2026 IUFB: CHAPTER 3

[Stuhoo]

1 hour ago, Pagoda said:

Good video, thanks.

Interesting to call Josh Hoover an "old dog"... he's only 22 years old!

I'm optimistic the balanced running game, better OL, [much] better WRs, scheme, and Tino will level up Josh. Like the last several Cig QBs.

We'll see.  As for this season... if we can stay healthy and just get into the playoff... anything is possible from there.

It's a real difference when compared with their 'year before IU' stats:

Interception Rate Comparison

Quarterback (Team, Year)	Passing Attempts	Interceptions	Interception Per Passing Attempt Rate
Kurtis Rourke (Ohio, 2023)	353	5	1.42% (1 in every 70.6 attempts)
Fernando Mendoza (Cal, 2024)	386	6	1.55% (1 in every 64.3 attempts)
Josh Hoover (TCU, 2025)	413	13	3.15% (1 in every 31.8 attempts)

[Brass Cannon]

12 minutes ago, Stuhoo said:

It's a real difference when compared with their 'year before IU' stats:

Interception Rate Comparison

 

Quarterback (Team, Year)	Passing Attempts	Interceptions	Interception Per Passing Attempt Rate
Kurtis Rourke (Ohio, 2023)	353	5	1.42% (1 in every 70.6 attempts)
Fernando Mendoza (Cal, 2024)	386	6	1.55% (1 in every 64.3 attempts)
Josh Hoover (TCU, 2025)	413	13	3.15% (1 in every 31.8 attempts)

Eh I’m not too worried. Hoover was a lot better with the ball the year before.  I think it was a team problem not a Josh problem.  
 

Mendozas interception rate actually went up coming to IU. So obviously there’s alot of nuance to these stats 

[Stuhoo]

4 minutes ago, Brass Cannon said:

Eh I’m not too worried. Hoover was a lot better with the ball the year before.  I think it was a team problem not a Josh problem.  
 

Mendozas interception rate actually went up coming to IU. So obviously there’s alot of nuance to these stats 

True for Hoover in 2024 - still not as good as Mendoza at Cal or Rourke at Ohio, but better than Hoover last year:

Josh Hoover (2024, TCU): Threw 11 interceptions on 471 passing attempts, giving him an interception rate of 2.34%.

[Pagoda]

47 minutes ago, Stuhoo said:

It's a real difference when compared with their 'year before IU' stats:

Interception Rate Comparison

 

Quarterback (Team, Year)	Passing Attempts	Interceptions	Interception Per Passing Attempt Rate
Kurtis Rourke (Ohio, 2023)	353	5	1.42% (1 in every 70.6 attempts)
Fernando Mendoza (Cal, 2024)	386	6	1.55% (1 in every 64.3 attempts)
Josh Hoover (TCU, 2025)	413	13	3.15% (1 in every 31.8 attempts)

Yea, not disputing his turnover issues pre-IU.  

[Lebowski]

Look up Hoover's percentage breakdown of receiver tipped or dropped balls that resulted in picks. We'll be find folks. 

[Brass Cannon]

Just now, Lebowski said:

Look up Hoover's percentage breakdown of receiver tipped or dropped balls that resulted in picks. We'll be find folks. 

Where do I find this data.  As a data nerd I would love to know 

[Stuhoo]

22 minutes ago, Lebowski said:

Look up Hoover's percentage breakdown of receiver tipped or dropped balls that resulted in picks. We'll be find folks. 

I also think we'll be fine (and then some) , but primarily because the more a QB has to throw, the higher the interception rate tends to be. As Cig said, Hoover's new best friends are the IU running game and the IU defense. 

[Lebowski]

9 minutes ago, Brass Cannon said:

Where do I find this data.  As a data nerd I would love to know 

I watched every pick he threw last year. I'm biased so keep that in mind. 

First and foremost, his defense sucked and put him in a lot of awful situations. Second, Eric Mcalister is a dawg. 

at UNC

• Pick - WR Tipped

vs SMU

• Pick - underthrow 50/50 goal line ball

vs. ASU 

• Redzone Dropped Pick - Hit WR #7 right on the number. Like bullseye accuracy. 
• Pick into coverage

at KSU

• Pick 6 into coverage
• Pick - WR dropped/tipped

vs ISU

• Pick - 'Overthrow' but so much went down for that to happen. Slowed up route run, WR was really opened and Hoover was hurried. 
• Pick - into coverage, hurried

at BYU

• Pick 6 - WR tipped, but to be fair the ball was thrown behind the receiver
• Pick - into coverage 3rd down hurried out of pocket
   

at Houston

• 3 picks right into coverage (by far his worst game)

13 total picks
4 picks hit the receiver's hands prior to the pick.
1 pick could be blamed on a lazy route run

To be fair, he's got a lot to clean up. Mainly, his decision making. Some of these picks he could have just thrown away, much like Mendoza did when there wasn't anything there. He tries to force some throws if that makes sense. 
 

[jermhoosierfan]

18 hours ago, Lebowski said:

 

Having Hoover take the Rodgers retreat to go into the woods and stare at the trees?  I recommend that.

[OliviaPope40]

On 6/4/2026 at 4:45 PM, Lebowski said:

 

I'm just hoping to not burn holes in my parents carpet stairs. 

[Lebowski]

On 6/5/2026 at 10:19 AM, Lebowski said:

I watched every pick he threw last year. I'm biased so keep that in mind. 

First and foremost, his defense sucked and put him in a lot of awful situations. Second, Eric Mcalister is a dawg. 

at UNC

• Pick - WR Tipped

vs SMU

• Pick - underthrow 50/50 goal line ball

vs. ASU 

• Redzone Dropped Pick - Hit WR #7 right on the number. Like bullseye accuracy. 
• Pick into coverage

at KSU

• Pick 6 into coverage
• Pick - WR dropped/tipped

vs ISU

• Pick - 'Overthrow' but so much went down for that to happen. Slowed up route run, WR was really opened and Hoover was hurried. 
• Pick - into coverage, hurried

at BYU

• Pick 6 - WR tipped, but to be fair the ball was thrown behind the receiver
• Pick - into coverage 3rd down hurried out of pocket
   

at Houston

• 3 picks right into coverage (by far his worst game)

13 total picks
4 picks hit the receiver's hands prior to the pick.
1 pick could be blamed on a lazy route run

To be fair, he's got a lot to clean up. Mainly, his decision making. Some of these picks he could have just thrown away, much like Mendoza did when there wasn't anything there. He tries to force some throws if that makes sense. 
 

To add, it looks like his splits also tells a jekyll and hyde story.  21/3 home and 8/10 away. 

Hopefully our run game and defense travels well like last year.  Not having Ponds will look a lot like the Iowa game. So hopefully there's massive improvement for our corners.  

https://www.espn.com/college-football/player/splits/_/id/4685401/josh-hoover

[cthomas]

3 hours ago, Lebowski said:

To add, it looks like his splits also tells a jekyll and hyde story.  21/3 home and 8/10 away. 

Hopefully our run game and defense travels well like last year.  Not having Ponds will look a lot like the Iowa game. So hopefully there's massive improvement for our corners.  

https://www.espn.com/college-football/player/splits/_/id/4685401/josh-hoover

If Harris is who I think he is, we should be fine. We have a lot of talent and the best staff in the country to develop it.

[Lebowski]

23 hours ago, cthomas said:

If Harris is who I think he is, we should be fine. We have a lot of talent and the best staff in the country to develop it.

Ponds is one of a kind.  There's no replacement for him.  We're going to look a lot like the Iowa game defensively. It held them to 13 points where they were averaging over 20pts at home. So that doesn't mean we're going to be bad defensively. It just means we're probably going to have some closer games. Haines was able to completely ignore any help for Ponds. That won't be the case this year.  

[cthomas]

29 minutes ago, Lebowski said:

Ponds is one of a kind.  There's no replacement for him.  We're going to look a lot like the Iowa game defensively. It held them to 13 points where they were averaging over 20pts at home. So that doesn't mean we're going to be bad defensively. It just means we're probably going to have some closer games. Haines was able to completely ignore any help for Ponds. That won't be the case this year.  

Agree all day on Ponds. But, I think we enough talent back there to compensate for his loss with the development that this staff is becoming famous for. Plus I think Haines is the best in the business and will scheme what we need. Part of that is that I think our d-line is going to be even better this year. Opposing qbs aren't going to have all day to find receivers down field. Even though we lost a lot of important pieces on defense, I think the sum of what we have on the roster is going to be even better. Honestly, I worry more about the offense than the defense.

[skhoosier2]

15 hours ago, Lebowski said:

Ponds is one of a kind.  There's no replacement for him.  We're going to look a lot like the Iowa game defensively. It held them to 13 points where they were averaging over 20pts at home. So that doesn't mean we're going to be bad defensively. It just means we're probably going to have some closer games. Haines was able to completely ignore any help for Ponds. That won't be the case this year.  

This is where I am at.  We will have to double cover the best WR ie JSmith this year vs having Ponds and letting him single cover.  The secondary is where I am most concerned about our D.  

Our running game will be stellar again.  We will go as far as Hoover can take us.  His interception rate is concerning for sure compared to Rourke/Mendoza but I do think he will be much more prepared for what's coming given the processes in place/film he will be needing to watch vs what he likely did at TCU.  He also will face much better competition/defenses in the B1G so it will be interesting to see how he adjusts to that.  Coaching matters.  I do think Witten brought in some good things that helped Mendoza that Tino didn't have in place. I think the X factor that will be missing is Mendoza's ability to shake things off and shine brightest in the biggest moments.

[southsidehoosier]

 

[rayl456]

10 minutes ago, southsidehoosier said:

 

Thanks, ss.

[DChoosier]

I was listening to an IU podcast today and was surprised to hear that 11 of this upcoming season projected starters are Tom Allen recruits.  
Without thinking it through I would have guessed maybe 3 or so.

[Pagoda]

6 minutes ago, DChoosier said:

I was listening to an IU podcast today and was surprised to hear that 11 of this upcoming season projected starters are Tom Allen recruits.  
Without thinking it through I would have guessed maybe 3 or so.

Something I wonder about with team building is how much is great scouting and how much is a staff/system that can get a lot out of almost anyone.

The former Cig gets a lot of attention for, but I think the latter is just as important.

[Brass Cannon]

That’s such an intriguing point. TA clearly didn’t leave a bare cupboard but he like so many IU coaches before him simply didn’t know how to develop folks or what to do with them