star point guard Kevin Dorsey along with 3 three-star players, only one a local Minnesota boy, point-guard Jarvis Johnson. Unless this team overachieves, there will be a lot of rumbles in Gopherland about Pitino Junior's job.

 

13. Nebraska (5-13). With several graduates, most notably Terran Petteway and David Rivers, Nebraska needs some revived scoring punch. Tim Miles has a highly regarded recruiting class that includes four-star point guard Glynn Watson and 6-7 power forward Ed Morrow, also a 4-star. This could be a do-or-die year for Miles, whose nurturing low-key coaching style played into success two years ago but crashed last year. Hard to say what this team will do but hard to predict it contending.

 

14. Rutgers (2-16). Rutgers graduates its go-to guy in Myles Mack, which is similar to Newbill's graduation in Penn State. Four-star point guard Corey Sanders heads up a more-or-less lackluster recruiting crop, although 3-star small forward Kejuan Johnson is one of the higher-rated three-star players. Frankly, it's hard to figure out two games Rutgers can win, but, hey, they beat Wisconsin last year and lost by 30 to IU at home.

Loving the outlook already!  It should be a competitive year for the Stripes!

[djsalway 4,161]

They will somehow finish top 4 like always

Exactly. Bo knows.

[KingPG21 6,587]

Yeah Maryland is the team to beat, and you don't bet against Bo.

Having them way down at 8th is way too low

[NoahW35 459]

Maryland has a National Championship level roster. Trimble, Layman, Stone, Carter, Nickens, Wiley. Nobody in the Big Ten can match that unless we get Thon.

[incrediboy 926]

Maybe and maybe...but remember for the first 20 years or so of Knight's IU career every one of his graduating classes had won at least one B1G championship, not so with his last few classes. All good things do come to an end. I think this is the year it happens to Bo. That said, note I only have him one game out of fifth place. BTN picks Wisky fifth, btw.

[Crimson and Cream 5,847]

Maryland is easily #1 for me. Michigan St would be second, with IU not too far behind for 3rd. Just a big cluster of tourney caliber teams after that. In no particular order, Purdue, Ohio St., Michigan, Northwestern, Wisconsin, Illinois, Iowa all capable of making the tourney. Rutgers...is it possible they could be worse than last year?

[HoosierAloha 30,077]

Maryland is easily #1 for me. Michigan St would be second, with IU not too far behind for 3rd. Just a big cluster of tourney caliber teams after that. In no particular order, Purdue, Ohio St., Michigan, Northwestern, Wisconsin, Illinois, Iowa all capable of making the tourney. Rutgers...is it possible they could be worse than last year?

Maryland is going to be good next season but they will need to find a replacement for Dez Wells. They won 10 B1G games by two possessions or less and Wells was a big reason for that. I see them being in the top 3 again.

Pu should also be solid but they'll have to find a point to replace Ocetius (sp?) to run the show. He played provided leadership for a young team.

Bo will do Bo things and finish in the top four, again.

MSU will rebound and be tough too. Eron Harris and Deyonta Davis will be good additions to that team.

Not too sure how O$U will do after losing Russell and Scott in the backcourt. And undersized Tate and Loving will be key pieces along with newcomer Giddens. ESPN has them out in their way too early bracketology.

[Hovadipo 57,034]

Maryland is going to be good next season but they will need to find a replacement for Dez Wells. They won 10 B1G games by two possessions or less and Wells was a big reason for that. I see them being in the top 3 again.

Pu should also be solid but they'll have to find a point to replace Ocetius (sp?) to run the show. He played provided leadership for a young team.

Bo will do Bo things and finish in the top four, again.

MSU will rebound and be tough too. Eron Harris and Deyonta Davis will be good additions to that team.

Not too sure how O$U will do after losing Russell and Scott in the backcourt. And undersized Tate and Loving will be key pieces along with newcomer Giddens. ESPN has them out in their way too early bracketology.

Don't forget Jaquan and Trevor Thompson for OSU.

[Feathery 4,005]

Not sure why everyone is in love with Maryland. Sure they will be good but we have the better roster and they lost their best player in Wells. We have lost nobody of consequence. We blew them out at home, played them tough away and in the BTT with a undersized squad.

I think IU has the best roster in conference. We won't get the preseason fanfare of a couple years ago, but we are a legit top 5/10 team nationally (Let's see where the rest of the top prospects go).

[NoahW35 459]

Not sure why everyone is in love with Maryland. Sure they will be good but we have the better roster and they lost their best player in Wells. We have lost nobody of consequence. We blew them out at home, played them tough away and in the BTT with a undersized squad.

I think IU has the best roster in conference. We won't get the preseason fanfare of a couple years ago, but we are a legit top 5/10 team nationally (Let's see where the rest of the top prospects go).

I think Wiley and Nickens are very capable of filling in for Wells. Both were highly recruited players that were very good last season. Then they also add Stone, Carter, and Brantley. At this time I think there roster is definitely better than ours

[djsalway 4,161]

Not sure why everyone is in love with Maryland. Sure they will be good but we have the better roster and they lost their best player in Wells. We have lost nobody of consequence. We blew them out at home, played them tough away and in the BTT with a undersized squad.

I think IU has the best roster in conference. We won't get the preseason fanfare of a couple years ago, but we are a legit top 5/10 team nationally (Let's see where the rest of the top prospects go).

I think we match up well against Maryland, but I also think they will roll through the rest of the B1G

[BGleas 7,917]

I agree that Maryland is the favorite, but also agree with the idea that replacing Wells will be a challenge. While Wiley and Nickens are capable and were highly recruited, it's not just replacing the numbers. Wells was the heart and soul of that team. Trimble is excellent and Layman is kind of like Troy (shows up sometimes and doesn't others), but Wells was the guy that willed them and stirred the drink.

As HoosierAloha said, they were in a ton of close games, and in a lot of them it was Wells making the winning play. Their record could have been much different last season if a play or two went the other way. The other thing is that it wasn't just close games against top teams, they came very close to losing to both Norhtwestern and PSU at home.

So while I agree the talent is there, making it gel without Wells will be a challenge.

I think Wiley and Nickens are very capable of filling in for Wells. Both were highly recruited players that were very good last season. Then they also add Stone, Carter, and Brantley. At this time I think there roster is definitely better than ours

[NRT137 316]

1 iu
2 Maryland
3 Purdoo
4 msu
5 osu
6 wiscy
7 Michigan...

Even if we don't get thon, which i personally don't see happening thanks to 7 UK players leaving

[Uspshoosier 46,631]

With Swanigan picking Michigan st , stone at Maryland and bryant at Iu i would pick those 3 teams as the top 3 There are a lot of good bigs that are going to battle down low next year

[AKHoosier 7,071]

Thank God we got Bryant, there are going to be an awful lot of good bigs in the B1G next season.  Diamond Stone, Caleb Swanigan, Hammons, Haas, OSU has a few, Deyonta Davis, and Woodbury.

 

I hope Hanner and Holt are ready to put in the work this summer.  Conference will be very tough next year.

[323SGrant 1,176]

1. MD

2. MSU

3. PU

4. IU

5. WI

 

After being swept by PU this year, I'm skeptical leaving them out of the top 4 even if Octeus has graduated. Also difficult for me to not have WI in the top 5.

[WayneFleekHoosier 48,778]

@JonRothstein: The Big Ten looking like it has three legitimate teams in the Top 15-20 for next season: Maryland, Michigan State, and Indiana. #iubb