2026-27 Roster/Portal/how to fix the roster?

[AH1971]

28 minutes ago, Asha’man said:

To add to that, if the rumors are true, the NIL budget is increased for next year to 12.5 from 10. So we will have roughly 9.5 million for 5 portals and the 3 freshmen. The 3 freshmen using ChatGPT to get some averages for freshmen nil expectations based on rankings will collectively be around 1.2. Leaving Carr and DeVries an estimated 8.3 million for the portal. 

So $8.3 million for about 4-6 portal players vs $10 million for 12 players last year?

How is this possible @WayneFleekHoosier

[Home Jersey]

Regardless of whether the rumor about an additional 2.5M is true, there's more than enough money to add 5 quality players. More money should make it easier to get the guys the staff wants. Hopefully they want the right guys.

[str8baller]

8 hours ago, HoosierHoopster said:

Agree except if you’re questioning the money paid to Wilkerson

No, Wilkerson presents the opposite problem: he’s producing more than he’s paid. You get his production we’ll likely have to spend more.  But that’s fine, some guys will pan out better and some worse.
 

I listed him because realistically those our are main guys money-wise (as reported) who represent the biggest pool of money we have to replace. It’ll be easy to replace the other guys and hard to replace Wilkerson. But he still has to be replaced and it could cost serious money to replace that kind of production. 

[str8baller]

1 hour ago, Asha’man said:

To add to that, if the rumors are true, the NIL budget is increased for next year to 12.5 from 10. So we will have roughly 9.5 million for 5 portals and the 3 freshmen. The 3 freshmen using ChatGPT to get some averages for freshmen nil expectations based on rankings will collectively be around 1.2. Leaving Carr and DeVries an estimated 8.3 million for the portal. 

I would guess that kind of increase will be par for the course for most of the teams in the top 25 of spenders. Who knows though? It is a moving target.

I do think IU thought they were at the top at $6mil with Woody and that giving CDD 10 was generous. It seems though that the market exploded and at least 10 (maybe more) other teams went to 10+ million. My personal opinion based on nothing is that an additional $2mil next year is more of an “inflation tax” than a substantive bump. 

[WayneFleekHoosier]

43 minutes ago, AH1971 said:

So $8.3 million for about 4-6 portal players vs $10 million for 12 players last year?

How is this possible @WayneFleekHoosier

 

43 minutes ago, AH1971 said:

So $8.3 million for about 4-6 portal players vs $10 million for 12 players last year?

How is this possible @WayneFleekHoosier

It’s not definitive and it’s still the same. The end of the bench guys came cheap.  Last year.  And retaining end of the bench guys will be equally cheap this year.  Our 5 non playing players this year didn’t eat up much budget as it is.  

[AH1971]

1 hour ago, WayneFleekHoosier said:

 

It’s not definitive and it’s still the same. The end of the bench guys came cheap.  Last year.  And retaining end of the bench guys will be equally cheap this year.  Our 5 non playing players this year didn’t eat up much budget as it is.  

It’s not the same. We vastly overpaid for Conerway and Bailey this year. There’s a chance that guys 6-9 on the bench this next year are collectively making equal or less than what those two made this year. Reality is that IU has to “pay” for 3 high end portal guys this year and then supplement 2-3 complimentary/depth pieces. IU has a larger budget and needs less players (from the portal).

[Home Jersey]

If Ristic couldn't crack the rotation on this team as a 21 year old with three years of pro experience, I have a tough time picturing him ever being much of a contributor here.

I think Drake is unlikely to be much more than a "break the glass in case of emergency" type of ball handler.

Seems like the plan with Andrej was always to redshirt. I'm most curious about him.

Harris, another wildcard... he would be a RS sophomore next year and has been injured his entire time here so no idea if he can do anything at this level. Sometimes it just doesn't work out, though maybe the staff believes he can contribute?

I'd think for roster balance purposes, you'd want to send one guard and one big out so you can add 5 portal players. Flip side, the guards are much less interesting to me and keeping both bigs means one of them is probably getting at least some minutes next year. So you'd have to count on them somewhat. 

We probably need two starter quality big guys IMO. A true C and a guy who can play the 4 or the 5. We need a starting backcourt, with PAM off the bench. Probably need another ball handler? 

[AH1971]

-3 freshman $300-400k

-Miles/Sisley $400-500k

-Dorn as potential 5th starter/6th man $500-750k

From that group alone you potentially have a starter and 2-3 key depth/rotation pieces and collectively have only spent $2-3mil. Against a $12mil budget, you have $9-10 million to add 5, maybe 6 players depending on how the staff feel about Drake and Harris who will command very little. You have enough to buy an elite big ($2.5-3mil), an elite guard ($2.5-3mil) a 2nd really good guard ($1.5-2mil), a serviceable backup big ($500-750k), and a 4 man.

[CSP]

1 hour ago, Home Jersey said:

If Ristic couldn't crack the rotation on this team as a 21 year old with three years of pro experience, I have a tough time picturing him ever being much of a contributor here.

I think Drake is unlikely to be much more than a "break the glass in case of emergency" type of ball handler.

Seems like the plan with Andrej was always to redshirt. I'm most curious about him.

Harris, another wildcard... he would be a RS sophomore next year and has been injured his entire time here so no idea if he can do anything at this level. Sometimes it just doesn't work out, though maybe the staff believes he can contribute?

I'd think for roster balance purposes, you'd want to send one guard and one big out so you can add 5 portal players. Flip side, the guards are much less interesting to me and keeping both bigs means one of them is probably getting at least some minutes next year. So you'd have to count on them somewhat. 

We probably need two starter quality big guys IMO. A true C and a guy who can play the 4 or the 5. We need a starting backcourt, with PAM off the bench. Probably need another ball handler? 

I feel Harris is by far the most promising part of this group, granted... it wasn't P4-- but his rebounding rate was well above average. 

He can shoot it a little bit, and he was only an 18-19yr old playing LAST year against plenty of 22+ yr olds... That gap will be significantly lessened, age wise, by the start of next season. 

[Asha’man]

I think we have enough money I’d rather them try and land 2 elite players, PG and SG/Wing. Then get a defensive athletic center. Fill the rest with capable big ten caliber bench players. Won’t be ideal but I don’t think we see ideal for a couple more years yet. 
 

After listening to the Ryan Carr interview from a week or so ago, I’m very encouraged by his addition and role. I think he has the right mindset. High school recruiting is like the draft and the portal is free agency. You typically over spend in free agency. So we need to over spend for a few years until our high school recruits get to be upperclassmen. I don’t think we are targeting the 5 star 1 and dones. I keep hearing about this sweet spot of 30-100 range in ranking. Guys with big upside and skill but will stick around 3-4 years. They come in cheaper and then when they are more developed you pay them more. 

[CSP]

11 minutes ago, Asha’man said:

I think we have enough money I’d rather them try and land 2 elite players, PG and SG/Wing. Then get a defensive athletic center. Fill the rest with capable big ten caliber bench players. Won’t be ideal but I don’t think we see ideal for a couple more years yet. 
 

After listening to the Ryan Carr interview from a week or so ago, I’m very encouraged by his addition and role. I think he has the right mindset. High school recruiting is like the draft and the portal is free agency. You typically over spend in free agency. So we need to over spend for a few years until our high school recruits get to be upperclassmen. I don’t think we are targeting the 5 star 1 and dones. I keep hearing about this sweet spot of 30-100 range in ranking. Guys with big upside and skill but will stick around 3-4 years. They come in cheaper and then when they are more developed you pay them more. 

I hope we just trust our own eyes, ears vs worrying about what 247/On3 slaps on a recruit ranking wise. 

Braden Smith - wasn't ranked on 247 and #198 composite--- rated the #9 player in Indiana lol..rated the #33 PG in HIS CLASS... 

Keaton Wagler- #150 on 247, #261 composite 

Ryan Conwell https://247sports.com/player/ryan-conwell-46118010/high-school-268570/... 

 

The list goes on and on. Cignetti's best skill is him and his staff's ability to scout. Basketball should be no different. 

[CSP]

Sam Alexis last 13 games are pretty much all you need from a center spot... 

25MPG- 11ppg 5r 2blks +A/T ratio ---72% FGs

 

Especially his last 8 games--27MPG  13p 5r 2bs A/T ratio 3:1    73%FGs     

[Home Jersey]

38 minutes ago, CSP said:

I hope we just trust our own eyes, ears vs worrying about what 247/On3 slaps on a recruit ranking wise. 

Braden Smith - wasn't ranked on 247 and #198 composite--- rated the #9 player in Indiana lol..rated the #33 PG in HIS CLASS... 

Keaton Wagler- #150 on 247, #261 composite 

Ryan Conwell https://247sports.com/player/ryan-conwell-46118010/high-school-268570/... 

 

The list goes on and on. Cignetti's best skill is him and his staff's ability to scout. Basketball should be no different. 

Very much agree in principle that the ability to scout should be one of the staff's best skills. Not sure that it is (don't think they're terrible at it either though, necessarily) and that's where Carr should be helpful IMO.

Woody seemed to rely on rankings, we definitely didn't with this bunch. The data suggests DDV didn't really do more or less with the talent he had - just basically shot par. With Woody, we were doing less with more.

Filling 5 spots is easier than filling 13 so whether the money is the same or the difference is marginal, I think it will be allocated better this time around. 

[jermhoosierfan]

2 minutes ago, Home Jersey said:

Very much agree in principle that the ability to scout should be one of the staff's best skills. Not sure that it is (don't think they're terrible at it either though, necessarily) and that's where Carr should be helpful IMO.

Woody seemed to rely on rankings, we definitely didn't with this bunch. The data suggests DDV didn't really do more or less with the talent he had - just basically shot par. With Woody, we were doing less with more.

Filling 5 spots is easier than filling 13 so whether the money is the same or the difference is marginal, I think it will be allocated better this time around. 

With a full staff working from their offices instead of one coach working from a table in the lunch room, they should be able to target what they need and who they want.  That can make a huge difference just right there.

[Asha’man]

41 minutes ago, CSP said:

I hope we just trust our own eyes, ears vs worrying about what 247/On3 slaps on a recruit ranking wise. 

Braden Smith - wasn't ranked on 247 and #198 composite--- rated the #9 player in Indiana lol..rated the #33 PG in HIS CLASS... 

Keaton Wagler- #150 on 247, #261 composite 

Ryan Conwell https://247sports.com/player/ryan-conwell-46118010/high-school-268570/... 

 

The list goes on and on. Cignetti's best skill is him and his staff's ability to scout. Basketball should be no different. 

I agree with this. I think there needs to be a profile for each position on the court they are trying to land. Then go land the pieces that fit this. It’s what Painter does, Dusty May is great at talent evaluation and how it fits the team, Wisconsin does this well.

 

I learned but need to verify still that IU will be the 2nd team with a GM for basketball in the Big Ten. The other team is Michigan. As of a week or 2 ago all the top 5 teams in the country had GM’s. The rest of the ranked teams didn’t. The conclusion that was made was elite teams are operating at a new/higher level in this era bc they have the correct structure. Some programs have NBA players as ceremonial GM’s. Those shouldn’t count. Steph Curry isn’t scouting and singing players at Davidson but is their GM. LOL. Duke has had a GM for several years, same with Florida, Arizona, and I think UCONN. 

[Home Jersey]

5 minutes ago, jermhoosierfan said:

With a full staff working from their offices instead of one coach working from a table in the lunch room, they should be able to target what they need and who they want.  That can make a huge difference just right there.

Totally agree.

Last year, it seemed like we could get "top" guys like Conwell and Dix on campus but stuck to our guns when it came time to make best and final offers. Hopefully the guys we prioritize early this time, we are willing to pay top dollar for and then Carr / staff can find 2 or 3 underrated players that are good value and have multiple years of eligibility.

Portal will make for another interesting offseason. 

[Asha’man]

2 minutes ago, Home Jersey said:

Totally agree.

Last year, it seemed like we could get "top" guys like Conwell and Dix on campus but stuck to our guns when it came time to make best and final offers. Hopefully the guys we prioritize early this time, we are willing to pay top dollar for and then Carr / staff can find 2 or 3 underrated players that are good value and have multiple years of eligibility.

Portal will make for another interesting offseason. 

I think having that staff settled and be able to work on deals now will help. We were behind the 8 ball last year imo. To me there is no excuses this portal. I’m feeling confident that we can have a top 25 team next year. They just have to get the pieces together. They have the resources. I want to see IU ranked all year again, it’s been so long since being ranked was just a foregone conclusion. 

[Uspshoosier]

Just now, Home Jersey said:

Last year, it seemed like we could get "top" guys like Conwell and Dix on campus but stuck to our guns when it came time to make best and final offers

They swung for the fences off the bat with 2 kids that were not going to go to IU from the jump.   Conwell they had to go after just because but he was going to Louisville.   Kelsey tried to get him the year before but got a late start.   Once he went into the portal this year Kelsey had the jump on everyone since he is basically from that area or have a ton a family from that area.    Dix they had to go after because of the relationship DeVries had with him but that kid was going to go where ever was closest to his mom that was battling cancer and sadly she lost her battle with cancer during the season.    UConn had a moment of silence at their home game against Creighton this year 

[Home Jersey]

Just now, Asha’man said:

I think having that staff settled and be able to work on deals now will help. We were behind the 8 ball last year imo. To me there is no excuses this portal. I’m feeling confident that we can have a top 25 team next year. They just have to get the pieces together. They have the resources. I want to see IU ranked all year again, it’s been so long since being ranked was just a foregone conclusion. 

Completely agree! 

Clark is regarded as our best assistant, he joined too late to make a difference in the portal IMO. So keeping an eye out for players with existing connections to him especially.  

[Home Jersey]

1 minute ago, Uspshoosier said:

They swung for the fences off the bat with 2 kids that were not going to go to IU from the jump.   Conwell they had to go after just because but he was going to Louisville.   Kelsey tried to get him the year before but got a late start.   Once he went into the portal this year Kelsey had the jump on everyone since he is basically from that area or have a ton a family from that area.    Dix they had to go after because of the relationship DeVries had with him but that kid was going to go where ever was closest to his mom that was battling cancer and sadly she lost her battle with cancer during the season.    UConn had a moment of silence at their home game against Creighton this year 

Yeah, it was probably never going to happen with either of them. Kind of makes me wonder why the staff prioritized them enough to get them on campus before any other visitors.