Bracketology and Team Resumes

[RaceToTheTop 28,081]

Michigan dropped 3 spots after their home win against Northwestern.

What is funny is that Michigan played bad enough in their win that they very nearly bumped Northwestern into being a quad 2 game instead of a quad three.  Northwestern went from 82 to 77 in the game;  if they had gotten to 75, they would have been a quad 2.

So by barely winning, Michigan got a quad 3 win.  But if Michigan had lost, it likely would have been a quad 2 loss.

[RaceToTheTop 28,081]

In running my sheets, I came across something that amazed me.  Although Gonzaga has played some pretty good teams on neutral courts this year, it is now January 27th and they have only played one true road game (at Santa Clara).

[MikeRoberts 7,574]

IU first and foremost just needs to make the tournament.

next is staying off the 8-9 game. That is a death sentence

[RaceToTheTop 28,081]

BMy sheets have been updated for all results tonight with just one game left that could effect some seeding -- BYU at Pacific where BYU is currently down 9 to a horrible Pacific team with 7 minutes left.

My last four byes in descending order:  Arkansas, San Diego State, West Virginia, SMU

My last four in:  Notre Dame, Iowa, Oklahoma, Florida. (note that Ohio is last four in and Florida out if they are not the MAC automatic bid)

My first four out:  VCU, Seton Hall, Toledo, Florida State

Next four out:  Creighton, Minnesota, Texas A&M, St. Bonaventure.

Quite a few bracketologists have Oregon in the tournament; my system does not like their resume.

My system does not like IU as much as most -- has them as a 10 seed.

 

[MemphisHoosier 2,276]

10 hours ago, brumdog45 said:

BMy sheets have been updated for all results tonight with just one game left that could effect some seeding -- BYU at Pacific where BYU is currently down 9 to a horrible Pacific team with 7 minutes left.

My last four byes in descending order:  Arkansas, San Diego State, West Virginia, SMU

My last four in:  Notre Dame, Iowa, Oklahoma, Florida. (note that Ohio is last four in and Florida out if they are not the MAC automatic bid)

My first four out:  VCU, Seton Hall, Toledo, Florida State

Next four out:  Creighton, Minnesota, Texas A&M, St. Bonaventure.

Quite a few bracketologists have Oregon in the tournament; my system does not like their resume.

My system does not like IU as much as most -- has them as a 10 seed.

 

You're not alone my friend, the Bracket Matrix expert opinion is spread ranging as optimistic as 7 and as low as 12 for our beloved Hoosiers.

[HoosierHoopster 7,553]

^^ Remaining 9 Conf is a tough stretch, how we finish is going to determine where we end up (captain obvious point), if we can start that run with a W over Illinois it will go a long way to helping us out.

- Illinois

- @ NWU

- @ MSU

- Wisconsin (please slam these clowns)

- @ OSU

- MD

@ Minn

- Rutgers

- @PU

I am optimistically thinking 5-4, but if we just win out at home that's 4-5 for an overall record of 11-9, and I would think that would be good for a 7 seed or better. The games against Illinois and Wisc are big.

[RaceToTheTop 28,081]

17 minutes ago, MemphisHoosier said:

You're not alone my friend, the Bracket Matrix expert opinion is spread ranging as optimistic as 7 and as low as 12 for our beloved Hoosiers.

It does.  One thing to keep in mind is that the bracketmatrix has brackets from a wide variety of dates, going from Jan 23 to Jan 28.  None of them would include the victory over Maryland and some don't include the Penn State victory either..  I try to pay attention to the most recent ones (the ones on Jan 28) but even those don't include the Maryland game.

[MemphisHoosier 2,276]

3 minutes ago, brumdog45 said:

It does.  One thing to keep in mind is that the bracketmatrix has brackets from a wide variety of dates, going from Jan 23 to Jan 28.  None of them would include the victory over Maryland and some don't include the Penn State victory either..  I try to pay attention to the most recent ones (the ones on Jan 28) but even those don't include the Maryland game.

Oh for sure, the landscape changes drastically in 24-48 this time of year, most brackets are obsolete once published...but they sure are fun to discuss = )

[Uspshoosier 49,754]

Without doing a deep dive I would have IU around 26-30 range which is 7 seed at best 8 seed at worst for now.   

[Uspshoosier 49,754]

Interesting observation.   Before the TCU/LSU game TCUs non conference SOS was around the 335 range.   After the update today it’s around 260.   

[RaceToTheTop 28,081]

1 hour ago, Uspshoosier said:

Without doing a deep dive I would have IU around 26-30 range which is 7 seed at best 8 seed at worst for now.   

Net is at 30, so sounds reasonable.  My system has IU at 38.  A win over Illinois based on today's numbers would bump them up to 29.

[RaceToTheTop 28,081]

IU up to 26 on Pom, 30 on NET, and 17 on Tarvik.  I believe those are all season bests.

[Uspshoosier 49,754]

Alabama’s resume is wild 

14-7

NET- 22

SOR-21

KenPom-18 

Q1-6-4 wins (1,2,4,12,13, @40)

Q2-(1-1)

Q-3-(7-2) Losses( @160, @214) 

Q4- none 

SOS-2.   Non con-6 

10 of their non conference opponents are either 1st or 2nd in their league.  
 

Going to be a tough team to seed 

[RaceToTheTop 28,081]

17 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

Alabama’s resume is wild 

14-7

NET- 22

SOR-21

KenPom-18 

Q1-6-4 wins (1,2,4,12,13, @40)

Q2-(1-1)

Q-3-(7-2) Losses( @160, @214) 

Q4- none 

SOS-2.   Non con-6 

10 of their non conference opponents are either 1st or 2nd in their league.  
 

Going to be a tough team to seed 

Yeah, it's a strange one.  SOS is incredibly tough. I've got them as the #1 SOS for teams I've looked at -- good enough SOS that they could be tournament worthy winning just 53% of their games.  They end up at #17 on my seeding line, so the first #5.

No let up in the remaining schedule either -- 9 of 10 games against the top 100 in pom with 3 being top 10 in pom.  Easiest opponent left is Mississippi, and that's on the road.

Edit:  correction, they are 16 on my sheet, so last #4

[RaceToTheTop 28,081]

I know I said I would hold off on a long post, but here is where my system sits.  Looks like at the end of the season there will be around 68 teams (give or take a couple) at a rating of 0 or positive;  with conference champions about the top 49 would be in as conference champions or as at large.  Columns are wins (against D1 teams), wins above minimum to make tournament (basically the 68th team being the 0 value), SOS is the minimum winning percentage necessary to make the tournament based on their schedule to date (so low numbers have better SOS), and then the wins-wins necessary which is used to rank the teams.  System rewards wins and losses for teams but NOT efficiency.  Gonzaga is not highly regarded in that respect because their overall SOS has been relatively easy....they blow a lot of teams out, but my system is meant to be more about rewarding wins compared to schedule. 

rank	Team	actual wins	needed wins	SOS	plus/minus	seed
1	Auburn	20	13.13	0.625	6.87	1
2	Wisconsin	17	11.38	0.569	5.62	1
3	Kansas	17	11.56	0.578	5.44	1
4	Baylor	18	12.72	0.606	5.28	1
5	Providence	18	12.83	0.642	5.17	2
6	Purdue	18	13.08	0.622	4.92	2
7	UCLA	16	11.45	0.636	4.55	2
8	Michigan St	16	11.77	0.588	4.23	2
9	Arizona	17	12.79	0.673	4.21	3
10	LSU	16	12.37	0.589	3.63	3
11	Duke	17	13.68	0.684	3.32	3
12	Kentucky	17	13.68	0.651	3.32	3
13	Gonzaga	17	13.69	0.72	3.31	4
14	Houston	17	13.9	0.731	3.1	4
15	Villanova	16	12.94	0.573	3.06	4
16	Alabama	14	11.03	0.63	2.97	4
17	Iowa St	16	13.04	0.621	2.96	5
18	Illinois	15	12.07	0.603	2.93	5
19	St.Mary's	15	12.13	0.638	2.87	5
20	Xavier	15	12.13	0.607	2.87	5
21	USC	18	15.19	0.723	2.81	6
22	Tennessee	14	11.24	0.562	2.76	6
23	Texas Tech	16	13.3	0.633	2.7	6
25	Ohio State	13	10.35	0.575	2.65	6
25	Boise State	16	13.5	0.675	2.5	7
26	Miami (F)	16	13.59	0.647	2.41	7
27	Marquette	15	12.65	0.575	2.35	7
28	Colorado State	15	12.7	0.747	2.3	7
29	Wyoming	15	12.73	0.666	2.27	8
30	Iona	18	15.76	0.751	2.24	8
31	UConn	15	12.89	0.678	2.11	8
32	TCU	14	12.01	0.667	1.99	8
33	Davidson	16	14.06	0.74	1.94	9
34	Texas	16	14.06	0.669	1.94	9
35	Murray St	17	15.12	0.756	1.88	9
36	BYU	15	13.22	0.661	1.78	9
37	Indiana	16	14.39	0.685	1.61	10
38	UNC	15	13.39	0.638	1.61	10
39	Loyala (Chi)	15	13.45	0.747	1.55	10
40	San Francisco	16	14.48	0.7	1.52	10
41	Wake Forest	17	15.53	0.706	1.47	11
42	Arkansas	16	14.76	0.703	1.24	11
43	San Diego State	11	9.9	0.66	1.1	11
44	Stanford	12	10.9	0.574	1.1	11
45	West Virgina	13	12.03	0.601	0.97	12
46	SMU	16	15.06	0.753	0.94	12
47	Notre Dame	13	12.12	0.606	0.88	12
48	Iowa	14	13.13	0.691	0.87	12
48	Ohio	15	14.13	0.883	0.87	12
49	Oklahoma	13	12.24	0.612	0.76	12

 

First four out after today:  Florida, Seton Hall, VCU, Toledo (if you have Toledo as the auto qualifier, Oklahoma falls below the cut line)

Next four out:  Florida State, Creighton, Texas A&M, St. Bonaventure

Edit:  typo on Alabama's SOS, which is .530.

[Southside 1,914]

We're Net 30, KP 25.....

Call me pretty happy in year one with Woody thus far.

PU win was my biggest box to check. It's checked.

Second biggest box is going to the dance... Looking good so far.

Not going to start worrying about bracketology just yet. 

Need to get 2 wins (IL, at NW) before the rough 3 game stretch (at MSU, Wiscy, at OSU).

I'll be really happy with 2 home game wins, and at least NW on the road... IL is a big one IMO... 

Keep building

 

[IUc2016 7,121]

https://bracketville.wordpress.com/bracketology/

Bracketville has IU as a 7 seed. He has them as the 26th overall seed which is the second 7 seed.

[Uspshoosier 49,754]

41 minutes ago, IUc2016 said:

https://bracketville.wordpress.com/bracketology/

Bracketville has IU as a 7 seed. He has them as the 26th overall seed which is the second 7 seed.

I say it every year but if there is a bracketologist to follow it’s him.   Hands down best in the business 

[HoosierHoopster 7,553]

22 votes in this week's AP poll. Win against the Illini and probably ranked, win against the Illini and @NWU and definitely ranked next week.

[Southside 1,914]

Anyone know when was the last time we were ranked.