Transfer Portal w IU Interest

[RaceToTheTop]

3 minutes ago, IndyHoops said:

Cupps didn’t turn the ball over either. Again, Perkins is a nice player, but IU will still need multiple guards with Perkins.

Cupps scored 2 1/2 points per game in over 20 minutes and his defense was lacking.  

[AH1971]

6 minutes ago, IndyHoops said:

Cupps didn’t turn the ball over either. Again, Perkins is a nice player, but IU will still need multiple guards with Perkins.

That’s not how it works lol.

Cupps and XJ’s TO rate last season were 22 and 24 percent respectively. That’s terrible. Throw in Galloway at 18% who handled the ball a lot and it’s a major reason why IU’s offensive efficiency was so bad.

Perkins TO rate for both his Jr and Sr seasons was 12% which is beyond elite. It’s a huge reason why Iowa finished 4th and 15th in offensive efficiency per KenPom with Perkins as its starting PG.

[IndyHoops]

4 minutes ago, AH1971 said:

That’s not how it works lol.

Cupps and XJ’s TO rate last season were 22 and 24 percent respectively. That’s terrible. Throw in Galloway at 18% who handled the ball a lot and it’s a major reason why IU’s offensive efficiency was so bad.

Perkins TO rate for both his Jr and Sr seasons was 12% which is beyond elite. It’s a huge reason why Iowa finished 4th and 15th in offensive efficiency per KenPom with Perkins as its starting PG.

What is Iowa’s offensive efficiency the last 8 years? Going to bet it has way more to do with Fran than Perkins.

Take a look at what Perkins had around him at Iowa vs what he would have had at Indiana. You honestly think he puts up the same numbers?

[IndyHoops]

9 minutes ago, RaceToTheTop said:

Cupps scored 2 1/2 points per game in over 20 minutes and his defense was lacking.  

We are going in circles… lol

Yes, he struggled defensively sometimes….but it was the offensive end is where it really killed IU. It wasn’t that he turned the ball over… it was because HE COULDNT SHOOT. 

[AH1971]

3 minutes ago, IndyHoops said:

What is Iowa’s offensive efficiency the last 8 years? Going to bet it has way more to do with Fran than Perkins.

Take a look at what Perkins had around him at Iowa vs what he would have had at Indiana. You honestly think he puts up the same numbers?

It’s been elite. And a huge reason is because Jordan Bohannon and Tony Perkins had elite TO rates spanning the last 5-6 seasons. When you have a PG who can run your stuff without turning the ball over, it typically makes for a much more efficient offense. Not really a novel concept.

Do I think Tony Perkins averages 15 a game here next year? Probably not. Doesn’t need to either. But 11-12 ppg seems appropriate along with a good A/TO ratio. 

[AH1971]

8 minutes ago, IndyHoops said:

We are going in circles… lol

Yes, he struggled defensively sometimes….but it was the offensive end is where it really killed IU. It wasn’t that he turned the ball over… it was because HE COULDNT SHOOT. 

Cupps averaged the same amount of turnovers a game as he did made field goals and assists. That’s no bueno.

[IndyHoops]

3 minutes ago, AH1971 said:

It’s been elite. And a huge reason is because Jordan Bohannon and Tony Perkins had elite TO rates spanning the last 5-6 seasons. When you have a PG who can run your stuff without turning the ball over, it typically makes for a much more efficient offense. Not really a novel concept.

Do I think Tony Perkins averages 15 a game here next year? Probably not. Doesn’t need to either. But 11-12 ppg seems appropriate along with a good A/TO ratio. 

You just described a healthy X in your last paragraph. That’s not going to move the needle IMO.

The huge reason Iowa has been successful on the offensive end for almost 10 years is Fran’s system. I just don’t see much difference between X and Perkins in Woodson’s system. Teams are just going to pack the paint and instead of Cupps being wide open….it will be Perkins. Now, maybe Woodson changes his system? Ok…that might change things. But a line up of Perkins, Tucker, MM, MR, and a big might be a worse 3PT shooting team than this year. 

 

[IndyHoops]

14 minutes ago, AH1971 said:

Cupps averaged the same amount of turnovers a game as he did made field goals and assists. That’s no bueno.

Now just imagine if everything was the exact same except Cupps was a 40% 3PT shooter. Just tweak that….nothing else. Would IU have won more games?

Clemson, NC State, Alabama….they all have a kid whose whole role is to shoot. Nothing else. Liability on defense, can’t creat own shot, can’t rebound….but they can shoot. 

[AH1971]

2 minutes ago, IndyHoops said:

You just described a healthy X in your last paragraph. That’s not going to move the needle IMO.

The huge reason Iowa has been successful on the offensive end for almost 10 years is Fran’s system. I just don’t see much difference between X and Perkins in Woodson’s system. Teams are just going to pack the paint and instead of Cupps being wide open….it will be Perkins. Now, maybe Woodson changes his system? Ok…that might change things. But a line up of Perkins, Tucker, MM, MR, and a big might be a worse 3PT shooting team than this year. 

 

Not even remotely comparable to X when you dive deeper into the numbers. X TO% was more than double Perkins.

[IndyHoops]

1 minute ago, AH1971 said:

Not even remotely comparable to X when you dive deeper into the numbers. X TO% was more than double Perkins.

In completely different systems. You aren’t comparing apples to apples here. I bet healthy X puts up those numbers at Iowa…maybe better.

[AH1971]

4 minutes ago, IndyHoops said:

Now just imagine if everything was the exact same except Cupps was a 40% 3PT shooter. Just tweak that….nothing else. Would IU have won more games?

If Cupps was a 40% 3 point shooter last year (instead of 36%) it would have meant he made 16 3 pointers over the course of the season instead of 14, assuming volume stayed the same. So to answer your question: No.

[AH1971]

2 minutes ago, IndyHoops said:

In completely different systems. You aren’t comparing apples to apples here. I bet healthy X puts up those numbers at Iowa…maybe better.

Put X in Iowa’s lineup with their tempo his raw turnover numbers would skyrocket given his potency to turn the ball over as suggested by his TO%.

[IndyHoops]

5 minutes ago, AH1971 said:

If Cupps was a 40% 3 point shooter last year (instead of 36%) it would have meant he made 16 3 pointers over the course of the season instead of 14, assuming volume stayed the same. So to answer your question: No.

He would obviously take more 3s….  :)

[IndyHoops]

4 minutes ago, AH1971 said:

Put X in Iowa’s lineup with their tempo his raw turnover numbers would skyrocket given his potency to turn the ball over as suggested by his TO%.

And I disagree. I think Woodson’s system forces guards to make difficult passes, Fran’s system is way more free flowing. If I could tweak any stat for our guards, it would be 3pt%, not turnovers. 

[realTomCrean]

Perkins would be massive for IU. Beyond the averages and low TO rate, he’s a 23-24 year old experienced PG. Watch the tournament and one trend that’s easy to see is that these teams are throwing out grown men into the game. Perkins and multiple more scholarships to fill let’s do it 

[AH1971]

6 minutes ago, IndyHoops said:

And I disagree. I think Woodson’s system forces guards to make difficult passes, Fran’s system is way more free flowing. If I could tweak any stat for our guards, it would be 3pt%, not turnovers. 

Would completely disagree. Lack of volume over percentage is a much bigger concern. If you’re going to continue to play the same system, your PG can’t turn the ball over the way IU’s have under Woodson.

[Crimson and Cream]

2 hours ago, Mike Wiemuth (iuinphilly) said:

If you look at Box Plus Minus scores from the team last year, one thing stands out…Ware will be hard to replace.  He’s a 8.5 BPM while the rest of the starters total BPM is 8.4 combined (Reneau: 4.4, Mgbako: 2.2, Gallo: 2.1, XJ: -0.3).

To get “safely” back into the tournament you’ll need a start BPM  total around 30-35.  So without Kel’el, where is that hole getting filled?  Let’s say you bump MM and MR to 15 combined (which is possible), you have to find another 15+ from the other 3 slots.  
 

Perkins is a 5 BPM.  So he’s on target, but just barely.  You might need one or two guys more in the 7 range like Nelson/Estrada from Bama.  Either way, you’ll need to hit some home runs very soon.

Phenomenal post Mike! Hope to read more from you.

[Crimson and Cream]

I think the Perkins shooting concerns are a bit overblown, and given we've had to deal with X and Galloway's shooting the past couple years I understand the panic, but let's think about this. 

We're talking about a senior guard who just averaged 14/5/4 in the Big Ten, and also brings good defense and leadership to a program that desperately will need it with so many new faces. I understand the 30% from 3 is worth noting, but he shot 33% his other 3 seasons and shot 77% from the FT line throughout his career, indicating there's shooting ability there. His form isn't broken like X and Trey's shots. If he replicates his numbers from last year and his 3 point % jumped up to 33, I can't imagine there'd be any complaining around here. You'd definitely want a consistently strong shooter at the other guard spot but we should be thrilled if Perkins chooses to come here. We're a tournament team this year if we had a Tony Perkins.

[IUGRAD06]

2 hours ago, Crimson and Cream said:

I think the Perkins shooting concerns are a bit overblown, and given we've had to deal with X and Galloway's shooting the past couple years I understand the panic, but let's think about this. 

We're talking about a senior guard who just averaged 14/5/4 in the Big Ten, and also brings good defense and leadership to a program that desperately will need it with so many new faces. I understand the 30% from 3 is worth noting, but he shot 33% his other 3 seasons and shot 77% from the FT line throughout his career, indicating there's shooting ability there. His form isn't broken like X and Trey's shots. If he replicates his numbers from last year and his 3 point % jumped up to 33, I can't imagine there'd be any complaining around here. You'd definitely want a consistently strong shooter at the other guard spot but we should be thrilled if Perkins chooses to come here. We're a tournament team this year if we had a Tony Perkins.

They had two capable 3 pt shooters and still shot 2-3 percent higher than us. We had one in Ware who averaged one 3 a game. There two best three point shooters averaged 10 3s a game while ours averaged 2 3s.  His shots will be more difficult with what we have compared to what he has had in the past.  Perkins isn’t a high volume three point shooter at 2 per game. You can’t put five guys on the floor who can’t shoot the three.  It’s a recipe for a disaster offensively.  

[Class of '66 Old Fart]

@Mike Wiemuth (iuinphilly) a warm welcome to btb.  You're my kind of guy and have been following you on other sites for some time.  Really like how you take emotion out of the analysis.  Hope we see you often on btb.