Standings and remaining schedule 2/22

[Walking Boot of Doom]

I think Michigan State is going to run the table. We have to win two games to get at least a share of the title. Won't be surprised if we go Illinois (L), Iowa (W), and Maryland (W), because college basketball.

[Brass Cannon]

Of course. You are a far better handicapper then Pomeroy, without any doubt.

I'd make a witty retort but the fact you don't understand Kenpom is good enough for me.

[biteoftheapple]

I believe the opposite, my friend.

[Alford Bailey]

Does Ken Pom value the chance that Iowa may overlook Wisky or OSU with IU being their 3rd and most important remaining game?

[MartintheMopMan]

KenPom only likes us by 7% more than Wisconsin, so it's not a big gap.

 

The statistics are also time-weighted in KenPom, recent games get more weight in his adjusted efficiency numbers which are the biggest part of the prediction. So, he likely is taking into account how Wisconsin is currently playing.

 

 

Does Ken Pom value the chance that Iowa may overlook Wisky or OSU with IU being their 3rd and most important remaining game?

 

No, but if he could value potential mental mistakes he could make a fortune in Vegas. I think the disadvantage is, they would likely overlook OSU not Wisky, and I don't know if OSU can beat them at reduced strength.

[Brass Cannon]

kenpom does weigh recent games but other things get left out their recent win over Maryland is devalued because stone got suspended and they lost to the gophers.

And then their drubbing by MSU doesn't factor just how good MSU is. Completely new team but bad stretch is still having an affect.

Plus Kenpoms predictions don't take into account we don't have Rojo. Even after Illinois that won't be fully factored in

[Brass Cannon]

I believe the opposite, my friend.

Well nobodies perfect don't feel bad. Kenpoms prediction has no data of our team without Rojo and even after Illinois it won't weigh it heavily enough for it to be accurate.

[mdn82]

kenpom does weigh recent games but other things get left out their recent win over Maryland is devalued because stone got suspended and they lost to the gophers.

And then their drubbing by MSU doesn't factor just how good MSU is. Completely new team but bad stretch is still having an affect.

Plus Kenpoms predictions don't take into account we don't have Rojo. Even after Illinois that won't be fully factored in

Stone being out for any reason for one is not factored into KenPom. He does not factor in suspensions for one game, nor injuries, or emotional effect.

http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/entry/ratings_explanation

[Brass Cannon]

Stone being out for any reason for one is not factored into KenPom. He does not factor in suspensions for one game, nor injuries, or emotional effect.

http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/entry/ratings_explanation

I know that's why I said it.

Wisconsins win over Maryland got devalued because Maryland lost to the Gophers but Wisconsin played a tougher Maryland team. But that's not reflected since individual players aren't factored in.

[Chips&Dipo]

My late night class is cancelled so I will get to watch the Wisky/Iowa game. Normally I would use this free time to prep for school, but seeing as I graduate law school in May, I am finding it a better use of my time to watch B1G games.

[mdn82]

Well nobodies perfect don't feel bad. Kenpoms prediction has no data of our team without Rojo and even after Illinois it won't weigh it heavily enough for it to be accurate.

This is more correct.

[mdn82]

I know that's why I said it.

Wisconsins win over Maryland got devalued because Maryland lost to the Gophers but Wisconsin played a tougher Maryland team. But that's not reflected since individual players aren't factored in.

Its because over the course of a season injuries happen. There is enough data to show how good teams are. It's the same as us before Blackmon. The way we played brought our value down. The truth is we are trending towards where we actually are. If we just take the last half of the season we are a top ten team. The first half we wouldn't have cracked top 40. Our current ranking is indicative of our team as it stands. There just isn't much jump from game to game now. I mean are we really 10 spots lower without RoJo? We could win and drop a couple of spots due to inefficiencies which I think is what will happen. That is typically what you see with KenPom. It is usually the game after once the data is there.

[Brass Cannon]

Its because over the course of a season injuries happen. There is enough data to show how good teams are. It's the same as us before Blackmon. The way we played brought our value down. The truth is we are trending towards where we actually are. If we just take the last half of the season we are a top ten team. The first half we wouldn't have cracked top 40. Our current ranking is indicative of our team as it stands. There just isn't much jump from game to game now. I mean are we really 10 spots lower without RoJo? We could win and drop a couple of spots due to inefficiencies which I think is what will happen. That is typically what you see with KenPom. It is usually the game after once the data is there.

Not sure why you are condescending to me and explaining things I already know. Or correcting me by restating what I said.

[MartintheMopMan]

Not sure why you are condescending to me and explaining things I already know. Or correcting me by restating what I said.

Maybe other people read this board too who aren't as smart as you and will benefit from some more information.

[Brass Cannon]

Maybe other people read this board too who aren't as smart as you and will benefit from some more information.

So why quote me. Then quote me in another post and say this one is correct even though they both state the same core principle.

[MartintheMopMan]

So why quote me. Then quote me in another post and say this one is correct even though they both state the same core principle.

I think you're putting way too much thought into it and maybe taking a minor feature of the site too seriously.

You may have been quoted for any reason from "habit" to "adding context".

[WayneFleekHoosier]

My outsider opinion is Brass is being piled on by posters because he disagrees with a core group of posters. Shocking, I know. Many of the points he has made have validity. The opposing group have agreed with many of his assertions.

Not saying all are right or wrong. Who knows what is right or wrong, but his points regarding Kenpom are fair and worthwhile.

My 2 cents.

[WayneFleekHoosier]

Its because over the course of a season injuries happen. There is enough data to show how good teams are. It's the same as us before Blackmon. The way we played brought our value down. The truth is we are trending towards where we actually are. If we just take the last half of the season we are a top ten team. The first half we wouldn't have cracked top 40. Our current ranking is indicative of our team as it stands. There just isn't much jump from game to game now. I mean are we really 10 spots lower without RoJo? We could win and drop a couple of spots due to inefficiencies which I think is what will happen. That is typically what you see with KenPom. It is usually the game after once the data is there.

this doesn't seem condescending to me though. Just laying out his interpretation of Kenpom as it relates to us.

[MartintheMopMan]

My outsider opinion is Brass is being piled on by posters because he disagrees with a core group of posters. Shocking, I know. Many of the points he has made have validity. The opposing group have agreed with many of his assertions.

Not saying all are right or wrong. Who knows what is right or wrong, but his points regarding Kenpom are fair and worthwhile.

My 2 cents.

My insider opinion is, Brass is being addressed because he was a primary contributor to the conversation RE: KenPom. As mdn and I were both also discussing the same statistics, it seemed natural to include him in the conversation. There is no piling on. Brass stated Kenpom did not account for recency, this is untrue so I stated otherwise. I didn't even quote Brass because my point was about the reliability of KenPom's predictions in general.

 

The effect of "piling on" you may feel you see is because after making my point, the discussion continued. When one party disagrees with the conventional wisdom, the continuation of the discussion will likely include the majority group addressing the minority group in greater numbers. If you go to a farming bar in rural southern Indiana and start spouting the strengths of Bernie Sanders, you may notice the patrons "pile on" against you. That is nothing personal to you, it's a function of being a member of a vocal minority and engaging in a conversation about your minority viewpoint.

[mdn82]

this doesn't seem condescending to me though. Just laying out his interpretation of Kenpom as it relates to us.

I wasn't trying to be. But whatever. I haven't posted in days to not have to deal with that same type of crap. Some people just can't discuss things. Nature of this site with some people.