22-23 BIG TEN Projections

[IUc2016 7,121]

Secret Scrimmages have started, exhibitions have started. We are two weeks away from ACTUAL games starting. I am a huge big ten basketball junky, and love to read/follow the other teams throughout the offseason and during the season. It seems to be a down year in comparison to the past few, but honestly that probably means the league will have more success come March as it has been underwhelming the past few years. My predictions:

1. Illinois

2. Indiana

3. Iowa

4. Purdue

5. MSU

6. Ohio State

7. Wisconsin

8. Michigan

9. Rutgers

10. Maryland

11. Penn State

12. Northwestern

13. Minnesota

14. Nebraska

I am very hopeful this season as an IU fan, I just need to see the team shoot better to become a believer. I also think the schedule is really tough for our Hoosiers in comparison to the other contenders in the league. I don't know what to think of Illinois, but they have talent and their conference schedule is cake. I am not as high on Michigan as most, their guard play is very questionable and they lost a majority of their team that finished 8th last year. I don't like Purdue's team either, but Painter has the big ten figured out and this seems like a Purdue team that will somehow find 12 wins. It will also be interesting to see how MSU does with 10 scholarship players.

Link to the Big Ten Media Poll: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Zit69-qn4_qb72B17w3Tnr8NDNCrETMN2bGvzF7117s/edit#gid=474751561

GO HOOSIERS.

[Trish 11,691]

I don’t get to follow the big ten as much as others here. But I was surprised to not see a single Top 10 team in the AP Poll. First time since the 70’s right? 
 

Woodson has the roster for a great year. I’m on the same boat as you, I don’t know who will shoot the ball consistently for this team. If we struggle shooting, the season will be short lived come March. Hopefully they show some growth in that area over the next couple of months. 

[RaceToTheTop 26,274]

Purdue will lead in the number of seven footers on the roster, right?

[Loaded Chicken Sandwich 8,777]

1. Illinois(easy freaking schedule of course thanks to the B1G being a joke)

2. Indiana

3. Michigan

4. Purdue

5. Ohio State

6. Wisconsin

7. Michigan State

8. Iowa

9. Rutgers

10. Minnesota

11. Maryland

12. Penn State

13. Nebraska

14. Northwestern

[Stuhoo 81,783]

1. Indiana - Quality depth abundanza
2. Iowa - Perkins, Murray, Pat McCaffery, and Sandoval breaks out in a big way
3. Ohio State - excellent transfers, Justice Sueing is the real deal breakout
4. Michigan - Lots of unproven players but major talent
5. Rutgers - Another big three that can shine, and Pikiell is excellent
6. Wisconsin - When will we learn. They are like clockwork competitive. Chucky is Cassius Winston 2.0
7. Illinois - Shannon and Melendez are good, but Matthew Mayer SUCKS! And an unproven freshman point guard
8. Maryland - Pretty talented plus some strong portal guys. They will surprise
9. Michigan State - Izzo with a veteran group but no big talent or alpha dog
10. Penn St - Micah can coach and the guards are quite good
11. Purdue - Replacing Ivey, Trevion, Hunter, and Stefanovich with? Nothing much at all. Cannot win in college ball without guard play. Lots and lots of defensive question marks too. Painter is portrayed as a savant but he's finished down this low before. AND, if they try to play Edey 28 mpg he has a high chance of getting injured.
12. Minny - The Morehead St transfer is good and the bigs are good. But not enough guard play to compete.
13. Nebraska - A little more transfer talent than usual but cannot overcome Hoiberg as coach
14. Northwestern - Collins has no bigs. Like... none. They will get stomped physically.

PS; this is my official line in the sand "I told you all so" (or "I missed badly on that one") post where I am the outlier in stating that: Purdue will not be a top half of the B1G team. File it away y'all!

 

[RaceToTheTop 26,274]

FWIW, here are the Bartovik projections:

1.  Indiana (11th overall).  Projected record:  22-9, 13-7 in conference

2.  Illinois (16th overall).  Projected record 22-8, 13-7 in conference

3.  Michigan State (24th overall).  Projected record 18-11, 12-8 in conference

4.  Iowa (31st overall).  Projected record:  20-10, 12-8 in conference.

5.  Purdue (32nd overall).  Projected record 19-9, 11-8 in conference (a game against Penn State hasn't been put in their schedule yet)

6.  Michiagn (38th overall).  Projected record 19-11, 12-8 in conference

7.  Maryland (50th overall).  Projected 18-12, 11-9

8.  Rutgers (56th overall).  Projected 19-12, 10-10

9.  Wisconsin (62nd overall).  Projected 16-13, 10-10

10.  Ohio State (67th overall).  Projected 15-14, 9-11

11.  Penn State (82nd overall).  Projected 15-13, 8-11 

12.  Nebraska (91st overall).  Projected 13-16, 8-12

13.  Northwestern (98th overall).  Projected 15-15, 7-13

14.  Minnesota (170th overall).  Projected 11-19, 4-16

[Alford Bailey 12,415]

5 minutes ago, RaceToTheTop said:

FWIW, here are the Bartovik projections:

1.  Indiana (11th overall).  Projected record:  22-9, 13-7 in conference

2.  Illinois (16th overall).  Projected record 22-8, 13-7 in conference

3.  Michigan State (24th overall).  Projected record 18-11, 12-8 in conference

4.  Iowa (31st overall).  Projected record:  20-10, 12-8 in conference.

5.  Purdue (32nd overall).  Projected record 19-9, 11-8 in conference (a game against Penn State hasn't been put in their schedule yet)

6.  Michiagn (38th overall).  Projected record 19-11, 12-8 in conference

7.  Maryland (50th overall).  Projected 18-12, 11-9

8.  Rutgers (56th overall).  Projected 19-12, 10-10

9.  Wisconsin (62nd overall).  Projected 16-13, 10-10

10.  Ohio State (67th overall).  Projected 15-14, 9-11

11.  Penn State (82nd overall).  Projected 15-13, 8-11 

12.  Nebraska (91st overall).  Projected 13-16, 8-12

13.  Northwestern (98th overall).  Projected 15-15, 7-13

14.  Minnesota (170th overall).  Projected 11-19, 4-16

Wow not much love for Ohio St here.

[IU Scott 2,375]

1) IU 

2) UI 

3) UM 

4) PU 

5) MSU 

6) OSU 

7) Iowa 

8) Rutgers

9) Maryland 

10) UW 

11) PSU 

12) Minnesota 

13) NW

14) Neb. 

[WayneFleekHoosier 48,623]

1. Indiana

2. Illinois

3. Michigan State

4. Michigan

5. Purdue

6. Ohio State

7. Iowa

8. Rutgers

9. Wisconsin

10. Maryland

11. Penn St

12. Minnesota

13. Nebraska

14. NW

 

 

 

Sent from my iPad using BtownBanners

 

[IUc2016 7,121]

2 hours ago, RaceToTheTop said:

FWIW, here are the Bartovik projections:

1.  Indiana (11th overall).  Projected record:  22-9, 13-7 in conference

2.  Illinois (16th overall).  Projected record 22-8, 13-7 in conference

3.  Michigan State (24th overall).  Projected record 18-11, 12-8 in conference

4.  Iowa (31st overall).  Projected record:  20-10, 12-8 in conference.

5.  Purdue (32nd overall).  Projected record 19-9, 11-8 in conference (a game against Penn State hasn't been put in their schedule yet)

6.  Michiagn (38th overall).  Projected record 19-11, 12-8 in conference

7.  Maryland (50th overall).  Projected 18-12, 11-9

8.  Rutgers (56th overall).  Projected 19-12, 10-10

9.  Wisconsin (62nd overall).  Projected 16-13, 10-10

10.  Ohio State (67th overall).  Projected 15-14, 9-11

11.  Penn State (82nd overall).  Projected 15-13, 8-11 

12.  Nebraska (91st overall).  Projected 13-16, 8-12

13.  Northwestern (98th overall).  Projected 15-15, 7-13

14.  Minnesota (170th overall).  Projected 11-19, 4-16

Bart is much lower on OSU than others. They are 32nd on Kenpom

I am in agreement with Bart on Michigan though. Lost 4 starters and the backup PG. Not sure their additions make up for much of that loss

 

[Hardwood83 4,774]

Seems pretty cautious, but reasonable. No great teams, a lot mediocre parity. Not buying Nebraska at 8-12 in league though. 

[Uspshoosier 46,327]

 

[HoosierHoopster 7,220]

6 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

 

Yeah that's my concern. We have a pretty brutal stretch run to end of regular season. Illinois' schedule is definitely easier -- however, the Illini did just lose a player to injury. 

I think we finish 2nd or 3d, solely because of the schedule, and because we're not sneaking up on anyone. But I will be happy anywhere between 1 (ecstatic) and 3.

[IUc2016 7,121]

ESPN's preview of the big ten: https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/34845769/big-ten-2022-23-conference-preview-league-national-title-drought-end

[RaceToTheTop 26,274]

On 10/24/2022 at 4:31 PM, Alford Bailey said:

Wow not much love for Ohio St here.

FWIW (which isn't much), Ohio State had their 'secret scrimmage' against Wake Forest yesterday.  Unofficially (since the results are supposed to be -- wink, wink -- not released), Wake Forest won 80-67.  Details below.  And it wasn't like OSU was holding a lot of guys out -- just had one rotation player out with an injury.

https://www.dispatch.com/story/sports/college/basketball/2022/10/24/heres-how-the-buckeyes-fared-versus-wake-forest-in-secret-scrimmage/69586221007/

[IUc2016 7,121]

44 minutes ago, RaceToTheTop said:

FWIW (which isn't much), Ohio State had their 'secret scrimmage' against Wake Forest yesterday.  Unofficially (since the results are supposed to be -- wink, wink -- not released), Wake Forest won 80-67.  Details below.  And it wasn't like OSU was holding a lot of guys out -- just had one rotation player out with an injury.

https://www.dispatch.com/story/sports/college/basketball/2022/10/24/heres-how-the-buckeyes-fared-versus-wake-forest-in-secret-scrimmage/69586221007/

Steve Forbes is a really good coach. Holtmann is…. Meh

And that is not at all based off of this secret scrimmage 

 

[HoosierFan1994 4,754]

I'll give my "official" picks soon with standings, all-conference, and awards but a few things: 

1) Illinois and Purdue, IMO, have an easier conference schedule than IU does. I won't flip out if IU does not finish first in the B1G regular season. However, they need to finish top 4 so they can get a bye. 

2) I think Maryland is extremely underrated. Kevin Willard was solid at Seton Hall. They have some nice transfers coming. 

3) Don't know if this is good or bad but the talent level in the Big Ten is down. I feel IU is head and shoulders above everyone right now. But...they have a more difficult conference schedule. It's possible they could have 3 All-B1G guys. Illinois is probably 2nd in terms of "on-paper" talent. I think many are overrating Michigan and Purdue because they have an All-American coming back. However, they don't have enough talent around them. I think Michigan State/Ohio State could easily finish top 3/4 if they have a guy that breaks out this year. Don't sleep on Rutgers or Wisconsin. 

[Stuhoo 81,783]

Rutgers’ best player, Caleb McConnell, is still not playing because of an undisclosed knee injury. 

Our B1G opener is December 3rd at Rutgers. It’s worth noting—easier conference schedules sometimes are created along the way.
 

https://www.nj.com/rutgersbasketball/2022/10/rutgers-caleb-mcconnells-injury-status-is-unclear-heading-into-start-of-2022-23-season.html

[lillurk 3,793]

I hope to do a full 14 ranking before next week but just to get some cards on the table in case I stay busy:

-I don’t think IU’s some perfect team but the consensus of all the media orgs is rarely so clear. It’s a combination of IU’s strengths and “high floor” and the rest of the conference’s weakness / unknowns. I’d pick IU.

-I hesitate to use the word “overrated” for Illinois, but I’m surprised by the general optimism. I’m bearish. Big time downside risk with defense, no Kofi, PG play. Probably still a tournament team.

-I consider UM & PU similarly: potential all-American 5, a couple other dependable pieces, potentially a spot or two they don’t figure out before their season is over.

-if you told me Iowa would have a top 75 defense, I would consider them a B1G title contender. I think they’re sneakily pretty good?

-UW: has there ever been a better likelihood of a team winning at least 9 and no more than 11?

-MSU: I know post-‘22 recruiting looks good but like Illinois…worried about downside risk. 

-RU: Pikiell is really good. Not a contender but tourney.

-OSU: I feel nothing. First round exit.

-PSU, Minn, and Maryland: better than the real cellar dwellers but not actually good.

-nw and Nebraska: racing to get their coaches fired.

[IUc2016 7,121]

Iowa scored 118 points in their exhibition and were 14-25 from three. Kris Murray and Tony Perkins  had really good games. 
 

If they can play defense on the level they did last year I think they have as good as shot as anyone to win the league.