Bracketology and Team Resumes

[HoosierAloha]

1 hour ago, LIHoosier said:

ND jumped up 13 spots in the NET losing to IU. Unless they're hot garbage in the ACC, just playing their schedule out will get them into the top 100.

I wouldn't be so sure of that.

They still have some dough left in the noncon

Texas A&M CC: 155

Howard: 212

Western Mich: 321

Conference play doesn't look like it does them many favors..

Pitt x2: 233

Duke: 7

UNC: 49

GT x2: 159

Clemson x2: 65

VT: 28

UL x2: 78

NC State x2: 129

UVA: 84

MIA: 105

BC: 160

Wake: 34

Syracuse: 123

FSU: 81

[RaceToTheTop]

5 hours ago, HoosierAloha said:

I wouldn't be so sure of that.

They still have some dough left in the noncon

Texas A&M CC: 155

Howard: 212

Western Mich: 321

Conference play doesn't look like it does them many favors..

Pitt x2: 233

Duke: 7

UNC: 49

GT x2: 159

Clemson x2: 65

VT: 28

UL x2: 78

NC State x2: 129

UVA: 84

MIA: 105

BC: 160

Wake: 34

Syracuse: 123

FSU: 81

Good breakdown.  I would say if they can be right around .500 or better in conference, they are going to be right around 100.  Given the ACC this year, I think they have a chance to right around that point.

[RaceToTheTop]

6 hours ago, Uspshoosier said:

Providence has a really strong resume early on 

4 Q1 wins with 2 of those on the road at NET top 30 teams 

I would like to see IU in the tourney (obviously), but if there is any other team I'm pulling for to get there it's Providence.  Durham did his four years here and, like Mo Creek, even if they play their fifth elswehere, they are still Hoosiers in my eyes.

[Uspshoosier]

Pittsburgh beat  Jacksonville at home today.  I’m interested to see how much movement Pittsburgh gains in the net tomorrow for this win. 
 

Jacksonville- NET- 125

Pittsnurgh-NET-236 

[Uspshoosier]

20 hours ago, Uspshoosier said:

Pittsburgh beat  Jacksonville at home today.  I’m interested to see how much movement Pittsburgh gains in the net tomorrow for this win. 
 

Jacksonville- NET- 125

Pittsnurgh-NET-236 

Jacksonville dropped 27 spots 

Pittsburgh gained 13 spots 

[Uspshoosier]

 

[RaceToTheTop]

1 hour ago, Uspshoosier said:

 

Man, the ACC and Pac-12 are basically equal this year.  That's a bad ACC.

[Uspshoosier]

I’m on vacation so let’s have some resume fun.   This is way early in the year to take anything away from these numbers but they are interesting anyway.   If you see bracketologist having teams in or out of the projected tourney this early based on quality wins take it with a grain of salt this early in the process.  

2 teams currently in NET top 75 have 0 Q1or Q2 wins as of today.  One is safety in some projected field while the is on the bubble and even out of some projected fields.    Both these teams will have plenty of opportunities to gain many Q1 and Q2 wins since they conference will be loaded with them.  
The difference between where these 2 are projected is interesting to point out early on

Texas and IU are the 2 teams without a Q1 or Q2 win as of today.  
 

Texas is a projected 6 seed by some with their best win against Stanford(103) and their second best win N Colorado(160) and a SOS around 250

IU is projected out of the field  by the same website with their best win Notre Dame(104) and their second best win St Johns(116) and SOS around 290 

I have 0 problem with somebody projecting IU out of tournament with that resume if people want to project a field this early but if IU is out Texas should be projected out as well.   Takeaway from this is December is way too early to take a projected bracket seriously.    IU and Texas probably have over 80% of their remaining games against Q1 and Q2 opponents.  

[Uspshoosier]

Providence is the only team as of today with 5 Q1 wins. Pretty impressive resume this early on 

Q1 wins @Wisky(32), @Uconn(16), Texas Tech(24), Seton Hall(27), Northwestern(42)

SOS-86

Only Loss- Virginia (113) Neutral.   
 

[HoosierAloha]

What are the quad losses for IU and Texas?


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[Uspshoosier]

Just now, HoosierAloha said:

What are the quad losses for IU and Texas?


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No bad losses for either.  Texas Has 2 Q1 loses and IU has 1 Q1 and 1 Q2.  All loses to teams in the NET top 95.   Not enough difference to have 1 team a 6 seed and the other projected out in my opinion 

 

[TheWatShot]

10 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

No bad losses for either.  Texas Has 2 Q1 loses and IU has 1 Q1 and 1 Q2.  All loses to teams in the NET top 95.   Not enough difference to have 1 team a 6 seed and the other projected out in my opinion 

 

I call this the Archie Miller effect. People have gotten used to seeing us play ugly basketball. 

[RaceToTheTop]

FWIW, that projection seems to be abnormal.  The bracket matrix tracks all the ones they can published and IU is in the field in 35 of the 38 matrixes.  Average has them placed as the best 10 seed, ahead of 10 at large bids which would keep them safe from any conference tournament surprises.

Texas, though, is placed as a 6 seed on average.

One note:  the matrix places teams by the average of their seeds and doesn't factor in teams by the number of times they aren't placed in the tournament;  so right now it has Minnesota as a 9 seed since the people who have them in the tournament have them on average slightly ahead of IU, but Minnesota has also been in 31 of the 38 brackets.

Big Ten seeded teams:

Purdue 1 (second overall)

Michigan State 3

Ohio State 4

Illinois 6

Wisconsin 6

Iowa 8

Michigan 8

Minnesota 9

Indiana 10

Northwestern first team out;  put in the tournament in 17 out of the 38 brackets

[Uspshoosier]

https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/32965626/bracketology-new-year-resolution-redefine-bad-losses

[Uspshoosier]

Notre Dame is at 101 NET today.   That win moves to a Q2 win if they move to 100.  If that happens that will be IU’s first Q2 win of the year.   As always that can change throughout the year but would be good to see IU with a Q2 win before conference play 

[Uspshoosier]

12 of the next 14 games for IU fall into the Q1 and Q2 category 

[Uspshoosier]

I said earlier in the year Marshall might have a chance to sneak up to the Q2 range since Conference USA has a bunch of teams ahead of them and in the top 100.  Probably not going to happen because they stink defensively.  They can’t stop anyone.  They got drilled at La Tech last night.  They better win some home games just to get them back in the Net top 150 

[HoosierAloha]

Notre Dame is at 101 NET today.   That win moves to a Q2 win if they move to 100.  If that happens that will be IU’s first Q2 win of the year.   As always that can change throughout the year but would be good to see IU with a Q2 win before conference play 

That’s depressing we’re crossing our fingers to get ONE quad 2 noncon win. It is what it is.


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[Uspshoosier]

1 hour ago, HoosierAloha said:

That’s depressing we’re crossing our fingers to get ONE quad 2 noncon win. It is what it is.


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Not really depressing just the way it is for some teams.   A lot better teams then IU only have 1 quad 2 win against teams like Wagner, Fresno st, Towson, and others 

 

[Uspshoosier]

I get that people are concerned with the O Q1 or Q2 wins yet but IU will have at least 14 opportunities for those kind of wins moving forward.  That’s plenty for an at large bid even if Notre dame and St. John’s doesn’t make it to Q2 territory.   IUs tournament chances will come down to B1G play like it has the last couple years.   Those years IU had the Q1 wins and still found a way to find themselves out because of lack of Q2 conference win's

Can they finally put it together in conference so I can put their name on my IU bracket?  I hope so it would be nice to put their name on the board for the first time since I got it