Bracketology and Team Resumes

[HoosierAloha]

[IU_FanClub]

12 minutes ago, HoosierAloha said:

Lol 1% chance at the final four though!

[HoosierAloha]

On 2/13/2022 at 12:34 PM, HoosierAloha said:

On a more serious note, our chances of making the tourney dropped almost 20% in the last week. I do think we still sneak in with a "couple of three" more wins.

Only dropped 14% points after this loss. We should probably start winning again if we plan to make the tourney. Although, we most likely drop one more before we get the trippin Twerps in our house.

 

19 minutes ago, HoosierAloha said:

 

Our chance at an #11 seed went up from last week. #progress

[IU_FanClub]

Lunardi on Dakich show said 3 wins gets us in

[IUc2016]

8 minutes ago, IU_FanClub said:

Lunardi on Dakich show said 3 wins gets us in

Unless they beat Purdue or win 1 in the BTT, this would require IU to do something it has not done in 3 seasons. That is win 3 conference games in a row

 

[IU_FanClub]

47 minutes ago, IUc2016 said:

Unless they beat Purdue or win 1 in the BTT, this would require IU to do something it has not done in 3 seasons. That is win 3 conference games in a row

 

Welp 1 game at a time I guess

[WayneFleekHoosier]

1 hour ago, IU_FanClub said:

Lunardi on Dakich show said 3 wins gets us in

This has always been my belief.  It's possible.  Hopefully the team doesn't fold it up.  

[IU_FanClub]

30 minutes ago, WayneFleekHoosier said:

This has always been my belief.  It's possible.  Hopefully the team doesn't fold it up.  

Yeah really hope they don’t quit. Feels like if we get to 19 wins they’ll put us in 

[Stuhoo]

1 hour ago, IU_FanClub said:

Lunardi on Dakich show said 3 wins gets us in

I completely agree.

[RaceToTheTop]

IU stayed at 44 on the NET....no movement after the Ohio State loss.

One thing that I find silly -- and it didn't effect IU, but could have -- is that efficiency being part of the equation, it's better to lose by 1 in regulation than to lose by more than 1 in OT.

[Uspshoosier]

56 minutes ago, brumdog45 said:

IU stayed at 44 on the NET....no movement after the Ohio State loss.

One thing that I find silly -- and it didn't effect IU, but could have -- is that efficiency being part of the equation, it's better to lose by 1 in regulation than to lose by more than 1 in OT.

Any OT loss is considered a 1 pt loss or at least when the net was first introduced that’s how it was.  

[RaceToTheTop]

2 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

Any OT loss is considered a 1 pt loss or at least when the net was first introduced that’s how it was.  

Cool, didn't know that.  That said, how to they figure efficiency then?  Is it straight pointspread?  I know that isn't how it's figured on Pom.

[Uspshoosier]

4 minutes ago, brumdog45 said:

Cool, didn't know that.  That said, how to they figure efficiency then?  Is it straight pointspread?  I know that isn't how it's figured on Pom.

Not sure but here is an article about them going from 5 factors to 2 factors 

https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/article/2021-12-06/college-basketballs-net-rankings-explained

[RaceToTheTop]

It's such a weird cut line.  The string that some of these teams have went through and bad losses they've had and still remained on the bubble.....

I mean, Michigan is 14-11 and squarely on the bubble.  Tough schedule, but they've beaten one ranked team.  SMU rises up and then loses to...Temple.  Memphis back on the bubble and they are 15-9 playing in a down American conference and they were swept by SMU.  BYU on the bubble and they simply aren't very good and are lucky to have beaten Loyola Marymount and Pepperdine after losing to Portland.  West Virginia still isn't out of the mix completely and they've lost 11 of their last 12.  Rutgers went from an afterthought to a team that played a solid and they moved from not even being considered to a 9 seed on bracketville.

[IUFAN1976]

IU has played themselves out of most Bracketologists Brackets.  Joe Lunardi still has them as 1 of the last 4 in.  I really don’t see how.

I think the next 3 games have to be must wins for sure and maybe get one win in the B10 tournament.  If we lose 1 of the next 3, then we have to win 2 in the B10 tournament.

Thoughts?

[RaceToTheTop]

Just now, IUFAN1976 said:

IU has played themselves out of most Bracketologists Brackets.  Joe Lunardi still has them as 1 of the last 4 in.  I really don’t see how.

I think the next 3 games have to be must wins for sure and maybe get one win in the B10 tournament.  If we lose 1 of the next 3, then we have to win 2 in the B10 tournament.

Thoughts?

You are incorrect on your statement that they are out of most Bracketologists Brackets.  Of the last 74 posted on bracketmatrix, IU was in 63 of them.  Of the brackets from those who are ranked in the top ten who have posted each of the last five years:

Delphi:  hasn't posted since Feb 18;  IU was a 12 seed then.  Would probably have IU first four out after OSU game

Harkins:  posted today, IU in first four out

Pulsifer:  posted today, IU 10 seed

OMC:  hasn't posted since Feb 18;  IU 10 seed.  Would still have IU in after OSU game.

1-3-1:  posted today, IU 11 seed

Bracketville:  posted today, IU 12 seed.

Lunardi's current rating is very much in line with what other more accurate bracketologists have.   That said, three wins probably gets IU in.  We tend to only look at what IU is doing, but the last week was not a very favorable one for teams that were previously below us on the list.  Very few teams like Rutgers making charges;  more teams like Oregon going the wrong way.

 

[Uspshoosier]

25 minutes ago, IUFAN1976 said:

IU has played themselves out of most Bracketologists Brackets.  Joe Lunardi still has them as 1 of the last 4 in.  I really don’t see how.

I think the next 3 games have to be must wins for sure and maybe get one win in the B10 tournament.  If we lose 1 of the next 3, then we have to win 2 in the B10 tournament.

Thoughts?

Depends on how the bubble looks at the end of the year.   Also would depend on which 3 games IU wins 

without knowing the bubble my best guess would be 

2 wins or less and IU will have to do work in the B1G tourney

3 wins non Purdue and IU could make it in but they will be sweating and 1 B1G tourney win would lock them in or that tourney game would be an elimination game kind of like the OSU from a couple years ago  

3 wins one of those being Purdue and IU is locked in without having to win a B1G tourney game 

4 wins and IU is a lock 

[Uspshoosier]

Big thing in IUs favor now is that Rutgers has put themselves in position to be a tourney team or at least a bubble team and a top 5 B1G team.     That game against Rutgers just became way bigger then it was thought to be 2 weeks ago.  Also no one wants to talk about losses but that’s another big positive on IU’s resume.  All 10 of their losses are net 86 and lower (7 of those NET 34 of lower).    Bubble teams will have terrible losses and if IU can avoid those Q3 losses that will only help them during selection.   Having said that IU still has to wins some games 

[IU Scott]

18 hours ago, lillurk said:

Not a bracketologist but if you win the next three, lost @ PU, you’re close. Think if you win the 8/9 BTT game you can sleep easily. If not you have to sweat bid thief tourney champs, and/or other bubble teams making a run. 

Pretty sure the 9th place team had to play on the first day against the 14 the place team. We have to win that game if we finish at 3-1

[Uspshoosier]

2 minutes ago, IU Scott said:

Pretty sure the 9th place team had to play on the first day against the 14 the place team. We have to win that game if we finish at 3-1

14 plays 11 and 12 plays 13 on the first day