2025 IUFB Season

[NashvilleHoosier 3,922]

On 10/28/2025 at 12:35 PM, Hovadipo said:

I don’t know how valid this is, just remember you asking the question and it feels right. 

Ok since I’m incapable of not thinking about worst case scenarios, what happens if we lose to PSU (I know, just win baby) and end up 11-1? For a spot in Indy, possible 1 loss teams, we have the tiebreaker covered against Iowa and Oregon. I believe we have the tiebreaker covered against USC with record against common opponents being 5-0 to their 4-1. Assuming the Iowa/Oregon/USC round robin about to happen ends with all three taking another L, The one scenario I can’t quite work out is if Michigan beats OSU and it’s us and those 2 with 1 loss. UM obviously has the tiebreaker against OSU, and I think OSU would have the tiebreaker against us with record against common opponents. With Michigan, we both have 1 loss and would be 4-0 against common opponents. I think it would come down to their win over OSU vs our win vs Oregon. Everyone still with me here? Cool. So, what if Oregon is also at 1 loss? My brain breaks at this point. It could come down to who is our 2nd best win vs. Michigan’s 2nd best. But also as I type this I’m realizing Oregon would also have the tiebreaker over Michigan by common opponent record and their win over USC. So that 4 way tie of 1 loss teams, I don’t know, does that come down the conference winning percentage of all opponents? Sheesh. 
 

Disclaimer: high likelihood I have something wrong here. 

[Hovadipo 63,150]

28 minutes ago, NashvilleHoosier said:

Ok since I’m incapable of not thinking about worst case scenarios, what happens if we lose to PSU (I know, just win baby) and end up 11-1? For a spot in Indy, possible 1 loss teams, we have the tiebreaker covered against Iowa and Oregon. I believe we have the tiebreaker covered against USC with record against common opponents being 5-0 to their 4-1. Assuming the Iowa/Oregon/USC round robin about to happen ends with all three taking another L, The one scenario I can’t quite work out is if Michigan beats OSU and it’s us and those 2 with 1 loss. UM obviously has the tiebreaker against OSU, and I think OSU would have the tiebreaker against us with record against common opponents. With Michigan, we both have 1 loss and would be 4-0 against common opponents. I think it would come down to their win over OSU vs our win vs Oregon. Everyone still with me here? Cool. So, what if Oregon is also at 1 loss? My brain breaks at this point. It could come down to who is our 2nd best win vs. Michigan’s 2nd best. But also as I type this I’m realizing Oregon would also have the tiebreaker over Michigan by common opponent record and their win over USC. So that 4 way tie of 1 loss teams, I don’t know, does that come down the conference winning percentage of all opponents? Sheesh. 
 

Disclaimer: high likelihood I have something wrong here. 

I think I plugged in your whole scenario correctly here. This is my favorite basketball website and they have football now. 

https://bball.notnothing.net/bracket_cloud.php?conf=big10fb

[NashvilleHoosier 3,922]

1 hour ago, Hovadipo said:

I think I plugged in your whole scenario correctly here. This is my favorite basketball website and they have football now. 

https://bball.notnothing.net/bracket_cloud.php?conf=big10fb

Ah, nice. Didn’t realize they did football as well. The other scenario I was curious about out is if Oregon also ends with 1 loss. Unfortunately we are out in that one too. Though both of these are extremely unlikely scenarios. 

 

[Hovadipo 63,150]

9 minutes ago, NashvilleHoosier said:

Ah, nice. Didn’t realize they did football as well. The other scenario I was curious about out is if Oregon also ends with 1 loss. Unfortunately we are out in that one too. Though both of these are extremely unlikely scenarios. 

 

I’d love to get a shot in Indy, but man that bye before the CFP might be worth its weight in gold too. I don’t imagine a 4-way tie for the B1G would hurt our seeding too much. 

[Brass Cannon 26,240]

7 minutes ago, Hovadipo said:

I’d love to get a shot in Indy, but man that bye before the CFP might be worth its weight in gold too. I don’t imagine a 4-way tie for the B1G would hurt our seeding too much. 

I doubt we get a top 4 seed if we don’t go to the championship game. So either way should be about the same gap in time between games 

[Hovadipo 63,150]

10 minutes ago, Brass Cannon said:

I doubt we get a top 4 seed if we don’t go to the championship game. So either way should be about the same gap in time between games 

We could theoretically play in the Big Ten championship game, lose, and still not get a CFP bye at 11-2. Conference championship games are pointless and I’m fine not playing in it. 

[CSP 12,354]

33 minutes ago, Hovadipo said:

I’d love to get a shot in Indy, but man that bye before the CFP might be worth its weight in gold too. I don’t imagine a 4-way tie for the B1G would hurt our seeding too much. 

Dec 6 is BTCG 

Dec 20 in CFP Rd 1

Dec 31 is RD 2

 

Get in the title game, play OSU well.. I don't see how we'd drop from the T4. 

[Hovadipo 63,150]

9 minutes ago, CSP said:

Dec 6 is BTCG 

Dec 20 in CFP Rd 1

Dec 31 is RD 2

 

Get in the title game, play OSU well.. I don't see how we'd drop from the T4. 

“Because we said so.”

-CFP committee, when they drop us from the top 4. 

[Brass Cannon 26,240]

The key fair point.  Yeah if we drop PSU to probably better strategy to miss championship game. But we are going to trounce Penn state so no biggee

[steubenhoosier 2,009]

1 hour ago, Hovadipo said:

We could theoretically play in the Big Ten championship game, lose, and still not get a CFP bye at 11-2. Conference championship games are pointless and I’m fine not playing in it. 

Where is loss #2 ? 
Cig has changed the mindset and the culture of the program.

Fanbase, it appears, has a ways to go on that.

[Hovadipo 63,150]

Just now, steubenhoosier said:

Where is loss #2 ? 
Cig has changed the mindset and the culture of the program.

Fanbase, it appears, has a ways to go on that.

Yeah man, get all the way lost with that BS. Just talking hypotheticals. 

[steubenhoosier 2,009]

5 minutes ago, Hovadipo said:

Yeah man, get all the way lost with that BS. Just talking hypotheticals. 

Yup

[Hoosierfan2017 25,378]

I want to win the conference, but I also don’t want a first round bye. Is that crazy? 25 days is a ton of time between games. Last year might’ve been a fluke, but all four teams with byes lost last year in the quarterfinals. Not a perfect comparison because Boise State and ASU had byes despite clearly not being top 4 teams, but still. 

[BtownStrength 1,771]

8 minutes ago, Hoosierfan2017 said:

I want to win the conference, but I also don’t want a first round bye. Is that crazy? 25 days is a ton of time between games. Last year might’ve been a fluke, but all four teams with byes lost last year in the quarterfinals. Not a perfect comparison because Boise State and ASU had byes despite clearly not being top 4 teams, but still. 

I see the appeal of avoiding a long layoff, but with the way the injuries have been adding up, an extra few weeks to heal physically would be nice. I trust this coaching staff (over many others) to have them mentally prepared even with a longer break.

[Brass Cannon 26,240]

12 minutes ago, Hoosierfan2017 said:

I want to win the conference, but I also don’t want a first round bye. Is that crazy? 25 days is a ton of time between games. Last year might’ve been a fluke, but all four teams with byes lost last year in the quarterfinals. Not a perfect comparison because Boise State and ASU had byes despite clearly not being top 4 teams, but still. 

While that might be the case iirc advanced analytics had the team that won higher in all cases 

[go iu bb 10,182]

12 hours ago, Hoosierfan2017 said:

I want to win the conference, but I also don’t want a first round bye. Is that crazy? 25 days is a ton of time between games. Last year might’ve been a fluke, but all four teams with byes lost last year in the quarterfinals. Not a perfect comparison because Boise State and ASU had byes despite clearly not being top 4 teams, but still. 

I hear what you're saying and I've had that same thought. However, Boise State and ASU (undeservingly) getting byes also messed up the rest of the seeding so Oregon and Georgia played better teams in the second round than they would have with proper seeding. Those two played the two teams that eventually met in the finals. I remember the discussions about how getting a 5 or 6 seed last year might be better than getting a bye. Crazy. The point is, it should be to a team's advantage to get a bye, and it should be this year.

[DChoosier 10,364]

13 hours ago, Hoosierfan2017 said:

I want to win the conference, but I also don’t want a first round bye. Is that crazy? 25 days is a ton of time between games. Last year might’ve been a fluke, but all four teams with byes lost last year in the quarterfinals. Not a perfect comparison because Boise State and ASU had byes despite clearly not being top 4 teams, but still. 

Last year Saban commented that he would not want the first round bye as he thought it was too much time between games.

[DChoosier 10,364]

23 minutes ago, go iu bb said:

I hear what you're saying and I've had that same thought. However, Boise State and ASU (undeservingly) getting byes also messed up the rest of the seeding so Oregon and Georgia played better teams in the second round than they would have with proper seeding. Those two played the two teams that eventually met in the finals. I remember the discussions about how getting a 5 or 6 seed last year might be better than getting a bye. Crazy. The point is, it should be to a team's advantage to get a bye, and it should be this year.

If games had properly been assigned according to seeding last year IU would have hosted Boise State rather than traveled to ND…!!!!

That would have been sweet.

[Hovadipo 63,150]

On 11/1/2025 at 10:04 PM, Hovadipo said:

I’m not 100% sure on this, but I believe we still owe BTN a game, which means Wisconsin will be on there since the Purdue game was given a time slot before the season. I suppose with it being on BTN it could be just about at any time. 

Nooner on BTN. 

[jermhoosierfan 486]

31 minutes ago, Hovadipo said:

Nooner on BTN. 

Kinda shows how much Wisky has gone downhill in the last 2 seasons.