College Bball Thread

[RaceToTheTop]

Think they missed a goal tend that would have given Marquette a five point lead....definitely looked like it was off the backboard.

[RaceToTheTop]

Marquette will win.

[Uspshoosier]

I’ve watched enough of the bubble.  Put ISU in and call it a day.   Put them in Dayton.   Tuesday preferably to get the nervous game out of the way the first night 

[johnsoniu]

4 minutes ago, RaceToTheTop said:

Marquette will win.

And cover the 4.5 pt spread, exactly what I was afraid of.

Now I have to put my tin foil hat on and scream it’s all rigged!

[FortWayneHoosier]

8 minutes ago, johnsoniu said:

And cover the 4.5 pt spread, exactly what I was afraid of.

Now I have to put my tin foil hat on and scream it’s all rigged!

After this week so far I’m with you. 

[Hovadipo]

13 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

I’ve watched enough of the bubble.  Put ISU in and call it a day.   Put them in Dayton.   Tuesday preferably to get the nervous game out of the way the first night 

Won’t be able to pull off a Wednesday trip so count me in on hoping for Tuesday also. 

[RaceToTheTop]

17 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

I’ve watched enough of the bubble.  Put ISU in and call it a day.   Put them in Dayton.   Tuesday preferably to get the nervous game out of the way the first night 

How about St. John's v New Mexico in a play in game.  Story writes itself.  Pitino v Pitino Jr.

[Uspshoosier]

5 minutes ago, RaceToTheTop said:

How about St. John's v New Mexico in a play in game.  Story writes itself.  Pitino v Pitino Jr.

As long as ISU makes it as well I’m down to watch that game as well 

[RaceToTheTop]

Quad 2 win today.  IU now has 4 quad one wins and 6 quad twos.  Entering today, only 20 teams had at least 4 quad 1 wins and 10 quad 1 + quad 2.  That number would have increased today, but still probably like 25 teams with 4 Q1 and 10 Q1 + Q2.   Efficiency metrics are what killed IU's shot.

[rcbowla]

2 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

As long as ISU makes it as well I’m down to watch that game as well 

You are as level headed a fan as I know. Gun to head...ISU get in? My bias says yes but my mind says no. Also you're the only the bracketologist I can ask lol

[Uspshoosier]

Just now, rcbowla said:

You are as level headed a fan as I know. Gun to head...ISU get in? My bias says yes but my mind says no. Also you're the only the bracketologist I can ask lol

It’s going to be really close.   Need Colorado to lose to Utah tonight and if FAU won their conference tourney that would help out.    History isn’t favorable for mid majors for at-large bids but it does happen.     I missed Belmont in 2019 when they got an at large when everyone had them out.   So im hoping  this committee values isus resume like they did belmonts.  Going to be razor close 

[Uspshoosier]

MWC delivering at 2 am.    New Mexico up 7 with 1:12 to go 

[RaceToTheTop]

5 hours ago, Uspshoosier said:

MWC delivering at 2 am.    New Mexico up 7 with 1:12 to go 

That’s probably not great for Indiana state.Boise State was safe but New Mexico firmly on the bubble

[RaceToTheTop]

6 hours ago, rcbowla said:

You are as level headed a fan as I know. Gun to head...ISU get in? My bias says yes but my mind says no. Also you're the only the bracketologist I can ask lol

Really good net, weak sos.  Think if they don’t get in it will be because 22 of their 27 wins were Q3 and Q4 and they only had one Q1 win.

Havent looked — @UspshoosierDo they have any wins against teams safely in outside of Drake who won the tourney?

[str8baller]

7 hours ago, RaceToTheTop said:

Quad 2 win today.  IU now has 4 quad one wins and 6 quad twos.  Entering today, only 20 teams had at least 4 quad 1 wins and 10 quad 1 + quad 2.  That number would have increased today, but still probably like 25 teams with 4 Q1 and 10 Q1 + Q2.   Efficiency metrics are what killed IU's shot.

It’ll be interesting at least if IU wins against Nebraska. I believe everyone that says they’re not in, but they’ll arguably have the gross wins. It’ll be interesting in that everyone will have to explain efficiency metrics to the common fan. 

[Uspshoosier]

40 minutes ago, RaceToTheTop said:

Really good net, weak sos.  Think if they don’t get in it will be because 22 of their 27 wins were Q3 and Q4 and they only had one Q1 win.

Havent looked — @UspshoosierDo they have any wins against teams safely in outside of Drake who won the tourney?

They don’t.  It will all come down what committee want to do with them.   
 

In 2019 56 out of 195 bracketologist had Belmont in 

in 2019 182 out of 195 bracketologist had TCU in 

 Belmont was in and TCU was out and I was someone who had Belmont out as well 

[Demo]

23 minutes ago, str8baller said:

It’ll be interesting at least if IU wins against Nebraska. I believe everyone that says they’re not in, but they’ll arguably have the gross wins. It’ll be interesting in that everyone will have to explain efficiency metrics to the common fan. 

Hell, explain them to me. The idea that playing poorly while winning in November mitigates playing well and winning against better teams in March will never not be funny to me. And the idea that IU is still something like 15 places in the NET behind Maryland is a pretty ugly outlier.

[Uspshoosier]

30 minutes ago, Demo said:

Hell, explain them to me. The idea that playing poorly while winning in November mitigates playing well and winning against better teams in March will never not be funny to me. And the idea that IU is still something like 15 places in the NET behind Maryland is a pretty ugly outlier.

That’s why there isn’t 1 metric the committee looks at.    Predictives metrics try to predict a likely outcome based on how teams preformed all year.    You can argue the NET is too heavy in the predictive side of things since it’s suppose to be results based and predictive.   It needs to be somewhere in between the 2.   Results based metrics don’t get payed attention enough throughout the year fans and they are just as important on a team sheet.    IUs SOR is 51and KPI is 64 while Marylands SOR 92 and KPI is 98.    Simple way to look at it is Results based metrics get you selected while the predictive metrics will be used for seeding. Sorry   If I confused you more.   NET needs tweaking but so does about every metric that is used.   

[str8baller]

9 minutes ago, Demo said:

Hell, explain them to me. The idea that playing poorly while winning in November mitigates playing well and winning against better teams in March will never not be funny to me. And the idea that IU is still something like 15 places in the NET behind Maryland is a pretty ugly outlier.

I’m actually sympathetic to the argument. Every system has outliers. (Have I done my rant about Kenpom calling his outlier rating “luck” yet….no?…. Remind me sometime. ).  While I love the efficiency ratings and predictor systems, what happens on the court should ultimately matter.  
 

With that said, Indiana’s problems are two-fold there. Yes, we get dinged for not pulverizing bad opponents which seems a little unfair (why shouldn’t a coach be able to give minutes to the end of the bench if you’re still going to win?)…BUT, we also get dinged for all the bad losses. That’s more fair, imo. Blow out losses to every top team besides Kansas at home. 20 point losses to Purdue x2, and UConn and a 30pt loss to Auburn. Double digit losses to Nebraska and Penn St at home hurt.  
 

I’d have to sit down with the math and the formula to know for sure, but I bet those games kill us as much as not blowing out the cupcakes. And even the average fan can see that any decent team doesn’t rack up a bunch of 15-20+ drubbings, especially at home. 
 

 

[Uspshoosier]

17 minutes ago, Demo said:

Hell, explain them to me. The idea that playing poorly while winning in November mitigates playing well and winning against better teams in March will never not be funny to me.

Also total body of work matters. Games in November count just as much as games in March.    A team can definitely improve over the course of the year but that team still has to beat good teams.   You can throw all the metrics out and teams still have to beat tourney quality teams.  It’s awesome IU is on a 5 game winning streak to end the year but the total body of work shows they have only beat 2 tourney quality teams all year and those were at home and none of them are against protected seeds.  IU could have a NET of 35 and they just don’t have the wins to warrant an at-large bid.  Win the next 2 and let’s see where they stand against the rest of the bubble.