Analysis: IU is 8-1 in Big Ten play and Hoosier fans still feeling uneasy

[IndyHutch 1,718]

Indiana will head into the second half of the conference Tuesday no worse than tied for first place in the Big Ten. The Hoosiers have won 13 of their last 14 games and are among the top 20 teams in the nation. And yet IU fans are a little worried as the back heavy portion of the schedule is about to begin. Here's my take.

I think if most people had told you that Indiana basketball would be 8-1 at the halfway point of the 2016 Big Ten season that most people would have been okay with that.

 

Actually, everyone would have been okay with that. It would especially be true if you also knew that eight games into the season Indiana was 5-3 and had just really struggled on the road in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge at Duke in a blowout loss.

 

If you also added the facts that the Hoosiers had won 13 of their last 14 games to reach that 8-1 lofty perch, everyone would have agreed they would have taken that any time.

 

Not to mention that at 8-1, Indiana would be in first place in the Big Ten (by a half game over Iowa) and ranked in the Associated Press top 20 by the end of January.

 

Oh and don’t forget the Hoosiers have won 18 of their first 22 games. And with 18 wins, there are only a couple of teams in the nation that have more wins than IU and those teams have 19.

 

Make no mistake about it, Indiana basketball is in a great place at 18-4 overall and 8-1 in the Big Ten.

 

So why do Indiana basketball fans have an uneasy feeling in their stomachs entering the month of February?

 

The reality is that many IU basketball fans are waiting for that other shoe to drop. And it’s completely understandable following IU’s narrow 74-68 victory over Minnesota Saturday at Assembly Hall. This was a Minnesota team that was 0-9 in the Big Ten heading into Saturday’s matchup and was ripe for the upset.

 

And that game came on the heels of Tuesday’s night tough overtime loss at Wisconsin when the Hoosiers were handed their first conference loss.

 

The reality is that fans have short memories. They forget that a week ago, Indiana was sitting there at 7-0 in the Big Ten having just defeated back-to-back Big Ten opponents by more than 30 points. In those two games, Indiana made 32 of 64 3-point field goals and looked like world beaters.

 

No, with college basketball, and rightfully so, it is what have you done for me lately? And lately (the last two games) was not nearly as much fun.

 

All of a sudden here came last week where the shots stopped falling. In two games last week against Wisconsin and Minnesota, the Hoosiers were 9 of 34 from beyond the 3-point arc. They were 2 of 18 Sunday against Minnesota in a building where they usually shoot really well. And face it, when you make 23 less 3-pointers in a two-game stretch than you did in the previous two, you’re not going to look nearly as unbeatable as you once did.

 

The elephant in the room for Indiana is its Big Ten schedule to date. Indiana has played Minnesota twice, Wisconsin twice, Rutgers, Nebraska, Ohio State, Illinois and Northwestern. Those teams have a combined Big Ten record of 19-42.

 

Or another way of looking at it: Indiana has yet to play five teams that are a combined 33-12 in Big Ten play, a group that includes Iowa, Purdue, Maryland, Michigan State and Michigan. The Hoosiers will play those five teams a total of six times over the next nine games.

 

Indiana had no control over its schedule to this point. The Hoosiers played the games that were on the schedule, and frankly they did really well. IU could just as easily be sitting here at 6-3 or 5-4 thinking about the next nine games and wondering what the realistic shot at an NCAA Tournament berth would be.

 

Instead, IU fans are looking down from their current position hoping the Hoosiers can get it all together beginning Tuesday night at Michigan.

 

Let me tell you why I’m still reasonably confident here. Here are three reasons why I think Indiana will win more than half of its remaining nine Big Ten games and be in the top four heading into the Big Ten Tournament and beyond.

 

1. THOMAS BRYANT: When Indiana needed him the most Saturday against Minnesota, the IU big man responded in a big way. When the outside shots weren’t falling, Indiana did a better job of playing through the big man and he took charge in the middle. He did a particularly nice job of getting his defender on his hip and then taking the ball strong to the basket. He was also big on the offensive glass and had a couple of plays in particular down the stretch that were big in IU finding a way to edge a Minnesota team that should never have been that close to the Hoosiers. But in recent years, if Indiana had a 2 for 18 performance from 3-point range the Hoosiers would have been dead in the water. Because they have Bryant roaming the middle that’s not necessarily the case right now.

 

2. THOSE 3-POINT SHOTS ARE GOING TO FALL AGAIN: This team has too good of shooters for a slump like that to linger. You have several guys who can legitimately knock down the ball from distance. And when that’s the case you always have a chance. Can I explain what happened Saturday against Minnesota from distance? There’s no explanation. How can Robert Johnson look so good and so confident for the last few weeks and struggle so mightily against the Golden Gophers. Johnson was 1 for 6 against Minnesota but what was worse is that the shots he missed were all good looks. Nick Zeisloft, who has had a few big games of late, missed all four of his 3-point attempts against Minnesota, too. Remember, this is the Minnesota team that Zeisloft was lights out against just a few weeks ago in Minneapolis when he made 5 of 8 from distance including four in a row in a stretch late in the first half. But those shots will all fall again. That’s the thing with shooters. They’re going to keep shooting them and the shots will fall again.

 

3. INDIANA ALWAYS PLAYS TO THE LEVEL OF ITS COMPETITION: This has been true for a while and it has been true of late for Indiana. I told people Saturday before the Minnesota game that it didn’t matter that this was a matchup of 7-1 versus 0-9. Indiana doesn’t handle those situations well. I would have felt more comfortable Saturday playing Iowa than Minnesota. And I’m sure Indiana would have played a lot better against Iowa than it did against the Gophers. Especially at Assembly Hall where IU rides that wave of momentum it gets from playing before its raucous home fans. But think about it. When Indiana played Ohio State (currently 6-3 in conference) at home, the Hoosiers were fired up and ready to play and led by 30 at halftime. When IU played Northwestern, a team that was playing better and had just taken Maryland to overtime on the road a few days before, the Hoosiers looked really impressive. But in two games against Minnesota and one against Rutgers in particular, IU looked lucky to escape in any of those games. And those two teams are a combined 0-18 in Big Ten play at this point. Go figure.

 

There’s no question we’re going to learn a great deal about Indiana basketball over the next nine games. But the schedule withstanding to date, I think this is a pretty good IU basketball team and I think the Hoosiers will come out of this stretch at 5-4 or better. And myself, I’d take 13-5 in the Big Ten any day of the week.

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[Stuhoo 76,383]

Those three point shots ARE going to fall again!

 

(Right?...Please?)

[seanmm1971 1,437]

Just hoping the 3's all fall on Feb 20th.

[WayneFleekHoosier 47,089]

Point #3 relates directly to coaching. However, many programs have this issue.

[Parakeet Jones 3,734]

February will tell the story of this team and this season. I am not particularly worried about the offense, except the proclivity for turnovers. What scares me is the defensive side off the ball. If we play defense like we did yesterday, February will be a LONG month and March will be a short one. Defense is going to be the big question staring us in the face every single game.

[IndyHutch 1,718]

Those three point shots ARE going to fall again!

 

(Right?...Please?)

 

I'd like to go back and look at how many times IU has had a shooting performance like that one yesterday from 3 and still found a way to win. I bet there haven't been a lot of those days.

[IndyHutch 1,718]

Point #3 relates directly to coaching. However, many programs have this issue.

 

I wasn't trying to suggest that it was an IU problem, but just one I've noticed a lot lately. 

[IndyHutch 1,718]

February will tell the story of this team and this season. I am not particularly worried about the offense, except the proclivity for turnovers. What scares me is the defensive side off the ball. If we play defense like we did yesterday, February will be a LONG month and March will be a short one. Defense is going to be the big question staring us in the face every single game.

 

I still think the defense is appreciably better than it was early in the year in Maui for example and also at Duke. I think a few more people are buying in.

[jmsgws 2,030]

I still think the defense is appreciably better than it was early in the year in Maui for example and also at Duke. I think a few more people are buying in.

It couldn't get any worse, could it?  :)

 

Our defense the last two games has been better than Maui, but It doesn't seem much better.  It is almost like if our offensive plan works, so does the defense, but if a team takes away our offensive game plan, we automatically surrender our defense as well. 

[biteoftheapple 4,115]

Granted we did not play well on Saturday. But, if we look at the game 2 weeks ago vs Minny, it was a dogfight as well. They just seem to match up vs us better than most teams. But yes, shooting and defense must improve. And good TW, please.

[Uspshoosier 44,473]

Point #3 relates directly to coaching. However, many programs have this issue.

@sethdavishoops
Maryland's inconsistent focus is a lingering concern. Terps have a bad habit of playing to the level of their competition.
Seth Davis agrees other programs have this issue as well

[IndyHutch 1,718]

Granted we did not play well on Saturday. But, if we look at the game 2 weeks ago vs Minny, it was a dogfight as well. They just seem to match up vs us better than most teams. But yes, shooting and defense must improve. And good TW, please.

 

I felt like TW struggled early in the year and then had a pretty good stretch there. The last few games though, he just seems to be back trying to force the action and dribble/drive where there isn't an open lane. It's hard to watch sometimes.

[jmsgws 2,030]

 It's hard to watch sometimes.

Only sometimes?

[IndyHutch 1,718]

Only sometimes?

 

If you say all the time, then you don't think he's contributing at all and I think most people would disagree. I think TW does a lot of good things. He just needs to rein himself in sometimes and make better decisions. I'd much rather have him playing at Indiana than someplace else in the Big Ten. That much I know.

[Brass Cannon 24,070]

If you say all the time, then you don't think he's contributing at all and I think most people would disagree. I think TW does a lot of good things. He just needs to rein himself in sometimes and make better decisions. I'd much rather have him playing at Indiana than someplace else in the Big Ten. That much I know.

 

Depends where he would be playing.  Izzo would have eliminated bad Troy a long time ago. 

[Class of '66 Old Fart 81,608]

If you say all the time, then you don't think he's contributing at all and I think most people would disagree. I think TW does a lot of good things. He just needs to rein himself in sometimes and make better decisions. I'd much rather have him playing at Indiana than someplace else in the Big Ten. That much I know.

With what you've seen of JM and OG and knowing the recruits coming in for next year, over the course of next season - not just a game or two - are we be a better team with Troy and his erratic play or without Troy should he decide to turn pro?

[jmsgws 2,030]

Terry:

 

I thought you were referring to when he was trying to: " The last few games though, he just seems to be back trying to force the action and dribble/drive where there isn't an open lane."  

When Troy is doing that I find it incredibly hard to watch.  When he is not doing that, I love what Troy brings to the offense.  When he tries to force the action, bad things happen, when he plays to what the defense is giving him, he can be outstanding.  

Of course I can say the same thing for pretty much everyone else on the team as well. 

[Parakeet Jones 3,734]

I still think the defense is appreciably better than it was early in the year in Maui for example and also at Duke. I think a few more people are buying in.

I agree it has been better since B1G play started, but yesterday showed it is still a reason for concern. I have been very vocal in praising the improved defense however, the real test of the improvement is about to begin. I feel equal parts hopeful and cautious all at the same time.

[IndyHutch 1,718]

I agree it has been better since B1G play started, but yesterday showed it is still a reason for concern. I have been very vocal in praising the improved defense however, the real test of the improvement is about to begin. I feel equal parts hopeful and cautious all at the same time.

 

I'm with you here. I'm interested to see how these guys handle this next stretch. We're going to find out pretty quickly if the defense is that much better. One guy I think is a big key to it is TB. The way he played defense at Wisconsin on Tuesday was not good. I thought he was better yesterday.

[IndyHutch 1,718]

Depends where he would be playing.  Izzo would have eliminated bad Troy a long time ago. 

 

Maybe. In principal anyway. But I think Izzo would find a way to work with him, too. I don't think he would have given up completely on a talent like that. That's just my take any way.