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Posted

I thought the inbound pass was going to be picked.  It looked like a tight window to lead the receiver enough to clear the defender while keeping it in play.  That pass was just as important as the shot.  Nice execution.

 

I agree. Things might have turned out different if they didn't press the inbound play.

Posted
57 minutes ago, Stuhoo said:

Not sure it has been discussed thoroughly just how bad Todd Golden's defensive decisions were for the possession of Iowa's winning score last weekend.

Iowa inbounds down two with 8.9 seconds remaining.

  1. Golden has three.. yes THREE defenders in the backcourt.
  • One on them is guarding the in-bounder!
    • Guarding the in-bounder is a 6'4" backup guard, when Florida has Reuben Chinyelu, a 6'10" national defensive player of the year candidate parked on the bench.
  • Florida Guard Xavian Lee is tightly guarding Iowa 6'7" freshman forward Sage, who Florida should very much want to catch the ball.
  • Fland is guarding Stirtz; Iowa clearly wants to get the ball to Stirtz, not Sage.

image.png

 

          2. Stirtz, as expected, curls toward Sage to pick up a screen.

  • Fland goes under the screen, thereby not putting himself between Stirtz and the basket.
  • As Fland gets beaten, Lee does not switch; he lets Stirtz fly by:

image.png

 

image.png

Which allows Stirtz to catch on the dead run just past the backcourt three point line. AND? it's on. A three on two fast break for Iowa:

image.png

Haugh and Condon on Florida are guarding three players. Haugh steps up to Stirtz; with the ball and the best shooter of the three. Stirtz makes the easiest pass ever to the near corner.

image.png

For the widest of wide open threes imaginable. Game over.

image.png

 

This is insanely horrifically bad scheme and strategy every step of the way.

Golden's explanation? UF was trying to foul in the backcourt to force Iowa to tie the game from the line. NO YOU WEREN'T - Todd Golden is lying, because fouling up two when the other team is in the double bonus would be (if possible) even worse strategy.

Aye. Caramba.

 

Per KenPom your odds of winning do go up by a few percent of you foul.  I checked with AI and it confirmed that is accurate.

Posted

I didn't think Golden was all that last year while they were drooling all over him.  He put together one helluva team to win it all, and he deserves credit for that and for getting the job done.  He still has a lot to learn.

Posted
1 hour ago, jermhoosierfan said:

I didn't think Golden was all that last year while they were drooling all over him.  He put together one helluva team to win it all, and he deserves credit for that and for getting the job done.  He still has a lot to learn.

They won the SEC by 3 games this year. Upsets happen. They had a pretty flawed backcourt this year and I thought he did a nice job getting them straightened out for the most part. 

Posted

I don't think Golden was lying. He was really trying to foul, and I think that's why Fland was so desperate to deny Stirtz. They wanted to make someone else catch the inbound and foul him immediately.

Kenpom article on fouling up 2, including a reference to Golden at San Francisco:

https://kenpom.com/blog/the-guide-to-fouling-when-leading-or-tied/

edit: the article is actually co-written by Pomeroy, and current Florida assistant Jonathan Safir

Posted
4 hours ago, Kentuckysucks said:

Per KenPom your odds of winning do go up by a few percent of you foul.  I checked with AI and it confirmed that is accurate.

 

22 minutes ago, Shooter said:

I don't think Golden was lying. He was really trying to foul, and I think that's why Fland was so desperate to deny Stirtz. They wanted to make someone else catch the inbound and foul him immediately.

Kenpom article on fouling up 2, including a reference to Golden at San Francisco:

https://kenpom.com/blog/the-guide-to-fouling-when-leading-or-tied/

edit: the article is actually co-written by Pomeroy, and current Florida assistant Jonathan Safir

Great stuff!!

Based on the chart from the article, with UF approximately 70% pre-game likely to win, Iowa a strong FT shooting team, and double bonus in effect, they were squarely in the “Don’t Foul” territory:

image.png

Posted
6 minutes ago, Stuhoo said:

 

Great stuff!!

Based on the chart from the article, with UF approximately 70% pre-game likely to win, Iowa a strong FT shooting team, and double bonus in effect, they were squarely in the “Don’t Foul” territory:

image.png

Yea, in general I love when coaches think outside the box like this, but I think they outsmarted themselves this time. The real life outcome was something that maybe didn't even show up in their analysis - deciding to foul does not guarantee that your players will execute it correctly.

Based on the chart, only Manyawu is a bad enough FT shooter to think about fouling. I can't remember if he was even on the floor.

Posted
6 minutes ago, Shooter said:

Yea, in general I love when coaches think outside the box like this, but I think they outsmarted themselves this time. The real life outcome was something that maybe didn't even show up in their analysis - deciding to foul does not guarantee that your players will execute it correctly.

Based on the chart, only Manyawu is a bad enough FT shooter to think about fouling. I can't remember if he was even on the floor.

He was not on the floor.

Posted
On 3/24/2026 at 4:33 PM, BA47591 said:

I will hold out my overall McCollum evaluation until the end of year one without Stirtz. 

I'd consider some early action on IU finishing higher than Iowa in the Big Ten next year. 

Gotta set realistic goals, finish ahead of Iowa is a start. I live in Iowa so I respect this. 

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