Bracketology and Team Resumes

[Uspshoosier]

[WayneFleekHoosier]

But…….,,, we can win the Tournament. Lol.


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[LIHoosier]

3 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

We have all year, its taking up the first seat on the bench

[Stuhoo]

Our chances:

[RaceToTheTop]

Minnesota fails to close out northwestern.  OT

[RaceToTheTop]

On 1/29/2024 at 7:32 PM, Uspshoosier said:

Acc should have North Carolina as well.   They are a 1 seed for me as of today 

Correct — accidental admission.  They are #6 overall on my list 

[RaceToTheTop]

Updated WAR through today's games (note:  won't have time to put the Arizona game in tomorrow morning, so I am listing it currently as a win -- they are up 3 right now with about 7 minutes to go against Stanford.  If they lose, I'll change it).

Top 25:

1. Purdue 21-2, WAR +9
2. U Conn 20-2, +6.85
3. Houston 19-3, +6.29
4. UNC 18-4, +5.08
5. Kansas 17-4, +4.96
6. Arizona 17-5, +4.77
7. South Carolina 19-3, +4.56
8. Marquette 17-5, +4.45
9. Tennessee 16-5, +4.45
10. Dayton 19-3, +4.30
11. Wisconsin 16-6, +4.04
12. San Diego State 15-5, +4.03
13. Alabama 16-6, +4.00
14. Mississippi 18-4, +3.89
15. Auburn 18-4, +3.85
16. Utah State 19-3, +3.85
17. Illinois 17-5, +3.74
18. Indiana State 20-3, +3.71
19. Baylor 15-5, +3.37
20. Grand Canyon 20-2, +3.19
21. Florida Atlantic 18-4, +3.15
22. Texas Tech 16-5, +2.97
23. Colorado State 15-5, +2.87
24. Duke 16-5, +2.58
25. Creighton 16-5, +2.55

Just out:  Iowa State 16-5, +2.35, Utah 15-7, +2.33, Virginia 17-5, +2.29, BYU 16-5, +2.24, Oklahoma 16-6, +2.23.

I did find an error I made last week on BYU and corrected it.

[IUHoosierJoe]

My computer rankings, which include games through yesterday, 2/4/24.  I've added Div. I records and last week's ranking:

1	Purdue		21	-	2		(	2	)
2	Houston		19	-	3		(	1	)
3	Arizona		17	-	5		(	3	)
4	Connecticut		20	-	2		(	6	)
5	Alabama		16	-	6		(	7	)
6	Tennessee		16	-	5		(	4	)
7	North Carolina		18	-	4		(	5	)
8	BYU		16	-	5		(	8	)
9	Auburn		18	-	4		(	11	)
10	Iowa St		16	-	5		(	9	)
11	Illinois		17	-	5		(	13	)
12	New Mexico		17	-	4		(	10	)
13	Baylor		15	-	5		(	18	)
14	Kansas		17	-	4		(	15	)
15	Utah St		17	-	3		(	12	)
16	Marquette		17	-	5		(	19	)
17	San Diego St		15	-	5		(	17	)
18	Wisconsin		16	-	6		(	14	)
19	Creighton		16	-	6		(	16	)
20	Dayton		18	-	3		(	20	)
21	Duke		16	-	5		(	23	)
22	Indiana St		19	-	3		(	21	)
23	Colorado St		15	-	5		(	26	)
24	Michigan St		14	-	8		(	30	)
25	FL Atlantic		18	-	4		(	24	)

[RaceToTheTop]

My current conferences with multiple bids:

• ACC (4):  UNC (4), Duke (24), Virginia (28), Clemson (39)
• Big 10 (6):  Purdue (1), Wisconsin (11),  Illinois (17), Nebraska (38), Northwestern (41), Michigan St (42)
• Big 12 (10):  Houston (3), Kansas (5), Baylor (19), Texas Tech (22), Iowa State (26), BYU (29), Oklahoma (30), TCU (36), Texas (44), Cincinnati (48)
• Big East (4):  U Conn (2), Marquette (8), Creighton (25), Butler (37)
• Mountain West (6):  San Diego St (12), Utah St (16), Colorado St (23), Boise St (31), New Mexico (34), Nevada (43)
• MVC(2):  Indiana State (18), Bradley (49)
• Pac 12 (5):  Arizona (6), Utah (27), Washington St (40), Oregon (45), Colorado (46)
• SEC (7):  South Carolina (7), Tennessee (9), Alabama (13), Mississippi (14), Auburn (15), Florida (32), Kentucky (35)

Last four byes: Northwestern, Michigan State, Texas, Nevada

Last four in:  Oregon, Colorado, Cincinnati, Bradley

First four out:  Memphis, Mississippi State, Texas A&M, Providence

[RaceToTheTop]

@Loaded Chicken Sandwich, you have your top 25 for the week?

[Uspshoosier]

Earlier in the when the B1G did poorly in the non conference I talked about how that could effect how many at-large teams the conference was going to get or how that would effect the  seeding of those teams.  The B1G didn’t do terrible in the non con but they definitely didn’t do anything near what they have done in the past.   Here we are early in February and the B1G basically only has 3 teams that are solid tourney teams.   Purdue, Illinois and Wisky which are all top 15 in the NET.   Sparty is 24 but their results based metrics do not match that number.  7 of 14 teams are currently have a NET of 73 or worse.  Let that sink in.   Half of the B1G has a NET 73 or worse.    What’s that mean.   Even when a team wins a game on the road to one of those teams that team isn’t going to get the normal huge NET road win bump unless it’s one of the top 4 teams.  IU won at Ohio St and only moved up 4 (103 to 99) and Rutgers only moved up 4 after a road win at Maryland (104-100).    Im sure the B1G will ultimately get more then 3 teams in but as of today only 3 loom like locks.  

[str8baller]

1 hour ago, Uspshoosier said:

Im sure the B1G will ultimately get more then 3 teams in but as of today only 3 loom like locks.  

You have to go back to the ‘04 season to find a year where we only got 3 teams in and we were an 11 team conference. In ‘18 we got 4.  
 

Maybe a hot team that wins 5/7 down the stretch or something gets in when the numbers say they maybe shouldn’t.

[Five Prime]

The Big 10 is no longer a top basketball league.  Passed up by the SEC awhile ago.  ACC has been stronger at the top since I can remember.  Even Big 12 may be stronger now

[realTomCrean]

16 minutes ago, str8baller said:

You have to go back to the ‘04 season to find a year where we only got 3 teams in and we were an 11 team conference. In ‘18 we got 4.  
 

Maybe a hot team that wins 5/7 down the stretch or something gets in when the numbers say they maybe shouldn’t.

Could be us!

[Loaded Chicken Sandwich]

19 minutes ago, Five Prime said:

The Big 10 is no longer a top basketball league.  Passed up by the SEC awhile ago.  ACC has been stronger at the top since I can remember.  Even Big 12 may be stronger now

1. SEC

2. Big 12

3. Big East

4. Big Ten

5. Mountain West

6. ACC

7. Pac12

[Uspshoosier]

45 minutes ago, Loaded Chicken Sandwich said:

1. SEC

2. Big 12

3. Big East

4. Big Ten

5. Mountain West

6. ACC

7. Pac12

Big 12

Big east 

sec 

B1G 

 

[Loaded Chicken Sandwich]

5 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

Big 12

Big east 

sec 

B1G 

 

I can accept that. Big Ten looking like a 4-5 big league. They'll find a way to throw Michigan State in there somehow of course. A 6th team might be really hard to find. I don't see Northwestern, Michigan State or Nebraska being any higher than 8/9 seeds without strong finishes.

[Loaded Chicken Sandwich]

Chances of South Florida getting an at-large? Not great. But after a really bad start to the season(starting 2-4 with losses to Central Michigan, Maine, Hofstra and UMass), USF has won 14 of their last 15 and sit on top of the AAC standings at 9-1.

Memphis on the other hand has fallen apart recently with 4 straight losses(including USF at home) and a very close win over Wichita State. They were 15-2 beforehand.

[IndyResident16]

I think we're about two weeks from mathematically eliminating Indiana's odds of an at-large bid, not that they were any good to begin with. Assuming IU loses to Purdue Saturday, I don't see any way IU is even on the bubble heading into championship weekend unless they go 7-1 down the stretch. 6-2 down the stretch and a run to the finals, maybe, but we'd need some help. Really going to regret not closing out Kansas at home. 

[Uspshoosier]

44 minutes ago, Loaded Chicken Sandwich said:

Chances of South Florida getting an at-large? Not great. But after a really bad start to the season(starting 2-4 with losses to Central Michigan, Maine, Hofstra and UMass), USF has won 14 of their last 15 and sit on top of the AAC standings at 9-1.

Memphis on the other hand has fallen apart recently with 4 straight losses(including USF at home) and a very close win over Wichita State. They were 15-2 beforehand.

0 chance. 2 Q4 losses and SOS in the 200s and the American doesn’t have many opportunities for big wins.   As you said Memphis is fading.   American could be 1 bid league if Memphis keeps falling and fAU wins the conference tourney