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Barrel Rick

Trent Sisley is an Outstanding Hoosier and (2025) SG - to UConn Thread

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2 hours ago, Hoosier Guy said:

That’s ridiculous.  That makes crystal ball picks worthless.  These “experts” just wait until the last minute when it’s known by everyone.  That’s stupid that anyone can change a pick at the last second.  That’s why it’s pointless.

Crystal Balls are really starting to be a thing of the past.....a lot of the most knowledgeable insiders out there have stopped bothering giving them.  It's why you don't see many.  So when you see a guy you haven't heard of give one out early it's usually to try to catch lightning in a bottle knowing that if something changes they can simply change their pick and it doesn't effect their prediction total.  And the numbers in terms of 'average days correct' on 247 aren't accurate.  The Maryland insider is listed at something like '203 average days correct', but take a look at 2025 recruits he's 'predicted':

  • Kareem Staggs to Georgia on 10/8 -- he announced for Georgia same day
  • Jaden Toombs to SMU on 9/25 -- he announced SMU same day
  • Simon Walker to Auburn on 9'24 -- he announced Auburn two days later
  • Darius Adams to U Conn  on 9/24 -- he announced U Conn on 9/30
  • Derek Dixon to UNC on 9/24 -- committed to UNC on 9/27
  • London JEmison to Alabama on 9/17 -- committed on 9/21
  • Chance Mallory to Virginia on 9/17 -- committed on 9/20
  • Keyshaun Tillery to Cincinnati on 9/17 -- committed on 9/20
  • Jayden Forsythe to Xavier on 9/17 -- committed five hours later
  • Mason Blackwood to Penn State on 9/16 -- committed on 9/18
  • Jermaine O'Neal to SMU on 9/16 -- committed on 9/18
  • Adlan Elamin to Utah State on 9/14 -- committed on 9/16
  • Hudson Greer to Creighton on 9/13 -- committed five hours later
  • Christian Jeffery to Maryland on 9/12 -- committed on 10/2
  • Austin Willford to St Joseph's on 9/11 -- committed two hours later
  • Matt Gilhool to LSU on 9/9 -- committed next day
  • Omari WItherspoon to Pitt on 9/5 -- committed 9/11
  • Ryan Crotty to Oklahoma State on 9/5 -- committed next day
  • Silas Barksdale to VCU on 9/4 -- committed next day
  • Alex Smith to Ohio State on 9/2 -- committed within an hour (247 does not count this as a correct call -- they call anything within an hour a 'zero zone' pick)
  • Matthew Able to Miami on 8/29 -- committed next day
  • Nyk Lewis to Xavier on 8/27 -- committed on 8/29
  • Malachi Moreno to UK on 8/14 -- committed on 8/16
  • Darius Acuff to to Arkansas on 7/26 -- committed same day
  • NIgel James to Marquette on 7/16 -- committed four hours later
  • Akbar Waheed to BC on 7/15 -- committed next day

So let's examine his 26 predictions -- which to be fair, were all correct:

8 of his predictions committed the same day he prediction;  4 committed the next day.  So that's 12 of the 26 'predictions' which at that point had to be obvious ones from just reading the internet.  Only ONE player committed later than a week after he made his pick and that was a player who committed to Maryland -- the team he covers.

His average days correct on picks other than the single player to Maryland for the class of 2025 is 1.6 days.  So I wouldn't worry about his pick now -- if he still saying U Conn the morning of October 23rd, maybe.  But with his pick history, I wouldn't be too concerned with picks two weeks prior to an announcement. 

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3 hours ago, Hoosierfanyuh said:

That specific guy changes his picks all the time. He put one in for Derik queen to IU at one point, not exaggerating 

Don't doubt you one bit, but I"m having trouble finding when a predictor changes their pick.  Did you find that or remember that?

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1 hour ago, RaceToTheTop said:

Suspending kids for allowing their pictures to be in a charity calendar didn't align with my values either.  A lot of where college basketball ended up today is due to the NCAA's failure to change their rigid rules in the past.  They forced this into the courts.

Dead on. Or bumper stickers. Or t-shirts. It was mind numbingly ridiculous.

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50 minutes ago, cthomas said:

Absolutely right. The NCAA has been mostly a worthless organization. Honestly, something new is needed to deal with the new reality. In my delusional world I thought that there were good guys and bad guys. Now I know that there were just varying shades of gray. The marketplace is seriously messed up in terms of how it values different occupations in my opinion. The money going to anyone to play a game or coach a game does t mesh with the needs of our world. Just my opinion, nothing else.

I used to feel the same way but ultimately the marketplace is what the marketplace is.  If someone is willing to pay an 18 year old kid $1 million +, they are worth it.....for the simple reason that someone is willing to pay it.  I'm a teacher, don't get paid much and certainly am getting paid less than many kids I taught in high school as soon as they graduate college and have their first job.  But it is what it is and while I can fight for my and other teacher's salaries to increase, I can't begrudge someone else getting paid.

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3 minutes ago, Stromboli said:

Maybe time to dust off the ol’ BTB account to weigh in!

 

Hey friendos, hope you’ve all been well. Kinda exciting season coming up, I hope to spend more time on here with you all. But for now…

 

These kids deserve to be compensated commensurate with the value they provide. Frankly they have been taken advantage of for way too long. You don’t need to look very hard to find studies discussing some of the darker sides of this imbalance. I won’t get to that. 
 

But I will repost the article that changed my mind. Really fast, my career pretty routinely requires the hiring of high level CPA’s to valuate the worth of an individual. It seems difficult and like pseudoscience until you get into it. It’s fairly reliable, and the professionals that do this work are very, very smart. 
 

So, people have tried to shed light on this issue of compensating college athletes doing these kind of value analyses; basically what is the value that a D-I basketball player brings to his university. 
 

Linking what at this point is an outdated study, but still useful for our needs, Yahoo found that the average IU men’s basketball player provides a value of $870,000 per year. And before you say “yeah but IU is the one giving him the stage and opportunity to be seen,” that is accounted for, with the university already assumed to get 51% of the total value. 
 

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/average-university-louisville-basketball-player-192239747.html

A local 5 star like Braylon or a Trayce or a Romeo obviously rockets that number higher. Why should the talent not be compensated? Who do you think should receive that value the athlete generates? Remember, the school already gets theirs. The science dept and journalism and Kinsey are all the proverbial boats rising with this tide. Why should Braylon, an adult entertainer selling tickets and jerseys and proving podcast fodder and (ahem) forum hits and TV deals not get paid?

 

I fully understand that it would be nice if Indiana kids just, gosh darn it, wanted to play basketball for their state school. It’s a fun little romantic concept with pep rallies and red barns with a hoop and dad teaching son to shoot a free throw. But this is big, big business, the money is generated, and it will go to someone regardless. If it’s not to the individual responsible for creating it, I can’t see that as anything but unjust enrichment. 
 

Yeah, the negotiations give a nasty feel to the entire transaction. But it’s not like anyone is offering to overpay the athletes. Ultimately, they are the ones getting taken advantage of. 

The Man comes around. 

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13 minutes ago, RaceToTheTop said:

Crystal Balls are really starting to be a thing of the past.....a lot of the most knowledgeable insiders out there have stopped bothering giving them.  It's why you don't see many.  So when you see a guy you haven't heard of give one out early it's usually to try to catch lightning in a bottle knowing that if something changes they can simply change their pick and it doesn't effect their prediction total.  And the numbers in terms of 'average days correct' on 247 aren't accurate.  The Maryland insider is listed at something like '203 average days correct', but take a look at 2025 recruits he's 'predicted':

  • Kareem Staggs to Georgia on 10/8 -- he announced for Georgia same day
  • Jaden Toombs to SMU on 9/25 -- he announced SMU same day
  • Simon Walker to Auburn on 9'24 -- he announced Auburn two days later
  • Darius Adams to U Conn  on 9/24 -- he announced U Conn on 9/30
  • Derek Dixon to UNC on 9/24 -- committed to UNC on 9/27
  • London JEmison to Alabama on 9/17 -- committed on 9/21
  • Chance Mallory to Virginia on 9/17 -- committed on 9/20
  • Keyshaun Tillery to Cincinnati on 9/17 -- committed on 9/20
  • Jayden Forsythe to Xavier on 9/17 -- committed five hours later
  • Mason Blackwood to Penn State on 9/16 -- committed on 9/18
  • Jermaine O'Neal to SMU on 9/16 -- committed on 9/18
  • Adlan Elamin to Utah State on 9/14 -- committed on 9/16
  • Hudson Greer to Creighton on 9/13 -- committed five hours later
  • Christian Jeffery to Maryland on 9/12 -- committed on 10/2
  • Austin Willford to St Joseph's on 9/11 -- committed two hours later
  • Matt Gilhool to LSU on 9/9 -- committed next day
  • Omari WItherspoon to Pitt on 9/5 -- committed 9/11
  • Ryan Crotty to Oklahoma State on 9/5 -- committed next day
  • Silas Barksdale to VCU on 9/4 -- committed next day
  • Alex Smith to Ohio State on 9/2 -- committed within an hour (247 does not count this as a correct call -- they call anything within an hour a 'zero zone' pick)
  • Matthew Able to Miami on 8/29 -- committed next day
  • Nyk Lewis to Xavier on 8/27 -- committed on 8/29
  • Malachi Moreno to UK on 8/14 -- committed on 8/16
  • Darius Acuff to to Arkansas on 7/26 -- committed same day
  • NIgel James to Marquette on 7/16 -- committed four hours later
  • Akbar Waheed to BC on 7/15 -- committed next day

So let's examine his 26 predictions -- which to be fair, were all correct:

8 of his predictions committed the same day he prediction;  4 committed the next day.  So that's 12 of the 26 'predictions' which at that point had to be obvious ones from just reading the internet.  Only ONE player committed later than a week after he made his pick and that was a player who committed to Maryland -- the team he covers.

His average days correct on picks other than the single player to Maryland for the class of 2025 is 1.6 days.  So I wouldn't worry about his pick now -- if he still saying U Conn the morning of October 23rd, maybe.  But with his pick history, I wouldn't be too concerned with picks two weeks prior to an announcement. 

The only time to really worry about the crystal ball picks is the day of an announcement.  That’s when the cat gets out of the bag.

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3 hours ago, Chris007 said:

I think his dad could get something that's worth a few year's salary. So he could take more time off to coach his other sons and follow Braylon around the country playing. 

Chris 007 I appreciate what you bring to this sight. Not to put you on the spot. But if you were putting a crystal ball in for Braylon what would it be ?

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7 minutes ago, Hovadipo said:

Well if it isn’t my second favorite messy sandwich on this site. 

I’m the original sandwich-themed poster and am flattered by all imposters. 

It’s been a minute but someone remind me, do I have authority to ban Stuhoo? I thought we had beef. 

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7 minutes ago, Crazy about IU said:

Chris 007 I appreciate what you bring to this sight. Not to put you on the spot. But if you were putting a crystal ball in for Braylon what would it be ?

First off I have rose colored glasses on but I have always heard that it was known by everyone that Mullins was a priority. By everyone I mean Woodson, coaches, administrators and the money guys. So our NIL offer is higher, we’re closer to home, and I think the he and the family would feel the love from alumni. So until we know for sure it’s UCONN I still think it’s going to be IU. I’m on record long ago on this thread saying it was IU. The secret unofficial visit after the UCONN visit meant something IMO. I’ve been wrong before but hopefully not this time.

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5 minutes ago, Stromboli said:

I’m the original sandwich-themed poster and am flattered by all imposters. 

It’s been a minute but someone remind me, do I have authority to ban Stuhoo? I thought we had beef. 

Dude, not only is he unbannable, his contract has so much dead cap that he is untradeable and unwaiveable. Deshaun Watson wishes he had Stu’s agent. 

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