Bracketology and Team Resumes

[IUc2016 7,121]

As of yesterday IU was in 69 of 109ish brackets according to bracketmatrix.

As of today they are in 96 of 119. 

 

If you notice , the CBS bracket is listed first.  And no they are not in it 

[RaceToTheTop 25,633]

3 hours ago, IUc2016 said:

As of yesterday IU was in 69 of 109ish brackets according to bracketmatrix.

As of today they are in 96 of 119. 

 

If you notice , the CBS bracket is listed first.  And no they are not in it 

Of the brackets posted through Sunday's game, IU is in 71 out of 87 -- or 82% of the brackets.  I think it's a little more important when looking at how many brackets you are in than the average bracket rank -- because if you aren't in on a bracket, it doesn't count toward your average seed there.---

The bubble teams there on brackets posted today (tentatively 5 would be in before bid stealers-- Loyola is tentative because some brackets are projecting them as the sole MVC team....they currently are the top 12 seed by average.  My gut says that if they don't win the MVC tournament, they likely are just out):

IU 71 out of 87

Michigan 68 out of 87

Miami 77 out of 87

Memphis 71 out of 87

SMU 33 out of 87

BYU 37 out of 87

VCU 31 out of 87

Rutgers 20 out of 87

No other team has more than 10.  

So right now the group think would be that IU, Michigan, Miami, Memphis, and one other would be before bid stealers.  The obviously goal is to be as high on that list as possible to avoid having the bid stole.  A win over Rutgers would do two things -- pretty much eliminate Rutgers and move IU up the list.  A loss to Purdue probably doesn't mean much in terms of shifting down but IMO a win would basically clinch a spot.  The Atlantic 10 is the most obvious potential bid stealing conference should Davidson not win the tournament.  The MVC has potential if the committee thinks Loyola is an at large team.  North Texas would be a longshot for an at large should they not win the conference tournament.  In the power conferences, it would seem like a pretty big darkhorse would be needed to steal a bid.

Bubble teams remaining conference games:

IU: Rutgers (quad 3), at Purdue (quad 1)

Michigan:  Michigan State (quad 2), Iowa (quad 1), at Ohio State (quad 1)

Miami:  at Boston College (quad 2), at Syracuse (quad 2)

Memphis:  at South Florida (quad 3/4 border), Houston (quad 1)

BYU:  conference tournament;  winner of Pepperdine/Loyola Marymount (quad 4), if they win then San Francisco (quad 1)

VCU:  St. Bonaventure, (quad 2) at St. Louis (quad 1)

Rutgers:  at Indiana (quad 1), Penn State (quad 3)

SMU:  Cincinnati, Tulane (both quad 3)

My personal opinion is that Xavier deserves watching as well.  Recent slide has but them down to 17-11, 7-10 in the Big East.  Remaining games are at St. John's and at home against Georgetown.  IMO if they lost one of those two and don't win a conference tournament game, they are firmly on the bubble.

 

[RaceToTheTop 25,633]

IU moved up one spot in NET to 43.  Wyoming dropped from 39 to 46 with their loss to San Diego State.

EDIT:  missed that USPS had already covered this.

[HoosierHoopster 6,963]

2 hours ago, Uspshoosier said:

Wyoming dropped 6 spots after last nights loss so IU moved up 1 spot today 

I knew we would have a good reason to talk Wyoming again!

:)

[RaceToTheTop 25,633]

3 hours ago, Chris007 said:

And as you know like USPS said there is a lot more to it than that. Penn St who beat IU lost to a terrible team so that hurt IU as much as us not blowing out Minny. Houston, who Memphis beat, blew out a bubble team to help Memphis. So a lot more to it than just that.

There is.  Just seems strange that a team with a quad 2 win gets passed by a team behind them with a quad 3.  With moving parts and 350+ teams, those things can happen.

In terms of teams on a late run.......efficiency doesn't care when it happens.  If IU came back from a 15 point deficit to win by 5, or nearly blew a 27 point lead but won by 5, NET counts it the same.

The Wyoming/San Diego State game was strange in that played at Wyoming, it was a quad one game for both;  if it were at San Diego State, it would have been a quad one game for Wyoming but not San Diego State....even though everyone has San Diego State on a lower bracket seed than Wyoming. For it being a quad one loss for Wyoming, a drop from 39 to 46 this late in the year is a pretty severe drop.  Stranger.....if Wyoming had beaten San Diego State, what would have been a quad one win prior to the game would have been a quad two win as San Diego State would have fallen to a two.  

Similar  but even stranger thing when Rutgers comes to Indiana -- for Rutgers it will be a quad one game, for IU it will be a quad three.  Most people view the game as a winner likely in, loser likely out.  That's the part that seems strange to me, that playing a team on the bubble -- regardless of where -- is considered a quad three game.

[RaceToTheTop 25,633]

Delphibracketology -- the bracketologist with the highest average over the last five years -- had IU as the second team out on February 25th (prior to the Maryland and Minnesota games).  Today, he has IU as one of first four byes -- with five teams below them in the at large bids.

[Uspshoosier 45,670]

1 minute ago, brumdog45 said:

Delphibracketology -- the bracketologist with the highest average over the last five years -- had IU as the second team out on February 25th (prior to the Maryland and Minnesota games).  Today, he has IU as one of first four byes -- with five teams below them in the at large bids.

Delphi is Indiana based and is a high school teacher and coach(Indiana fan) and his students in a club that meet a do it.  Really cool they are one of the best in business right now  

[IUc2016 7,121]

12 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

Delphi is Indiana based and is a high school teacher and coach(Indiana fan) and his students in a club that meet a do it.  Really cool they are one of the best in business right now  

Yes he is great. Brian Tonsoni who is part of the Assembly Call crew.

[IUc2016 7,121]

Mike isn't really great at this bracketology stuff but here is his bracket. 

[Uspshoosier 45,670]

1 minute ago, IUc2016 said:

Mike isn't really great at this bracketology stuff but here is his bracket. 

Mike is just starting out with the bracketology.  He first started last year.  I talked with him on Twitter about starting up and congratulating him on joining the community of bracketologist.  I told him I did it on a smaller scale but to enjoy the ride.   He had no business responding to me since he is a hall of fame writer and a national guy but he did respond back and and is someone I’ve had a lot of conversations about college basketball and bracketology.   Give him time and I think he will get better at it.   Biggest thing about being accurate is studying what the committee has done in years past.  

[IUc2016 7,121]

Just now, Uspshoosier said:

Mike is just starting out with the bracketology.  He first started last year.  I talked with him on Twitter about starting up and congratulating him on joining the community of bracketologist.  I told him I did it on a smaller scale but to enjoy the ride.   He had no business responding to me since he is a hall of fame writer and a national guy but he did respond back and and is someone I’ve had a lot of conversations about college basketball and bracketology.   Give him time and I think he will get better at it.   Biggest thing about being accurate is studying what the committee has done in years past.  

No don't get me wrong I love Mike. He is a great listen and is on a ton of IU podcasts.

But just saying that his bracket is about like Palm's at this point. It's only important because it is Fox's version

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1 hour ago, Uspshoosier said:

Delphi is Indiana based and is a high school teacher and coach(Indiana fan) and his students in a club that meet a do it.  Really cool they are one of the best in business right now  

I had heard about them, just didn't know that was Delphi.  Watched an ESPN segment on them a couple of years ago -- he definitely doesn't let personal bias come into play and the study the statistical trends.

[rcbowla 7,093]

I had heard about them, just didn't know that was Delphi.  Watched an ESPN segment on them a couple of years ago -- he definitely doesn't let personal bias come into play and the study the statistical trends.

It's like a school club so not all (believe Brian has said most) are not IU fans. His voice is just simply one of many in that club if I understand it correctly

 

Sent from my SM-G996U using Tapatalk

 

 

 

[RaceToTheTop 25,633]

1 hour ago, Uspshoosier said:

Mike is just starting out with the bracketology.  He first started last year.  I talked with him on Twitter about starting up and congratulating him on joining the community of bracketologist.  I told him I did it on a smaller scale but to enjoy the ride.   He had no business responding to me since he is a hall of fame writer and a national guy but he did respond back and and is someone I’ve had a lot of conversations about college basketball and bracketology.   Give him time and I think he will get better at it.   Biggest thing about being accurate is studying what the committee has done in years past.  

The only egregious things I see are putting North Texas as a 10.......no victories over teams in the field, only two quad 1 games played.  And I say that as someone who likes them in my metrics -- they committee is not going to be overly fond of theirs.  The inclusion of Oregon also is one that isn't real popular....kind of along the lines of the one year UCLA got in.

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Just now, rcs29 said:

It's like a school club so not all (believe Brian has said most) are IU fans. His voice is just simply one of many in that club if I understand it correctly

Sent from my SM-G996U using Tapatalk
 

There is something to be said for the voice of many being able to predict better than the voice of one.

[Stuhoo 80,615]

37 minutes ago, brumdog45 said:

The only egregious things I see are putting North Texas as a 10.......no victories over teams in the field, only two quad 1 games played.  And I say that as someone who likes them in my metrics -- they committee is not going to be overly fond of theirs.  The inclusion of Oregon also is one that isn't real popular....kind of along the lines of the one year UCLA got in.

Well then I hope North Texas is a 14 seed ... so that they can be a first round draw for Purdud.

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1 hour ago, Stuhoo said:

Well then I hope North Texas is a 14 seed ... so that they can be a first round draw for Purdud.

They are a funny team....22-4 overall, but you have to wipe two of the wins away because they weren't D1 opponents.  In nonconference they played Kansas on a neutral court and lost 71-59, Miami (F) on a neutral court and lost 69-63.  Best wins are UAB and Drake.  You know how you hear that a team hasn't beaten any team that is in the tournament?  They haven't -- and it's possible that they haven't even beaten a team that has beaten a team in the tournament (Drake, maybe, if Loyola makes the tourney).

Their POM numbers are very IU like -- they are 103rd in offensive efficiency and 18th in defense, IU is 104 and 19.  Their tempo is dead last in D1.  Their average length of time for an offensive position is also last in D1 at 21.2 seconds.  Look to score on threes.  Will NEVER go past seven deep.

[Uspshoosier 45,670]

7 minutes ago, brumdog45 said:

They are a funny team....22-4 overall, but you have to wipe two of the wins away because they weren't D1 opponents.  In nonconference they played Kansas on a neutral court and lost 71-59, Miami (F) on a neutral court and lost 69-63.  Best wins are UAB and Drake.  You know how you hear that a team hasn't beaten any team that is in the tournament?  They haven't -- and it's possible that they haven't even beaten a team that has beaten a team in the tournament (Drake, maybe, if Loyola makes the tourney).

Their POM numbers are very IU like -- they are 103rd in offensive efficiency and 18th in defense, IU is 104 and 19.  Their tempo is dead last in D1.  Their average length of time for an offensive position is also last in D1 at 21.2 seconds.  Look to score on threes.  Will NEVER go past seven deep.

Interesting case for sure.   Hard team to try and project if they don’t win auto bid. Remind me of Belmont a couple years ago that they put in the first 4.  At first I thought they had no chance at an at large but looking at it further and looking up some other teams from years past I think they have a shot at one 

[str8baller 5,225]

5 hours ago, Uspshoosier said:

Delphi is Indiana based and is a high school teacher and coach(Indiana fan) and his students in a club that meet a do it.  Really cool they are one of the best in business right now  

 

5 hours ago, IUc2016 said:

Yes he is great. Brian Tonsoni who is part of the Assembly Call crew.

Big IU fan and huge basketball guy in general. Been many years since I’ve talked to him. Glad to see he’s doing something a lot of basketball fans are in to.

[RaceToTheTop 25,633]

3 hours ago, Uspshoosier said:

Interesting case for sure.   Hard team to try and project if they don’t win auto bid. Remind me of Belmont a couple years ago that they put in the first 4.  At first I thought they had no chance at an at large but looking at it further and looking up some other teams from years past I think they have a shot at one 

I think the issue isn’t just lack in if quad 1 wins, it’s lack of quad one games, period.  No quad one games left, even n their tournament means they will end with 1 quad 1 win, 1 loss.  Could also make a difference who they lost to in the conference tourney…..there are only two teams in the conference that right now would be quad 2 on a neutral court right now and the way the bracket likely sets up, those two teams would be on the opposite side of the bracket.  Best case for an at large for them would be to lose in the conference championship to one of those two — any other loss would likely be quad 3 or 4.