End of Season Analysis/Opinions

[GnarlyNormEllenberger]

I was about to comment in the Purdue thread when I realized most of what I have to say is about the 2017 season as a whole. It didn't look like there was a thread for that and this was going to be a long post anyway (as per usual) so here goes...

This campaign will go down in the record books as 5-7 (2-7). We rode into the season with some momentum coming off back-to-back bowl seasons and returning the majority of our (much-improved) defense while returning our QB along with a lot of WR talent/production. There were question marks surrounding our O-Line, run game and coaching staff as we brought in a lot of new faces in those areas... particularly a first-year head coach. While some believed this season was ripe for a "breakthrough", many (including myself) simply hoped that we could sustain the momentum created in the past couple of season and make it back to a bowl for the third season in a row. Unfortunately, it didn't happen. So what went wrong? My thoughts...

- Quarterback play. We were hoping Lagow would take the next step this year, but it didn't happen. His QB rating dropped from a not-great 128.8 in 2016 to an even less-effective 124.8 in 2017. Perhaps the biggest drop in efficiency was the fact his yards per attempt decreased from 7.68 to just 6.56. His completion percentage slightly rose from 57.8% to 58.3%. To his credit, he did limit his INTs to just 8 in 295 attempts compared to 17 in 438 attempts in 2016. But as a whole? There wasn't much improvement. At least not near what we needed to "breakthrough"...

So we got to see what Ramsey provided us. From a passing standpoint, his QB rating was slightly better than Lagow at 127.9. He did have an impressive completion percentage of 65.4% but only a measly 6.11 yards per attempt. His INT ratio was similar to Lagow with 5 INTs in 205 attempts. But to be honest, we saw a lot of "dink and dunk" with Ramsey at QB and there were a lot of punts. He did provide a spark at times with his ability to scramble/run, but it was limited as the season progressed.

Personally, I don't believe our coaching staff ever felt comfortable with either QB. And it showed with the play-calling. I completely understand that they didn't want to put their guys in positions where they wouldn't succeed, but after awhile, I would have figured they would have tried to throw in some new wrinkles. I didn't really see that this year. It seemed like we were "searching" on offense in just about every game this season. And I think a lot of that started at QB and trickled down to the rest of the offense.

- The Rest of the Offense. The O-Line could never make up for the loss of Feeney and Co. from the year before. Players who were we hoping to step up in a big way like Knight and Cronk battled injuries throughout the year and never seemed to get in a groove (although Wes Martin had a good year.) Guys like Stepaniak, Littlejohn,  Crider, Baker and Nworah struggled a lot. I knew our RB unit would be a problem when Redding left early for the NFL draft and Patrick got a medical hardship waiver. We just didn't have near the talent or experience to make up for those losses and it showed. I thought both Ellison and Gest showed promise for the future, but we need a lot more than that. Hopefully Ronnie Walker can help us with that next year. Our talented WR corps took a hit early in the year with injuries to Westbrook and Hale. I do believe that hurt us quite a bit because that put a lot of pressure on Cobbs and some of the other guys like Taysir Mack never provided enough consistency on a game-to-game basis. Timian was solid in the slot and I loved the emergence of Philyor. Also would have loved to see what a healthy Ian Thomas could have given us all year...

But I think we were getting beat at the line of scrimmage more times than not and that pretty much affected everything else. Our QBs were pressured too much. Our already suspect RB unit didn't have much space to run. I would have loved to have seen a bit more creativity in the running game (kinda like what Purdue did) to mix things up. But I'm guessing our coaching staff wanted to play conservative to prevent turnovers. Not sure if that strategy paid off for us...

- Defense. For the second year in a row, this was the strength of our team and it wasn't really close. We were able to generate a pass-rush against a lot of teams. Our LB duo was probably as good of a combo as any in the Big Ten. Our secondary made more than enough plays to keep us in games. So how did we end up with a losing record? I'll tell you why...

The Maryland and Purdue games. Our defense let us down in these two. There was absolutely no reason why we allowed Maryland to have as much success on offense against us as they did with their 3rd-string QB. We allowed 10.7 yards per passing attempt. While they only amassed 345 yards total, it was still a lot more than our defense should have allowed. Even more shocking was the fact we allowed Purdue to run for 272 yards. They didn't have much of a running game, but we showed the poorest tackling display that we had all season. How disappointing.

Don't get me wrong. I loved our defensive efforts against teams like Virginia, Michigan and MSU. I loved how we got two shutouts this year.The defense certainly played up to their potential in those contests. But man... the Maryland and Purdue games were "swing" contests that would have a major impact on the season. While I certainly wouldn't blame the defense for our struggles this year, their lackluster performances in those two games really hurt us in the end.

So where do we stand on defense with all the graduating seniors? We'll have to replace a lot of production, for sure. But I'm honesty not as concerned as some might be. We'll hopefully get a healthy Marcellino Ball and A'Shon Riggins back. Crawford is back at safety. Guys like Barwick, Stallings and Robinson give us some experience on the line. An eligible Bryant Fitzgerald should help. My main concern is at LB... especially if Dameon Willis forgoes his final season. That is a legitimate hole to fill. But that being said, Allen is a defensive guy and has shown that he knows what he's doing on that side of the ball. I think we might take a small step back next year, but not a dramatic slide like some may be fearing. But that's just my opinion.

- Coaching. I'm not gonna dive too deep into this because I'm not a coach. But I felt there were a number of times this year when we went too conservative and settled for field-position wins instead of scoring points. I think the Purdue game was a perfect example of this. Purdue ran gadget plays, misdirections, trick plays, fake punts, etc. They did whatever they had to do to win the ball game. Now I know hindsight is always 20/20, but I'd like to see some more creativity next season on the offensive side of the ball. I defended DeBord mid-season, but in the end I felt his overall play-calling was WAY too vanilla. Also, we had a number of blunders and gaffes on special teams that really changed the momentum of several games this year... we've got to minimize those.

Never been a fan of the "DeBord coaches the offense" idea. Tom Allen is the head coach, so I would hope he takes more charge of the offense next year. Also, I understand the idea behind #breakthrough and #LEO but if you don't back it up with wins it sounds hokey and cliche' and hollow.

Recruiting seems to be going well for IU standards and should allow us to keep contending for bowls in the coming years. Hopefully this continues.

-Final Analysis. We had as much momentum going into the season as we have had in a long time, but we regressed. In the end, that's the size of it. We lost the Spittoon. We lost the Bucket. And we'll miss a bowl game. Did we have an awful year? No, not even close to awful from IU's historical perspective. But considering the hopes and expectations for this team, it was a let down. I felt the season as a whole was a microcosm as to our historical struggles. We never seem to be able to put everything together at once. Sigh.

Next season will be pivotal to the future perception of our program. Make it back to a bowl and I think we're about where we were at the start of the season. And I do believe that we will have a roster that is capable of being a bowl team. But miss out on a bowl for the second year in a row... we'll have dug another hole to dig out of from a perception standpoint.

But hey... at least we didn't verbally abuse/mistreat our players this year, amirite? ;)

[Old Friend]

This is really good and very fair.  Well done.  I think we need a RB and a QB next season.  I'm not convinced the QB is Ramsey, either.  Dink and dunk was exactly what he did, and he was flat bad throwing the ball down field.  I saw a similar review in the Indianapolis Star today, and Reese Taylor wasn't mentioned.   That kid needs a shot, and I heard he is projected as a CB at Indiana, which would be a horrible waste of talent with the ball in his hands.  Indiana showed with Antwaan Randle El you can score with a 5'10" kid who can run like Taylor can.   

Hard for me to be overly critical of DeBord.  With a bad line and mediocre QB's, it's hard to score points; and even tougher to be creative because you have no idea whether or not plays can develop with pressure in our backfield all the time.  I wonder how limited DeBord really felt?  His offense at Tennessee set records, so I'm not in the camp that says the guy forgot how to coach.  

I am skeptical of what's to come.  Allen has seemed so committed to defense that the offense has taken a significant step backward.  I don't think that's arguable.  I haven't spent much time on the "who's up next" game, but I do know our 2018 recruiting class is thin on offensive linemen, which is what we need most of all.    We do have a big WR coming, which excites me.   

Anyway, great post.  Well done.

[Miller'sTheMan]

All aboard the Reese Taylor hype train!

[Walking Boot of Doom]

20 minutes ago, Old Friend said:

This is really good and very fair.  Well done.  I think we need a RB and a QB next season.  I'm not convinced the QB is Ramsey, either.  Dink and dunk was exactly what he did, and he was flat bad throwing the ball down field.  I saw a similar review in the Indianapolis Star today, and Reese Taylor wasn't mentioned.   That kid needs a shot, and I heard he is projected as a CB at Indiana, which would be a horrible waste of talent with the ball in his hands.  Indiana showed with Antwaan Randle El you can score with a 5'10" kid who can run like Taylor can.   

Hard for me to be overly critical of DeBord.  With a bad line and mediocre QB's, it's hard to score points; and even tougher to be creative because you have no idea whether or not plays can develop with pressure in our backfield all the time.  I wonder how limited DeBord really felt?  His offense at Tennessee set records, so I'm not in the camp that says the guy forgot how to coach.  

I am skeptical of what's to come.  Allen has seemed so committed to defense that the offense has taken a significant step backward.  I don't think that's arguable.  I haven't spent much time on the "who's up next" game, but I do know our 2018 recruiting class is thin on offensive linemen, which is what we need most of all.    We do have a big WR coming, which excites me.   

Anyway, great post.  Well done.

I also wonder if DeBord has grown unaccustomed to having to be overly creative with play-calling, as he has had much more talented teams at Tennessee for a while. Still, would've liked to see some adaptability...

[Old Friend]

15 minutes ago, Walking Boot of Doom said:

I also wonder if DeBord has grown unaccustomed to having to be overly creative with play-calling, as he has had much more talented teams at Tennessee for a while. Still, would've liked to see some adaptability...

Hard to say.  Agree with you on this....just not sure what he could have done to adapt.  Our receivers didn't win one on one battles very often, Ian Thomas was injured a lot and the other TE's were mediocre at best; our RB's never gained any true foot-hold; and our QB's were mediocre at their best.  Seemed Lagow and Ramsey were asked to do two totally different things; and that HAS to be difficult on an OC.  Two years ago, I was critical of Wilson for not having a QB in the program who could immediately replace Suffold.  We still don't. 

Physically, Lagow could; but he was obviously better with his arm than his head or his legs.  The guys on the broadcast Saturday said that first play was likely scripted and Lagow never looked away from Timian.   Who knows who shoulders the blame for that?   Did we run a jet sweep or fake jet sweep with Philyor all year?   What was our screen package?   Like I said earlier, I fear Allen is so defensively focused that our offense will take a hit.  People don't come to watch would-be .500 teams play defense.  He needs to figure that out.

[HoosierAloha]

My biggest complaint was our offense being completely predictable. I've never coached football nor have I been anything more than a casual fan. With that said, I could have taken a high school defense and stopped IU on 90% of our first downs. It baffles me that we kept trying to run up the gut over and over and over again. I'm sure if we would have just moved that square peg at a little different angle it would fit through that round hole..


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[Class of '66 Old Fart]

I'm like Aloha - never coached; casual fan - but I couldn't believe how many times when we needed a first down, our completed pass play was always short of the marker.  If we needed 6 yds., we threw for 5, etc.

[WayneFleekHoosier]

I'm like Aloha - never coached; casual fan - but I couldn't believe how many times when we needed a first down, our completed pass play was always short of the maker.  If we needed 6 yds., we threw for 5, etc.

Defense gave it to us and Lagow was a bad decision maker.

Play calling on 1st and 2nd downs was rough. We needed more creativity to make up for lack of playmakers.


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[Alford Bailey]

I agree we regressed. Plenty of blame to go around but our QB situation just was not going to allow any improvement over last year. Allen and Co. are going to have to step it up big time.

[Hoosier116]

Terry Wilson or Reese Taylor or Tronti. I don’t care. Just give me something with some dynamics to it. I think DeBord is searching for his next Josh Dobbs and that isn’t Peyton Ramsey.


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[Hoosierfan2017]

Firing Debord should be the #1 priority for CTA this offseason. He was beyond terrible calling plays. 

[ThompsonHoosier]

Firing Debord should be the #1 priority for CTA this offseason. He was beyond terrible calling plays. 

I don't see that happening unfortunately; Allen has given DeBord his vote of confidence multiple times throughout the season. The one thing I hope happens is Allen stops giving DeBord 100% control of the offense (or as he calls it, "head coach of the offense") and geta more involved in offensive play calling. Or maybe bring in a young offensive coordinator from a small program to "learn" under DeBord for a year or two (saying that tongue-in-cheek, he may be the one teaching DeBord some new tricks).

 

[The Ola Depot]

I don't see that happening unfortunately; Allen has given DeBord his vote of confidence multiple times throughout the season. The one thing I hope happens is Allen stops giving DeBord 100% control of the offense (or as he calls it, "head coach of the offense") and geta more involved in offensive play calling. Or maybe bring in a young offensive coordinator from a small program to "learn" under DeBord for a year or two (saying that tongue-in-cheek, he may be the one teaching DeBord some new tricks).
 

I believe that was supposed to be the plan with Mike Heard who is the WR coach I believe.


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[The Ola Depot]

When the schedule came out I said if we did not finish the season with 7 wins it would be a disappointment. Turns out there were more opportunities than that. The Purdue and Maryland games really hurt. The offensive play-calling was absolutely terrible all year and it was exactly the opposite of what happened in years prior. Instead of scoring too fast and making our defense go out too soon and not get enough rest, we went 3 and out and didn’t give the defense rest and by the end of the game they were gassed. I’m pretty sure I saw somewhere that Whitehead led the country in punts this year? I was really excited about Allen and was in the camp that hiring him was the smart move so we didn’t lose him. However his lack of control of the offense is concerning and the defense for next year is also concerning. The defense kept us in games this year. If the offense doesn’t improve and we take a major shot on defense then next year could be a long year.


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[JSHoosier]

I don't have a problem with the OC calling the offensive plays.  My problem is DeBord's playcalling was atrocious all year and showed zero improvement.  We saw times he'd open the playbook up more and the offense would move the ball, then he'd immediately go back to the extremely conservative calls; I don't care if he got away with that with the likes of Dobbs and Kamara.

[ThompsonHoosier]

I'm less nervous on how the defense will perform next year than I am about the offense. We saw what Allen did in his first year and yes we lose a lot of starters on defense so we will probably see some regression, but I don't expect it to go back to the early Wilson years. The offense makes me nervous because DeBord will still call the plays. The good news is we return everyone on the O-line and we have two good RB's in Ellison and Gest. WR's should be pretty skilled again with Westbrook, Hale, and Timian back. But the offense has to be a lot better and help out the defense; otherwise we will have a 3-4 win season and lose all momentum we had when Wilson left.

[TXHoosierDaddy]

On 11/27/2017 at 3:30 PM, Old Friend said:

His offense at Tennessee set records, so I'm not in the camp that says the guy forgot how to coach.  

 

Pretty hard to screw things up when you have Alvin Kamara and Josh Dobbs at your disposal. Tennessee didn't have the best coach obviously but they had lots of talent on both sides of the ball. 

[Old Friend]

3 minutes ago, TXHoosierDaddy said:

Pretty hard to screw things up when you have Alvin Kamara and Josh Dobbs at your disposal. Tennessee didn't have the best coach obviously but they had lots of talent on both sides of the ball. 

You really think DeBord had nothing to do with it, don't you?  

His offenses were better than those with Peyton Manning, and national championship team w Tee Martin.  Stop me when Alvin Kamara and Josh Dobbs are hall of famers.   If you're telling me on one hand talent is why he was successful; you have to give on the other hand that lack of it prevented success.    

But that would require sound logic and unbiased reason.

[Hoosierfan2017]

3 minutes ago, Old Friend said:

You really think DeBord had nothing to do with it, don't you?  

His offenses were better than those with Peyton Manning, and national championship team w Tee Martin.  Stop me when Alvin Kamara and Josh Dobbs are hall of famers.   If you're telling me on one hand talent is why he was successful; you have to give on the other hand that lack of it prevented success.    

But that would require sound logic and unbiased reason.

If DeBord is such a great offensive coordinator why did he show zero creativity and zero risk taking this season? Why did he keep the playbook closed 95% of the time when we had success the few times that he did open it up? Why did he run qb draws with our slow as molasses quarterback? Why did he have players run 5 yard routes on 3rd and 8 plays?

[TXHoosierDaddy]

38 minutes ago, Old Friend said:

You really think DeBord had nothing to do with it, don't you?  

His offenses were better than those with Peyton Manning, and national championship team w Tee Martin.  Stop me when Alvin Kamara and Josh Dobbs are hall of famers.   If you're telling me on one hand talent is why he was successful; you have to give on the other hand that lack of it prevented success.    

But that would require sound logic and unbiased reason.

Dobbs was a great college QB so whether he is a hall of famer or not isn't a measure of his success or talent in college so I don't get that arguement. I can only go by what I saw this year and it was far and away unimpressive. I get the line wasn't as good as years past. Years past it was actually really really good. This year it slipped but it wasn't anywhere near awful and neither was the QB play. To me, you seem to make this the lame excuse for Debord and why the playcalling was the way it was. That can only go so far. There are plenty of times the playcalling lacked any sort of creativity and was overly predictable. At times, it was ultra conservative and it cost the team big time. He needs to really really improve because he is never going to have the talent he had at Tennessee.