Fire Coach Woodson Thread

[RaceToTheTop 24,296]

26 minutes ago, Juwan Moye said:

People like making up stuff, or building straw men, to support what they WANT to happen versus what history has shown us is more likely to happen.

I mean, cool, but we do know that Reneau shot more from the perimeter last year than he did as a freshman.  So there is that history.  No one is saying that Reneau is going to spend the majority of the time on the perimeter, because he isn't.  But it's not exactly going out on a limb to see he take more perimeter shots next year than last since it already happened from his freshman to sophomore year.

[AH1971 1,186]

2 hours ago, Juwan Moye said:

Going back and re reading his point was simply that IU will not have a top-15 offense this year and he was refuting some questionable points brought up by another poster to try and defend the top-15 prediction.

The finer points here don’t matter much to that discussion IMO. You could assume growth in 3pt% and 2pt% and we’re still not a top-15 offense unless those numbers are SUBSTANTIALLY better than last year.

My caveat for having a top 15 offense is Rice and Carlyle shooting bare minimum 35% from 3 on volume. That also includes Mgbako duplicating his conference stats from last season. Throw in Ballo and Reneau who are almost automatic at the rim and that's a top 15 KenPom effcieint offense. When you have 3 guys playing the bulk of the minutes shooting 35%+ from 3 on volume you're going to have an efficient offense. Can't explain it any more clearly than that. 

[RaceToTheTop 24,296]

2 hours ago, Juwan Moye said:

Going back and re reading his point was simply that IU will not have a top-15 offense this year and he was refuting some questionable points brought up by another poster to try and defend the top-15 prediction.

The finer points here don’t matter much to that discussion IMO. You could assume growth in 3pt% and 2pt% and we’re still not a top-15 offense unless those numbers are SUBSTANTIALLY better than last year.

I never stated nor defended saying that IU would have a top 15 offense.  I addressed the point of his argument that I had an issue with, nothing more, nothing less.

[Juwan Moye 213]

4 minutes ago, RaceToTheTop said:

I mean, cool, but we do know that Reneau shot more from the perimeter last year than he did as a freshman.  So there is that history.  No one is saying that Reneau is going to spend the majority of the time on the perimeter, because he isn't.  But it's not exactly going out on a limb to see he take more perimeter shots next year than last since it already happened from his freshman to sophomore year.

The poster in question said “I’ll bet anything Reneau’s production stagnates if not dips with a better back court. He’s going to be playing out more on the perimeter anyway”.

Which is at best a straw man as there’s zero evidence to support that Malik will “be playing out more on the perimeter”.

 

You make a separate point which is “he’ll take more 3 point shots” which, may be the case, but given this whole discussion started from a proclamation that IU will have a top-15 offense, none of it really matters towards that.

But more importantly: Fire Mike Woodson 

[AH1971 1,186]

9 hours ago, iu eyedoc said:

2) The suggested 35% from the teams best shooters, from 3 is not a floor opening percentage.

3)read  @AH1971 posts.

We just going to ignore Mgbako shooting 38% from 3 on good volume over a 20 game conference slate? I will assure you opposing defense's aren't going to sag off three 35+% volume 3 point shooters. 

[Juwan Moye 213]

2 minutes ago, AH1971 said:

My caveat for having a top 15 offense is Rice and Carlyle shooting bare minimum 35% from 3 on volume. That also includes Mgbako duplicating his conference stats from last season. Throw in Ballo and Reneau who are almost automatic at the rim and that's a top 15 KenPom effcieint offense. When you have 3 guys playing the bulk of the minutes shooting 35%+ from 3 on volume you're going to have an efficient offense. Can't explain it more clearly any further than that. 

So what sort of volume are you expecting? We took 15.5/game last year. I haven't done the math but I'm 99% sure that it still wont add up. 35% from three isnt a good number, thats average.

For context, all 3 of Baylors starting guards were over 42% last season. THATS shooting.

[AH1971 1,186]

3 minutes ago, Juwan Moye said:

The poster in question said “I’ll bet anything Reneau’s production stagnates if not dips with a better back court. He’s going to be playing out more on the perimeter anyway”.

Which is at best a straw man as there’s zero evidence to support that Malik will “be playing out more on the perimeter”.

 

You make a separate point which is “he’ll take more 3 point shots” which, may be the case, but given this whole discussion started from a proclamation that IU will have a top-15 offense, none of it really matters towards that.

But more importantly: Fire Mike Woodson 

Not looking to build a strawman, simply what I believe. That's Reneau's path to the NBA. I believe he'll have a significantly larger perimeter role next year as he continues to develop an outside game; see jump from Freshman year to Sophomore year. Not out of the question think a player can't still continue to develop in college on top of expanding their role. 

[Juwan Moye 213]

Just now, AH1971 said:

Not looking to build a strawman, simply what I believe. That's Reneau's path to the NBA. I believe he'll have a significantly larger perimeter role next year as he continues to develop an outside game; see jump from Freshman year to Sophomore year. Not out of the question think a player can't still continue to develop in college on top of expanding their role. 

Cool, believing that is fine. Hell, I’ll do you one better: I HOPE you’re right.

But the probabilities aren’t on our side here so all of the things you believe will happen to turn us into a top-15 offensive unit CAN happen, it’s just unlikely that they do.

If we can agree there then I’m more than happy. :)

[AH1971 1,186]

5 minutes ago, Juwan Moye said:

So what sort of volume are you expecting? We took 15.5/game last year. I haven't done the math but I'm 99% sure that it still wont add up. 35% from three isnt a good number, thats average.

For context, all 3 of Baylors starting guards were over 42% last season. THATS shooting.

7.5-8.5 makes on 22-25 attempts. 

[AH1971 1,186]

Just now, Juwan Moye said:

Cool, believing that is fine. Hell, I’ll do you one better: I HOPE you’re right.

But the probabilities aren’t on our side here so all of the things you believe will happen to turn us into a top-15 offensive unit CAN happen, it’s just unlikely that they do.

If we can agree there then I’m more than happy. :)

Go for it

[Juwan Moye 213]

2 minutes ago, AH1971 said:

7.5-8.5 makes on 22-25 attempts. 

I’d happily bet $100 that we don’t average  22+ three point attempts a game next season year.

[AH1971 1,186]

5 minutes ago, Juwan Moye said:

I’d happily bet $100 that we don’t average  22+ three point attempts a game next season year.

Name your charity

[Home Jersey 5,530]

13 minutes ago, Juwan Moye said:

I’d happily bet $100 that we don’t average  22+ three point attempts a game next season year.

If we average 22+ 3 point attempts per game next year I will get a tramp stamp tattoo of Mike Woodson's face

[Chris007 42,669]

9 minutes ago, Home Jersey said:

If we average 22+ 3 point attempts per game next year I will get a tramp stamp tattoo of Mike Woodson's face

As Woody told me once numbers are just numbers, I believe in the eye test.

My eye test is our offense won't change and no way we shoot 22 threes a game. I've always said we need to shoot 25 a game, so I would be thrilled with 22. I'm guessing we will be in the high teens. 

[Juwan Moye 213]

22 minutes ago, AH1971 said:

Name your charity

Mayo Clinic (tried a handshake emoji but it’s not allowed)

[AH1971 1,186]

Just now, Juwan Moye said:

Mayo Clinic (tried a handshake emoji but it’s not allowed)

Got it. Will send you PM at the conclusion of the season with instructions on where/how to send. 

Autism Society of Indiana in honor my stepson. 

[JSHoosier 19,678]

Some people actually think Mike Woodson, who said the 3 is not a point of emphasis, will make the 3 an emphasis. Good luck with that.

[Juwan Moye 213]

2 minutes ago, Chris007 said:

As Woody told me once numbers are just numbers, I believe in the eye test.

My eye test is our offense won't change and no way we shoot 22 threes a game. I've always said we need to shoot 25 a game, so I would be thrilled with 22. I'm guessing we will be in the high teens. 

 

3 minutes ago, Chris007 said:

As Woody told me once numbers are just numbers, I believe in the eye test.

My eye test is our offense won't change and no way we shoot 22 threes a game. I've always said we need to shoot 25 a game, so I would be thrilled with 22. I'm guessing we will be in the high teens. 

The high watermark for Woody so far is 17.7. So let’s say we go crazy and take 20% more threes from that high, we’re still only at 21.2 or so.

 

Last year was 15.5/game. I just don’t see a world where we increase that by ~50%. But for the sake of winning, and aesthetically pleasing basketball, I’d love to have AH1971 be right here. :)

[AH1971 1,186]

3 minutes ago, Chris007 said:

As Woody told me once numbers are just numbers, I believe in the eye test.

My eye test is our offense won't change and no way we shoot 22 threes a game. I've always said we need to shoot 25 a game, so I would be thrilled with 22. I'm guessing we will be in the high teens. 

We didn't bring back Mgbako and pay a boatload to get Carlyle and Rice to run the same offense. Signing Ballo who isn't a high usage big like TJD or Ware further reinforces this notion. 

[Feathery 4,005]

1 minute ago, AH1971 said:

We didn't bring back Mgbako and pay a boatload to get Carlyle and Rice to run the same offense. Signing Ballo who isn't a high usage big like TJD or Ware further reinforces this notion. 

Yeah Mgbako will shoot more 3’s. He was already averaging shooting more than 4 3’s a game. I could see him shooting 6-7 a game. Carlyle 4.3 3 pt attempts a game. Rice averaged 3.7 attempts per game. Both Carlyle and Rice should project to shoot at least 1-2 more per game coming off their freshmen years. 
 

To contrast Cupps and Galloway were the starters last year and seem to be coming off the bench. So we shouldn’t see an increase in their 3 pt attempts. Galloway averaged 0.8 attempts from 3 last season. Cupps averaged 0.4 attempts from distance. Without any increases or decreases Carlyle and Rice averaged 6.8 more attempts than Cupps and Galloway. That isn’t bc of the offense it’s bc of ability. 
 

just the increase in attempts the new backcourt is bringing in, IU should increase from 15 attempts a game from last season to 21.8 attempts a game. That doesn’t include any increase from Mgbako.