Odds/Thoughts on building top 25 preseason

[WayneFleekHoosier]

This was on ongoing debate I had and wanted from last season. Lots of it is trusting programs and trusting coaches.  Indiana and DeVries rightfully will get none of that. 
 

I know it’s not important to most, and it’s how you finish.  While I’ll agree, it sets a ceiling based on Analytics, metrics, and thoughts. 
 

If we want to make a statement make a statement. We didn’t make a statement last preseason or end of season. We did get ranked for 1 or 2 weeks early. 
 

To me it’s important. It’s important for morale, recruiting, swagger, momentum, etc and etc. it’s also important because it says we have a great roster on paper.  And last year, we never did.  It was pretty clear a lot of things needed to go our way. We built a bubble team and performed like one. Go freaking figure. 
 

Odds this season?  Woof. 
 

We have a top 20 freshman class with no one that projects to be real impact makers. We return 2 or 3 guys who don’t project to be difference makers. We likely need 5-6 playable guys and 2-3 stars. 
 

my odds of preseason 25 with a top 20 Nil?

20 percent. 

[Kentuckysucks]

It's possible to put together a Sweet 16 type team for next season but imo we're gonna need $15-20M in NIL.  If we only have $10M we're in trouble and could be looking for a new coach a year from now.  Not expected to be a good portal class and competition will be fierce, especially for bigs.  Tough road ahead I think.

[Pagoda]

5%.  Part of preseason rankings is being top of mind with voters and getting the benefit of the doubt.

We aren’t top of mind and this past season didn’t give us a benefit of the doubt.

I doubt we make such a big portal splash we get voters attention so much that we get ranked.

This doesn’t mean we can find a good team in the portal that goes on to have a good season.  It’s more the dynamics of preseason polls.

I just hope our class looks good to us, or at least we don’t have as many people worried like last year.

[WayneFleekHoosier]

4 minutes ago, Kentuckysucks said:

It's possible to put together a Sweet 16 type team for next season but imo we're gonna need $15-20M in NIL.  If we only have $10M we're in trouble and could be looking for a new coach a year from now.  Not expected to be a good portal class and competition will be fierce, especially for bigs.  Tough road ahead I think.

In a world where big dogs eat first, we are going to need to find a way to separate ourselves or financially act like a big dog until we can build some program momentum. Coaching is an important factor but ALL the best coaches say you are only as good as your players and will do whatever it takes to get the best ones. Getting them to play for each other, like each other, do winning basketball things, motivate them or find the ones where winning is most important. That’s where coaches has its biggest impact. 
 

I don’t see how we pluck enough from a busy Portal to make a statement, without like you said, spending huge. 

[WayneFleekHoosier]

2 minutes ago, Pagoda said:

5%.  Part of preseason rankings is being top of mind with voters and getting the benefit of the doubt.

We aren’t top of mind and this past season didn’t give us a benefit of the doubt.

I doubt we make such a big portal splash we get voters attention so much that we get ranked.

This doesn’t mean we can find a good team on the portal that goes on to have a good season.  It’s more the dynamics of preseason polls.

I just hope our class looks good to us, or at least we don’t have as many people worried like last year.

Sadly agree.  I think our odds are little higher if we make 2-3 splashes. Going into another season with no Mojo will be rough from a fan support perspective. We saw a drop this year.  That will continue.  I don’t think Indiana is totally immune. 

[Jeff Flabjohns]

We made a decently big splash last year.

One Top 25 guy (TDV lol), another top 50, another top 75 and two more around 100 (Dorn, Conerway)—this is all per 247. All that got us exactly one vote in the AP poll.

1-3% chance we do enough to get ranked preseason. Would need to get like 3 top 30 guys. No guarantee that works.
Miami was nowhere near the top 25 and I’m watching them on my screen right now 

[Jeff Flabjohns]

I agree there’s a lot of value coming into the season ranked or nearly ranked.

No chance we get that after the crap we’ve put out the last 3 years. 

[Home Jersey]

7 minutes ago, Pagoda said:

5%.  Part of preseason rankings is being top of mind with voters and getting the benefit of the doubt.

We aren’t top of mind and this past season didn’t give us a benefit of the doubt.

I doubt we make such a big portal splash we get voters attention so much that we get ranked.

This doesn’t mean we can find a good team on the portal that goes on to have a good season.  It’s more the dynamics of preseason polls.

I just hope our class looks good to us, or at least we don’t have as many people worried like last year.

I agree we're not going to be preseason ranked barring a shocking portal success (not happening IMO)

It's going to be another interesting portal season. We didn't build momentum in Y1, but I think it's reasonable to expect a better haul since we're now fully staffed and they've had an entire season to be ironing out a plan. Not only that, but... the money we spent on Tucker, Bailey, and Conerway should go a lot further.

Let's assume Rabby is right and we return Sisley, Dorn, Andrej + 3 freshmen.

That's 7 spots to fill. Flipping the roster to that degree seems like the right idea.

[Uspshoosier]

Auburn and Creighton were preseason top 25 heading into the year last year. Only teams not to make the tourney   Nebraska and Virginia were not in the preseason top 25.   Every team besides Auburn and Creighton in the preseason top 25 earned a top 7 seed in this years tourney.   The top 4 seeds were all in the preseason top 25 besides Virginia and Nebraska 

[WayneFleekHoosier]

3 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

Auburn and Creighton were preseason top 25 heading into the year last year. Only teams not to make the tourney   Nebraska and Virginia were not in the preseason top 25.   Every team besides Auburn and Creighton in the preseason top 25 earned a top 7 seed in this years tourney.   The top 4 seeds were all in the preseason top 25 besides Virginia and Nebraska 

Great context.  

[Hoosier DaDa]

20 minutes ago, WayneFleekHoosier said:

Sadly agree.  I think our odds are little higher if we make 2-3 splashes. Going into another season with no Mojo will be rough from a fan support perspective. We saw a drop this year.  That will continue.  I don’t think Indiana is totally immune. 

Least favorite season for me. I didn’t care about one of the starters because as a group they weren’t good enough and all of them only hadone year. Didn’t feel at all connected to the team. I really hope they can put a competitive team on the floor next year. I really don’t have faith they will. 

[Asha’man]

I think preseason ranking is probably 5-10%. It’s not just who we get on our roster but also who others get. I do think it’s 50/50 on if we get a roster that will end up ranked at some point during the season and stay there. 
 

I’m not concerned with portal rankings. I’m interested in the individual metrics and skill sets that we bring in. Overall, I want to see a more athletic and long team. But prioritize a top end PG, elite wing shooter, and an athletic defensive center. I don’t need 5 out next year, but 4 out with a defensive eraser as a Center sounds great to me. 

[fwgreenway]

This program needs hope in the worst way. Hope in the off season - the portal - and the preseason! Like WayneFleekHoosier has said before in regards to hope, it's all we've got.

I just don't see how there is going to be a buzz around the preseason in terms of media hype without spending big $$$$$ in the portal and bringing in obvious difference makers. 

Now if preseason top 25 really is important then spend away because IU won't be a blip on anyone's radar otherwise. 

It's hard staying the course with IUBB for a lot of fans and we all know why at this point. History...tells me strap in because the odds are we won't be preseason top 25.

[Uspshoosier]

People probably forgot but this current team was in the AP top 25 for a couple weeks.  Got to 22.  They still were flawed and never returned to the top 25 

[IUHoosierJoe]

1 hour ago, Home Jersey said:

 

Let's assume Rabby is right and we return Sisley, Dorn, Andrej + 3 freshmen.

 

Just curious, what has Rabby said about Drake and Miller returning? I don’t know a great deal about either, but I know Miller can rebound, which we desperately need. 

[Home Jersey]

Just now, IUHoosierJoe said:

Just curious, what has Rabby said about Drake and Miller returning? I don’t know a great deal about either, but I know Miller can rebound, which we desperately need. 

I am not a subscriber, but saw @Asha’man stated that it's his opinion (just opinion) that we'd be returning Sisley, maybe Dorn and Andrej, and the rest transfer. 

[BGleas]

Agree with @WayneFleekHoosier that it's very important to be ranked preseason, it's important to always be ranked. 

With that said, I'd put it at about 0-5% chance that IU is ranked in the preseason poll. I'd be surprised if we're even close to the top of "others receiving votes."

[Uspshoosier]

Woodys last year IU was preseason 14th 

 

[WayneFleekHoosier]

3 minutes ago, BGleas said:

Agree with @WayneFleekHoosier that it's very important to be ranked preseason, it's important to always be ranked. 

With that said, I'd put it at about 0-5% chance that IU is ranked in the preseason poll. I'd be surprised if we're even close to the top of "others receiving votes."

Not good.  With top level spending, we gotta get in there.  
 

Pay for a top 10 or 15 PG.  Pay for a top 10 or 15 C.  Pay for another guard or wing on that level.  Moneyball the rest.  I feel like that should produce a top 25 team.  
 

mid major roster building isn’t likely to do it.  
 

[WayneFleekHoosier]

4 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

Woodys last year IU was preseason 14th 

 

Was based on a bad scout on Rice/K9.   That team wasn’t  far off.  If Rice would have been Washington State Rice and Galloway learned how to shoot, and Woody played 2 bigs with our 3 big rotation it would have been.  

Give DeVries a roster like that and let’s see what he’s made of.