Bracketology and Team Resumes

[HoosierAloha]

On a more serious note, our chances of making the tourney dropped almost 20% in the last week. I do think we still sneak in with a "couple of three" more wins.

Only dropped 14% points after this loss. We should probably start winning again if we plan to make the tourney. Although, we most likely drop one more before we get the trippin Twerps in our house.

[Uspshoosier]

7 minutes ago, HoosierAloha said:

Are we at a point that we need certain wins or just wins will do?

We still have Wiscy and @O$U during our "rough stretch" before things get quite a bit easier. If we were to only win those easier games (Maryland, Rutger, @Minny) does that matter?

I don’t think IU needs certain wins but that will also depend on what other teams around the cut line do.    Winning the Wisky game or OSU would probably mean that 2 other wins would lock them  in whereas winning the 3 you mentioned I would think they would be still in good shape but less certainly.    A sneaky thing to watch is if Rutgers keeps winning that home game against them could turn into a Q2 which would be big to get another home Q2 opportunity.   

[RaceToTheTop]

Bracketville has IU as the top 9 seed as of this morning, number 33 overall.  

Probably IU's biggest selling point right now is no losses outside of Q1 and A2 and five of the eight losses are Q1.

[RaceToTheTop]

7 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

I don’t think IU needs certain wins but that will also depend on what other teams around the cut line do.    Winning the Wisky game or OSU would probably mean that 2 other wins would lock them  in whereas winning the 3 you mentioned I would think they would be still in good shape but less certainly.    A sneaky thing to watch is if Rutgers keeps winning that home game against them could turn into a Q2 which would be big to get another home Q2 opportunity.   

Rutgers themselves has such an uneasy resume.  5-3 against quad one teams but three losses against Q3 and Q4.

[RaceToTheTop]

To start the weekend, I had 43 at large bids with positive plus/minus numbers in my system.  There are 32 auto bids, so 36 at large.

After the weekend, I have 38 at large bids with positive plus/minus numbers in my system.  Wasn't a good weekend for bubble teams -- that is, looks like there were more bubble teams moving the wrong way than the right way.

My system is not favorable to IU.  Currently has them as the first team out -- at +0.34 wins.  Cut line is at +0.58 (I have West Virginia as last team in).  Only Indiana and Michigan have positive plus/minus ratings but outside of the cut line.

My last eight in are BYU, SMU, Creighton, Iowa, Belmont, San Diego St, VCU, and West Virginia.

My first ten out (in order) are Indiana, Michigan, Oklahoma, Stanford, Toledo, Colorado, Florida, Kansas St, Oregon, and St. Bonaventure.

[IU Scott]

8 hours ago, HoosierAloha said:

Are we at a point that we need certain wins or just wins will do?

We still have Wiscy and @O$U during our "rough stretch" before things get quite a bit easier. If we were to only win those easier games (Maryland, Rutger, @Minny) does that matter?

We have to win those easy ones because we can't afford bad losses. I think we have to beat Maryland and Minnesota and I feel we need to win the rest of the home games.

[HoosierAloha]

9 minutes ago, IU Scott said:

We have to win those easy ones because we can't afford bad losses. I think we have to beat Maryland and Minnesota and I feel we need to win the rest of the home games.

Good catch on that Maryland game, we'll need that to avoid a quad 3 (?) loss. I don't think the Minny game will be quad 3? Regardless, if we schedule a team meeting we might be able to win all three in that stretch (Maryland, @Minny, Rutger). That should do enough to get us in, maybe, without having to win in the BTT.

[RaceToTheTop]

8 minutes ago, IU Scott said:

We have to win those easy ones because we can't afford bad losses. I think we have to beat Maryland and Minnesota and I feel we need to win the rest of the home games.

Current games by quad through today's NET:

Wisky:  Q1

at Ohio State:  Q1

Maryland Q3

at Minnesota:  Q2

Rutgers  Q3

at Purdue Q1

The only possible quad changes could be Wisky dropping to a quad 2 if they don't well play the rest of the year or Rutgers moving to a quad 2 if they play well.

[HoosierAloha]

10 minutes ago, brumdog45 said:

Current games by quad through today's NET:

Wisky:  Q1

at Ohio State:  Q1

Maryland Q3

at Minnesota:  Q2

Rutgers  Q3

at Purdue Q1

The only possible quad changes could be Wisky dropping to a quad 2 if they don't well play the rest of the year or Rutgers moving to a quad 2 if they play well.

Woah! How far down was Rutger before their current winning streak against the top of the Big 1.o?!

Now we have two landmines to dodge and Rutger has sort of had our number lately. Goodness.

[RaceToTheTop]

3 minutes ago, HoosierAloha said:

Woah! How far down was Rutger before their current winning streak against the top of the Big 1.o?!

Now we have two landmines to dodge and Rutger has sort of had our number lately. Goodness.

They were in the 100s.  They are currently at 81 -- at Assembly Hall, they are a Q2 unless they are under 75.

[Uspshoosier]

10 minutes ago, HoosierAloha said:

Woah! How far down was Rutger before their current winning streak against the top of the Big 1.o?!

Now we have two landmines to dodge and Rutger has sort of had our number lately. Goodness.

IU always had those 2 Q3 games.   Difference now is Rutgers is closer to moving to a Q2 game.    Rutgers had to make up a ton of ground since they lost at home to Lafayette and Maryland and lost  at Umass.   They are definitely playing better then before.   

[HoosierAloha]

16 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

IU always had those 2 Q3 games.   Difference now is Rutgers is closer to moving to a Q2 game.    Rutgers had to make up a ton of ground since they lost at home to Lafayette and Maryland and lost  at Umass.   They are definitely playing better then before.   

I guess I wasn't lumping Maryland in with the Nebrasketballs and Minnys of the world and definitely wasn't thinking Rutger was in that category. Gotta bring it in those games.

[NashvilleHoosier]

ND now only 6 spots from being a quad 1 win for us. 

[RaceToTheTop]

30 minutes ago, NashvilleHoosier said:

ND now only 6 spots from being a quad 1 win for us. 

And they are tied for the ACC lead.

[RaceToTheTop]

Memphis is now the last team in on the bracketville bracket.  SMU currently listed as the auto bid but if they were at large would be the second to last team in.

American Athletic right now has either only the auto bid or possibly the auto bid and one or two at large bids.

[TheWatShot]

13 hours ago, NashvilleHoosier said:

ND now only 6 spots from being a quad 1 win for us. 

Quite a few people were unhappy when we didn't blow them out. They might end up being seeded higher than us at this rate. 

[NashvilleHoosier]

19 minutes ago, TheWatShot said:

Quite a few people were unhappy when we didn't blow them out. They might end up being seeded higher than us at this rate. 

I have one of the more negative outlooks on the rest of the season, I'm sure, but I'm convinced we'll have a higher (or would it be lower?) seed number next to our name come March b/c I think we'll be something like a #2 or #3 seed....in the NIT. 

[RaceToTheTop]

2 hours ago, TheWatShot said:

Quite a few people were unhappy when we didn't blow them out. They might end up being seeded higher than us at this rate. 

They may very well be.  Bracketville has IU at 33 and Notre Dame at 35, which would both be 9 seeds.  Notre Dame has a favorable schedule left as well -- 4 home games and 2 road games.  Host Boston College, Syracuse, Georgia Tech, and Pittsburgh, at Wake Forest and at Florida State.  Pom has them favored in 5 of the six.  Considering they are tied for the ACC lead, there is a decent chance they get at least a share of the title.

[RaceToTheTop]

Seems like over the weekend and tonight that teams on the bubble have been losing while teams just off the bubble.  Has expanded the bubble IMO but really hasn't made that bubble any better.  Haven't seen a whole lot of bubble teams lately that have putting themselves firmly in.

[RaceToTheTop]

USPS -- am I correct in thinking that if you are on a team that is on the right side of the bubble (i.e., 8/9/10 seed), that if two teams are on the bubble are playing each other that the best result for you is to have the home team win?  I.e., West Virginia at Kansas State and Virginia at Virginia Tech (bracketville has those four teams from 5th out to 14th out), I thought that wins by Kansas State and Virginia Tech were good for those teams that are currently on the "right" side of the bubble.