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BlueDevil

2022 NCAA Tournament / Bracket Reveal

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11 minutes ago, TheWatShot said:

@Uspshoosier, how was Houston a 5 seed? 

They didn’t beat a projected tourney team until the conference finals.   Hard team to project.   Predictive numbers were top 5 but the lack of wins against good teams made then hard to place.  They were seeded right by their resume but clearly they would of been seeded higher if they played more tournament quality teams because they would of won some of those games.   They are good 

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19 minutes ago, TheWatShot said:

Duke shot 71% in the second half and made its last 8 shots...against Kenpom's #1 defense. Impressive. 

This Duke team has that dog in it I haven’t seen since 2015

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5 minutes ago, NashvilleHoosier said:

Can you imagine a Purdue vs. Houston National Championship game? 

I'm just here to ruin everyone's Friday. Apologies. 

Anyone but Duke, Kansas, Purdue I guess for me.  Also wouldn’t love UCLA or UNC.  I think Houston would be hilariously sad for IU fans but why not.
 

Go St Peters, lol. 

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10 hours ago, Uspshoosier said:

They didn’t beat a projected tourney team until the conference finals.   Hard team to project.   Predictive numbers were top 5 but the lack of wins against good teams made then hard to place.  They were seeded right by their resume but clearly they would of been seeded higher if they played more tournament quality teams because they would of won some of those games.   They are good 

Houston is an excellent team, all they’re doing now they’re doing despite injuries including key players.

I’m here in Houston, have seen not only their level of talent- as good as anyone- but their bond, these guys are a really, really tight group, they talk about each other as brothers, they talk about not letting each other down and fighting for each other. This team can beat anyone, and Sampson, of course, is a hell of a coach 

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Spent some time on kenpom.com today going over data of past national champions. There have been 19 national champions in the Kenpom era. 16 of them finished in the top 3 in efficiency margin (which is how Kenpom ranks teams). The three who didn't: 2003 Syracuse (8th), 2011 UConn (10th) and 2014 UConn (15th). The margin for most of the champions was usually above 30, with a few around 28 or 29. Syracuse and those UConn teams were around 23.

 

So how did those teams do it? Defense. They all had a defense that ranked in the top 15.

 

A few things, so we can keep the pants-crapping to a minimum if Purdue embarrasses St. Peters's tonight: Purdue currently ranks 13th in efficiency, right around the three outlier teams I mentioned that won it all. Where Purdue differs greatly from them, however, is in adjusted defense, where they currently rank 88th. They have the #1 offense right now, but they are actually averaging fewer points per 100 possessions (how Kenpom ranks offenses) than they were in 2018 and 2019. And those teams had defenses that ranked in the 30's. 

 

Try not to pay too much attention to Vegas. They've been bullish on Purdue all season, favoring them in all but one game. Purdue is 15-20-1 against the spread, worse than any team that made the Sweet 16. Their adjusted D rank is the second-worst that made it to this round. They are fully capable of making the Final Four, but would very much be an outlier if they won it all.   

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